Should I stay or should I go now? - The EU Referendum Thread

[Mr Mystery]

Well, it's coming up fast. The biggest decision we'll make as a country, possible ever.

As ever, keep it civil, and try to keep it factual (which sadly rules out anything that comes out of Farage's mouth ever. Well, I say sadly. I mean 'thankfully' of course :p )

Me? I'll be voting 'In'.

Simply put, the Out campaign have, so far, singularly failed to suggest what the alternative might be. They suggest a certain method, have the flaws pointed out (like still having to pay in, but having no say) and then switch to another model, rinse and repeat.

Whilst Europe is far from a perfect beast, I've seen nothing to show that the UK going it alone will leave us better off - and sadly the Out campaign haven't done anything to tackle the perception that a lot of their arguments are based on racism and a lack of compassion (migrants etc - they continue to blame all ills on them, but resolutely ignore multiple studies showing Migration has a net benefit).

To reuse a phrase I've battered a lot recently - better to be at the table complaining about the food, than rifling through the bins.

The world is getting smaller. Globalisation is a very, very real thing. Britannia Rules No More. Is this really the time to leave a large bargaining group in the vague hope we might be able to get some things more to our own tastes, or is it just The Daily Mail Effect - the delusion we somehow, on our own, constitute a world power?

IMPORTANT EDIT - PLEASE READ!

With hindsight, title is possibly misleading. Should have used 'we' instead of 'I', as by dropping a song reference I may have given the impression I'm looking to be persuaded one way or the other. I'm not. I'm very much In for this one! Apologies:)

[Psychosplodge]

I'll be voting out as things stand.
Nothing should be placed above the parliamentary sovereignty* of the UK.
The utter contempt the EU showed us with the joke negotiations didn't help. The EEC was a good idea. The borderline wannabe federal superstate we are now? Not for me.

There's nothing one way or another to say which way will be better or worse off, but the idea they can predict 2030s economic forcast when they can't get a six month growth prediction, or anything else in recent memory is a joke.
There's also no point sitting at the table, playing by the rules if everyone else picks and chooses what rules to follow or seemingly re-writes them as suits.


Parliamentary sovereignty is a principle of the UK constitution. It makes Parliament the supreme legal authority in the UK, which can create or end any law. Generally, the courts cannot overrule its legislation and no Parliament can pass laws that future Parliaments cannot change.

[Mr Mystery]

Way I see it, we know exactly where we are being in Europe right now.

Sovereignty is somewhat overrated - because we're still bound by certain international laws - and to date, we've not had any laws foisted upon us. Too much of the Out Campaign seems to be based on 'Everyone Else In Europe Hates Us And They're All Colluding Against Us Look Just Who Won The Bloody War In The First Place God Save The Queen 1966' (only slight exaggeration)

To me, it's no different to many political decisions being made purely for the benefit of The City, and lots of public money being filtered in The City to fund that. Example? Happy to bail out the banks. But the steel industry can pretty much eff itself.

With the Out campaign singularly incapable of telling us what Out will look like, I just see no reason to rock the current boat. We very much risk getting the ****ty end of the stick on every occasion in the future, and all Boris and Co. can offer is 'pshwah, crikey, gosh, it'll be fine, what? Crikey. Blimey! Gosh! DIRTY FOREIGNERS HATE US'.

[Denzark]

MM

You repeatedly say the out campaign doesn't tell us what out will look like. It is not a formed body with an electoral mandate. It can't specify for certain what out will look like. There are aims of out. I have cut and pasted some of the main areas of contention from the DT.

The specifics would only be certainty after the exit negotiations were signed off. No one knows exactly what it would be - but we have a rough idea.

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[CoffeeGrunt]

My problem with the Out is a similar problem I had to the Scottish Out. Scotland would be utterly screwed right now. There's no laws I can find that have been forced by the EU that weren't in the process of being adopted by the UK anyway.

Additionally, I work in the offshore industry. Leaving the EU just isn't viable for us right now.

[Psychosplodge]

Why would the offshore industry suffer CG?

[CoffeeGrunt]

Large amount of funding from the EU to subsidise things, as well as my job in particular being reliant on EU Environmental Legislation. Not to mention that the majority of our services are 'exported' to the EU and we buy a lot of stuff from them. Given how close most offshore companies are to collapsing right now, all those extra charges would probably cause another wave of redundancies and closures.

Work inside the EU is far easier for us than outside, where Customs delays become a pain, not to mention the charges and endless paperwork for some, especially in emerging markets like Myanmar. It'd be the difference between us winning contracts or them being awarded to a company that wouldn't have to bugger through customs just to drop some recording units in the Black Sea. We're barely winning contracts as it is.

[Mr Mystery]

MM

You repeatedly say the out campaign doesn't tell us what out will look like. It is not a formed body with an electoral mandate. It can't specify for certain what out will look like. There are aims of out. I have cut and pasted some of the main areas of contention from the DT.

The specifics would only be certainty after the exit negotiations were signed off. No one knows exactly what it would be - but we have a rough idea.

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Which is the big issue for me. Either nobody knows, or nobody is telling.

And that's why I favour staying put. The Out campaign promise many wonderful things, but when it comes to explaining how to make those things a reality, they're coming up short every time.

If I was confident we could get a better deal, I could vote 'Out'. But as many pointed out with the SNP and the Leave vote - there's just no plan. Many promises. Lots of wishes, but nothing to say how we're going to achieve that.

Consider negotiating our own trade agreements - where's our muscle for that? We'd be going up against Russia, China, USA, Europe, India and basically everyone. What is it that we've got that they don't, to the degree we can get anything less than the poopy end of the stick? And sadly, it seems whenever that sort of question is asked, all we get is 'BUT WE CAN CONTROL OUR BORDERS' as an answer - or at least the loudest answer.

Me? I don't have a problem with immigration. Britain (England especially) has been a multicultural society pretty much since forever, and it's worked out pretty well so far. The whole concept of Economic Migrants to me is nonsensical. I mean.....who doesn't move to another country in search of a better life? Why are we objecting to that? A necessary part of successful Economic Migration is that they come, get a job or start a business, and enjoy the relative wealth of our nation - and in doing so, contribute to it.

The same tired old arguments have been trotted out time and again, ever since the Second World War - they took ur jurb! They took ur benefits! Apparently, at the same time. WAVES OF RAPISTS AND SEX CASES AND MURDERERS. THAT'S THE ONLY SORT THAT COME HERE!....utterly regardless of the evidence.

Xenophobia about Indian and Pakistani migrants? Curry is now our national dish. They came, they worked hard, they contributed. Could there be better integration in some areas? Yup, except that's a two way street. We need to show they're welcome to work and contribute, and not have bullnecked racist ****s like the EDL and Britain First encouraging constant harassment of their communities. Yes, it is helpful if they can learn the language, of course it is - but what support was in place for that previously?

And this is my biggest issue with voting Out - rightly or wrongly, it's largely perceived as a Xenophobic, jingoistic movement, because that's what the Press keep trotting out. I don't believe for a second that being a racist bellend is a requirement to be and Outie, but it is drowning out rational debate, and turning people off.

[Psychosplodge]

Large amount of funding from the EU to subsidise things, as well as my job in particular being reliant on EU Environmental Legislation. Not to mention that the majority of our services are 'exported' to the EU and we buy a lot of stuff from them. Given how close most offshore companies are to collapsing right now, all those extra charges would probably cause another wave of redundancies and closures.

Work inside the EU is far easier for us than outside, where Customs delays become a pain, not to mention the charges and endless paperwork for some, especially in emerging markets like Myanmar. It'd be the difference between us winning contracts or them being awarded to a company that wouldn't have to bugger through customs just to drop some recording units in the Black Sea. We're barely winning contracts as it is.



Surely Myamar is irrelevant to being in the EU or not?
I would have assumed multinationals already have plenty of experience working across borders?

[CoffeeGrunt]

Surely Myamar is irrelevant to being in the EU or not?
I would have assumed multinationals already have plenty of experience working across borders?

Myanmar is entirely irrelevant. I was using it as an example of a country where we don't have as easy a relation as we do to the EU right now. Everything we import and export to and from there gets taxed to heck, and delayed by weeks. It's often entirely out of our control and given the short notice nature of our work, it's a real pain to deal with.

So as it stands, EU work is a doddle. No real customs issues, no taxation on moving stuff between here and there, and the paperwork we have to import it is in the form of Open Licenses, meaning we just keeping using them for the next fifteen years for categories of equipment. Other countries have you apply for licenses for specific pieces of equipment they want regulated if it has potential military uses. Given that our main equipment is a civilian offshoot of the gear used to seek out submarines, but arguably more precise, then it's often that being held up, which holds up the whole job and costs us charges in Client Time Payments.

The difference between us just about managing and us closing down is genuinely down to stuff like that. We've had to slash profit margins to compete, and accruing weeks of lost Client Time while we sort through paperwork can make a job effectively not worth doing financially, (though we still have to do it to be sweet with the client.)

TL;DR, the EU lets us skip a lot of PitA stuff that the rest of the world doesn't. Half our work is from the EU, so leaving it makes half our work less financially viable, makes our equipment cost more to buy in, and delays everything. :/

[Psychosplodge]

Sorry, I get what you mean now, I don't know why I didn't read it like that.


Britain (England especially) has been a multicultural society pretty much since forever

Mystery I googled "pre war population make up UK" because people always make your statement or something similar and I wondered how accurate it was. IDK how accurate this (http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingpaper/document/48) is, but I recognise that migration watch gets quoted on the BBC occasionally so possibly somewhat reliable?

If I was guessing, I'd suggest your statement was more accurate for London and large port towns.

In terms of immigration I just don't see the current numbers as feasible to absorb, the infrastructure simply isn't there, regardless of any other argument about it.

[Mr Mystery]

There's also the jobs that are attractive to Migrants to consider. Never mind the NHS as an entity....our entire medical industry could hit the skids.

The Out campaign seem to suggest that we can leave Europe, yet still benefit from the perks associated with membership - all the good, none of the bad. But can't explain how we might achieve that.

As CG says, our exports are likely to suffer, unless we can negotiated mutually beneficial trade agreements. Could we achieve that? Well, I guess. But I for one need to know how we intend to wrangle those.

And my biggest concern? Such a massive decision is being played out as a Tory Civil War - everyone wants to replace Cameron, either personally or with their chosen buddy. So there's a lot of sideshow nonsense going on affecting the chances of an open, rational debate - they're too busy trying to discredit their opponent rather than the arguments.

Much as I can't stand Cameron, I think he made en error of judgement in declaring he won't be PM for a third term before the Referendum was run. He's painted a target on his back. Holding the Referendum is a good thing though - if only to shut people up, one way or the other. I think he's played a blinder in that respect (Tories are bad, but effing hell, UKIP are far worse!).

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Sorry, I get what you mean now, I don't know why I didn't read it like that.



Mystery I googled "pre war population make up UK" because people always make your statement or something similar and I wondered how accurate it was. IDK how accurate this (http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingpaper/document/48) is, but I recognise that migration watch gets quoted on the BBC occasionally so possibly somewhat reliable?

If I was guessing, I'd suggest your statement was more accurate for London and large port towns.

In terms of immigration I just don't see the current numbers as feasible to absorb, the infrastructure simply isn't there, regardless of any other argument about it.

