Boyz will be Boyz

[Judge]

Biscuit, on a guess I'd say that I'm older than you are. One of the careers I've had in life was Military Intelligence. Not the goofy fictional stuff, but the actual thing. I'd also say that I have more medals than your father does, presuming he ever served.

Insofar as reasonable and intelligent forum claims are concerned, you were cheering on a user who was actively cursing me (who I certainly had never said a word to prior). Check out the first page for the fun +++INQUISITION ATED MAH BABY+++ edits a mod threw in.

You claim to understand the importance of mathematics in a game that's almost entirely based on odds, but with the same breath go on to dismiss it. If you do understand the limited value that mathematics have, then you should appreciate such instead of casually dismissing the whole because it takes experience to account for the fudge factors of random terrain and tactics. I've been playing 40k since 2nd edition. One of my regular opponents has been playing since Rogue Trader (has a rather nice Squat army of OOP models). You assume that I don't apply any experience. You assume that I don't know what I'm talking about, and because of these assumptions, you dismiss out of hand much of what I wrote without looking closely at it.

Slugga Boyz are an exceptional value with Toughness 4, 5+ cover saves and 3 regular attacks thrown in. By exceptional, I mean that Fire Warriors, Tac Squads, Termagaunts, Hormagaunts, Necron Warriors, Genestealers and Assault Marines don't measure up well pound for pound. Embedded characters are made even more powerful given this enhanced screen to hide in - how many Striking Scorpions with Exarch (Scorpion Fist is only Str 6 now, btw) can you get for the same point investment? Not many.

Perhaps you've dealt with hordes before. I certainly have. This horde stands out, and perhaps if you'd stopped to consider this, you could've evidenced some of this forum's vaunted intelligence, reasonableness and kindness instead of ignorantly dismissing an argument out of hand and griping at others you think have griped at you first.

Squirrel, I'm a teatotaller. Care for a Gatorade? I also like loads of dice, which's part of why I listed this "boring" army. Think, against a Tyranid assault army, you might find yourself getting assaulted and rolling 540 to hit dice on the defense! The thing about tactics is that there's a time for maneuver, and a time for blunt force trauma. I'm finding it a little hard to justify the 5th edition armour buff, and I've noticed that army builds both I and my opponents are fielding are becoming ridiculously armour heavy (sort of like the build you posted, but with anti-armour focus instead of anti-troop. Honestly, why bother with anti-troop when vehicles are generally stronger, and thus more likely to be fielded?). For that exact reason a list like the Boyz I posted is potentially devastating (and that's the point of this thread). Just imagine what they'd do to that 3+ armour save Monstrous Creature army I'd said one might counter yours with.

Here I post this beautiful anti-anti-armour list, and nobody even recognizes it, let alone appreciates. I'm quite put out.

[Melissia]

Don't push it, Judge. The thread is already on watch from BigRed.

[Judge]

You're pushing it by saying that, Melissia. Do you really not see that?

[Squirrel_Fish]

- You're lowballing your flamer hits from the Furiosas. Intentional to ensure targets to charge?
- Again addressing your "all comers" claim, your posted list is, ironically, incredible vulnerable to opposing mechanized lists. Even if you know you're fighting Orks, two Mek Boy HQs allow 5 Deff Dreads in the Ork army (two of which being their Troop choices), against which you'd have a Librarian, a single Melta Gun, and two very hopeful Assault Cannons.

- The low amount of Flamer hits is to guarantee that I wouldn't put that squad out of assault range.
- My list has the following weapons to deal with armor - 6 Autocannons, 5 Twin-Linked Assault Cannons, 3 Meltaguns (remember the ones built into the Furioso's...). AV 14 presents a huge problem for me, Land Raider Spam or Monoliths are rough (well, against Necrons i'd just focus on Phase Out), meaning that when Land Raiders have to die, I have to coordinate particularly well with Melta-fire. The assault cannon is a highly overrated weapon, but I find that I like the flexibility and reliability of twin-linking it, allowing me to shoot at armor and infantry with reasonable effectiveness either way.

