40k Balance Meets Mephiston

[Judge]

A Short Explanation of Dice Odds:

When you roll a 6 sided die, the odds of every outcome are equal - 1/6.
When you roll two 6 sided dice, the odds of every outcome are equal - 1/36 - but the odds of any given total are not.

Example: The odds of rolling a total of 2 are 1/36 - 1/6 for a 1 * 1/6 for another 1.

As your totals move from extremes (2 or 12) to center (7), odds of your total occurring increase.

Example: The odds of rolling a total of 7 are 1/6 - 1/36 odds for each a 1 and a 6, 2 and 5, 3 and 4, 4 and 3, 5 and 2, 6 and 1. Add the likelihood of each individual result together for 1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36 +1/36 +1/36 + 1/36. Your total will be 6/36 or 1/6.

The odds of each number total on 2d6 are as follows:
2: 1/36
3: 2/36 (1/18)
4: 3/36 (1/12)
5: 4/36 (1/8)
6: 5/36 (1/7.2)
7: 6/36 (1/6)
8: 5/36 (1/7.2)
9: 4/36 (1/8)
10: 3/36 (1/12)
11: 2/36 (1/18)
12: 1/36

To find the odds of scoring a range (equal to and under a leadership of 7, for example), sum all odds from 7 to 2. 6/36 + 5/36 + 4/36 + 3/36 + 2/36 + 1/36 = 21/36, 7/12, or 58.3%. The odds of a 6 or less would therefore be 15/36, 5/12, or 41.7%.


Assumptions:

All Other Things Being Equal
(No outside interference from unlisted squads. If you have free squads to jump in, then so does your opponent, especially if his army all has jumpacks).
Absent Psychic Interference, Psychic Tests Pass
(1/12 chances to fail do add up, but no single battle listed here will last long enough for that to be likely).
Derivatives Only
(To avoid listing actual unit statlines, only results from comparative statlines will be listed).
Cost Percentages Indicate Relative Unit Costs
(Mephiston cost / Opponent cost. The lower the percentage, the less relatively expensive Mephiston is. The higher, the higher. In most scenarios, a cost ratio range of .95 - 1.05 will be aimed for. The first match is a noteworthy exception).
No Charge
(Mephiston is more likely to be the charger due to size, fleet and jump abilities).
No Shooting
(Given a 17"-24" potential assault range and tiny model size [facilitating easy hiding], Mephiston should be able to avoid getting shot by hiding behind terrain / allied squads to directly block LoS. A more likely scenario that Mephiston will get to shoot his pistol before assaulting will also be discounted, but should be remembered, as per the No Charge and Psychic Tests Pass assumptions).
No Transfixing Gaze Unless It Significantly Effects The Outcome
(Transfixing Gaze will be used the first match to show why. It can strongly impact fighting, but is simply unecessary in most of the cases listed).
Mephiston Will Not Use Unleash Rage
(The Sanguine Sword psychic ability may be used at the start of either player's assault phase to effect close combat attacks made that round, thus additional psychic uses per round will be reserved. Practically speaking, Unleash Rage would become available in the second turn for the third round of combat, but will not be used here unless otherwise noted for reasons soon to be apparent).
51% = Oblivion
(The battle ends when there's a >50% chance of the last unit losing its last wound).

Mephiston Vs. Nightbringer

Round 1:

Nightbringer uses Etheric Tempest. No effect.
Mephiston uses Transfixing Gaze. 58.3% chance of success.

If Transfixing Gaze succeeds.
Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston stikes. 4.45 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 3.71 wounds.
Nightbringer saves. 1.86 wounds taken.
Force weapon passes. Nightbringer dies.
Mephiston wins. Wounds remaining: 5/5.

If Transfixing Gaze fails.
Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.78 wounds.
Nightbringer saves. 1.39 wounds taken.
Force weapon passes. Nightbringer dies.
Mephiston wins. Wounds remaining: 5/5.

Cost Percentage = 69%

Mephiston vs. 2 Avatars

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 2.5 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.08 wounds.
Avatars save. 1.04 wounds taken.
1 Avatar dies.
Avatar strikes. 2.67 hits.
Avatar wounds. 1.34 wounds.
Mephiston cannot save. 1.34 wounds taken.