Infrastructure isn't the fault of migration though - it's the result of decades of mismanagement. Not enough homes being built because too many pudgy fingers in the Buy To Let market. People are too hung up on their precious house price - never mind that those most opposed already have massive equity, so even a 20-30% crash in house prices won't bloody affect them in the slightest. Deliberate and systematic underfunding of our social support, including the NHS and Education.

[Wolfshade]

I don't have a massively strong view on this.

I work in an executive agency of the government so my prospects are unaffected by the change.

Whenever you import items into a market you have to make sure that they pass all the local laws so a minimum manufacturing specification would have to be met anyway.

We are outside the open border so that won't really affect things.

The one thing to bear in mind for me is that the EU is our single biggest trading partner. Now I doubt that we would end up with a "Swiss" arrangement given the size of our economy compared to those on the edge of Europe.

But could we negotiate trade arrangements? Certainly, don't forget the amount we export to India which we don't have a free trade agreement.

I suppose the question is, would any short term loss be out weighed by a long term gain?

[grimmas]

I urge you all to look up the TTIP the Independent have done a good set of articles on it (and they are politically independent). Basically itbmeans not just handing sovereignty to the EU but also the EU handing some of it to large US corporations.

It's the reason Barak was getting all choppsy. If the last 100 years have taught us anything if the US is really keen on something it's because it's good for them and bugger everyone else.

[Psychosplodge]

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/ttip-leaks-shocking-what-are-they-eu-us-deal-a7010121.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/ttip-could-cause-an-nhs-sell-off-and-parliament-would-be-powerless-to-stop-it-says-leading-union-a7006471.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/ttip-nhs-privatisation-jeremy-hunt-junior-doctors-strike-obama-isds-a7001691.html

If anyone was in any doubt out is the only way to save the NHS.

[Mr Mystery]

Well?........No. Not at all.

Look at the proposed TTIP. Have a good read, and pay heed to the warnings.

Bad, huh?

Now that's a negotiated trade deal when we're in Europe. It still has to be ratified, and it may not happen in the end.

Next, consider that the Out Campaign are now reassuring us we can get our own trade deals. Which is of course true - of course we can get our own trade deals.

But look back at the TTIP. That's the result of Europe's collective bargaining power. And it's kind of looking like we might be getting the ****ty end of the stick, if it's put into practice.

Back to reality. You think we're gonna get a ****ty deal in Europe, just imagine how much ****tier it will be when it's the UK against the USA. Or UK against China. Or UK against Russia. We simply do not have the muscle to get the good end of the negotiations.

So TTIP is bad - but the Out Campaign have not, will not, and frankly cannot explain how we'll get things our way outside of Europe.

As for the NHS? Tories and UKIP make up the backbone of the Out Campaign. And they're not exactly parties one can consider a friend to the NHS...

[Psychosplodge]

No individuals make up out not parties, apart from UKIP which has individuals from all sides (but was clearly founded by tories) or it wouldn't challenge labour in the North( apparently there was double digit differences in the last council elctions which is unheard of when anything with a red ribbon normally wins most of SY)

No that's not bargaining Mystery, that's people lining their own pockets as usual.

The In campaign seem to be forgetting we're not some tinpot backwater either, we're what the fifth largest economy? People will want to continue to trade.

And you're right Mr. Hunt is clearly currently doing his best to wreck it.

[Haighus]

TTIP doesn't benefit the US either though frankly, not the US people anyway. It really only benefits massive corporations and big industry, and having just been reading a bit on it, looks like the most corrupt thing to be happening in Europe at the moment, by far. Sadly, I don't think Brexit would make much of a difference, the UK would likely be sucked into it regardless, or end up in it's own corrupt agreement with the US that is even more unfavourable than TTIP- if the entirety of Europe (sort of)* is struggling to negotiate a favourable deal, I don't see how Britain alone would be able to. The UK would probably go crawling to the US and get some sh***y deal full of ISDS and practically make the UK into a corporation-run pit, or be left without any sort of trade agreement.

I don't know why the negotiations are even still ongoing- Germany doesn't like it, France doesn't like it, the UK doesn't like it, people all over Europe don't like it. Just goes to show how much wealth and money allows industry to circumnavigate democracy.

*It seems to just be the European Commission and industry heads negotiating, not any of the actual countries with a stake in this.

[Psychosplodge]

yes the commission, that shining beacon of democracy.

You do realise we already trade with the US without any special arrangements right?

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http://i.imgur.com/65xTYYI.jpg


we are not lowering standards in the TTIP-negotiatons,

[Morgrim]

There is no country on the planet whose citizens benefit from the TTIP. I invite anyone to give me some evidence that statement is wrong, I've yet to find any. It's big business trying to form their own cosy international law, and screw everyone else.

Europe are absolute idiots if they pass it, and if they do so it'll be because of corruption. Ditto if the UK passes it on their own. Quitting the EU won't affect that decision overall though, the UK it already being buttered up over it.

[Psychosplodge]

Quitting the EU may give the politicians a slight pause, as they're ultimately elected by the public. The EU commission aren't directly elected by any sort of vote I believe?

[Mr Mystery]

Nothing would ever stop the Tories privatising anything - our own grandmothers included.

I just fail to see how we could avoid getting an even worse deal than the TTIP proposal. We may be quite high up the rankings of rich countries, but the ones we'd need to deal with are above us.

And until the Out Campaign can come up with a plausible answer to that, I think it's insanity to leave Europe.

[CoffeeGrunt]

To be honest, the EU-Out argument has so many facets that I doubt politicians would readily admit TTIP was the cause. It also doesn't preclude our own government from signing up to it anyway.

You can say it'd be bad PR all you want, but they simply wouldn't care. Selling the NHS off is bad press, and they've been doing that as hard and sly as they can.

[eldargal]

Stay. The leave campaign is driven purely by emotive wishful thinking and a complete denial of the facts and its a sad testament to the state of public discource that the Stay campaign is doing such a miserable job of highlighting what utter bollocks the Leave argument is.

Leave campaign: 'We won't be hurt in trade, we will sign a trade agreement with America!'
Barack Obama: 'Not going to happen'
Leave campaign: 'Well what does the US President know about US trade relations! Also he should stay out of it, because it doesn't involve him! Even though we have explicitly mentioned trade with his country as a reason to leave!'

[grimmas]

Actually it's the uncertainty that is probably their best argument for Out. We are going to get f**ked over if we stay in. The question of going out is "is it going to be worse if we leave?" To be honest if I've got a chance to do better that's what I'm going to go for.

Oh a Barak Obama ain't going to be in power so what he says has as little weight as any other non British citizen.

[Psychosplodge]

The EU isn't run for our interests is it? Just being able to do whats best for us rather than whats best for 28 different countries surely benefits us.

[Mr Mystery]

But then, unless you're an Old Etonian, the UK isn't exactly run in your interests anyway.

The EU is a co-operative. The Out campaign like to focus on what they perceive to be the downside, but time and again are exposed as only telling part of the story. And when they're inevitably caught out and called out on it, it's back to 'SECURE UR BURDERS!' 'EY OOK UR JURRRRRRBS'.

But the most important thing - The Out Campaign have, at no point, made a single, persuasive, factual argument as to exactly how we're going to get all these necessary and new trade deals in our favour. Look at the TTIP. Look at it. That's what the US wants to foist upon Europe. It requires every member state to agree to it. Every. Single. One. If just one vetos, bye bye TTIP as it is now.

That is bargaining power. That is a position of strength.

On our own? Take it or leave it, smallfry.

The US has expressed before they like us in, because we're their backdoor into Europe. That's negotiating power on it's own. But sod it, lets just abandon that, so the US has to buddy up to a different EU Member state. We'll totally get one over on them in the next agreement, yeah?

[eldargal]

No, because while like every layer of government it ultimately ends up being run to benefit various groups of elites the economic benefits of EU membership are greater than if we quit.

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But then, unless you're an Old Etonian, the UK isn't exactly run in your interests anyway.

The EU is a co-operative. The Out campaign like to focus on what they perceive to be the downside, but time and again are exposed as only telling part of the story. And when they're inevitably caught out and called out on it, it's back to 'SECURE UR BURDERS!' 'EY OOK UR JURRRRRRBS'.

But the most important thing - The Out Campaign have, at no point, made a single, persuasive, factual argument as to exactly how we're going to get all these necessary and new trade deals in our favour. Look at the TTIP. Look at it. That's what the US wants to foist upon Europe. It requires every member state to agree to it. Every. Single. One. If just one vetos, bye bye TTIP as it is now.

That is bargaining power. That is a position of strength.

On our own? Take it or leave it, smallfry.

The US has expressed before they like us in, because we're their backdoor into Europe. That's negotiating power on it's own. But sod it, lets just abandon that, so the US has to buddy up to a different EU Member state. We'll totally get one over on them in the next agreement, yeah?

Exactly. However the EU is run, the fact is it benefits us economically, and leaving would hurt us economically. There are also many other cultural and social benefits. The Leave campaign is based on the premise that we can avoid all the responsibilities and disadvantages of EU membership while maintaining the economic benefits and that is ludicrous. If we leave, it is in Europes interest to punish us for as long as possible as a deterrent for other nations who might think about leaving.

[Psychosplodge]

It's not in the interests of the german car industry to punish us aren't we their largest export market after the US?

[Denzark]

Stay. The leave campaign is driven purely by emotive wishful thinking and a complete denial of the facts and its a sad testament to the state of public discource that the Stay campaign is doing such a miserable job of highlighting what utter bollocks the Leave argument is.

Leave campaign: 'We won't be hurt in trade, we will sign a trade agreement with America!'
Barack Obama: 'Not going to happen'
Leave campaign: 'Well what does the US President know about US trade relations! Also he should stay out of it, because it doesn't involve him! Even though we have explicitly mentioned trade with his country as a reason to leave!'

The leave campaign is not PURELY (which means 100%) wishful thinking. It is also not simply denial of facts. The leave campaign is hampered by much:

Purdah when stay isn't.
Not being a cohesive party and/or sitting government.
UKIP.
People wrongly conflating not wanting unrestricted immigration with racism.

Why can I say 'leave' is not purely wishful emotive thinking:

Because it is 100% fact that policy/legislation that can affect our citizens can be generated externally from our democratic process- by which I mean decided on by people/political parties that will never ever appear on a ballot paper in this country.

Why can I say 'leave' doesn't deny facts?

Because some of the 'facts' are actually scaremongering bollocks.

Such as 'We are safer in Europe'. Wrong - safety in a military sense comes from NATO which no one is saying leave from - not 'Europe' or 'The EU'. Safety in a security/intelligence sense comes from bilateral agreements and our most important grouping in this sense is '5 Eyes' - Aus, Can, NZ, UK, US. I recently referenced a previous head of MI6 in the Politics thread, and can't be arsed to do so again - but it is his SME opinion that the groups 'Stay' talks up as being signs of this great cooperation, are meaningless talking shops.

Trade - I believe we import some £60bn goods from Europe (it may be £60bn more than what we actually export to them, I forget and again can't be arsed to fact check - look in DT website). Are we saying all those firms in Europe are going to want to cut our orders to the tune of £60bn because the EU fannies around with trade agreements? Wrong.

It would be cutting off their nose to spite their face and if that's genuinely how they play do we want to be in bed with them? French refusing to import our beef after it was ruled safe and flying in the face of an EU ruling?




The truth is a little bit Obi-Wan Kenobi when it comes to Europe - it all depends on your 'certain point of view'.

