Abaddon is going to Win (and it's all Guilliman's fault)

[Mr Mystery]

Yup!

[Chris*ta]

I still find the idea that all the Chaos Marines in the EoT are going to form up nicely and follow Abaddon on a crusade a little iffy. The various Legions had trouble working together back during the Great Crusade, only now they've had 10,000 years to divide into smaller forces, change and (literally) mutate, as well as the various gods they worship pulling different groups in different directions. Not to mention the fact that they have no real way to recruit new marines.

The Imperium has billions of troops on Cadia, as well as (presumably) a similar number in easy reach around the EoT, as well as who knows how many ships.

In addition, the [URL="http://wh40k.lexicanum.com/wiki/Astartes_Praeses"]Astartes Praeses[/URL] in place around the EoT, 18 chapters of marines which are primarily tasked with guarding the EoT. We can assume that these chapters each have reasonable fleets, as they would be required to defend against attack.

Further, remember that these forces don't have to win, they just need to delay Abaddon's forces while two things happen: 1) The real forces, Imperial Guard, Space Marine, Fleet and other can be brought to bear against Abaddon's forces, and 2) The cracks start to develop in Abaddon's forces, and they become too busy fighting amongst themselves to be able to prosecute the crusade.

[Haighus]

The fact remains any talk of reconstitution of loyalist legions is that it's is totally notional none of the forces people mention exist. What does exist is a large number of independent chapters spread over the entire galaxy. Of courses it's even worse than that as each of these chapters is actually broken down to in many cases individual companies and small which are intern scattered everywhere fight there own battles. The forming of legion style formations is against the tenants of the Codex Astartes and as such would be viewed as an act of rebellion if not ordered by the high lords of terra and they haven't.

It doesn't matter what they could do at some notional point in the future. Abaddon is ready now. The imperial forces will need time to assemble time they don't have especially when you consider that they first need to communicate the need, trough the wrap, and then assemble from a great many different points of a great distance, through the warp. Who controls the warp? They've got a problem. It doesn't matter how good the Imperial Fists are at defending or how big the Phalanx is if they're stuck In the Damocles gulf by a warpstorm. They don't sit around on Terra they move around the Galaxy. Which is also part of the issue the imperium can't afford to have a large enough force of Marines sitting around waiting for Abaddon they've got Tau, Nids, Orks, Eldar and Necrons to fight.

The Imperium has been shown to respond to sufficiently large threats very quickly indeed though- the response to the third war for Armageddon was raised in less than a year, and Armageddon doesn't have anything like the standing forces just waiting for Chaos attacks around the Cadian Gate. The Imperium ALREADY has a large force of Space Marines just waiting around. Admittedly in Chapters, which are less effective than a combined force in a straight-up fight, but then they may not need to face Abaddon in a straight up fight.
Phalanx is also stationed at Terra by standard- space combat is Abaddon's greatest weakness, and the Sol system is filled with space defenses (and it's own battle fleet).

The Warp is also has been shown not to work the way you have been describing- many planets in the Imperium are strategically important because they can't be bypassed. Horus had great command over the tides of the Warp, stranding many of his foes forces, and aiding his own, but he still had to follow stable Warp routes through the Imperium, and therefore had certain planets he was forced to attack. Cadia is the best example of this, for all Abaddon's command of the Warp, he is forced to take large forces through the Cadian gate. So Abaddon will not be able to bypass many strongholds, Cadia especially, because they are constructed in vital Warp intersections and fleets passing through these routes will come into conflict with the stronghold. Horus had to obey these routes across the Imperium, Abaddon also has to obey these routes in and around the Eye, I see no reason why Abaddon is suddenly going to have the capability to ignore an established chunk of the fluff.

A chapter is only self sufficient from its point of origin. If they aren't a space bound chapter that leaves them tied to a planet in another part of the Galaxy not very helpful when trying to fight a war elsewhere. Chapters also aren't necessarily self sufficient there's plenty of mention of chapters who lack the supplies to even survive. Chapters do not have a commonality of supply each looks after their own that is not efficient. It pretty handy if you're fighting a guerrilla style war or roaming around providing assistance to others it's not so when fighting a full scale war. Also it's not just about supplies it's also about troops and getting them where they need to be at the right time. That'll be next to impossible when you've every 1000 troops basically doing their own thing. The second founding was about limiting the power of Space Marines not increasing it.

Ok, true in terms of efficiency. It is worth considering that that makes the Chapters hard to cut off though, because rather than them all suffering when Mars is destroyed, as in the Heresy for example, they are able to look for themselves. Also, the number of fleet based Chapters is not inconsiderable, and includes some of the most powerful- Black Templars, Dark Angels, Imperial Fists (technically not fleet based, but effectively are), Minotaurs.

