Misjudging the Market: AOS VS Star Wars

[Caitsidhe]

I want to talk about something which has to some degree only been hinted at or talked around. One of the chief reasons given for introducing AOS is that it is supposed to help bring new blood into the community. While I could talk for pages and pages about the fact that new blood is better recruited by a thriving, active community of all ages, I will instead focus on why this has to be the greatest mistake in a long litany of mistakes regarding the current and coming market. For whatever reason, Games Workshop has decided that its older fan base are acceptable casualties. It is their clear, stated belief that the money comes from parents taking their kiddies into Games Workshop stores and going crazy. The notion of community, they apparently believe, will mystically take care of itself. The kids will find each other. Or, perhaps they don't care about community at all. Their working model might simply be to get as much as they can from each household at the start and then write them off. It is difficult to read Games Workshop because they rarely do anything based on logic that comes from outside of Games Workshop.

All that being said, there is a glaring problem with their plan. Even if I was to concede that their business model or approach would work under normal conditions (and I don't) the next ten to fifteen years of the young gaming market belongs to Star Wars. Bear in mind I'm not just talking about the games out so far which cater to that genre, but also to the explosion of them to come. AOS doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. We are literally looking at a watershed moment where a significant portion of gaming dollars is about to divert. The piece of the pie left from the youth market is going to be very small indeed and that morsel will be fought for by a much wider field. What this means is that just when Games Workshop is about to lose a significant amount of its youth market to a force beyond its capacity to cope with, they are working hard to alienate and marginalize the core, older fans. Get those old guys out of the shops to make room for the kids! That seems to be the mantra. Games Workshop has about as much chance of getting those kids in the stores with the upcoming deluge of Star Wars mania as they do of licensing any Star Wars games themselves.

Now I know I am going to come across as a hater, but that isn't my intent here. I'm pointing out a simple, pragmatic truth. I'm asking the apologists, the shills, and just the average gamer on the street to please explain to the rest of us how Games Workshop is going to compete with what is coming? Disney has even announced the construction of Star Wars Parks. Lets consider what Star Wars (and games based on it) will have:

1. A fleshed out cosmology and history that every kid to every senior knows, loves, and understands.
2. Constant advertising blitzed out at every level of pop culture.
3. An already existing, growing (thriving even) community of gamers playing in the setting already.
4. Easy options for vehicle games, miniature games, video games, yadda yadda yadda...
5. Games which will be welcomed into every single store from the largest to the smallest providing distribution to parents who don't even know where to find Games Workshop.
6. The setting has a G to PG feel which parents will always see as safe and no baggage of any kind to make them worry about sex or violence or adult themes.
7. The price point will be right.
8. The toys will already be ready to go which is great for kids who rarely have the patience or inclination to learn painting and modeling aspect.
9. Saturation will make access to a community of other kids who play as readily available as Magic the Gathering.
10. The movies will just keeping coming one a year at least.

I'm not exaggerating here. I'm stopping at ten because that always seems more than enough. How exactly is AOS going to draw in the youth? Doesn't it seem like Games Workshop should have been digging in and preparing for this day? Their base and loyalist fans are those that are older and invested. I kind of think you better find ways to get them back inside the shop. Your market is about to become a whole lot smaller.

[Mr Mystery]

Who knows?

But by the accounts of those we might reasonably expect to be informed, it's doing rather well.

[40kGamer]

I've been watching the rebirth of Star Wars with great interest. I completely agree that the Star Wars universe is well put together and has an amazing story that neutralizes the main advantage GW has over the other gaming companies. I will absolutely explode if they release a tabletop game, although the market is so small I don't know if they actually care.

As to GW's community... I think they should be entrenching themselves with their existing fan base regardless of what else looms on the horizon simply because IMO it's good business. A happy, thriving community will bring in new people with little effort from the company as people want others to join into the fun. Alienating your own fans is madness.

[nsc]

I've got a handy summary of my post in the middle and a little closing remark at the end, in bold, a little focal point--feel free to skip to the important bits, as hellboy would.

Warhammer (both 40k and Age of Sigmar) isn't a game, warhammer is a brand, the brand is about the hobby, not the game.

The aspects of the warhammer hobby include: Painting, Modeling, Lore and Gameplay.

Until there is a Starwars miniature game which appeals to painting, modeling and lore then warhammer isn't really competing with these other games. (As an aside I am aware that every form of entertainment competes with every other form of entertainment but please consider the following)

Warhammer, in either space or realms, is about your army, your squad of guys, and I've met many people who name their soldiers and I've even had people "kill off" their characters, for example when this chapter master one player had was stomped by a titan, next year there was a dreadnought sporting the old master's name.

The hobbyists who play with miniatures enjoy individualizing their models, there is no individualization to be found in star wars, no evolving storyline of your guys in battlelore, and this is not a new phenomenon so there is no doom coming, don't fret.

Warhammer from a game aspect, has never held a true monopoly, it grew up among many other war games, and it survived as a little card game named Magic grew to amazing popularity. Chess has always existed, as has Go. There will always be other games, cheaper games, more in depth games. Currently video games dominate all forms of entertainment, with the largest ones rivaling even movies. However miniature war-gaming offers something unique.

In miniature war-games there are shades of roleplaying games, of characters named with personality and reasons for existing. You may look at a force and ask "why do these skaven ally with these beastmen?" and the player has a reason. I know someone who is converting the Stormcast from the starter set to field as chaos units, he has a story detailing their corruption and fall into the ruinous powers. Similarly in 40k I've seen haphazard chaos armies fielded with little regard to point optimization, ork hordes thundering around on ramshackle trukks (even if people rightly point out that they're kill points easily earned).