[eldargal]

It's not in the interests of the german car industry to punish us aren't we their largest export market after the US?

Leaving will hurt their sales to us regardless.

[Mr Mystery]

£60bn of trade goods with little redtape or import taxes.

That's £60bn of trade good about to get lumbered with redtape or import taxes. That's higher prices.

Then there's our exports to Europe. About to get lumbered with redtape and import/export taxes.

It goes back to my central point - we know precisely the deal we've got being in Europe. It ain't perfect, but it's a 100% known quantity. And really, it's not that bad at all. Migration doesn't concern me in the slightest - the way the Murdoch Press likes to portray Migrants just isn't even vaguely factual. EU migrants are significantly less likely to use our social security structures. And when that's the most commonly seen complaint - it's kind of hard to see concerns about migration as anything but racially motivate, because so many of them actually are racially motivated.

But if we Leave? What then? Nobody knows, because the Out Campaign know it'll be bad news, and potentially long term bad news, and it'd be solidly at their door - they lead us out, after all. And much as I'd like to see Farage bunged in a Wickerman for his sins (he is very keen on traditional British values, after all) it's just not worth the risk.

As for German Car Manufacturers...well, they might lose sales to the UK because of redtape and import/export taxes suddenly kicking in.....but not to worry. They're still part of one of the world's largest trading blocks, and ooooh, look. Lovely, new, emerging markets with burgeoning middle classes....middle classes with money to spare, and what says 'I've got money to spare' more than a spangly new Merc or BMW?.

Again, the Out Campaign is one of obfuscation and wishful thinking.

[grimmas]

Well as our imports exceede our exports it would seem to suggest that we benefit the EU more than they benefit us when it come to trade. Also guess what they aren't going to stop trading with us just because we leave they need our business.

the trade is a red herring it'll happen regardless. Now I'd get a little worried about ditching the ECHR (though probably not for the reason some might suspect). Though the thing I'm really worried about is the NHS and I can't see how that'd survive what the EU proposes unless they start chucking money our way and that ain't happening. Of course the Tories aren't any friends of the NHS but we don't have to vote for them.

[Psychosplodge]

Race doesn't come into migration Mystery, but numbers do.
It's ridiculous to suggest we can absorb a net 300k+ people a year without it having a negative effect on infrastructure.

I don't imagine the ECHR has changed much since the 40/50s whenever it was signed. The problem clearly isn't the treaty it's the way the modern courts appear to interpreting it.

[Mr Mystery]

How does the EU threaten the NHS?

And it's not that they'll stop trading with us. Instead, they'll hammer out an agreement where we get done over, because they've got 27 Markets to our 1....That's not a Red Herring. That's lunacy.

[eldargal]

Race doesn't come into migration Mystery, but numbers do.
It's ridiculous to suggest we can absorb a net 300k+ people a year without it having a negative effect on infrastructure.

We need to invest more in infrastructure anyway, that helps build growth, as does migration. Our nt migration rate is actually very low, half that of Canada with a larger country (higher infrastructure costs) and a smaller population and economy.

[grimmas]

See Splodges response, for the threat to the NHS.

It is a Red Herring because, they need our money we aren't negotiating with no leverage.

[Denzark]

I wouldn't worry about the ECHR - we were not a country with people disappearing having been black bagged by snatch squads a la V for Vendetta before we joined.

It benefits the EU more to not try and bend us over about trade - because it is fact they export more to us than we export to them. And if they were going to... why would we want to be part of a grouping that tries to hold you fast with threats?

Sounds like an abusive husband trying to prevent the wife leaving.

[Psychosplodge]

Our net migration rate is actually very low, half that of Canada with a larger country

A town the size of Rotherham a year is hardly low, and we're considerably less than half the land area than Canada.

[Mr Mystery]

Except we need their money more.

Britain is built on the back of a very small scrap of land. And it's a scrap of land I'm familiar with.

Canary Wharf. One of the biggest banking sectors in the world.

That's built on trade etc. Except under EU rules, a bank trading with the EU must have an EU based headquarters. Guess what? That's presently Canary Wharf for the most part.

We leave Europe? We instantly weaken that financial powerhouse (and for those who remember 2007/2008, remember the last time The City caught a cold?)

[Psychosplodge]

Barcalys have just sold off their mainland EU operations, theres obviously a reason for that.

[Denzark]

Except under EU rules, a bank trading with the EU must have an EU based headquarters. Guess what? That's presently Canary Wharf for the most part.


How do the American banks manage? Or are you saying they'll all bugger off to what, Hamburg? Switzerland? Sorry, Switzerland is outside the EU financially

We leave Europe? We instantly weaken that financial powerhouse (and for those who remember 2007/2008, remember the last time The City caught a cold?)

Personally I'd have to eat £6k net p.a. (£500 per month) before I'd vote against. But between all the financial arguments, whilst I'm absolutely sure there would be an initial downturn, I have seen academics of professorial level argue it would be an initial 1% and then climb back up.

[Mr Mystery]

American Banks?

Their EU HQ are....in Canary Wharf or other parts of London. We leave, they have to leave. Further unemployment. Further economic wobbles.

And there's academics of professional level, and y'know, The Bank of England, saying it's a very, very bad move.

[Psychosplodge]

The bank of England didn't predict the last crash.
Can't seem to get a six month growth forecast right.
So to suggest they can predict this is nonsense.

[eldargal]

Except it isn't a prediction. We know the benefits of EU membership, they are measurable. We know what will happen if they are withdrawn.

[Al Shut]

It goes back to my central point - we know precisely the deal we've got being in Europe. It ain't perfect, but it's a 100% known quantity.

But is it? Has any of the recently struck EU deal got past the promises stage yet?

EU scepticism seems to be on the rise in a lot of places, the future inside the EU might be far less predictable than you think.

[Denzark]

And we know the disadvantages EG - and they are measurable.

[grimmas]

Except it isn't a prediction. We know the benefits of EU membership, they are measurable. We know what will happen if they are withdrawn.

Except they are predictions based on some weird scenario that if we leave the EU we suddenly don't get to trade with anyone in Europe anymore. The Stay campaign is coming out with just as much fantasy as the Leave.

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Oh and has anyone else noticed that the EU isn't exactly a growing economic power house, Spain, Greece anyone?

Also as for the Banking situation the EU in trying like crazy to force the financial bodies out of London and across the rest of Europe so we're going to have to do something there regardless.

[Mr Mystery]

Evidence for that?

[Asymmetrical Xeno]

I don't even have a f**king clue either way, how could it potentially effect disabled people? Thats what I'm afraid of, this government has killed enough of us already, what could they potentially do if we left the EU?

[Mr Mystery]

The Tories?

Tear up the Human Rights Act for a start. They're itching to do it.

[grimmas]

Evidence for that?

What of Greece being f**ked I'm sure you know that one.

The EU trying to alter the finicial sector. I thought you you worked in finance? Go chat to some bankers. It what I did.

It is mentioned in here

http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY_-_The_future_of_baking_in_Europe_-_January_2016/$FILE/EY-the-future-of-banking-in-europe-jan-2016.pdf

Flowery speech used but they aren't comfortable with it being so dependant on the UK.

[Denzark]

I don't even have a f**king clue either way, how could it potentially effect disabled people? Thats what I'm afraid of, this government has killed enough of us already, what could they potentially do if we left the EU?

They could potentially:

Use some or all of the £33m per day we pay to the EU to boost the NHS

Stop using NHS money to translate 'stop smoking' or 'my wee wee smells funny' leaflets into Polish/Bulgarian/Romanian, thus spending the money on the disabled.

Stop treating EU citizens at cost to us - the last figures I saw shows a significantly higher proportion of NHS money being spent on non-UK EU citizens than EU countries Health Service's spend on UK citizens.


Seeing as the NHS budget is ringfenced, and seeing as they seem to be capable of cocking the NHS up just fine as members, it should be normal service either way.

[Psychosplodge]

I don't even have a f**king clue either way, how could it potentially effect disabled people? Thats what I'm afraid of, this government has killed enough of us already, what could they potentially do if we left the EU?

If we stay and infrastructure doesn't keep pace with immigration you're going to suffer in that manner - depending on where you are in the country, rural places will probably see less change than inner cities with cheaper rents.
Plus whatever additional pressures applied by the government of the time.

If we leave it'll depend on the government.

[Mr Mystery]

I kind of work in finance - but not within finance. Hard to explain.

And not being fans of 'all eggs, one basket' isn't the same as your claim they're trying to force anyone to do anything - particularly as they can't force any such thing.

[Psychosplodge]

In the sector, but not directly with cash/numbers?

[Denzark]

The Tories?

Tear up the Human Rights Act for a start. They're itching to do it.

Why would this matter?

That is a serious question, are you worried about instant infringements of your current article 8 right to privacy, thus resulting in a surveillance state?

Are you worried about article 2 right to life changing so corporate manslaughter will go away?

Do you not think chopping and changing article 8 which contains the family life provisions, thus being able to deport criminals without them claiming a family tie, is a good thing?

Seriously, we will not just suddenly descend into a lawless dark age of suppression by the state.

[Psychosplodge]

We signed it in what 1950? Why has article 8 only recently been interpreted to prevent deporting foreign criminals? The fault is the judiciary not the treaty.

[Mr Mystery]

This....this is the Tories we're talking about, yeah?

The party that has persecuted the poorest and weakest since 2010, because the richest made whoopsie and crashed the economy?

What about a right to a fair trial? There's already dodgy stuff going on with that.

Frankly - I am worried about where they'd stop. Right to Privacy? You have seen what Theresa May wants to inflict on us, yes?

I don't trust the current shower of ***** to chop and change anything. They're already trying to politicise policing with Police Commissioners.

More importantly, the current Human Rights laws are fine as they are.

[grimmas]

I kind of work in finance - but not within finance. Hard to explain.

And not being fans of 'all eggs, one basket' isn't the same as your claim they're trying to force anyone to do anything - particularly as they can't force any such thing.

Net result is the same it doesn't matter what the reason they give for it. Oh and if it doesn't happen "voluntarily" they'll force it (which amounts to forcing it).

[Mr Mystery]

Well, no.

There's no way for them to force such a thing - not without significantly changing the rules. Rules which the UK has a veto on, preventing it from happening.

Can you at all clarify exactly how they'd otherwise do it?

(attacking the concept, not the person!)

[grimmas]

What about a right to a fair trial? There's already dodgy stuff going on with that.

Frankly - I am worried about where they'd stop. Right to Privacy? You have seen what Theresa May wants to inflict on us, yes?

I don't trust the current shower of ***** to chop and change anything. They're already trying to politicise policing with Police Commissioners.

More importantly, the current Human Rights laws are fine as they are.

Now we agree but with the exception of the ECHR I don't think the EU will have much to do with it. If anything the some European justice systems are far more oppressive than ours. Certainly the way there Police Sevices operate. I know the British police is taking a bashing of late (for historical stuff) but they're a whole lot better than most other places in the world if not the best.

[Mr Mystery]

I've certainly got no issue with the Rozzers. They've got a difficult job to do, and they do it better than can be expected for the most part - after all, we only ever hear of bent coppers, and not those doing the good work.

My other points were expressly about what I fear would replace the ECHR with the Tories in charge. Given Murdoch is dead against it and holds horrific sway over far too many politicians (hence the constant, thankfully unsuccessful, smear campaign against Corbyn....Newscorp hasn't been trying to buy him for the past few decades), you've got to ask just what is it in the ECHR that he wants to end?