At the third war of Armageddon Helbrecht had less then 20000 marines under his command across the whole campaign. The battles we're talking about will have 5-10 times that many just in individual battles. The greatest battles of the Heresy had at least 20- 30 times that number. Abaddon wasn't in charge but at least he was there in a command position. With imperial forces it's hardly an absolute thing it's all about pacts, alliances and honour. The Dark Angels are likely to bugger off on their own agenda at the drop of a hat (much as they did during the Heresy) for example. Human officers don't command Space Marines they can petition them for help but that's about all. Even Macharius Solar only had that.

20,000 Marines is still a significant accumulation of force, and more importantly, the fleet to go with it was especially massive. Helbrecht's most important contribution was in the fleet action, and this is the area that the Imperium has the greatest advantage in. Also, whilst there were battles in the Great Crusade and Horus Heresy with larger Astartes forces, they were also uncommon and generally Primarch led, so Abaddon's experience in such matters, even as first captain, is not going to be great from a command perspective. Abaddon would also be unlikely to commit such vast concentrations of his troops to individual battles too, not without absolute space superiority in the system- his Astartes resources are not infinite. Large troop concentrations are too vulnerable to exterminatus, which the Imperium is willing to use in extreme situations. Also, isn't Abaddon's forces also just a collections of pacts and alliances? I see no reason why they should be any less fractious.

The Iron warriors weren't defeated by force of arms they were put back in their box by Horus after he found out that the whole thing was a power grab. The Unification Wars, Great Crusade and Horus Heresy are evidence of how Astartes (and their prototypes) are really the only force capable of securing the Galaxy.

Horus was the one to order him to withdraw, but it still remains a fact that the Imperial Army successfully prevented Perturabo from achieving his objectives on Tallarn for a significant chunk of the Horus Heresy. The Vanus temple also played an important role.

Again the war of attrition has been going on for nearly 10000 yrs and the Imperium is losing it. Abaddons 13th Crusade is going to the finishing move of that War not a continuation of it. It's the move that breaks the stalemate. It's not going to be a drawn out fight over all fronts it's going to be a concentrated push through to the ultimate objective. Remember he isn't trying to conquer the Imperium he is trying to kill the emperor.

Which is what Horus attempted to do, and even Horus with 8 Legions did not head straight to Terra after crippling 3 of the Loyalist Legions, he knew it was too tough a target.

Abaddon doesn't need to fight Russ( if he's still alive) he's got Angron for that and he's done Russ before. Of course there might be some more of the Daemon Primarchs who want a piece of Russ.

Magnus?

The Salamanders are an example of how far the Imperium has fallen. Without the Galaxy wide recruitment of the Great Crusade they've been unable to even maintain Chapter numbers let alone recover Legion strength.

Yeah, the Sallies were never a large Legion, and they have only just begun investing an 8th company for the first time in 10,000 years. They never really benefited from widespread recruitment though, especially not after discovering Nocturne- the Salamanders have and had a high geneseed rejection rate, and extremely tough selection criteria.

There's also a big difference between individual Expedition fleets gaining common experience from fighting campaigns together for a couple of decades and Chapter's developing totally different cultures over thousands of years.

I was mainly considering that many legions (Imperial Fists especially) would induct youths wholesale from recently defeated cultures as they were brought into compliance, and then use them to create entirely new companies off-the-bat. This resulted in the Imperial Fists having hugely variable individual companies, yet with an over-riding theme as determined by their geneseed, as well as the overall command of the Legion, loyalty and duty stamped into them. It is partly why the various successors of the Imperial Fists are especially varied, even initially from the 2nd and 3rd foundings.


I would like to point out that I don't think this means that Abaddon can't win, only that it is not as foregone a conclusion that he will annihilate the Imperium as you have posited in the OP.

[grimmas]

Chris*ta, they're not going to. All of the Black Legion will follow him absolutely and they are the ones that are still a Legion. All the other traitor Legion Warbands are going to tag along good the ride some may follow others will do their own thing which is fine as this will pull loyalist forces elsewhere. This will further spread them out weaking their repsonse. Abaddon has been shown to use Warbands from other Legions to do the dying so he can conserve Balck Legion forces, this is shown quite nicely in the Nightlords series, Soul Hunter I think.

[Haighus]

Chris*ta, they're not going to. All of the Black Legion will follow him absolutely and they are the ones that are still a Legion. All the other traitor Legion Warbands are going to tag along good the ride some may follow others will do their own thing which is fine as this will pull loyalist forces elsewhere. This will further spread them out weaking their repsonse. Abaddon has been shown to use Warbands from other Legions to do the dying so he can conserve Balck Legion forces, this is shown quite nicely in the Nightlords series, Soul Hunter I think.

Hmm, I thought Abaddon was near constantly fighting off challenges and destroying insidious plots against his power in particularly brutal ways- isn't this how Chaos works? The strongest leads, and they remain in charge until someone stronger comes along. At the moment, Abaddon is stronger, but if such a large scale campaign begins to run into issues, he has a lot of daggers at his back, and Chaos is nothing if not fickle.