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 2.5 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.08 wounds.
Avatar saves. 1.04 wounds taken.
Avatar dies.
Mephiston wins. Wounds remaining: 4/5.

Cost Percentage = 81%

Mephiston vs. 3 Wraithlords w. Wraithswords

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.78 wounds.
1 Wraithlord dies, 1 takes 1.78 wounds.
Wraithlords strike. 3 hits.
Wraithlords wound. 2.5 wounds.

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.78 wounds.
2 Wraithlords die.
Mephiston wins. 2.5/5 wounds remaining.

Cost Percentage: 83%

Mephiston vs. Trygon Prime

Additional Assumptions: No Psychic Powers because of Shadow in the Warp. If attempted, each use has a 50% chance of success. Odds of Perils of the Warp for each use: 1/6. Please note that Transfixing Gaze is not a Psychic Power and uses a Leadership test - not morale - so Synapse would not apply, but also not used in this scenario because it's not necessary. If used, Mephiston would likely win at the top of Round 3 with 2 wounds remaining. If psychic powers were used, Mephiston would likely win in Round 1 with 5 wounds remaining. This fight illustrates the nature of Mephiston's raw stats without enhancement.

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 1.67 wounds.
Trygon Prime strikes. 3 hits.
Trygon Prime wounds. 1.5 wounds.

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 1.67 wounds.
Trygon Prime strikes. 3 hits.
Trygon Prime wounds. 1.5 wounds.

Round 3:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 1.67 wounds.
Trygon Prime strikes. 3 hits.
Trygon Prime wounds. 1.5 wounds.

Round 4:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 1.67 wounds.
Mephiston wins. Wounds remaining: 0.5/5

Cost Percentage: 104%

Mephiston vs. Swarmlord

If Transfixing Gaze and Sanguine Sword both succeed. 29% chance.

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.75 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 3.65 wounds.
Swarmlord saves. 1.83 wounds.
92% chance of Force Weapon check succeeding. Swarmlord dies.
Mephiston wins.

If Transfixing Gaze succeeds and Sanguine Sword fails. 29% chance.

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.75 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.81 wounds.
Swarmlord saves. 1.41 wounds.
71% chance of Force Weapon check succeeding. Swarmlord dies.
Mephiston wins.

If Transfixing Gaze fails and Sanguine Sword succeeds. 21% chance.

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 2.5 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.08 wounds.
Swarmlord saves. 1.04 wounds.
52% chance of Force Weapon check succeeding. Swarmlord dies.
Mephiston wins.

If Transfixing Gaze and Sanguine Sword both fail. 21% chance

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 2.5 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 1.25 wounds.
Swarmlord saves. .63 wounds taken.
32% chance of Force Weapon check succeeding. Swarmlord lives.
Swarmlord strikes. 2.67 hits.
Swarmlord wounds. 1.34 wounds.
Mephiston dies.
Swarmlord wins.

79% of scenarios result in Mephiston's win with 5/5 wounds remaining. Weighted odds of Mephiston scoring the killing blow are 65%. If Mephiston does not score the first killing blow, it is likely, but not certain, that the Swarmlord will kill Mephiston at the bottom of the first round of combat.

Cost Percentage: 89%

Mephiston vs. 2 Death Company Dreadnaughts

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston damages. 2.22 Penetrating hits. .56 Glancing hits.
1 Dreadnaught Destroyed.
Dreadnaught strikes. 2 hits.
Dreadnaught wounds. 1.67 wounds.

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston damages. 2.22 Penetrating hits. .56 Glancing hits.
Dreadnaught Immobilized/Weapon Destroyed/Shaken/Stunned.
Dreadnaught strikes. 2 hits.
Dreadnaught wounds. 1.67 wounds.

Round 3:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston damages. 2.22 Penetrating hits. .56 Glancing hits.
Dreadnaught Destroyed.
Mephiston wins. 2/5 wounds remaining.