You're right, Star Wars is a huge and popular ip, but the mainstream appeal of star wars isn't the lore, it isn't the background story, poll people on whether they've read any star wars novels or not if you don't believe me. Star wars represents cowboys in space, with blasters firing off in bars and laser-sword duels on metal walkways precariously overlooking certain death.

Now, you're right that other forms of entertainment dwarf even 40k, so how is GW going to draw in youth? Now, previously, fantasy armies were 2500 points, usually (depending on your club etc etc and bob's your uncle) which were usually well over 100 models which required purchasing, building, painting and transporting, before you could even play. That's a hard thing to sell someone, that you would need to put together a hundred little guys (which, previously, you've never touched), before playing. On top of that you needed the rulebook and the army book. Now for many armies (even in 40k) that's going to run you around 300-700 of your countries money just to get all the models and books.

With age of sigmar they can say "hey just get a box and a hero, and start playing with 11 figures"

Suddenly after an afternoon you've got a skirmish force that you can play with, and when you want to get something to add to them, there's no restrictions, there's no points, there's no thinking! You buy the toy that you think looks cool, or the box of toys you think that Cellestant Steve convinced to join him to fight your friend's orruks or what have you.

GW doesn't make games, because they can't compete with games. If you want to slam rank and file armies against each other why would you pick WHFB 8e or Age of Sigmar over Total War?

Board games, card games and tabletop games are something wonderful, but they're wonderful for different reasons to different people. If you want to fly star wars space ships around you won't buy age of sigmar, but if you want to paint a guy holding a hammer and then have him fight your friends swordsman, well age of sigmar is pretty great for that.

[Caitsidhe]

I want to address the organized comments of nsc. I don't think you get my point. I'm talking about youth dollars, i.e. the youth market. It doesn't matter if there ends up being a Star Wars miniature game with all aspects of the hobby. The only thing that matters is that there are only so many youth dollars to go around. AOS is supposedly an attempt to appeal to the youth market and bring new blood into the Games Workshop fold. The problem is that those youth will be otherwise occupied. They are going to be across the street. It doesn't matter what kind of Star Wars games they play only that those dollars (and the kiddies holding them) will not be there to go into Games Workshop coffers. I personally believe there will be a Star Wars game in direct competition within a few years, but that is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is that Games Workshop is pushing aside its older consumers in the theory that it will be made up by an influx of the youth market. What I am pointing out is that the youth just won't have the interest or the funds to feed both their interest in Star Wars and Games Workshop products. In that contest Games Workshop can only lose.

[Mr Mystery]

Oh don't talk such utter, utter bollocks.

Youth Dollars my hairy arse. Kids money comes from their parents. And the middle class will throw money at anything their sprog wants, especially if it keeps them quiet and out from under feet.

You've been determined to write off AoS since it was released. If you don't like it, you don't like it. Nothing wrong with that. But spouting pseudo-intellectual nonsense isn't going to validate your opinion anymore than say, shrieking at a whale.

Youth Dollars - prequels put no dent in GW's earnings. At all. Indeed, they continued to grow during it. And those films were big with the youth market - it was sad old tits living in their mother's basements that acted like they'd been personally assaulted by them.

If there was any truth to your assertion, then the unarguable behemoth that is Star Wars would see no movie maker make a family film whilst Star Wars is churning. Harry Potter wouldn't have been printed, because Tolkein still serviced that market quite nicely. Stargate would never have been commissioned because Deep Space Nine and Voyager were dominating the TV sci-if market.

[40kGamer]

Unless someone releases an actual Star Wars tabletop game I don't see the Star Wars universe having much of an impact on GW. Also games can be complementary in that one system brings people in and then they branch out to experience other systems. Still, I think Star Wars could be a serious contender with 40k as people absolutely love the universe.

[grimmas]

I think Stars Wars would ultimately have the same problem as LoTR there's only really 2 sides good and evil, light and dark. Yes you could delve into the lore and try and drag something out but that isn't what it's about. 40K background allows for all sorts of battles between all the forces with very little suspension of belief it's what makes it so engaging.

[Mr Mystery]

And there's more to it.

Many of my friends, perhaps unsurprisingly, are massive Star Wars fans. MASSIVE.

Most play X-Wing, a truly superb game. Some play Armada, a game I'm personally taking a 'wait and see' approach with, but may well take the plunge with at some point.

But hey, they're also all GW players. And not just GW, but Forgeworld. Price is not a concern, and they spend far, far more on GW stuff than on X-Wing. Indeed, I have the largest collection of X-Wing among us - two of every ship, with the odd 'just the one' exception.

For a Star Wars game to get us spending on that instead of GW? Well, it will have to be objectively a better game. And there can't be the supply issues FFG have, where it's months between releases, and even then stuff sells out stupidly quick, only to have replacements delayed.

But most of all? It has to be a game, like X-Wing, where the designers have thought beyond '**** it, it's Star Wars and it will sell'... The company has to be big enough to supply the demand, yet small enough to actually care beyond the cash flow about what a wargame can be.

[40kGamer]

I guess it depends on how they expand the universe. There's a lot of room to develop things and flesh it out. 40k is ultimately a good vs evil story as well using the D&D Chaotic/Lawful/Neutral/Good/Evil spectrum. The current allies and unbound mechanics that lets anybody play with anything requires a tremendous suspension of belief and can easily rip a person right out of the story during a game.

- - - Updated - - -

And there's more to it.

Yes sir, I think any game that brings people into the hobby is good for everyone. Most companies have fed off of GW customers for ages so it's fair play for GW to start feeding off of other companies. I still hope to see more one off games like Dreadfleet or Space Hulk come out of the studio in the future.