[grimmas]

Well, no.

There's no way for them to force such a thing - not without significantly changing the rules. Rules which the UK has a veto on, preventing it from happening.

Can you at all clarify exactly how they'd otherwise do it?

(attacking the concept, not the person!)

Through the usual. There's a whole raft of laws and regulations we lack the ability to change. If they want it to happen it'll happen. To be fair given how the situation is at the moment they're probably sh*ting themselves they hadn't done it sooner. Our own government has shown its fully willing and capable of ignoring and altering their own laws to suit them I certain the EU can manage it.

[Psychosplodge]

The last time we veto'd something they basically ignored it didnt they?

[Mr Mystery]

Still not going to happen.

As part of the EU, they can't get through any law which forces industry from one country to another within the EU. Can't be done. That sort of law requires a vote by member states. UK vetoes, problem gone.

Now, they may seek to de-centralise it all (eggs in one basket is after all rarely a well recommended concept). But strip it out of the UK? Impossible. Cannot be done.

We're moving toward a more unified banking industry - that's unavoidable given globalisation. Already, I'm having to work under the aegis of the ADR rules. Hasn't changed much for me and mine, but has affected other EU countries who perhaps didn't have such robust dispute resolution rules in place as the UK - and the ADR rules cover more than just finance.

Some might call it meddling - but in fact, it's there to provide a low cost, speedy alternative to seeking correction through the courts. That sort of thing should be embraced by all and sundry. Businesses don't need to spend as much on a hefty legal team. Consumers don't need legal aid or Legal Expense Insurance for more trivial things.

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The last time we veto'd something they basically ignored it didnt they?

What was that?

[grimmas]

I've certainly got no issue with the Rozzers. They've got a difficult job to do, and they do it better than can be expected for the most part - after all, we only ever hear of bent coppers, and not those doing the good work.

My other points were expressly about what I fear would replace the ECHR with the Tories in charge. Given Murdoch is dead against it and holds horrific sway over far too many politicians (hence the constant, thankfully unsuccessful, smear campaign against Corbyn....Newscorp hasn't been trying to buy him for the past few decades), you've got to ask just what is it in the ECHR that he wants to end?


Surely you mean the rightful exposee on the traitor Corbyn? 😜

Well I certainly share your concern on the ECHR and for more reasons than you've given I think we are a tricky junction on how people view the rights of other. Of course leaving doesn't mean we can't produce something better suit to the needs of the U.K.

On a more serious Corbyn point hasn't he always voted against the major EU legislation (Maastricht and the like) but I've heard nothing what has changed his mind now.

[Mr Mystery]

Corbyn is a man of principle. He may not like Europe, but he's sensible enough to realise the Out Campaign have nothing.

Also, found this regarding EU Vetoes. (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/european-elections-explaining-the-mysterious-british-veto-john-lichfield-writes-the-first-of-a-1438345.html) Can't guarantee it's 100% impartial, but it's the best I could find in that respect! (automatically discount Das Daily Heil et al on account they're lunatics)

[Psychosplodge]

What was that?

I can't remember but I remember there being a massive fuss at the time, I think it was under the coalition. Something finance related possibly and the government saw it as a threat to the City?
I wish I could remember what it actually was.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm thinking probably this?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16104275

[Mr Mystery]

Depends on the veto type, according to the article I just linked to (probably posted as you were posting :) )

There's a tickle at the back of my mind, and I think the finance thing was to do with limiting Banker's Bonuses? There was definitely a hoo-ha about it (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/20/osborne-eu-cap-bankers-bonuses-defeat-ecj), but so far as I remember the argument against was 'but if we don't overpay them, they'll go to another country that will overpay them and stuff up their economy instead'.

[grimmas]

To be fair that is a way to getting the sector moved. Regulation that will induce them elsewhere.

If the banking is moved out of the U.K. for whatever reason we will still lose money they can call it decentralising or whatever, we lose and we're going to lose. May be if we had the ability to look elsewhere.........?

[Mr Mystery]

Except if it's centralised regulation, where are they going to go? The only way that would happen is if the UK got more draconian than other EU member states, and the EU itself has no control over that.

[grimmas]

Corbyn is a man of principle

He certainly is, which is why this U-turn is surprising.

Edit. Got round to reading your link on Vetos, it hasn't inspired me with much confidence on that score it seems they aren't that much cop.

[Psychosplodge]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36243296

This is the first headline I've seen that makes me think Cameron believes he might lose this referendum.

The Idea that leaving the UK leaving the EU while remaining a member of NATO(along with most of europe) is a threat to peace is absolutely laughable. I don't think I've seen any serious suggestions that the UK leaves NATO.

[grimmas]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36243296

This is the first headline I've seen that makes me think Cameron believes he might lose this referendum.

The Idea that leaving the UK leaving the EU while remaining a member of NATO(along with most of europe) is a threat to peace is absolutely laughable. I don't think I've seen any serious suggestions that the UK leaves NATO.

Plenty of other NATO members that aren't in the EU as well. They also aren't suddenly going to chuck us out we're one of the most effective members of that particular group.

[Psychosplodge]

I mean unless of course he's planning on invading the EU on the 25th to run things properly

[grimmas]

Well historically we've done rather well on that front 😳

[Mr Mystery]

Fishface Gove has finally admitted we would have to leave the Single Market - which means pretty much all of the out campaigns fiscal projections are an utter nonsense.....

[Psychosplodge]

Both sides fiscal calculations don't seem rooted in reality.

[Mr Mystery]

Though I do find it hilarious how the Out Campaign (IMMIGRUNTS WILL EAR UR BABEES AND TAKE UR JURRRRB) are claiming the In campaign are 'project fear'.

It's all becoming just another mindless political circus.

[Psychosplodge]

Well they are because literally everything the remain side say is "The world will end the day after if we vote to leave", the politicians on the leave side are promising the impossible at the same time.
That's why everyone should ignore the politicians and do what they think is right.


Peace in Europe could be at risk if Britain votes to leave the European Union

Yeah totally not project fear :rolleyes:

[Al Shut]

Just wait and see.

Third time 's the charm.

[grimmas]

There appears to be a worrying amount of Germans with a sense of humour on these forums 😏

Also World War 2 is very poorly named considering there were definitely at least 2 other World Wars before it.

[Psychosplodge]

There appears to be a worrying amount of Germans with a sense of humour on these forums 😏

Also World War 2 is very poorly named considering there were definitely at least 2 other World Wars before it.

If they carry on they'll break the stereotype.

[grimmas]

If they carry on they'll break the stereotype.

I know it's shaking my perceptions to their very core.

[Mr Mystery]

Eeh, I just about wet meself! (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36252295)

http://www.une-sen.org/press/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/mmm_hypocrisy.png

[Psychosplodge]

EU favours 'haves over the have-nots'

The idea that that concerns him anything beyond as a useful point is rather laughable.

[Mr Mystery]

Y U STATEMENT NO MAKE SENSE?

Serial!

[Psychosplodge]

Better?

[Mr Mystery]

Yup!

Odious little toad of a man that he is.

[grimmas]

Funny Germans, IDS claiming to care for the plebs

WHAT THE F**K IS GOING ON

The End Times are upon us.

[Psychosplodge]

The vote must currently have out in the lead, the world will end the day after that happens right?

[grimmas]

The vote must currently have out in the lead, the world will end the day after that happens right?

Yep the apocalypse will happen and the ECHR is going to be replaced by the THUNDERDOME!!

[Mr Mystery]

Nigel Farage there, once again demonstrating a worrying lack of understanding of how democracy actually works... (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681)

[CoffeeGrunt]

Wasn't Farage part of the anti-SNP rhetoric about how Scotland had decided which way to vote, so your party is useless now and stop campaigning?

[Mr Mystery]

Wouldn't surprise me - especially as the Leave campaign have adopted the same (flawed) tactics as the SNP....

[Psychosplodge]

Wouldn't want any complications buying that holiday home on the French Rivera would we? (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36338220)

:rolleyes:

[Mr Mystery]

Entitled to their ha'penny worth as much as the next person.

It's not as if they've bizarrely compared the EU to Hitler, right? :p (I swear Boris Johnson is losing his marbles!)

[Psychosplodge]

Well you could argue Hitler attempted to seize power by force in the 20s and then when that failed came to power by political means.

But I only did history upto GCSE cause I got the time wrong for my second exam so didn't have the grade for A Level

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Entitled to their ha'penny worth as much as the next person.


They are, but are their opinions adding any real meaning to the debate by airing them on the BBC? Or are they aimed at a certain section of the vacuous celebrity obsessed orange population by the partially EU funded remain supporting BBC (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/12059280/BBC-has-received-2m-in-EU-funding-in-run-up-to-referendum-fueling-accusations-of-bias.html)?

[Mr Mystery]

Who knows?

But you can't decry the BBC without also decrying Dingo 'not even a British Citizen, but up to his apricots in our Parliament' Wukka and his stable of right wing, knee jerk reactionary hate rags :p

[Psychosplodge]

Yeah but we know each of the papers have a bias and roughly where it is.

The BBC is supposedly neutral.

[grimmas]

I'd did come across a bit of Pro Remain info from someone in the the relevant field that hasn't been mentioned by the very poor campaigns that bare being run by both sides.

The EU has a very large R&D budgets for companies developing new technologies (80Billion apparently) which is the largest in the world. Due to the high end nature of the our industry companies in the UK receive the lion's share of this. Given that projections suggest that this sort of high end stuff is very much what the UK should be concentrating on we may well miss that money quite badly. Certainly the company I was speaking with would not have been able to function without it. They were convinced that we get out a lot more than we put in on this score as well.

[Psychosplodge]

Surely if this was the case we wouldn't be listed as a Net contributor to finances?

[Mr Mystery]

Just because we get a decent deal doesn't mean we're coming out on top overall.

Sadly it seems mostly impossible to truly quantify if we get more than we put in - official figures only cover the money we get back from the EU directly, like subsidies and stuff, but never include 'peer reviewed' benefits, such as import/export, because we can't know for certain unless we do leave.

Which brings me back to my main point - we know the deal we get now, and Vote Leave have singularly failed to show there's a guaranteed benefit to leaving, and what that might look like.

[Psychosplodge]

But decisions made to benefit us by us will surely be better than decisions made by committee of 28 or possibly 33 in the near future will probably not be in our best interests.

[Mr Mystery]

Things which we largely have a veto for - so no biggie.

Fisheries? Hugh Fearnlet Eats-It-All lead a very successful campaign about quotas and throwbacks etc.

In short, the EU works.

And you say decisions to benefit us. When was the last time a British Government made a decision to actually help your average or garden variety Briton, and not just line the pockets of their mates?

[Psychosplodge]

It far from works. Even its supporters apart from the rabid federalists generally do so begrudgingly because its so corrupt and broken.

[grimmas]

Surely if this was the case we wouldn't be listed as a Net contributor to finances?

I don't know mate, but that's the pot their money came from.

As to the respective campaigns they both only managed rhetoric and personality moves. Both have been very disappointing and a general insult to the intelligence of Britsh people generally.

It's not just the UK that has issues with the EU either just have a look at the discontent from the German people (which never bodes well) the French people aren't exactly doing cartwheels either and let face it they pretty vital in the equation. Somthing is very wrong with it the question is what we're going to do about it.

[Psychosplodge]

As too the respective campaigns they both only managed rhetoric and personality moves. Both have been very disappointing and a general insult to the intelligence of Britsh people generally.

