Should I stay or should I go now? - The EU Referendum Thread

[grimmas]

Actually it's the EU that's trying to rush it actually the actually MPS in the Leave camp are the ones taking it slowly.

Also all the name calling, condescension and claiming of intellectual superiority is exactly what stopped people listening to Remain in the first place. Seriously go and read the articles about it in the Guardian and the FT about it they're still condescending but at least they've realised they've got it wrong.

[Al Shut]

Actually it's the EU that's trying to rush it actually the actually MPS in the Leave camp are the ones taking it slowly.

Don't they also have to sort out the whole Scotland and/or Northern Ireland thing before they can start leaving?

[Morgrim]

The museum here just finished an exhibit of a collection borrowed from the British museum. The head of the museum commented last night that the timing was very fortunate, because it was here due to a set of international agreements spearheaded by the EU, and they're no longer sure of the insurance and transportation issues* given that the British Museum of Natural History is no longer going to be falling under them.


*a lot of interesting stuff in museums falls foul of customs and quarantine laws, so you need special agreements saying that they get exemptions. Overzealous customs agents have destroyed irreplaceable artefacts before insisting on following things by the book. Given that checking incoming items is a security priority for every country, said agreements are very high level and generally either each piece or each subsection of a collection has to be accompanied by a declaration signed by one of a list of recognised ministers. So we'll need to get Britain explicitly put back on that list, rather than "the whicheveroneitis of a EU country", and until then getting collections to or from the UK is going to be an utter pest. Thank Gaia we're returning their stuff to them, so we're the ones doing the paperwork this time.

[grimmas]

Don't they also have to sort out the whole Scotland and/or Northern Ireland thing before they can start leaving?

Well NI would become part of Eire so I don't think that'd be too much of an issue. Scotland on the other hand may be a bit trickier as it would become an independent country and one that isn't a memeber of the EU (I believe that membership is for the UK) but I'd agree that's something that'd need sorting out*

I'd also add that if the rest of EU leaders had behaved like the Germans I'd doubt very much we'd be having this conversation

* of course their departure is not a sure thing for either of them.

[Mr Mystery]

Just read an interesting comment from the Grauniad...

Basically, it's an argue net that David Cameron stepping down is because actually invoking Article 50 is a poisoned chalice - especially as he'd promised to hit it as soon as a Leave outcome was confirmed.

Which of course, he didn't. Whoever succeeds him is now sitting on a potential 'political career self-destruct'....

From the guardians comments section:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

[Kirsten]

I noticed that about Boris yesterday, he was acting like a Remain leader, he seemed deflated, talking about the benefits of young people having access to Europe, you would hardly guess he had campaigned to leave.

[Charon]

We have to enact article 50 not the other way round it's our governments decision not there's.

That is correct (and I actually wrote that) but Cameron did not. And I think he did not for a reason. Who ever invokes article 50 is done. Completely and irreversible. Political suicide.
And as long as nobody of your Gov. does it, the EU prepares to get your *** kicked out as fast as possible.
As a matter of fact, the faster they can handle your exit, the more damage to the EU is prevented and the more damage is done to GB.

[Cutter]

Well NI would become part of Eire so I don't think that'd be too much of an issue.

Speaking as a resident of Northern Ireland, your naivety is stunning.

[grimmas]

Speaking as a resident of Northern Ireland, your naivety is stunning.

No that's what the clause in the good Friday agreement states and that is the one which is been talked about. I'm fully aware of the possibility of sectarian trouble. But if NI votes to go that's what happens. So a mechanism is already in place for the departure of NI from the UK. It would also mean it stays in the EU which again is what is being talked about. You know context.

But I will concede it was a limited comment and apologies for the general tone I have come across as dismissive.

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That is correct (and I actually wrote that) but Cameron did not. And I think he did not for a reason. Who ever invokes article 50 is done. Completely and irreversible. Political suicide.
And as long as nobody of your Gov. does it, the EU prepares to get your *** kicked out as fast as possible.
As a matter of fact, the faster they can handle your exit, the more damage to the EU is prevented and the more damage is done to GB.

Then I'd suggest onus is on them to make an offer to speed things along then. Also there's no mechanism to kick us out and we haven't done anything that would allow for suspension of an of our rights.

[Charon]

Then I'd suggest onus is on them to make an offer to speed things along then. Also there's no mechanism to kick us out and we haven't done anything that would allow for suspension of an of our rights.

A little bit naive, don't you think?
The mechanism to kick you out is YOUR VOTERS.
EU offers a very quick exit. Your government tries to stall.
Now did they vote to exit or to stay as long as possible? The longer you stay, the weaker your Gov, appears.
"Yes we voted out but we have no backup plan and still try to stay as long as possible".

You wont receive an offer. All you get is basically a "we respect your decision and prepare to get you out as fast as possible according to your voters will, so we can make sure that you can stop paying membership fees as fast as possible"