40k Balance Meets Mephiston

[Judge]

A Short Explanation of Dice Odds:

When you roll a 6 sided die, the odds of every outcome are equal - 1/6.
When you roll two 6 sided dice, the odds of every outcome are equal - 1/36 - but the odds of any given total are not.

Example: The odds of rolling a total of 2 are 1/36 - 1/6 for a 1 * 1/6 for another 1.

As your totals move from extremes (2 or 12) to center (7), odds of your total occurring increase.

Example: The odds of rolling a total of 7 are 1/6 - 1/36 odds for each a 1 and a 6, 2 and 5, 3 and 4, 4 and 3, 5 and 2, 6 and 1. Add the likelihood of each individual result together for 1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36 +1/36 +1/36 + 1/36. Your total will be 6/36 or 1/6.

The odds of each number total on 2d6 are as follows:
2: 1/36
3: 2/36 (1/18)
4: 3/36 (1/12)
5: 4/36 (1/8)
6: 5/36 (1/7.2)
7: 6/36 (1/6)
8: 5/36 (1/7.2)
9: 4/36 (1/8)
10: 3/36 (1/12)
11: 2/36 (1/18)
12: 1/36

To find the odds of scoring a range (equal to and under a leadership of 7, for example), sum all odds from 7 to 2. 6/36 + 5/36 + 4/36 + 3/36 + 2/36 + 1/36 = 21/36, 7/12, or 58.3%. The odds of a 6 or less would therefore be 15/36, 5/12, or 41.7%.


Assumptions:

All Other Things Being Equal
(No outside interference from unlisted squads. If you have free squads to jump in, then so does your opponent, especially if his army all has jumpacks).
Absent Psychic Interference, Psychic Tests Pass
(1/12 chances to fail do add up, but no single battle listed here will last long enough for that to be likely).
Derivatives Only
(To avoid listing actual unit statlines, only results from comparative statlines will be listed).
Cost Percentages Indicate Relative Unit Costs
(Mephiston cost / Opponent cost. The lower the percentage, the less relatively expensive Mephiston is. The higher, the higher. In most scenarios, a cost ratio range of .95 - 1.05 will be aimed for. The first match is a noteworthy exception).
No Charge
(Mephiston is more likely to be the charger due to size, fleet and jump abilities).
No Shooting
(Given a 17"-24" potential assault range and tiny model size [facilitating easy hiding], Mephiston should be able to avoid getting shot by hiding behind terrain / allied squads to directly block LoS. A more likely scenario that Mephiston will get to shoot his pistol before assaulting will also be discounted, but should be remembered, as per the No Charge and Psychic Tests Pass assumptions).
No Transfixing Gaze Unless It Significantly Effects The Outcome
(Transfixing Gaze will be used the first match to show why. It can strongly impact fighting, but is simply unecessary in most of the cases listed).
Mephiston Will Not Use Unleash Rage
(The Sanguine Sword psychic ability may be used at the start of either player's assault phase to effect close combat attacks made that round, thus additional psychic uses per round will be reserved. Practically speaking, Unleash Rage would become available in the second turn for the third round of combat, but will not be used here unless otherwise noted for reasons soon to be apparent).
51% = Oblivion
(The battle ends when there's a >50% chance of the last unit losing its last wound).

Mephiston Vs. Nightbringer

Round 1:

Nightbringer uses Etheric Tempest. No effect.
Mephiston uses Transfixing Gaze. 58.3% chance of success.

If Transfixing Gaze succeeds.
Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston stikes. 4.45 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 3.71 wounds.
Nightbringer saves. 1.86 wounds taken.
Force weapon passes. Nightbringer dies.
Mephiston wins. Wounds remaining: 5/5.

If Transfixing Gaze fails.
Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.78 wounds.
Nightbringer saves. 1.39 wounds taken.
Force weapon passes. Nightbringer dies.
Mephiston wins. Wounds remaining: 5/5.