Pretty much. Both seem to prove the old "how do you know a politician is lying?"

[Mr Mystery]

I feel its the Leave Campaign that deserves the greater scrutiny - after all, they're the ones challenging the status quo, and all too often outright lying to support that.

The In Campaign have the lion's share of the facts and figures in their favour - as I said, we know the exact deal we get from the EU, because we're living in it now.

Good example of a Leave Lie? Fishface McPob claims 'well we do get a rebate on membership costs. but that could be taken away at any time. Liar liar, incompetent, creepy, quite possibly slimy pants on fire, mate. Why? That would require a vote. A vote we hold a Veto over. So in short, our rebate is not going anywhere, mate.

[grimmas]

Somewhat trivial but it would appear that Freeblade was funded by EU money

18627

What's democracy compared to a decent 40K game 😉

[Mr Mystery]

I've just been playing that, too!

[CoffeeGrunt]

EU funding is also fairly essential for environmental studies. Said studies don't get backed by private businesses because they don't yield profit, and often introduce costs that annoy industries, such as Cetacean Mitigation for the offshore industry. These studies are important, but given the ones in power atm, I wouldn't be surprised to see their funding slashed because they're not deemed to be profitable.

Not to mention that a lot of other studies can become profitable only after they yield a workable prototype that can be mass-manufactured, but private enterprises only pick it up in that final stage. Up to that point, the years of study, testing and prototyping, there is no funding.

Heck, working in industry there's actually an almost-deliberate impetus against improving our technology. Our equipment is designed to detect dolphins and whales. The better we do that, the more frequently we'll detect them. A whale or dolphin detection during operations means operations must immediately cease before they can start blasting the airguns again. This costs time and money. Therefore, if we continually invest in improving our systems to the point of being near-perfect, it'd cost our clients so much money that we'd rapidly lose our work unless we leveraged legislation to make our standard the standard.

Which would then demand we share our improvements in technology, or our competitors would shut it out as an "anti-monopoly" attempt. This is great for maintaining the profitable status quo, but the improvement in technology needs to happen, especially with regards to protecting the environment...

[grimmas]

I've got a good friend who works I the same field the companies l he works for do a lot of business globally, it would seem like this is somthing that the UK does do rather well at. It could be a issue of it relies on EU money. Of course leaving doesn't necessarily mean the UK government doesn't front up th cash but I must confess seeing as though the Leave campaign hasn't mentioned it who knows if they are even aware of it.

[CoffeeGrunt]

Going by Farage, the head of UKIP and pretty much the spearhead of the Out Campaign, and his plan to cut back on environmental spending, I'd say no, the government wouldn't fork over the cash if we did exit.

"But it's for the future of our country," you say! Well, so's the NHS and they've been selling that off for the last few years, not to mention squeezing welfare for every penny they can.

[Al Shut]

My prediction

The outcome of the referendum will be determined by the boost of national self-esteem that may or may not be produced by Englands performance in the EURO group stage.

[grimmas]

My prediction

The outcome of the referendum will be determined by the boost of national self-esteem that may or may not be produced by Englands performance in the EURO group stage.

Sadly will probably be the case.

As to the privatisation of the NHS we've not really seen any full privatisation just yet as although it's private companies providing some services it's still ultimately public money funding it. Obviously that does come with its own concerns. My wife and I had NHS funded IVF at a private clinic and very nice it was to (at no difference in cost to a NHS run clinic).

[grimmas]

Also does anyone think that each is basically running their campaign for other sides benefit. I think the Remain rhetoric has done more to make me want to leave than the Leave and vice versa. I mean come on pick your bleeding audience. Getting the head of the European Comission (the biggest issue many eurosceptics have) to basically start issuing threats (which they are because the EU really needs to trade with us) is possibly the worst thing to do all its going to garner is the response "oh yeah, come on if you think you're hard enough". Buffoons and cretins the lot of them.

[Psychosplodge]

British exit would spark year long recession (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564) Is that before or after it sparks world war three?

[Mr Mystery]

Recession thing is far more plausible. We'd have to end various and sundry trade agreements linked directly and indirectly to EU Membership - that sort of thing always stuffs over financial markets which are more jittery than something normally very jittery after 27 Espressos and a toke of Crack.

When things inevitably stabilise (they always do. Always), whether we'd be in a better position is impossible to tell, as nobody knows how deep said recession would actually be. Remember, negative growth is negative growth, whether it's 0.0001% or 5% of GDP and that.

Lots of potential postulation around that - how isolated would our recession be? Europe might not be in great stakes at the very moment, but if it's a very localised recession, they stand to make up the ground collectively - but then it could trigger a much wider recession, putting everyone on the same footing once again. I'm not gonna pretend I know anywhere enough about economics to speculate further!

Either way, I feel it just goes to once again illustrate we're best off as is, as we know exactly where we stand now and for the foreseeable future. Leave can give us all the wishful thinking they like, but I just don't see how that can ever compare to the knowing we currently have.

[Psychosplodge]

See the problem is they're all obsessing about the economy, and its basically about whether we become part of a currently inevitable federal superstate or we walk away and possibly put and end to that ever happening.

The like of the commission that was issuing threats last week will take a remain vote as weakness and carte blanche to carry on doing whatever the **** they want.

[Mr Mystery]

I'm not concerned about a Federal Europe. Given globalisation, such a thing remains an inevitability, and I can't see any good arguments for us to be on the outside looking in when that eventually occurs.

Commission can claim what it likes - they can't strip away our veto, and that veto can be applied to the most important rulings.

Did you hear Farage the other day? Cabinet Minister claims we can't stop Turkey joining, even though we can. We have a veto against new members. Farage? Oh yes well, there is a veto, but we won't use it. LEAVE THE EU!.

I mean....what is that chinless goon on?

[Psychosplodge]

Has anyone veto'd a country joining before? It might have bigger issues than us leaving, especially considering they're a military ally?

Best option is still to ignore the BS from all the politicians and just vote with your gut.

[grimmas]

Our manufacturing sector is already in recession. It is 6-7 years since the last one so another is coming anyway. In or out we'll have another soon.

[Mr Mystery]

Not to date that I'm aware of - but then each new country joining has to meet stringent requirements. It's far from the free-for-all UKIP like to make it out to be.

I've got no reason to doubt DC (for once!) when he says Turkey is a long way from meeting said requirements, and the whole '5.5 million by 2020' is scuppered utterly when you release the proposed new members are likewise a long way off meeting the requirements.

But yeah. My guy is saying 'no need to rock the boat'. And a large part of that comes from a deep suspicion about the motivations of those leading the Leave Campaign, and whether it's at all likely they have anything like national interest at heart (the answer is no. No they don't. It's a political sideshow and flimflammery designed to line their pockets and further their career).

Still, at least we'll get a full on Tory Civil War around June 24. They're always hilarious to watch as the chinless inbreds rip each other apart :)

[Psychosplodge]

Isn't 5.5 million based on existing numbers? And easily going to be met at the current rate?

Neither side has the national interest to heart when it comes to the politicians. It's all about whats best for them personally.

[Mr Mystery]

Nope - based on various countries joining in the next five minutes.

As for the argument 'they'll be attracted by our living wage'....well....yes, yes they will. But then they'll be paying tax in the UK, so no harm done. And if we can get our oiks off their sofas and into jobs, there'll be fewer jobs for them to come and do.

Sure, there may be pressure on infrastructure, but when did a Government last do anything about that? Certainly not in my lifetime (1980 to date. Nearly my birthday! Squee! I accept GW E-Vouchers, yeah?).

And to be honest.....whilst I have concerns about their overall sincerity, given they're Tories I kind of suspect DC and Gideon might not be acting entirely selfishly on this occasion. I can't see how they really benefit, given grass roots Tories want out out out....

[Psychosplodge]

So adding to the pressure is the sensible solution? :rolleyes:

They'll probably benefit in the same manner as the Kinnonck dynasty and end up in cushy safe EU jobs where they do little, eat well, and get a good salary for it.

[Mr Mystery]

Doing nothing isn't the answer - but then cutting immigration isn't going to achieve much either.

Indeed, if we're that concerned about migration, why not start controlling that which can already be controlled? EU migration makes up 50% of the total - so why aren't we tightening up on others?

[grimmas]

To be fair our infrastructure is failing due to what looks like deliberate Government underfunding and general lack of support, probably so they can justify changes to suit their personal agendas. Examples can be given if needed.

The question of Turkey is what can it bring to the party, it's not prosperous, it's treatment of its own people is poor to say the least and we don't really need extra people to anything. It's only going to strain the rest of the EU.

[Psychosplodge]

Indeed, if we're that concerned about migration, why not start controlling that which can already be controlled? EU migration makes up 50% of the total - so why aren't we tightening up on others?

Based on what you see on AskUK on reddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/AskUK/search?q=uk+visa&restrict_sr=on) its apparently very difficult to get a UK visa from a non EU country unless you're on the required skills list. There's always disappointed americans on there moaning about it.

[CoffeeGrunt]

Hilarious considering getting an American Visa is harder than trying to headbutt your way through a fence made of starved jaguars. Heaven help you if you ever got a slap on the wrist for owning a gram of blow as well, they count that on the same level as growing a billion dollar coke empire because them drugs is bad, 'kay? Then again, most Americans aren't aware of this because they've never had to touch the system. Hence their constant claims about how easy it is for others to come and turk ur jerbs being so hilariously inaccurate.

Maybe if the NHS wasn't being made into such a crappy place to work, then we wouldn't need to shore it up with underpaid foreign doctors to keep it running.

Besides, large companies hire internationally now anyway, sometimes it's the only way to get the necessary labour force. My team at work is comprised of two Americans, a Malaysian guy, a Portuguese lady, an Irish guy, a Welsh lady, an English guy, and me, (Scottish.) Simply because our native labour force is bloody useless most of the time.

[Kirsten]

I'm for staying personally, not that I get a vote. despite this being touted as a British referendum, it is in fact only a UK referendum that will affect all of Britain. the Leave campaign just haven't actually offered any kind of reason to do so, beyond vague claims of sovereignty and being British which don't hold up to scrutiny.

[Psychosplodge]

OMFG a 20% down turn in house prices? can we leave tomorrow?

(ok osbourne just said 18% on the radio but I rounded it.)

[Mr Mystery]

Oddly, that's the only thing which might persuade me to vote leave.

Then I remember I live in Sarf East England, and thus an 18% drop still won't help me none!

[Psychosplodge]

What is the Empire about?

Imperial Officer:Order!
Imperial Citizen:Stability!
Imperial Businessman:Trade!
The Emperor:My decades long quest to become an immortal godlike personification of the Dark Side of the Force.
All:Wat.
The Emperor:Joke's on you. Suckers.

Replace Empire with EU, Imperial with European... :D

Not sure who the Emperor is though

[Mr Mystery]

I suspect it'll be a different leader depending on which country you ask :p

[Psychosplodge]

Probably.

[grimmas]

Oddly, that's the only thing which might persuade me to vote leave.

Then I remember I live in Sarf East England, and thus an 18% drop still won't help me none!

I did think that was something that'd swing a few people in the opposing camps. I bought my house to live in rather than a short term investment so the a drop wouldn't bother me that much (and it's already gone up more than 18% since I bought it). Interest rates getting silly would be an issue though.