Cost Percentage: 100%


Mephiston vs. Abaddon the Despoiler

Additional Assumptions: Due to initial errors on my part, this scenario has been rerun. My apologies. However, due to nitpicking, Mephiston will use the full range of his abilities (as will Abaddon), to include fleet moving for the charge. If you want to presume that Abaddon gets a round of shooting off first (and Mephiston doesn't), subtract 0.03 wounds from Mephiston.

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Transfix Gaze, Sanguine Sword succeed.
Mephiston strikes. 6 attacks (/2)
Reroll misses (3/2)
Mephiston wounds (4.5*5/6)
Reroll failed wounds (.75*5/6)
4.37 wounds
Abaddon saves (4.37/2)
2.19 wounds taken. (1.81 remaining).
Abaddon's initiative.
Daemon weapon yields 3.5 extra attacks, no daemon attack. 7.5 attacks total.
Abaddon strikes. 7.5 attacks (/2)
Abaddon wounds (3.75*5/6)
Reroll failed wounds (.63*5/6)
3.65 wounds (1.35 remaining).

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Transfix Gaze fails, Sanguine Sword succeeds, Unleash Rage succeeds.
Mephiston strikes. 5 attacks (/2)
Reroll misses (2.5/2)
Mephiston wounds (3.75*5/6)
3.13 wounds
Abaddon saves (3.65/2)
1.57 wounds taken. (0.24 remaining).
Abaddon dies.

Mephiston wins. 1.35/5 wounds remaining.
Cost Percentage: 91%

Mephiston vs. 11 Khorne Berzerkers

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.78 wounds.
3 Berzerkers die.
8 Khorne Berzerkers strike. 12 hits.
8 Khorne Berzerkers wound. 2 wounds.
Mephiston saves. .33 wounds.

Round 2:
Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.78 wounds.
3 Berzerkers die.
5 Khorne Berzerkers strike. 7.5 hits.
5 Khorne Berzerkers wound. 1.25 wounds.
Mephiston saves. .21 wounds.

Round 3:
Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.78 wounds.
2 Berzerkers die.
3 Khorne Berzerkers strike. 4.5 hits.
3 Khorne Berzerkers wound. .75 wounds.
Mephiston saves. .13 wounds.

Round 4:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.78 wounds.
3 Berzerkers die.
Mephiston wins. 4/5 wounds remaining.

Cost Percentage: 108%

Mephiston vs. Logan Grimnar

Additional Assumptions: The Axe of Morkai will be used as a powerfist. Logan will use Living Legend in the first round of combat.
Note: Sanguine Sword does not effect Logan directly, thus it is not negated by Wolf-Tail Talisman, but has no pratical effect against this opponent either way, thus Unleash Rage will be used instead.

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 4.45 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 3.71 wounds.
Logan saves. 1.86 wounds.
Logan strikes. 3 hits.
Logan wounds. 2.5 wounds.

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 4.45 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 3.71 wounds.
Logan saves. 1.86 wounds.
Logan dies.
Mephiston wins. 2.5/5 wounds remaining.

Cost Percentage: 91%


Conclusions Based Upon Results:

1) 5th edition armies have more powerful melee than 3rd and 4th edition armies, as evidenced by relative performance of superior melee units, to such a degree that players using 3rd and 4th edition armies might well consider not playing with/against players using 5th edition armies. Note that while Mephiston kills 5th edition characters as well as 3th and 4th edition characters, he does so with greater difficulty, often receiving wounds in the process.
2) Instant Death weapon units with high initiative have a comparative advantage against units not possessing instant death weapons.
3) Mephiston's performance is not in keeping with unit cost.

So who was expecting better performance out of Abaddon? Did Nightbringer teach you nothing?

The preceding body of evidence includes many of the strongest melee models available as listed in their most recent codexes (Necrons - 3rd, Eldar, Chaos - 4th, Space Wolves, Tyranids - 5th). Orks, traditional melee specialists, were not given representation here because, lacking 3rd edition Choppa effects and given high costs for Power Klaws, there's simply no feasible way for Str 4, non-power weapon wielding, non-instant death causing Nobs and Warbosses to effectively threaten a Toughness 6, 5 wound, terminator armor wearing monstrosity, especially one with a Str 10 weapon to negate their multiple wounds. Yes, Mephiston out-stats Ghazghkull.