[charliemachina]

I agree with Chris*ta

Thre will initially be total chaos.....cult uprisings, raiding forces, Daemon incursions and Chaos forces rampaging out of the Maelstrom and other chaos strongholds will initially seriously hamper the ability of Imperial Forces to rally to Terra.

Abaddon will be slowed by the Cadian Gate Planet killers or not there is a massive concentration of Marines and hardened Navy and Astra Militarum forces in this area Abaddon will struggle to break through quickly with the main body of his force still holding together as one.

The more he can be slowed the more time the slow, slow cogs of the imperial machine will begin to turn. The Navy will mass and the Navy is a power that can rival even a Astartes legion. The full force of the Astra Militarum will recruit and deploy eventually mustering enough strength to grind chaos forces into the ground one by one Astartes or otherwise as Astartes are not intended to fight battles of attrition. Even when Chaos wins local victory after local victory the Imperium can just throw more and more guard at each field on conflict.

Each Imperial Stronghold bypassed will drain momentum from the Chaos advance as it is used to co-ordinate attacks on the Chaos armies rear or drains resources through seige.....think of Leningrad in WW2.

It is inevitable that Chaos forces will fall upon each other as the momentum of the Chaos advance begins to slow.

It will be a awesome story and there will be many unknown forces at work.....ultimately despite the current state of the imperium.....the power of a Astartes Legion........the comparative weekness of human forces......the only question will be CAN ABBADDON BREAK THE EMPERORS PALACE BEFORE THE FULL FORCE OF THE IMPERIUM IS BROUGHT TO BEAR......the answer to this question is what we are all desperate to find out.

All very exciting.

[Psychosplodge]

In addition, the [URL="http://wh40k.lexicanum.com/wiki/Astartes_Praeses"]Astartes Praeses[/URL] in place around the EoT, 18 chapters of marines which are primarily tasked with guarding the EoT. We can assume that these chapters each have reasonable fleets, as they would be required to defend against attack.

Didn't a large portion of those fall to chaos?

[Haighus]

The Astartes Praeses are eighteen Space Marine Chapters whose main task is to guard the frontiers of the Eye of Terror. The brotherhood was originally founded with twenty chapters, but one has been destroyed and another declared excommunicatus traitorus.

According to Lexicanum.

[grimmas]

My apologies Haighus you are correct the Phalanx is in the Sol system at the moment. However it is currently the scene of a brutal battle between its custodians and an a company of Iron Warriora a battle which it isn't clear who's going to win.

That's pretty impressive of the Iron warriors who managed to get all the way to the orbit of Terra without arousing too much trouble on the way there. Admittedly they had Belakor's help but I'm sure others could get similar assistance. It is the sort of thing I was talking about the Traitor Legion Warbands are very capable of causing serious trouble on their own which will cost the Imperium and not really effect Abaddon's forces. It might not be that helpful if it causes a large scale deployment of extra forces to the are though.

Couple this with the fact Abaddon's managed to slip past it 12 times before, including the Gothic War when he did so with a fleet bigger than that of an Imperial sector. It does beg the question of how much a barrier the Cadian Pylons actually are. Of course he does have a Planet Killer and some activated Blackstone fortresses he might just blow it up.

I know is was a little absolute in the OP but I was trying to spark a bit of discussion on the subject and going a little heavy seems to get things going 😳. I do think the Imperium Is going to find itself in serious trouble and a lot more than just losing Cadia. They're going to have to come up something better than hoping Abaddon obliges then by smashing his forces to pieces against Cadia when he doesn't really need to. It's all a bit reminiscent of France and the Maginot line.

18 Chapters sounds impressive but they're still spread across the sector and even if only 10% of the traitor remain it's still pretty small numbers to face them.

[Alaric]

Good read. Good topic Grimmas.

You are obviously a military buff so I wont make this into a "thing" or anything but I dont believe you are giving chapters their due. There is something to be said aboot driven small unit tactics. If, as you predict, Abaddon goes just to kill the Emperor, then a guerrilla war may ensue in which case the chapters may come out ahead. As you stated, legion tactics Trump chapter tactics. I dont dispute that but I would add "in a protracted war" When it comes to Wars over ideals, much like nowadays, there dont seem to be large battles anymore. If the same held true in the 41St DDay I cant see the big A cruising in and laying waste and getting bled to get out. He wants to live so I doubt he would just rush in as he would need to do, I would see him getting Cadia first. Thats his foothold, like The Beaches of Normandy, and that he will win with the tactics you hilight. No argument, Cadia is his. My.. And this isn't the right word but it will suffice, problem with legion tactics ruling the day come in on the journey to terra. I dont see legion tactics being the hammer needed to break down the gates of Terra.

Its still Guillemans fault just cuz.

Again, good read and good convo. Keep em comin!