[CoffeeGrunt]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptfmAY6M6aA

[Psychosplodge]

ECHR isn't an EU thing, and lets face it the only reason anyone has an issue with it is the perverse and obscene way our judiciary seems to interpret it at times.

[Mr Mystery]

I did think that was something that'd swing a few people in the opposing camps. I bought my house to live in rather than a short term investment so the a drop wouldn't bother me that much (and it's already gone up more than 18% since I bought it). Interest rates getting silly would be an issue though.

Yup. And you think the last crash was bad for repossessions?

Thanks to the furore about PPI (a subject I probably know more about than 99.99999% of anyone, on account it's what I do for a job and I'm damned good at it), there's thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of people who have cancelled their Mortgage PPI. The one thing that can stand between you losing your job, and losing your job and your house..... And it's not just people who were actually mis-sold it (their bums were in the breeze all along in many cases), it's those who just complained on the off chance of munneh, because the TV told them they'd get £15,000 or more. Everyone of those complaints? A cancelled policy.....

So when the next recession hits (these things are inevitable, after all) we'll see the same number of people suddenly bereft of lifelines, and the following upswing in repossessions, and those houses being auctioned/sold off....at a time when house prices are already falling, adding to the impetus.

Well done, Telly. Well done indeed......

[Psychosplodge]

Don't some mortgages have it in the T&Cs that you're required to have some form of ppi cover?

[Mr Mystery]

Indeed. And there's nothing wrong with that. It's only a problem if the seller told you it was compulsory, and it wasn't.

But if the consumer is insistent it be cancelled (and a mis-selling complaint is insistence) the business has to do as they're told, on the assumption the consumer will seek out a replacement product (which are often better value).

How many d'you reckon actually did just that? I don't think it's that many at all, because the narrative is PPI BAD. When, actually, sold appropriately, it's a really nice thing to have, barring those policies which are frankly shocking!

[Psychosplodge]

Yeah I was just assuming you had to show that you had that alternative in place to your provider.

[Mr Mystery]

At the sale? Yes. Many self-employed people do seem to, as they'll have some form of income replacement cover (I get that through work for 70% of my wage - which considering it pays out Tax Free, and for as long as I'm spazzed up for up to retirement age (so, forever, seeing as I was born in 1980 and it's already up to 67...), is pretty solid!) so wouldn't necessarily need the compulsory cover.

But please trust me on this one. About a year to 18 months after the next recession hits? That's the time to buy. Provided you can get a mortgage of course.

[Psychosplodge]

Theres always that. As long as the Buy to Let scum don't snap them all up.

[Mr Mystery]

Ah, they get taxed on that now - it's not the easy munneh it once was. One can only assume Gideon and His Chums filled out their portfolio, so everyone else can get stuffed now.

[Mr Mystery]

A slightly leftfield article from Auntie (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36378655)

In short, our beloved Curry Houses are having a skills crisis, and the potential impact of Staying and Leaving are touched on.

Pretty neutral article, and I'll leave it to you have a read and digest.

Mostly, it's just made me want a Curry.

[Psychosplodge]

As its not something I eat its not going to affect me one way or another, but wouldn't being able to import actual Indians to make Indian food mean they don't have to spend potentially years training them to do it properly?
Does that also mean the kids aren't taking up the family business? Possibly through the government's(of both colours) push to send everyone to Uni?

[Mr Mystery]

According to the article, it seems the kids of Restaurant owners don't fancy the work, and prefer to claim benefits.

Quite the sweeping statement of course, and definitely the opinion of just one bloke (I suspect he has a lazy child in the background somewhere!)

I think that's a bit of a shame. Restaurant work is hard graft for relatively little money, but I found it was a good motivator for me to buck up and seek better employment. Then again, I am a bit weird.

But for Students, many restaurants have casual staff, and those roles work for Students. Being casual you can turn down shifts if your studies demand it, and the relatively inconsistent earnings are less of a bother than to someone with rent to pay etc (student rent often being covered by their student loans. Which is a subject I'm not gonna start on here, because that's nowt to do with Europe!)

[grimmas]

Does that also mean the kids aren't taking up the family business? Possibly through the government's(of both colours) push to send everyone to Uni?

Despite the fact that going to Uni has little affect generally on future earnings for men.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-36266753

They'd be quite sensible to get into the family business (don't forget we're talking Indians so culturally speaking it will be he fellas)

Although I'd add my mates from that area haven't taken up the family business, which stereotypical has been restaurants, and seem to be doing rather well.

[Mr Mystery]

Bangladeshi, actually

*shoves non-existent specs back up nose using solitary index finger*

[Psychosplodge]

Yeah but I didn't want to confuse the Americans cause they use asian differently to us.

[grimmas]

It did used to be all India

[Psychosplodge]

That as well. Till that Ghandi came along with his peaceful protests... :mad:

[grimmas]

Ahhhhh The Sun never set, rule Britannia and all that.

I thought the Indian sub continent was one of the places Brexiters had highlighted as worthy of some trade deals?

[Psychosplodge]

The traditional immigrant communities seem to be leaning to out when I've seen them interviewed on local news programs.

I think india is the one thats normally pointed at.

Also

https://what-if.xkcd.com/48/

[Mr Mystery]

Not strictly about the referendum, and I can't say I've fact checked it, but interesting nonetheless.

https://media.giphy.com/media/3o7qE0LUPba5CF3kMo/giphy.gif

[Psychosplodge]

Do you expect turkeys to vote for christmas as well? :rolleyes:
The communities I was referencing are probably second or third generation by now.

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What will be interesting is the result in Boston, the area on the map that are both the darkest colours overlapping

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What's also interesting is while UKIP are portrayed as extreme tories, their support map looks like a post election labour map.

[Mr Mystery]

Actually, non-EU migrants and persons from the Commonwealth does sort of make sense. After a fashion, and its again touched on in the article I shared earlier - the hope is that with restricted EU movement, we could loosen restrictions on Commonwealth, meaning family members etc could migrate here.

Sadly, with the current shower I fear that's hope over expectation, but hey - you can totally see and indeed appreciate their stance.

[Psychosplodge]

Anyone know how much it costs to paint an airbus?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36382471

[Mr Mystery]

12p.

Note that being an Irish company, they may very well be exempt from the rule.

[Psychosplodge]

You'd expect to have to abide by the rules of the country they operate in wouldn't you?

[Mr Mystery]

Well in that case then, Rupert Murdoch would have to go and crawl under a very heavy rock. Ideally one temporarily propped up by a stick. Tied to a string.

How much has The Scum spent making up nonsense?

[Kirsten]

it is a bit of a strange law really trying to stop private companies spending.

[Psychosplodge]

How much has The Scum spent making up nonsense?

What's their annual operating budget? :D

[Mr Mystery]

Well, they're only morally bankrupt so quite a lot I'd imagine.

Alsö - Boris as a Ringer theory.....

Is it just me, or does he continue to not so much pull his blows, but do them in a WWE kayfabe manner? I mean, the whole Hitler comment thing. Seems unlikely to persuade swing votes, and definitely not gonna change the mind of someone voting Remain.....

[Psychosplodge]

Did you watch "This Week" last night? Portillo and someone else said they thought if Cameron wasn't prime minister he would be 100% behind the leave campaign. There's definitely weird political games going on behind the scenes that are nothing to do with the EU and the referendum.

[Mr Mystery]

See, this is one of the things that genuinely, honestly confuses me about Call Me Dave's position.

He knows that by calling the referendum after confirming he'll step down in 2020, that he's now in stereoscopic sights of his rivals and opponents in the party.

Win or lose, it seems depressingly likely we'll see a Tory civil war which won't be as cool as Cap's one.

And if he's a natural Eurosceptic.....why is he campaigning to remain? Surely that's political suicide within his party. He'll be known to the party faithful that way, so going against it is, seemingly, a stupid move.

Frankly, I don't think he has an ounce of integrity in his body or soul, so 'yes I'd like us to leave, but the numbers just don't add up' isn't gonna cut it here. He's up to something. What? I dunno. Why? I dunno. And that has me genuinely worried. When someone that transparently nasty suddenly acts out of character.....

[Psychosplodge]

Maybe its the way to appeal to labour voters?

[Mr Mystery]

But he's leaving. So he won't care either way.

IDS and Gove suddenly pretending to care about the little people? That's them trying (and failing) to tempt the
lefties open to opinion.

But not Dave.

All very, very suspicious.

[Psychosplodge]

I meant to vote out. The ones that won't agree with anything a conservative prime minister says, rather than thinking about it and voting as they believe.

[Mr Mystery]

I dunno. Seems more likely to me that Dave might be wanting to be seen as falling on his sword in order to make the Tories the face of In and out.

They know they're in on a slim majority. So slim was their victory last year that nobody, not even the Tories, saw it coming. By controlling the entire debate internally (and they do, let's be fair) they help to halt the Goose Step March of UKIP amongst the Tory faithful, and help to prevent a new and popular Labour Leader from gaining the oxygen of the campaign.

I still think there's something more to it, but I can't see what it is. And that really worries me.

[Psychosplodge]

Two polls did but were dismissed as they were so out of step with the others.

Corbyn is anti EU though. His contribution to his pro EU party has essentially been to keep his mouth shut.

Probably some cushy overpaid EU job after he steps down.

[Kirsten]

Corbyn is against specific elements of the EU, not the EU as a whole.

[Psychosplodge]

I'd not seen that. I'd just seen him talked about as consistently anti eu

[Kirsten]

he is against some of the trade agreements as being anti worker if I remember rightly, but he has no issues with the idea of the EU, just typical tarring of Corbyn

[Mr Mystery]

Yup.

And if memory serves, he sees his issues as being things to work on, not walk away from?

[Kirsten]

yup

[Psychosplodge]

Yup.

And if memory serves, he sees his issues as being things to work on, not walk away from?

I thought that was only what he'd said since his supposed change of heart?
*shrugs*

[Mr Mystery]

Not so far as I'm aware :)

Though as a side note, if I see that stupid 'Daily Express Crusade' thing anywhere but on their front page, I'm gonna punch someone.

[grimmas]

He did vote against all the major EU/EEC treaties. I don't see how that's tarring perfectly reasonable stance. Both he and Call me Dave are not campaigning for their own personal preferences rather the stances of their parties. Politically speaking neither party can officially be leave it'd put them in a terrible position next election in we vote Remain

Interesting to see that apparently leaving the EU is now going to cause a "catastrophic" labour shortage, hmmm hang on that's a little contradictory with the other info from remain, it's almost as if people don't know what'll happen.

When not going on about another Scottish referendum Alex Salmond sounded rather balanced in the debate last night. He is a rather good orator. Shame really he would have been what Labour would've needed if he wasn't quite the Scottish Nationalist he is.

[Psychosplodge]

Like you say when he wasn't going on about Scotland, it's the most reasonable I've seen him sound.
I thought Liam Fox? shut him down well when he brought up another Scottish referendum.

What genuinely scared me was the shortsightedness of the young voters. They really seem to buy the end of the world apocalypse view the remain is selling. I don't understand how someone only a decade younger than me can not have the same cynicism about anything a politician says when they're in arguably a worse position regarding jobs/uni/housing than even we were at their age.

[CoffeeGrunt]

it is a bit of a strange law really trying to stop private companies spending.

Anti-lobbying. Saves the sort of stuff American politics runs on.

On the note of Uni, that's quite interesting in terms of women vastly outdoing men in applications. I can't speak any more than anecdotally, but perhaps it's tied to the belief among a lot of young men that Uni is worthless, and it's better to learn a trade or work through your career rather than get qualifications?