There are effective ways to implement "damage control" against Mephiston, the most apparently viable being:

1) The Lure. Place a tempting (but low-cost) model or unit within Mephiston's immediate assault range (17"-24"), and, after it's died in 1 round, shoot Mephiston with everything you've got. This does not address the rest of the Blood Angel army, of course, almost all of which can jump assault, Deep Strike, or ride in Fast vehicles, but other models are more manageable. Works best if you have a large squad of Fire Dragons, or... nope, that's it.

2) The Wound Sink. Assault, or provoke into being assaulted, with a high model count, low cost unit such as
Termagaunts or Ork Boyz. Do not purchase upgrades of any sort. So long as they keep passing leadership, Mephiston will only kill ~8 per combat round, ~15 per turn, effectively removing him from play at a minimal cost of 150 points for 30 gaunts. This does not address the rest of the Blood Angel army, of course, which might send moderate cost, high attack volume units such as Death Company which can wipe out a large, cheap squad in a turn.

3) The Tyranid Warrior Assassin Squad. 5th edition proved a tremendous boon to Tyranid Warriors, offering an extra wound for the same cost and giving Tyranid players access to 40 point instant death units. In a sense, they deserve a similar analysis to that provided Mephiston, but they have a weakness in the form of instant death from shooting attacks (which Mephiston is generally immune to), and lower mobility (as the dangerous ones don't have wings). A squad of 6 Warriors with 5x 2 boneswords and 1x bonesword and lash whip can effectively kill Mephiston at cost (the only unit apparently able to do so) provided the lash whip makes it into base to base contact with Mephiston on Round 1, reducing his initiative to 1. If it does not, Mephiston will kill ~3 Warriors before they get the chance to strike, and has a strong probability of surviving with 4 wounds remaining (full comparison not listed here as it heavily relies on the results of Transfixed Gaze and psychic rolls, making for a very large entry).

4) Lukas the Trickster. This ******* has 2/3 odds of taking down anything that kills him, to include, sofar as I can tell, Imperator Titans. This unit still doesn't quite match cost for cost, as, factoring in a 1/3 chance for survival, the effective point costs would be 215 for Lukas vs. 167 for Mephiston.

All four of these tactics rely heavily on your opponent being:

1) Naive.

Against a savvy Blood Angel player under the new codex, Mephiston can be held behind friendly assault units/terrain until the front lines are engaged (often by turn 2), after which Mephiston can assault pretty much anywhere he damned well pleases with a 17"-24" effective assault range.

As every 40k player knows, there's a fine tradition in the game of overpowered/underpowered units, the designation of which can change between editions, or even (Chaos) within the same edition. There is a difference between True Balance and Fiat Balance (discussed later) that doesn't always favor True and doesn't always disfavor Fiat.

Morever, there's been a long-standing explanation that armies are balanced against each other, rather than individual units - the whole can be greater, or less, than the sum of its parts. What this philosophy fails to take into account is effective nullification of army list entries. Codex Necrons is (arguably) the most "balanced" codex to date, in that both army and individual units are well in keeping both other armies and each other (or were until 5th edition), but how often are Pariahs fielded? How often do Howling Banshees prove more effective than Striking Scorpions, even against high armor targets? How often will you NOT see someone take a 250 point flying Tyranid Dreadnaught that always strikes first, usually gets rerolls to hit AND wound and, by the way, instant kills? Some units are clearly superior to others within the same army, and that's a problem because it limits variety - one of the game's strongsuits. Some units are so broken that they CRUSH OTHER BROKEN UNITS, and that's a problem because it leads to house rules like bans, which are inconsistent. "I bring three Tyranid army lists with me to games, in case two of my units are banned." Personally, I would bring nine.

Some of the older, more cynical players have suggested now and then that unit balance changes to reflect flagging sales. At the very least, Mephiston counters that rumor, as he's a single, relatively inexpensive model that's remained unchanged since 2nd (1st?) edition. I still don't want to see him every game.