Cost Percentage = 69%

Mephiston vs. 2 Avatars

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 2.5 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.08 wounds.
Avatars save. 1.04 wounds taken.
1 Avatar dies.
Avatar strikes. 2.67 hits.
Avatar wounds. 1.34 wounds.
Mephiston cannot save. 1.34 wounds taken.

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 2.5 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.08 wounds.
Avatar saves. 1.04 wounds taken.
Avatar dies.
Mephiston wins. Wounds remaining: 4/5.

Cost Percentage = 81%

Mephiston vs. 3 Wraithlords w. Wraithswords

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.78 wounds.
1 Wraithlord dies, 1 takes 1.78 wounds.
Wraithlords strike. 3 hits.
Wraithlords wound. 2.5 wounds.

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.78 wounds.
2 Wraithlords die.
Mephiston wins. 2.5/5 wounds remaining.

Cost Percentage: 83%

Mephiston vs. Trygon Prime

Additional Assumptions: No Psychic Powers because of Shadow in the Warp. If attempted, each use has a 50% chance of success. Odds of Perils of the Warp for each use: 1/6. Please note that Transfixing Gaze is not a Psychic Power and uses a Leadership test - not morale - so Synapse would not apply, but also not used in this scenario because it's not necessary. If used, Mephiston would likely win at the top of Round 3 with 2 wounds remaining. If psychic powers were used, Mephiston would likely win in Round 1 with 5 wounds remaining. This fight illustrates the nature of Mephiston's raw stats without enhancement.

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 1.67 wounds.
Trygon Prime strikes. 3 hits.
Trygon Prime wounds. 1.5 wounds.

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 1.67 wounds.
Trygon Prime strikes. 3 hits.
Trygon Prime wounds. 1.5 wounds.

Round 3:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 1.67 wounds.
Trygon Prime strikes. 3 hits.
Trygon Prime wounds. 1.5 wounds.

Round 4:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 1.67 wounds.
Mephiston wins. Wounds remaining: 0.5/5

Cost Percentage: 104%

Mephiston vs. Swarmlord

If Transfixing Gaze and Sanguine Sword both succeed. 29% chance.

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.75 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 3.65 wounds.
Swarmlord saves. 1.83 wounds.
92% chance of Force Weapon check succeeding. Swarmlord dies.
Mephiston wins.

If Transfixing Gaze succeeds and Sanguine Sword fails. 29% chance.

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.75 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.81 wounds.
Swarmlord saves. 1.41 wounds.
71% chance of Force Weapon check succeeding. Swarmlord dies.
Mephiston wins.

If Transfixing Gaze fails and Sanguine Sword succeeds. 21% chance.

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 2.5 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.08 wounds.
Swarmlord saves. 1.04 wounds.
52% chance of Force Weapon check succeeding. Swarmlord dies.
Mephiston wins.

If Transfixing Gaze and Sanguine Sword both fail. 21% chance

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 2.5 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 1.25 wounds.
Swarmlord saves. .63 wounds taken.
32% chance of Force Weapon check succeeding. Swarmlord lives.
Swarmlord strikes. 2.67 hits.
Swarmlord wounds. 1.34 wounds.
Mephiston dies.
Swarmlord wins.

79% of scenarios result in Mephiston's win with 5/5 wounds remaining. Weighted odds of Mephiston scoring the killing blow are 65%. If Mephiston does not score the first killing blow, it is likely, but not certain, that the Swarmlord will kill Mephiston at the bottom of the first round of combat.

Cost Percentage: 89%

Mephiston vs. 2 Death Company Dreadnaughts

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston damages. 2.22 Penetrating hits. .56 Glancing hits.
1 Dreadnaught Destroyed.
Dreadnaught strikes. 2 hits.
Dreadnaught wounds. 1.67 wounds.

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston damages. 2.22 Penetrating hits. .56 Glancing hits.
Dreadnaught Immobilized/Weapon Destroyed/Shaken/Stunned.
Dreadnaught strikes. 2 hits.
Dreadnaught wounds. 1.67 wounds.