May also be worth looking at the likelihood of getting jobs for both genders. E.g., if boys are more likely for an uncle or dad to get them a job, delaying or putting off Uni, whereas girls get less options in that regard, and therefore have to work through uni to get qualified for stuff.

[grimmas]

Anti-lobbying. Saves the sort of stuff American politics runs on.

On the note of Uni, that's quite interesting in terms of women vastly outdoing men in applications. I can't speak any more than anecdotally, but perhaps it's tied to the belief among a lot of young men that Uni is worthless, and it's better to learn a trade or work through your career rather than get qualifications?

May also be worth looking at the likelihood of getting jobs for both genders. E.g., if boys are more likely for an uncle or dad to get them a job, delaying or putting off Uni, whereas girls get less options in that regard, and therefore have to work through uni to get qualified for stuff.

It certainly was suggested that the low gains men experience from going to Uni was one of the reasons. In my experience this is true (I went to uni but the academic education hasn't helped me since)

The school system in the UK does have some serious issues when it come to young men thorough particularly those from poorer backgrounds.

But if leaving the EU creates a skills shortage where it's been suggested this isn't really going to be an issue as there's going to be plenty for these young men to get into without an academic education

[Mr Mystery]

Like you say when he wasn't going on about Scotland, it's the most reasonable I've seen him sound.
I thought Liam Fox? shut him down well when he brought up another Scottish referendum.

What genuinely scared me was the shortsightedness of the young voters. They really seem to buy the end of the world apocalypse view the remain is selling. I don't understand how someone only a decade younger than me can not have the same cynicism about anything a politician says when they're in arguably a worse position regarding jobs/uni/housing than even we were at their age.

I'd say it's because all they see those that stole the ladder up banging on about is leaving Europe - and that would make things worse for them in the long term.

[Psychosplodge]

I'd say it's because all they see those that stole the ladder up banging on about is leaving Europe - and that would make things worse for them in the long term.

But the same generation are selling the end of the world if we leave.

[Mr Mystery]

Only recently.

Post-War want out because they fear it costs them money, and because the gutter press won't shut up about it.

Plus, younger generations apparently tend to poll better for describing themselves as European.

[Psychosplodge]

I think people that left school and went into some sort of training have generally got their **** together better than the people that went to uni. I can't think of anyone that's done particularly well from going to uni.
And you might have a point CG I got my "interview" at my current place like that.

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describing themselves as European.

Sounds like treason :D

[Kirsten]

Jeremy Corbyn wrote a guest article for the Huffington Post on the referendum

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/jeremy-corbyn/eu-referendum-young-people_b_10210102.html?1464677690&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067

[Psychosplodge]

Lack of housing, and lack of entry level jobs can both be attributed to being in europe - among the causes, not the sole cause.

The idea of reforming europe is already dead. More than half the countries, or at least their politicians, are pro federalism.
And even those that aren't are happy to jump on the gravy train to fill their own pockets.
Look at the kinnock dynasty.
For a man whos voted against anything to do with the EU repeatedly it still makes no sense.

[Psychosplodge]

As if the referendum hasn't turned into enough of a farce since descending into a **** slinging contest, MPs are considering ignoring the spirit of the result if it goes against them. I can't think of a bigger example of contempt for the electorate since the expenses scandal

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120

[Mr Mystery]

Meh. If it's the economically correct thing to do, it's the economically correct thing to do.

We can either be part of the larger bargaining collective, or believe stuff coming out the mouths of some of Britain's biggest liars.

[Psychosplodge]

No it's a deliberate attempt to circumvent what people are actually voting for - leaving or staying.


We can either be part of the larger bargaining collective, or believe stuff coming out the mouths of some of Britain's biggest liars.

That pretty much applies to believing anyone on either side.

[Mr Mystery]

Well, Leave have been caught outright lying on multiple occasions.

Gove wants us to leave the single market, but hasn't offered one single workable alternative that he's not later backtracked on - so I see no sense in walking away from that.

[Psychosplodge]

Of course he has he's a politician, its what happens when their mouths move. The fact three quarters support the EU suggests there's something wrong with it.

The point is to exit the EU. Then sort the details as it suits us. Leave don't need to offer the details, they aren't the government they don't have the power to implement anything. All they can do is point out what could be possibly done.

[CoffeeGrunt]

A majority of politicians support breathing. Sometimes a majority can be right, it doesn't have to be a conspiracy.

[Psychosplodge]

lols :p

They probably don't for the electorate, just for themselves.

[CoffeeGrunt]

Again, it doesn't have to be a conspiracy. In fact, it's almost certainly counter to it, given that getting everyone to agree to something that, were they to reveal it genuinely was bad for the British people, would lose them votes is silly. You can't get that many people with deliberately opposing views to co-ordinate on something like that, especially politicians.

[Psychosplodge]

No its not a conspiracy. Its about getting themselves on the gravytrain sometime in the future, just like the Kinnock dynasty.

[Mr Mystery]

To date, Leave haven't managed to come up with a coherent set of arguments as to why we should leave the EU.

They've changed their minds on a seemingly daily basis, claim ridiculous things like nine out of ten economists are lying 'because reasons'.

This is a massive thing for the UK. And without any convincing arguments from Leave, surely Remain is the only valid option, because we know what we're in for and precisely where we stand.

[Kirsten]

yup, very much so. Leave is just about nonsensical patriotism and vague claims of things being better. 'we must take back our laws from the EU' even though we make most of our own. 'we must take back our sovereignty' which we never lost. 'we must control immigration' despite the massive economic boost it brings us, and not including emigration obviously because ex-pats in Spain are totally different.

[Psychosplodge]

The economists have been wrong about every major financial prediction and event in the last several decades, so are basically irrelevant.

We have lost our sovereignty though. If the european court can overall parliament, parliament is no longer sovereign.

Lets face it most of the ex-pats in spain are pensioners, spending money the UK government sends them on spanish goods and services. I suppose if they're repatriated to the UK some of them would die earlier in the winter compared to being in spain so might save us something that way.

[Mr Mystery]

So economists have a wonky track record. Leave still haven't given anything to show we'd be better off. Nothing at all.

Gove considers EU work laws excessive - but the slimey little toad won't tell us exactly which ones he wants abolished - and he's definitely not the man I want working on such things.

[Psychosplodge]

He's not going to be in charge of anything though is he?
Too many people are choosing the set of politicians they like the least rather than the issue itself. Granted it doesn't help that both sets have done little beyond fling **** at each other.

[CoffeeGrunt]

Track record is irrelevant, you deal with the data at hand, and the data implies that leaving the EU will present problems. Besides, we only ever hear about it when economists are wrong, because otherwise things continue on as they were. The same way you only hear about the odd doctor botching a surgery and killing a patient on the news, not the thousands daily who do their job just fine.

In the absence of any data to prove leaving the EU would help us, nor any detailed plan of what, exactly, will happen, I personally feel the status quo is the best option.

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Plus, as Mystery implies, I hear an awful lot about all these EU laws we need to get rid of, but everyone is being very coy about which laws. I've heard anti-monopoly laws mentioned, as well as fisheries laws and the ol' "'Elf an' Safety." These are all things thoroughly built into British legislation anyway, so BrExit won't affect them.

[Kirsten]

as for EU laws that affect us, they aren't arbitrary. British MEPs voted on them and didn't veto them. it isn't as though they are being made up on the spot and applied at random.

[Psychosplodge]

I'm sure they had data to make their previous predictions as well CG :D

[Mr Mystery]

There's just something very, very fishy about the Leave movement, and it's not just Gove's face.

Lots of 'yes, but that's bad, and this is wonky', absolutely no 'so we'll do it this way'.

And the whole Tory Bunfight thing has ceased to be amusing, and is now downright troubling. They're the party in power at the moment, and I'm fairly sure that come what may, Call Me Dave will be getting a dagger in the back some time around 24 June 2016. Which means BoJo and Gove will likely be PM and Deputy PM (or worse, some cretin might put Gove in charge of the economy *shudders*).

They're the ones that if we leave, will be setting the agenda. They're the ones saying many of our most important EU backed laws are 'excessive'.

They're the ones refusing to say exactly which bits they'd like to trim off.

Paid leave? Potentially up for the chop.
Legal maximum working hours? Potentially up for the chop.
Paid overtime? Potentially up for the chop.

Do you see how terrifying this is?

[CoffeeGrunt]

I'm sure they had data to make their previous predictions as well CG :D

Which means what? No data in existence matters because one time, someone misinterpreted some?

[Psychosplodge]

That they had data for every major prediction and still got it wrong, so there's probably about as much chance of them getting right by flipping a coin?

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We've only had paid leave since 1938. Good job they got that us.

No one will work overtime for no money. Or do you mean for an increased rate? That's contractual anyway not legal right?
Workers rights aren't set by the EU or why would eastern europe have poorer workers rights?

[CoffeeGrunt]

That they had data for every major prediction and still got it wrong, so there's probably about as much chance of them getting right by flipping a coin?

Which predictions?

[Psychosplodge]

ERM, euro, the never ending propserity that burst with a massive downturn in was it 08?

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I can't believe we've got another three weeks of it though ffs.

[CoffeeGrunt]

Who made claims that those things wouldn't happen?

[Psychosplodge]

The imf, apparently, I do vaguely remember the news being full of doom and gloom about us not joining the euro.

I'm too young to really remember the ERM, but considering no one seems to be disputing it when leave supporters have said it was said it'd be negative for us to leave that and it wasn't I assume that must be historically accurate.

Every financial report on tv seemed to suggest we had unending properity in the noughties. Well if you were already on the housing ladder.

[CoffeeGrunt]

Every news outlet also seems to imply crime is skyrocketing, terrorists are literally under your doormat, and migrants are stealing your jobs and wimmin. Despite objective fact proving it all wrong.

[Mr Mystery]

The whole leaving the single market thing.

Basically, you're playing Blackjack. The aim of which of course is to get to closer to 21 in total than the other players, without going over.

As it stands, we have a hand of 17. It's not great. It's quite likely other players have a stronger hand. But then, it's actually a fairly high hand, all things considered.

So our decision is stick, or twist.

Most gamblers would be able to weigh up the odds exactly, based on what cards we know are already in play, assuming a single 52 card deck.

Except here? Well, we know what our hand is. We could twist on 17, hoping to get a four, but ultimately willing to settle for even a 3 or a 2. An Ace would help to shore up the strength.

But we don't know what cards everyone else is holding - so we have no way of knowing what the actual chances are of us improving our hand or hitting 21, or busting. So we have to instead base the entire calculation off the cards in front of us.

Pretty sure sticking is the sensible thing to do there.

This terrible analogy brought to you by Mystery Industries.

Mystery Industries, because better the devil you know, than unleashing the Tories without any kind of restraint.