Some general notes on gameplay balance:

- True Balance denotes a state of internal and external harmony, wherein every unit in every army has a role, not always called for, but equally effective when called for in proportion to risk versus reward. True balance ensures that every unit in every army list is playable, and has an opportunity to be fielded if plausable conditions are met. True Balance gets the most out of an existing rule set.
- Fiat Balance denotes a state of internal and / or external disharmony, wherein units do not offer equal return for cost and / or risk is not proportional to reward, but in which a seeming of harmony exists through ignorance. Fiat Balance is characterized by a constant shifting of which units are most / least cost effective through use of frequent rule changes. While exploitive in nature, Fiat Balance can be seen as a driving force for change, as to maintain a seeming of harmony it is necessary to create new rule sets (editions / codexes) to support a never-ending shell game of swap-the-OP-unit. Fiat Balance is often innovative, and keeps gameplay fresh.
- Broken Balance denotes a state of internal and / or external disharmony, wherein units do not offer equal return for cost and / or risk is not proportional to reward and everyone knows it. In the case of a real-time-strategy game, it could be exemplified by a single tank in a single faction that everybody builds as many of as fast as possible and then throws blindly at opponents, as the only effective counter would be to build more of the same tank and throw it the other way faster. In the case of 40k, Broken Balance might be exemplified by a 250 point flying Tyranid Dreadnaught that always strikes first, usually gets rerolls to hit AND wound and, by the way, instant kills. Broken Balance is exploitive of new / casual players, and limits game variety by limiting viable strategic / tactical options.

Many players don't notice the specifics of balance directly unless badly Broken, but experience a persistant repetition or trend that leaves a general impression that something's not quite right. Greater experience, or analysis, leads to easier victories - not through tactical application or consideration, but by building the most of the same tank - but things earned too easily are often less appreciated and can lead to cynicism. For non-casual players, gameplay's simply less interesting than it could be.

40k, for the record, generally relies on Fiat Balance, which often leads to greater "flavor," because the easiest way to achieve True Balance is to make every flavor vanilla. 3rd edition was the closest to date to True Balance. 2nd edition represented Fiat balance, leaning towards broken, and 5th edition is shaping up to be the same. (1st edition was definitely Broken, but it was all so crazy new and innovative at the time, I don't think anyone noticed).

Through experience, I can state that True Balance doesn't have to be vanilla, and that the most enjoyable flavor comes from true balance when it's not. After all, you can still change editions. You just need to plan them out a little more beforehand. For those who think that even flavorful True Balance inevitably leads to stagnation, I offer you chess. King's knight to king's bishop three. Your move.

The Flashlight Game

Here's a game I like to call the Flashlight game (based on a friend's fondness to call Imperial Guard lasguns "flashlights"). How many wounds would 100 Imperial Guardsmen firing lasguns rapid fire do to x creature?

Wraithlord
Feth you Guardsmen.

Swarmlord
200 shots
100 hits
16.7 wounds
5.6 wounds pass 3+ save.
Dead.

Mephiston
200 shots
100 hits
16.7 wounds
2.8 wounds pass 2+ save.
Still quite alive.

Generic T4 multi-wound Space Marine character in 2+ armour
200 shots
100 hits
33.3 wounds
5.6 wounds pass 2+ save.
Super dead, since how many Space Marines have 5 wounds (keeping in mind that Mephiston is a Tyranid)?

Tyranid Warriors
200 shots
100 hits
33.3 wounds
16.7 wounds pass 4+ save.
5 and a half dead Warriors.

Tyranid Gaunts
200 shots
100 hits
50 wounds
50 dead Gaunts.

The results would be the same from 100 Space Marines in Tac squads firing bolters against the Wraithlord, Swarmlord and Mephiston, but quite different against the Generic Space Marine Hero, Tyranid Warriors, and Gaunts. No shooting attack with strength under 5 or AP above 2 is going to be particularly effective against Mephiston. So, as a curiosity, how many high strength AP 3 weapons are there out there as opposed to high strength AP 2? If I shoot a Battle Cannon at a Space Marine leader, and by some miracle it doesn't bounce off of 2+ armor, I expect it to pulp his guts to mush - not give him a nosebleed while he giggles at you and says, "Now if you fire another 24 shots (that all hit) at me, I might be worried!" "You should've taken more Lemun Russ Demolishers in your army list!" "I can only have 3!!"