Squirrel, I'm a teatotaller. Care for a Gatorade? I also like loads of dice, which's part of why I listed this "boring" army. Think, against a Tyranid assault army, you might find yourself getting assaulted and rolling 540 to hit dice on the defense! The thing about tactics is that there's a time for maneuver, and a time for blunt force trauma. I'm finding it a little hard to justify the 5th edition armour buff, and I've noticed that army builds both I and my opponents are fielding are becoming ridiculously armour heavy (sort of like the build you posted, but with anti-armour focus instead of anti-troop. Honestly, why bother with anti-troop when vehicles are generally stronger, and thus more likely to be fielded?). For that exact reason a list like the Boyz I posted is potentially devastating (and that's the point of this thread).

Here I post this beautiful anti-anti-armour list, and nobody even recognizes it, let alone appreciates. I'm quite put out.

Cranberry juice for me, then. By the way, it was never my intention to make it look like I just hopped onto the 5th edition Mechanized bandwagon because. I just like me some tanks (whether flying or treaded).

I thought that the whole paper to the rock to the scissors thing (tanks > horde > anti-tank > tanks etc) was implied and already well-recognized by most people. Against the usual metagame army-list built to deal with Armor or MC's, this army will gobble them up and leave nothing but bones. If you wanted a pat on the back, there you go.

If I played against this list (or played with this list, even) once or twice, I'm sure I'd have a blast. But I think I'd get bored of it very quickly afterwards. Using Shootas over Sluggas in a two Mobs would be interesting, however....

[Melissia]

If politely reminding you of the mod's warning is itself inflammatory, then I doubt anything I say isn't.

[Judge]

Don't push it

isn't even remotely polite, Melissia. Please don't call your action something it isn't, as I have a hard time holding my tongue around hypocrisy.

Squirrel, I've just noticed that the balance of tank > hord > anti-tank > tank has shifted so that rock beats paper. Take IG for example - how long would it take an IG lascannon team to kill a single Basilisk versus how long would it take for the reverse? How about a Battle Tank? 4 IG lascannons have an 11% chance per round to blow a Lemun Russ Battle Tank, but the reverse isn't true at all, even if it misses a lot.

How about Space Wolves Long Fangs? 3 Lascannons (ignoring the cost of the sergeant for a moment) would have a 22% chance per round of blowing a Vindicator and cost 5 points more. Rocket launchers are nicely cheap, but have limited impact on the heavier armours, and those Dreads you listed? Why would anyone take terrestial heavy weapons when a Furiosa could land on top of them and blast them to bits?

Terminators? Many Dreads cost no more than 3 Termis (I'd rather have the Dreads). Sure, there are always melta weapons, but what do you load melta vets into? A tank (counting transports).

Dark Eldar, I must say, have the problem a little more under control. 3rd edition codexes in general offer some decent anti-armour shooting options. These are the armies that get eaten by 5th edition melee, though, and let's not forget the Dark Eldar are next on the chopping block!

Anyway, I enjoy running the simulated battles, since they're not too far off of real battles save for fewer rules checks and at least one less unwashed body. Just posting the results here for general benefit, just in case anyone else thinks these are interesting too. And snarkiness for snarkiness, of course.

[Tynskel]

As part of my PhD, I work on climate simulation modeling. Crazy crazy stuff- when I finish (years from now!) the model that I will be running will take almost a full year to execute.

Here's the thing about all this math math math:
There are many other factors involved- things that effect how the math equations are used.
Losing LOS takes equations out, being cover applies new equations, placement of units in different locations cause orders of operations.

The problem with the math hypothesis:
No data.
Computer models are completely WORTHLESS without some ground truth. In fact, there is no point to modeling unless you already have an idea of the outcome. The models I work with in climate science are painstakenly designed to incorporate checks against actual data-- CO2 ratios, plant matter, known global events. If the model doesn't match these things, it is worthless!

These math models of Warhammer are not theorizing- these are just running a bunch of table of numbers--- without realistic boundary conditions.