Round 3:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston damages. 2.22 Penetrating hits. .56 Glancing hits.
Dreadnaught Destroyed.
Mephiston wins. 2/5 wounds remaining.

Cost Percentage: 100%


Mephiston vs. Abaddon the Despoiler

Additional Assumptions: Due to initial errors on my part, this scenario has been rerun. My apologies. However, due to nitpicking, Mephiston will use the full range of his abilities (as will Abaddon), to include fleet moving for the charge. If you want to presume that Abaddon gets a round of shooting off first (and Mephiston doesn't), subtract 0.03 wounds from Mephiston.

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Transfix Gaze, Sanguine Sword succeed.
Mephiston strikes. 6 attacks (/2)
Reroll misses (3/2)
Mephiston wounds (4.5*5/6)
Reroll failed wounds (.75*5/6)
4.37 wounds
Abaddon saves (4.37/2)
2.19 wounds taken. (1.81 remaining).
Abaddon's initiative.
Daemon weapon yields 3.5 extra attacks, no daemon attack. 7.5 attacks total.
Abaddon strikes. 7.5 attacks (/2)
Abaddon wounds (3.75*5/6)
Reroll failed wounds (.63*5/6)
3.65 wounds (1.35 remaining).

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Transfix Gaze fails, Sanguine Sword succeeds, Unleash Rage succeeds.
Mephiston strikes. 5 attacks (/2)
Reroll misses (2.5/2)
Mephiston wounds (3.75*5/6)
3.13 wounds
Abaddon saves (3.65/2)
1.57 wounds taken. (0.24 remaining).
Abaddon dies.

Mephiston wins. 1.35/5 wounds remaining.
Cost Percentage: 91%

Mephiston vs. 11 Khorne Berzerkers

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.78 wounds.
3 Berzerkers die.
8 Khorne Berzerkers strike. 12 hits.
8 Khorne Berzerkers wound. 2 wounds.
Mephiston saves. .33 wounds.

Round 2:
Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.78 wounds.
3 Berzerkers die.
5 Khorne Berzerkers strike. 7.5 hits.
5 Khorne Berzerkers wound. 1.25 wounds.
Mephiston saves. .21 wounds.

Round 3:
Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.78 wounds.
2 Berzerkers die.
3 Khorne Berzerkers strike. 4.5 hits.
3 Khorne Berzerkers wound. .75 wounds.
Mephiston saves. .13 wounds.

Round 4:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.33 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.78 wounds.
3 Berzerkers die.
Mephiston wins. 4/5 wounds remaining.

Cost Percentage: 108%

Mephiston vs. Logan Grimnar

Additional Assumptions: The Axe of Morkai will be used as a powerfist. Logan will use Living Legend in the first round of combat.
Note: Sanguine Sword does not effect Logan directly, thus it is not negated by Wolf-Tail Talisman, but has no pratical effect against this opponent either way, thus Unleash Rage will be used instead.

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 4.45 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 3.71 wounds.
Logan saves. 1.86 wounds.
Logan strikes. 3 hits.
Logan wounds. 2.5 wounds.

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 4.45 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 3.71 wounds.
Logan saves. 1.86 wounds.
Logan dies.
Mephiston wins. 2.5/5 wounds remaining.

Cost Percentage: 91%


Conclusions Based Upon Results:

1) 5th edition armies have more powerful melee than 3rd and 4th edition armies, as evidenced by relative performance of superior melee units, to such a degree that players using 3rd and 4th edition armies might well consider not playing with/against players using 5th edition armies. Note that while Mephiston kills 5th edition characters as well as 3th and 4th edition characters, he does so with greater difficulty, often receiving wounds in the process.
2) Instant Death weapon units with high initiative have a comparative advantage against units not possessing instant death weapons.
3) Mephiston's performance is not in keeping with unit cost.

So who was expecting better performance out of Abaddon? Did Nightbringer teach you nothing?