Mephiston vs. 1,000 point Necron Army

So this section I've added because, as a Necron player since 2nd edition who misses self-destructing scarabs, but loves the 3rd edition codex, I've got something of a vested interest until 2011 (or whenever) my new Necron Codex comes out, when Nightbringer will surely, by the new edition's standards, become a T10 W8 Eternal Warrior. The army list below will include a full Necron army I might typically field. Noteworthy in their absence will be Pariahs, who you'd think would do well against this guy (but wouldn't - run the simulation yourself!) for the simple reason that, like many Necron players, I haven't bought any of the models. Also absent will be Heavy Destroyers, which would do very well against Mephiston (provided no terrain - not at all certain), but which I don't normally field because of relative lack of utility in larger games to Monoliths, and relative danger of Phase Out in smaller to mid-sized games. Honestly, who designs their whole army around killing one (non-titan) model?

360 points - Nightbringer
180 points - Mandatory 10 man Warrior Squad
180 points - Mandatory 10 man Warrior Squad
140 points - 5 man Immortal Squad
140 points - 5 man Immortal Squad


Turn 1, Round 1 - Mephiston walks/runs into range.

Turn 1, Round 2

Warriors Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/6)
2.2 wounds (/6)
.37 wounds taken (.37 total)

Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (1.11 total)

Nightbringer Fires.
1 shot (*2/3)
.66 hits (*5/6)
.56 wounds taken (1.67 total)

Turn 2, Round 1

Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 1 total), runs, fleet assaults Nightbringer.
*See above for results (2 psychic uses, 3 total).

Turn 2, Round 2

Warriors Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/6)
2.2 wounds (/6)
.37 wounds taken (2.04 total)

Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (2.78 total)

Turn 3, Round 1

Mephiston runs, fleet assaults Warrior Group 1.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 5 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
6 attacks (*2/3)
4 hits (reroll 2 misses *2/3)
5.33 hits total (*5/6)
4.44 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
6 Necron Warriors strike.
6 attacks (/2)
3 hits (/6)
.5 wounds (/6)
.08 wounds taken. (2.86 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 4.44 wounds (/3) = 1.48 knocked down.

Turn 3, Round 2

Squads move away. .74 Warriors stand back up. Melee begins.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 7 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
5 attacks (*2/3)
3.33 hits (reroll 1.67 misses *2/3)
4.45 hits total (*5/6)
3.71 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
1 Necron Warrior strikes.
1 attack (/2)
.5 hits (/6)
.08 wounds (/6)
.01 wounds taken. (2.87 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 3.71 wounds (/3) = 1.24 knocked down.
No Warriors remain nearby. Final Warrior stays down.

Turn 4, Round 1

Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 8 total), runs, fleet assaults Warrior Group 2.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 10 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
6 attacks (*2/3)
4 hits (reroll 2 misses *2/3)
5.33 hits total (*5/6)
4.44 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
6 Necron Warriors strike.
6 attacks (/2)
3 hits (/6)
.5 wounds (/6)
.08 wounds taken. (2.95 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 4.44 wounds (/3) = 1.48 knocked down.

Turn 4, Round 2

Squads move away. .74 Warriors stand back up. Melee begins.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 12 total).
Pyschic power Unleash Rage fails!
Mephiston gains the initiative.
5 attacks (*2/3)
3.33 hits (*5/6)
2.78 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
2 Necron Warriors strike.
2 attacks (/2)
1 hit (/6)
.17 wounds (/6)
.03 wounds taken. (2.98 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 2.78 wounds (/3) = .93 knocked down.

Turn 5, Round 1
Mephiston uses no psychic powers.
Mephiston gains the initiative.
5 attacks (*2/3)
3.33 hits (*2/3)
2.78 wounds. Remaining warriors are knocked down.
No Warriors remain nearby. Final Warrior stays down. Mephiston makes Sweeping Advance towards nearest Immortal Squad.