A better way apply the math is to use the simple equations with simple problems.
Ex.
Space Marines using Lascannon vs Twin-linked Assault Cannon against armor 14.
4 (shots)*.888 (to hit)*1/6*1/3(to pen)= 0.197 Pens
1 (shots)*2/3 (to hit)*1/6(to Pen) = 0.111 Pens
The Assault Cannon is better.

If you expand the simple equations to more complex problems, you need a series of constraints to give you a predictable result.
Ex.
Baal Predator (hv bolter sponsons) Vs Destructor w/Lascannon Sponsons against armor 14
145 point tank vs 135 point tank
4 (shots)*.888 (to hit)*1/6*1/3(to pen)= 0.197 Pens
2 (shots)*2/3 (to hit)*1/6(to Pen) = 0.222 Pens
Now the Lascannons are a better choice.

I used the point values as a baseline for comparison, types of firepower, and a specific target.
I can expand this complex situation for all armor values (which is just a series of individual equations).
Look at how complicated the situation gets:
To compare the Baal vs the Destructor, against all armor I need: 10 equations.

Note that I do not consider armor facing, terrain, ect. These are first order equations, and can realistically applied on first order problems.

But, what I cannot do is apply this math to a full game or even a turn. There are simply just too many factors involved to try to model this correctly- we are talking about the Destructor have 5 equations for shooting armor, not including LOS, and Cover. You would need to know the boundary conditions: terrain, placement, point values, armor values, ect, ect--- way too complicated. Now factor in that EVERY unit has probably ~10 equations (probably more) associated with them. (just look at the first post- there must be ~30 units: 300 equations!!!) So many boundary conditions that it becomes futile to even bother. Second, with so many factors involved, you would need to run the model many times to reach a steady state in which the results can be statistically analyzed for trends. With so many factors, we are talking about 100s of iterations (perhaps even thousands).

This just gets redonkulous. You might as well develop a computer game and get paid for it-- you'll need the venture funds for amount of time spent programming.

Essentially, the math becomes a reference tool for the 'in-game' decision making. You break down the individual turn to a series of instantaneous probabilities, and make your decisions for what to shoot (although, this is something I wouldn't recommend using all the time unless you are training for a tournament-- kinda takes away from the fun of the game).

[Judge]

Come on now, Tynskel. How many people spend how many hours playing this ridiculous game? Of course we collectively have the time to spend programming in however many variables we please.

Now, which would you rather field for general use: Eldar Jetbikes, or a Farseer? Well, they're qualitatively different. You'd be comparing apples to oranges. There are viable scenarios for either to prove functional, and insufficient data to be sure which you'll face until the moment's upon you.

You'd also field the Farseer.

How did your mind make a rational decision on which to choose? Based on no data? Pure guesswork? Intuition? Your gut? Maybe you might've looked at comparative point costs, statlines and abilities between apples and apples in another faction (Jetbikes and Assault Marines, for example)? Wait, that sounds suspiciously like math was involved (BS 4 - BS 3 = 1 free BS!).

Off the top of your head, list every conceived scenario wherein a Jetbikes unique capabilities might win the day versus those where a Farseer would prove more viable. Assign weighted probabilities. Make a sound internal determination concerning which to field. Took you about five seconds. You made reasonable assumptions.

Now, say that your mind's not certain how to weigh certain assumptions. Is an assault marine more effective in melee than a Death Company marine? We're not addressing mobility here, but a single, isolated set of probabilities against an isolated set of reasonably anticipated opponents.

If two people get into a violent confrontation, who's going to win? There are certainly too many variables to cleanly decide until it's over, but smart money goes with the big guy. Sometimes the big guy loses. Is the decision to go with the big guy based upon past experience, or an instantaneous generalized calculation of relative mass?

Experience is a collection of datasets. Datasets have no meaning absent a frame of reference. No one's trying to conclusively establish every conceivable scenerio for every possible combination of unit interactions on every possible configuration of terrain (although if you assigned limiting factors to table size and terrain - 1" increments? - then it's possible, as the number of data points are finite). We're not that bored. We are offering differing frames of reference which will collaborate with different sets of experience differently and then mesh to form a more complete (albeit still greatly limited) picture than we started out with. Predicting a complete set of outcomes for any given match from start to finish may be more trouble than it's worth, but you can get a better "feel" for where your best performance is coming from if you do have a better "reference tool for the in-game decision making" in advance of the game.