The preceding body of evidence includes many of the strongest melee models available as listed in their most recent codexes (Necrons - 3rd, Eldar, Chaos - 4th, Space Wolves, Tyranids - 5th). Orks, traditional melee specialists, were not given representation here because, lacking 3rd edition Choppa effects and given high costs for Power Klaws, there's simply no feasible way for Str 4, non-power weapon wielding, non-instant death causing Nobs and Warbosses to effectively threaten a Toughness 6, 5 wound, terminator armor wearing monstrosity, especially one with a Str 10 weapon to negate their multiple wounds. Yes, Mephiston out-stats Ghazghkull.

There are effective ways to implement "damage control" against Mephiston, the most apparently viable being:

1) The Lure. Place a tempting (but low-cost) model or unit within Mephiston's immediate assault range (17"-24"), and, after it's died in 1 round, shoot Mephiston with everything you've got. This does not address the rest of the Blood Angel army, of course, almost all of which can jump assault, Deep Strike, or ride in Fast vehicles, but other models are more manageable. Works best if you have a large squad of Fire Dragons, or... nope, that's it.

2) The Wound Sink. Assault, or provoke into being assaulted, with a high model count, low cost unit such as
Termagaunts or Ork Boyz. Do not purchase upgrades of any sort. So long as they keep passing leadership, Mephiston will only kill ~8 per combat round, ~15 per turn, effectively removing him from play at a minimal cost of 150 points for 30 gaunts. This does not address the rest of the Blood Angel army, of course, which might send moderate cost, high attack volume units such as Death Company which can wipe out a large, cheap squad in a turn.

3) The Tyranid Warrior Assassin Squad. 5th edition proved a tremendous boon to Tyranid Warriors, offering an extra wound for the same cost and giving Tyranid players access to 40 point instant death units. In a sense, they deserve a similar analysis to that provided Mephiston, but they have a weakness in the form of instant death from shooting attacks (which Mephiston is generally immune to), and lower mobility (as the dangerous ones don't have wings). A squad of 6 Warriors with 5x 2 boneswords and 1x bonesword and lash whip can effectively kill Mephiston at cost (the only unit apparently able to do so) provided the lash whip makes it into base to base contact with Mephiston on Round 1, reducing his initiative to 1. If it does not, Mephiston will kill ~3 Warriors before they get the chance to strike, and has a strong probability of surviving with 4 wounds remaining (full comparison not listed here as it heavily relies on the results of Transfixed Gaze and psychic rolls, making for a very large entry).

4) Lukas the Trickster. This ******* has 2/3 odds of taking down anything that kills him, to include, sofar as I can tell, Imperator Titans. This unit still doesn't quite match cost for cost, as, factoring in a 1/3 chance for survival, the effective point costs would be 215 for Lukas vs. 167 for Mephiston.

All four of these tactics rely heavily on your opponent being:

1) Naive.

Against a savvy Blood Angel player under the new codex, Mephiston can be held behind friendly assault units/terrain until the front lines are engaged (often by turn 2), after which Mephiston can assault pretty much anywhere he damned well pleases with a 17"-24" effective assault range.

As every 40k player knows, there's a fine tradition in the game of overpowered/underpowered units, the designation of which can change between editions, or even (Chaos) within the same edition. There is a difference between True Balance and Fiat Balance (discussed later) that doesn't always favor True and doesn't always disfavor Fiat.

Morever, there's been a long-standing explanation that armies are balanced against each other, rather than individual units - the whole can be greater, or less, than the sum of its parts. What this philosophy fails to take into account is effective nullification of army list entries. Codex Necrons is (arguably) the most "balanced" codex to date, in that both army and individual units are well in keeping both other armies and each other (or were until 5th edition), but how often are Pariahs fielded? How often do Howling Banshees prove more effective than Striking Scorpions, even against high armor targets? How often will you NOT see someone take a 250 point flying Tyranid Dreadnaught that always strikes first, usually gets rerolls to hit AND wound and, by the way, instant kills? Some units are clearly superior to others within the same army, and that's a problem because it limits variety - one of the game's strongsuits. Some units are so broken that they CRUSH OTHER BROKEN UNITS, and that's a problem because it leads to house rules like bans, which are inconsistent. "I bring three Tyranid army lists with me to games, in case two of my units are banned." Personally, I would bring nine.