Turn 5, Round 2
Immortal Squads move to max range.
Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (3.72 total)

Turn 6, Round 1
Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 13 total), runs.

Turn 6, Round 2
Immortal Squads move, one away, one towards.
Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (4.46 total)

Turn 7, Round 1
Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 14 total), runs, fleet assaults Immortal Group 1.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 16 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
6 attacks (*2/3)
4 hits (reroll 2 misses *2/3)
5.33 hits total (*5/6)
4.44 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
1 Necron Immortal strikes.
1 attack (/2)
.5 hits (/6)
.08 wounds (/6)
.01 wounds taken (4.47 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 4.44 wounds (/3) = 1.48 knocked down.
No Immortals remain nearby. Final Immortal stays down.

Necrons Phase Out.

Mephiston wins. Wounds remaining: .53/5

Now, I'm not quite certain what I expected to happen when I set this scenario up (something very like this, probably), but this is horse poo. Whoever's about to say it, you're right - with 16 psychic powers used, there are excellent odds of a Perils of the Warp attack coming up. The odds of double 1s are 1/36, and the odds of double 6s are 1/36, making the odds of either 1/18 with each roll. The magic number wasn't quite reached, though, so it didn't occur in this simulation. Between it and the just over 50% odds of a wound being left, there's an excellent case for Mephiston going down towards the end. That being said, I did presume that our Necron player would be skilled/fortunate enough to get two final rounds of shooting in with the Immortals instead of one, thinking it likely that a competent player would get them the Hell out of assault range. There were no Heavy Destroyers, as I typically don't field any in games that size, but neither was there any terrain. Also, had Heavy Destroyers been fielded instead of Immortals, then Phase Out would've occured the start of the Necron turn after the 19th Warrior went down instead of the third Immortal.

[Gotthammer]

A couple of thoughts:

3 Wraithlords - as they aren't a unit to kill multiples in one turn Meph would need to allocate attacks seperately, making killing each harder due to lowering #s of hits against each etc.

2 DC Dreads - he destroys each one automatically? DCDs are especially tricky as they ignore shaken/stunned, so only there is a whole nother realm of variables there - there's as much chance to do nothing with a pen hit as there is to destroy or to damage.

But overall a very interesting analysis of how he does.

[Lerra]

It's difficult to make a fair comparison between Independent Characters and single models who can't protect themselves from shooting.

I've only played against Mephiston once, but he never hit my front lines. I just shot him with a bit of AP2 weaponry and he fell over.

[Judge]

True enough on assigning hits. Factoring that in, one might get another round of hitting which would result in another ~0.8 wounds. Then again, there are 50 points more of Wraithlords than Mephistons in that comparison.

For the Dreads, 2.22 penetrating hits each yield a 3/6 chance of Vehicle Destroyed, discounting other results, and the .56 glancing hits yield a 1/6 chance of Vehicle Destroyed. The odds of a Dred not being destroyed by any of the above would be ~22%, so it's really not as tricky as you'd think.

[Gotthammer]

Erm, you can't destroy a vehicle on a glancing hit and a pen is only a 2/6 chance to destroy (1- shaken, 2-stunned, 3-wep destroyed, 4-immobilised, 5-wrecked, 6-explode).
His attacks aren't AP1, nor are DCDs open topped so he get no bonus to either.

Are you thinking of the 4th ed tables?

[beeny13]

mephiston's force weapon doesn't work against eternal warrior or the nightbringer.

so you have to write out the full battle for logan, abbadon, nightbringer, maybe even ghazgul.
also mephiston can use 3 powers a turn. so he will usually get the transfixing gaze bonus along with s10.

[Judge]

You're right - I was. So 1/3 chance for 2.22 Pens = ~40% chance of no destroyed Dread per round. Final equation buys one of the Dreads an extra attack round, causing a ~3 wounds total for 2 dead Dreads and 2 wounds remaining. I'll correct the main post at some point.

beeny, Nightbringer's rules leave him vulnerable to force weapons in the codex. Do you have a FAQ reference to support your claim? Force weapon was assumed not to work against Logan, as is the case with double Logan's toughness Sanguine Sword. Abaddon is not immune to instant death, and not an Eternal Warrior.