[DarkLink]

If politely reminding you of the mod's warning is itself inflammatory, then I doubt anything I say isn't.

I even copied and pasted some of the forum rules about being courteous for his benefit over on the boys will be boys thread, since it sounded like he'd never read them.

As part of my PhD, I work on climate simulation modeling. Crazy crazy stuff- when I finish (years from now!) the model that I will be running will take almost a full year to execute.

Here's the thing about all this math math math:
There are many other factors involved- things that effect how the math equations are used.
Losing LOS takes equations out, being cover applies new equations, placement of units in different locations cause orders of operations.

The problem with the math hypothesis:
No data.
Computer models are completely WORTHLESS without some ground truth. In fact, there is no point to modeling unless you already have an idea of the outcome. The models I work with in climate science are painstakenly designed to incorporate checks against actual data-- CO2 ratios, plant matter, known global events. If the model doesn't match these things, it is worthless!

These math models of Warhammer are not theorizing- these are just running a bunch of table of numbers--- without realistic boundary conditions.

A better way apply the math is to use the simple equations with simple problems.
Ex.
Space Marines using Lascannon vs Twin-linked Assault Cannon against armor 14.
4 (shots)*.888 (to hit)*1/6*1/3(to pen)= 0.197 Pens
1 (shots)*2/3 (to hit)*1/6(to Pen) = 0.111 Pens
The Assault Cannon is better.

If you expand the simple equations to more complex problems, you need a series of constraints to give you a predictable result.
Ex.
Baal Predator (hv bolter sponsons) Vs Destructor w/Lascannon Sponsons against armor 14
145 point tank vs 135 point tank
4 (shots)*.888 (to hit)*1/6*1/3(to pen)= 0.197 Pens
2 (shots)*2/3 (to hit)*1/6(to Pen) = 0.222 Pens
Now the Lascannons are a better choice.

I used the point values as a baseline for comparison, types of firepower, and a specific target.
I can expand this complex situation for all armor values (which is just a series of individual equations).
Look at how complicated the situation gets:
To compare the Baal vs the Destructor, against all armor I need: 10 equations.

Note that I do not consider armor facing, terrain, ect. These are first order equations, and can realistically applied on first order problems.

But, what I cannot do is apply this math to a full game or even a turn. There are simply just too many factors involved to try to model this correctly- we are talking about the Destructor have 5 equations for shooting armor, not including LOS, and Cover. You would need to know the boundary conditions: terrain, placement, point values, armor values, ect, ect--- way too complicated. Now factor in that EVERY unit has probably ~10 equations (probably more) associated with them. (just look at the first post- there must be ~30 units: 300 equations!!!) So many boundary conditions that it becomes futile to even bother. Second, with so many factors involved, you would need to run the model many times to reach a steady state in which the results can be statistically analyzed for trends. With so many factors, we are talking about 100s of iterations (perhaps even thousands).

This just gets redonkulous. You might as well develop a computer game and get paid for it-- you'll need the venture funds for amount of time spent programming.

Essentially, the math becomes a reference tool for the 'in-game' decision making. You break down the individual turn to a series of instantaneous probabilities, and make your decisions for what to shoot (although, this is something I wouldn't recommend using all the time unless you are training for a tournament-- kinda takes away from the fun of the game).

Quite well put.

[Aims]

Okay, people. Let's all take a step back here and chill, hmm? While the spirit of debate is good in and of itself, the constant need to prove each other to be less intelligent is pushing the bounds of the forum rules. Melissia is correct that this thread is being watched, and not just by Bigred. Keep it cool. Keep it civil.

There's a rule that I'm sure most people's mothers have taught them at some point, and to quote Disney's Bambi, "If you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all." If you find that you need to continue the arguing about the other person's intelligence or lack of understanding of the point you were attempting to make in the first place, please take it to PM or off the forum for further discussion.

Final warning, people. The Oubliette tends to eat things and not let them come back out again. It's sorta like the Eye of Terror, but meaner.