Some of the older, more cynical players have suggested now and then that unit balance changes to reflect flagging sales. At the very least, Mephiston counters that rumor, as he's a single, relatively inexpensive model that's remained unchanged since 2nd (1st?) edition. I still don't want to see him every game.



Some general notes on gameplay balance:

- True Balance denotes a state of internal and external harmony, wherein every unit in every army has a role, not always called for, but equally effective when called for in proportion to risk versus reward. True balance ensures that every unit in every army list is playable, and has an opportunity to be fielded if plausable conditions are met. True Balance gets the most out of an existing rule set.
- Fiat Balance denotes a state of internal and / or external disharmony, wherein units do not offer equal return for cost and / or risk is not proportional to reward, but in which a seeming of harmony exists through ignorance. Fiat Balance is characterized by a constant shifting of which units are most / least cost effective through use of frequent rule changes. While exploitive in nature, Fiat Balance can be seen as a driving force for change, as to maintain a seeming of harmony it is necessary to create new rule sets (editions / codexes) to support a never-ending shell game of swap-the-OP-unit. Fiat Balance is often innovative, and keeps gameplay fresh.
- Broken Balance denotes a state of internal and / or external disharmony, wherein units do not offer equal return for cost and / or risk is not proportional to reward and everyone knows it. In the case of a real-time-strategy game, it could be exemplified by a single tank in a single faction that everybody builds as many of as fast as possible and then throws blindly at opponents, as the only effective counter would be to build more of the same tank and throw it the other way faster. In the case of 40k, Broken Balance might be exemplified by a 250 point flying Tyranid Dreadnaught that always strikes first, usually gets rerolls to hit AND wound and, by the way, instant kills. Broken Balance is exploitive of new / casual players, and limits game variety by limiting viable strategic / tactical options.

Many players don't notice the specifics of balance directly unless badly Broken, but experience a persistant repetition or trend that leaves a general impression that something's not quite right. Greater experience, or analysis, leads to easier victories - not through tactical application or consideration, but by building the most of the same tank - but things earned too easily are often less appreciated and can lead to cynicism. For non-casual players, gameplay's simply less interesting than it could be.

40k, for the record, generally relies on Fiat Balance, which often leads to greater "flavor," because the easiest way to achieve True Balance is to make every flavor vanilla. 3rd edition was the closest to date to True Balance. 2nd edition represented Fiat balance, leaning towards broken, and 5th edition is shaping up to be the same. (1st edition was definitely Broken, but it was all so crazy new and innovative at the time, I don't think anyone noticed).

Through experience, I can state that True Balance doesn't have to be vanilla, and that the most enjoyable flavor comes from true balance when it's not. After all, you can still change editions. You just need to plan them out a little more beforehand. For those who think that even flavorful True Balance inevitably leads to stagnation, I offer you chess. King's knight to king's bishop three. Your move.

The Flashlight Game

Here's a game I like to call the Flashlight game (based on a friend's fondness to call Imperial Guard lasguns "flashlights"). How many wounds would 100 Imperial Guardsmen firing lasguns rapid fire do to x creature?

Wraithlord
Feth you Guardsmen.

Swarmlord
200 shots
100 hits
16.7 wounds
5.6 wounds pass 3+ save.
Dead.

Mephiston
200 shots
100 hits
16.7 wounds
2.8 wounds pass 2+ save.
Still quite alive.

Generic T4 multi-wound Space Marine character in 2+ armour
200 shots
100 hits
33.3 wounds
5.6 wounds pass 2+ save.
Super dead, since how many Space Marines have 5 wounds (keeping in mind that Mephiston is a Tyranid)?