[Psychosplodge]

There's loads of those going round mystery

If you don’t understand what all the fuss is about. Here is the EU put simply.
A son goes to his Dad having saved up some money from his weekend job.
Son “ Dad I’ve saved up £350 pounds to buy the new laptop I need for my college course”
Dad “Well done son, give the money to me and I’ll help you”
Son “Ok now what?”
Dad “I will allow you £185 pounds back less my handling fee of £5 so £180 which you may only spend on a new phone”
Son “But I need a laptop!”
Dad “No, we’ve decided you can only buy a phone and you may only buy a phone from Germany and it must be pink. You must also source the phone within 2 days otherwise I will not release the money”
Son “But it’s my money!”
Dad “I’m afraid you are a member of this family and you must contribute to everyone else’s needs. I will decide how the money is spent”
Son “So what happens to the £165?”
Dad “Well your sister needs a new dress”
Son “She has already had many new dresses”
Dad “We’ve put it to the vote and I’m afraid you’re outvoted”
Son “But I need a laptop to continue my course!”
Dad “My decision is final”
Son “But that’s not fair, will I ever have a say in how my money is spent”
Dad “No, and by the way we’ve got a couple more people moving into your room and you’ll have to pay for their keep”
Son “Well I’m leaving then”
Dad “Don’t be like that lad, we need your money. And if you leave you won’t be able to buy a pink phone from Germany you’ll have to buy one here instead”
Son “I NEED A LAPTOP!”

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Every news outlet also seems to imply crime is skyrocketing, terrorists are literally under your doormat, and migrants are stealing your jobs and wimmin. Despite objective fact proving it all wrong.

Well yeah, and the sky is falling.
The remain is obsessed with the economic argument because we don't know what will happen that's true, but we don't know either way.
And they've lost the sovereignty one.

[CoffeeGrunt]

Is it actually like that, though? I mean, I don't trust Facebook memey simplifications of politics at the best of times.

[grimmas]

As if the referendum hasn't turned into enough of a farce since descending into a **** slinging contest, MPs are considering ignoring the spirit of the result if it goes against them. I can't think of a bigger example of contempt for the electorate since the expenses scandal

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120

F**k me that's a serious claim. Just go to show how politicians think. I knew "freedom" was a bit of a sham but not to the scale suggested here.

[Psychosplodge]

F**k me that's a serious claim. Just go to show how politicians think. I knew "freedom" was a bit of a sham but not to the scale suggested here.

It's the biggest example of "if voting changed owt they'd abolish it" I've ever seen

[CoffeeGrunt]

Well yeah, and the sky is falling.
The remain is obsessed with the economic argument because we don't know what will happen that's true, but we don't know either way.
And they've lost the sovereignty one.

We do know one way. If we Remain, things go on as they are. If we Leave, a new system is put in place. It may be favourable, it may not. t's all about whether we want to gamble or not.

I'm okay with a couple of quid on the roulette table or charging Guardsmen into a Carnifex, but I know my odds - roughly - and the loss is minimal. In this, we don't know the odds because the system hasn't even been envisioned yet, and the loss could be pretty severe. It could work out great, but we're leaving it to the same politicians you distrust so heavily to build that system.

[Psychosplodge]

Is it actually like that, though? I mean, I don't trust Facebook memey simplifications of politics at the best of times.

Its a silly meme there's ****loads going round for both sides. Like spam emails they have a certain target audience, the rest of just laugh at them right?

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We do know one way. If we Remain, things go on as they are. If we Leave, a new system is put in place. It may be favourable, it may not. t's all about whether we want to gamble or not.


We already know the political elite in the EU want more intergration.
We know we can't trust our government to use their veto to stop it -masstricht, lisbon.
we know when someone does say no they do it again and again till they get the answer they want - Ireland, lisbon.
We know the mainland EU is in decline and is only currently being propped up by northwestern europe.

[grimmas]

It's the biggest example of "if voting changed owt they'd abolish it I've ever seen"

And what's really worrying is this is coming from the supposed "nice" politicians.

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Its a silly meme there's ****loads going round for both sides. Like spam emails they have a certain target audience, the rest of just laugh at them right?

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We already know the political elite in the EU want more intergration.
We know we can't trust our government to use their veto to stop it -masstricht, lisbon.
we know when someone does say no they do it again and again till they get the answer they want - Ireland, lisbon.
We know the mainland EU is in decline and is only currently being propped up by northwestern europe.

Just a touch. Italy, Greece and certainly Spain are in terrible order and Ireland has been rather rocky

[Kirsten]

lol, so Brexit politicians continue to spin bull**** scare stories and that is supposedly news

[Mr Mystery]

And they've somehow labelled Remain as 'project fear', despite their own campaign being made of racism, jingoistic nonsense and non-stop wishful thinking devoid of factual accuracies.

[Kirsten]

"Letter to friends: this is why I will vote Remain in the referendum"

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/27/dear-friends-this-is-why-i-will-vote-remain-in-the-referendum/

from the London School of Economics

[grimmas]

And they've somehow labelled Remain as 'project fear', despite their own campaign being made of racism, jingoistic nonsense and non-stop wishful thinking devoid of factual accuracies.

Well the Remain campaign has been shown to have some rather overblown "facts" as well. Pants campaigns all round really. Remain should have gone with "what the EU has done for us" rather than "don't leave it'll be WAAARRR".

I do rather like how ex pats who've move to warm climates can't vote, spliters.

[Psychosplodge]

I'm genuinely surprised they didn't try to rig it by giving resident EU citizens the vote.

[Mr Mystery]

Some can, depends how long you've lived outside of the UK.

I think a long term ex-pats in Spain lost a legal bid to be able to vote in the referendum.

And here's some words of wisdom from Britain's Sweariest Grin-Mag, Viz (not a reflection of folk on this thread! Just sharing for Lols)


IMMIGRANTS! Re-brand yourselves as ex-pats, then British people won't expect you learn the language or integrate

[Psychosplodge]

That pulp fiction poster is terrifying Mystery.
Though the bumf with it is hilarious? lowest contributor? really lmao.

[Mr Mystery]

So these laws allegedly 'foisted' upon us by the EU, despite that we have to vote to ratify them, and hold a veto....

Exactly which ones are meant to be the ones we didn't want, and are bad?

(semi-rhetorical, to highlight that Leave have been depressingly vague about such things, despite banging on and on about them)

[Psychosplodge]

*shrugs*
Idk because it the politicians who point at unpopular stuff and blame europe so who the **** actually knows?

I mean the most obvious one is probably not being able to actually control the border? because that's the one they argue about the most.

[Mr Mystery]

Meh.

As a nation, we've got a cheek about demanding secure borders, given our hideously chequered history when it comes to respecting the borders of others...

Spesh as Migration is shown to a have a net benefit!

Even so - we could've, but didn't, veto that. So hardly one 'foisted upon us'.

Again, this is why I can't take Leave seriously. There's being economical with the truth, then there's politicking. Then there's outright lying.

[Psychosplodge]

How can you possibly trust any figures on that when they always support the agenda of the group that's presenting them?

I think the dutch prime minister had a great idea though. They'll respond in kind to migration restrictions. Which considering it's our skilled workers that generally emigrate it should benefit us if they're forced to stay. Though considering the idea is supposedly to still allow skilled workers to come it might not have any effect on emigrating brits if they go tit for tat? who knows?

[Mr Mystery]

More studies show a net benefit than those that show they're simultaneously TOOK YOUR JURB and CLAIM YOUR BENEFITS!

And to be honest, those that show a negative side? Usually trumped up by Das Daily Mail and Das Daily Express, even though the methodology is well shonky.

Like the time Das Daily Express asked 1,500 poor, unemployed Turks if they'd move to the UK if it meant a better life, and then declared every single Turk is poor, unemployed and desperate to get to the UK.

[Psychosplodge]

Come on its not fair using the express for any kind of example of anything except spoof headlines.
Cause we all know its something something diana something hottest/coldest season ever something.

It's still just a numbers game to me. There's no benefit in adding a third of a million people to the population a year while the infrastructure isn't there.

[Mr Mystery]

And conversely, there's no telling just how badly our economy could derail as the result of Leaving, and absolutely no guarantee we'd be anywhere but the end of a very long queue when it comes to negotiating new trade deals.

In the world of globalised finance and trade, it simply doesn't do to show weakness. We'd most likely be sitting ducks for the poopy end of every stick.

[Psychosplodge]

Do you honestly believe that? It'll mostly be business as usual for the the multinationals.
The thing it might stop them doing though is shuffling stuff round europe to avoid tax?

[Mr Mystery]

Or indeed, departing these shores altogether, in order to get one the better end of the trade deals.

Even if it's literally just a change of head office address, the exchequer loses income, and the economy loses some top paying jobs as we become the equivalent of a provincial branch.

Just too many unknowns to bail on the EU.

[Psychosplodge]

It's a sinking ship, or maybe a sinking pyramid scheme.

[Mr Mystery]

I don't think it is at all.

Yes, there's some weaknesses, but nothing that can't be fixed. And let's face it, if a global player like the EU goes down, we're going down with them regardless, because that's how globalisation works.

[Psychosplodge]

Not really. It depends on the individual countries. I mean if it hadn't been for the euro Greece could have been ignored to deal with its own financial mismanagement issues like venezuela pretty much is being now

[Mr Mystery]

IMF would've stepped in.

Thing is, the EU is an evolving thing. Lessons can be learned. Issue with Greece? Nobody called them on their financial stupidity, anymore than anyone called the US on idiocy like 'No Income, No Job' loans, because everyone got greedy and persuaded themselves nothing could possibly ever go wrong, because property only ever goes up in value.

Except when it crashes, of course.

Then there's the behaviour of the gutter press in the UK. Our troubles were largely kicked off with Northern Rock - which was at the time experiencing some liquidity issues. Then press coverage started a run on in...which definitely killed it off. Might have gone under all the same, but we'll never know thanks to Middle England's bizarre hysterics.

[Al Shut]

there's [...] absolutely no guarantee we'd be anywhere but the end of a very long queue when it comes to negotiating new trade deals.

I thought Brits like lo line up in queues.

Don't forget Europe will want those deals too, front half of the queue at least.

I noticed a focus on the economic side of the argument, aren't there any 'convinced Europeans' who think the EU is a good idea on itself?

On the topic of sovereignty, what is the UK's stance on glyphosate for instance?

[Mr Mystery]

Back of the queue behind Europe and everyone else, if we leave :)

I think the EU is a superb idea.

Sovereignty doesn't bother me in the slightest, because it's a made up nonsense. Given the UK is run by, for and on behalf of Old Etonians and the City of London, anywhere Not London gets shafted anyhow, so less sovereignty doesn't make a blind bit of difference.

[grimmas]

It is a superb idea. It's execution leads a lot to be desired though. When we look at how things have happend on Greece (who had been bankrupt at least once before they joined the EU) and Ireland it starts to look like a pyramid scheme. It represents the worlds largest economy eveyone else should be showering the lot of us with preferential trade deals but instead we all seem to be getting the shaft (I notice the French and Germans people aren't too happy either)

Of course we've seen that retaining pounds Sterling does insulate us from the worst of the buffoonery just a little.

On the subject of immigrantion we do want lots of younger semi transient ones. 1 because of VAT they will be paying tax regardless and 2 they'll tend to be healthy and not use the NHS that much which means we can use them to pay for it. A bit like the days of the Empire really just without the added expense of having to invade anywhere.

[Path Walker]

And when we pull out all the old sick "ex-pats" in Spain will come back and drain our poor poor NHS.

I've not probably with us all just being European, being "British" isn't part of my identity, its just a place I happened to have been born, I'm not proud of it because I had nothing to do with it.

[grimmas]

Conversely I don't think Spain will be too keen to chuck them out either way as they kind of do the same thing for them.

To be honest it's a plus point for the EU really, old gits out, new blood in. Though I think there is a reciprocal agreement with the Spanish we do seem to be sending them more old people than we're getting back 😉