[Tynskel]

Transfixing Glare:
only works against Independent Characters--- most of your targets in this analysis will not benefit from re-roll to hit n' wound.-- Using Unleashed Rage will be important.

Also, factoring in a Sanguinary Priest is important- furious charge.

Who runs 11 Khorne Beserkers? Every time I have seen them, they are in a rhino or (rarely) a Land Raider. Max is 10. They'll also have a champion.

Against Wraithlords-- they are independent targets, and a unit can only attack one unit at a time.
Same with Dreadnoughts-- not to mention, you can only charge one at a time.

Overall, the math is completely flawed-- cannot believe one bit of this.


Mephiston vs Dreadnought
Cast: all three powers-- 1/4 chance that at least one of the powers will not cast. No Psychic Hood involved.
Assumption: all powers pass. Here's the thing- if Wings doesn't pass, you might not make it. If Sanguine Sword doesn't cast, you better have a sanguinary priest nearby- if Unleash rage doesn't pass, you don't get re-roll to hit.

6*[(2/3+2/3*1/3)] to hit*2/3 (to pen) *1/3 (to wreck) = 99% chance for destroyed Dread.
Sanguine Sword does not pass, but there is a Priest
6*[(2/3+2/3*1/3)] *1/6 (to pen) *1/3 (to wreck) = 29.6% chance to destroy
Unleashed Rage does not pass
6*2/3*2/3*1/3= 88.9% destroy.

Unless you can get the powers off, you shouldn't be throwing Mephiston at the Dread. If the thing is an Ironclad, you'll have problems! (basically anything armor 13)

In all cases you show prove that Mephiston should NEVER fight anything by himself. He should always have a backup.
I think the great backup is: Stormraven and a Furioso with Blood Talons, and Hv Flamer (maybe even a magna grapple). The Stormraven gets mephiston there, and a Furioso is a great bodyguard.


And where are you getting that a Penetration = 50% chance to destroy dread? 1/3 chance destroy- Mephiston doesn't have AP1 or plus 1 to damage table.

[isotope99]

I hate to be picky (who am I kidding, that's what these forums are for) after you've put so much work in but a couple of points:

Abaddon IS immune to instant death - Mark of Chaos ascendant,(p46 CSM codex) and is therefore one of the better anti-Meswisston choices along with Lysander, greater daemons and pretty much anyone with eternal warrior (or equivalent) and a high strength power weapon.

Also, and I hate to sound like a math professor here, but average wounds is not a great method for measuring likely kills when you have an instant death weapon because the range of results is not continuous. A better analysis would be the flat percentage chance to kill someone, although I have to admit that is a wickedly complex analysis with all the psychic power variables.

Excluding squad sergeant power fists is also not really fair as they're one of the most likely things to bring him down in CC for the average army.

Overall though I agree, the cheeselord is badass in one-on-one combat against almost anyone. If your opponent doesn't know he's coming then he's going to be hard to kill and even tougher of he's in range of a sanguinary priest (which he should be). Cover and feel no pain will allow him to take four times as many lascannon/melta gun hits.

Only time, and an army of genetically engineered atomic internet super nerds playtesting round the clock, will tell.

[DarkLink]

I do find it odd that you insist that squad power fist/claws shouldn't be included. A SM sergeant will put, what, 5/6th of a wound on Mephiston when mephiston charges them. A Nob will do slightly more damages.

It will take Mephiston maybe 3 turns to kill his way through an ork mob of 30 boyz. During those three turns, an or nob will do roughly 3 wounds on Mephiston. And a 30 boy squad with a pklaw costs just over 200pts. Not too bad. I'd say that a power klaws cost is well worth putting 3 wounds on Mephiston.

BTW, how'd a unit of GK Terminators with and embedded GK Grand Master do. Enough Terminators and mephiston won't be able to cut through them (especially if they take THSSs, even if they have the really old 4+ against a single opponent in cc shields). The GKGM will then only have to put a single wound, then force weapon Mephiston.

Note that the GKGM wouldn't be an IC until after the entire squad dies first, due to retinue rules, and that Grey Knight Force Weapons ignore Eternal Warrior.