Tyranid Warriors
200 shots
100 hits
33.3 wounds
16.7 wounds pass 4+ save.
5 and a half dead Warriors.

Tyranid Gaunts
200 shots
100 hits
50 wounds
50 dead Gaunts.

The results would be the same from 100 Space Marines in Tac squads firing bolters against the Wraithlord, Swarmlord and Mephiston, but quite different against the Generic Space Marine Hero, Tyranid Warriors, and Gaunts. No shooting attack with strength under 5 or AP above 2 is going to be particularly effective against Mephiston. So, as a curiosity, how many high strength AP 3 weapons are there out there as opposed to high strength AP 2? If I shoot a Battle Cannon at a Space Marine leader, and by some miracle it doesn't bounce off of 2+ armor, I expect it to pulp his guts to mush - not give him a nosebleed while he giggles at you and says, "Now if you fire another 24 shots (that all hit) at me, I might be worried!" "You should've taken more Lemun Russ Demolishers in your army list!" "I can only have 3!!"

Mephiston vs. 1,000 point Necron Army

So this section I've added because, as a Necron player since 2nd edition who misses self-destructing scarabs, but loves the 3rd edition codex, I've got something of a vested interest until 2011 (or whenever) my new Necron Codex comes out, when Nightbringer will surely, by the new edition's standards, become a T10 W8 Eternal Warrior. The army list below will include a full Necron army I might typically field. Noteworthy in their absence will be Pariahs, who you'd think would do well against this guy (but wouldn't - run the simulation yourself!) for the simple reason that, like many Necron players, I haven't bought any of the models. Also absent will be Heavy Destroyers, which would do very well against Mephiston (provided no terrain - not at all certain), but which I don't normally field because of relative lack of utility in larger games to Monoliths, and relative danger of Phase Out in smaller to mid-sized games. Honestly, who designs their whole army around killing one (non-titan) model?

360 points - Nightbringer
180 points - Mandatory 10 man Warrior Squad
180 points - Mandatory 10 man Warrior Squad
140 points - 5 man Immortal Squad
140 points - 5 man Immortal Squad


Turn 1, Round 1 - Mephiston walks/runs into range.

Turn 1, Round 2

Warriors Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/6)
2.2 wounds (/6)
.37 wounds taken (.37 total)

Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (1.11 total)

Nightbringer Fires.
1 shot (*2/3)
.66 hits (*5/6)
.56 wounds taken (1.67 total)

Turn 2, Round 1

Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 1 total), runs, fleet assaults Nightbringer.
*See above for results (2 psychic uses, 3 total).

Turn 2, Round 2

Warriors Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/6)
2.2 wounds (/6)
.37 wounds taken (2.04 total)

Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (2.78 total)

Turn 3, Round 1

Mephiston runs, fleet assaults Warrior Group 1.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 5 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
6 attacks (*2/3)
4 hits (reroll 2 misses *2/3)
5.33 hits total (*5/6)
4.44 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
6 Necron Warriors strike.
6 attacks (/2)
3 hits (/6)
.5 wounds (/6)
.08 wounds taken. (2.86 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 4.44 wounds (/3) = 1.48 knocked down.

Turn 3, Round 2

Squads move away. .74 Warriors stand back up. Melee begins.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 7 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
5 attacks (*2/3)
3.33 hits (reroll 1.67 misses *2/3)
4.45 hits total (*5/6)
3.71 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
1 Necron Warrior strikes.
1 attack (/2)
.5 hits (/6)
.08 wounds (/6)
.01 wounds taken. (2.87 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 3.71 wounds (/3) = 1.24 knocked down.
No Warriors remain nearby. Final Warrior stays down.

Turn 4, Round 1

Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 8 total), runs, fleet assaults Warrior Group 2.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 10 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
6 attacks (*2/3)
4 hits (reroll 2 misses *2/3)
5.33 hits total (*5/6)
4.44 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
6 Necron Warriors strike.
6 attacks (/2)
3 hits (/6)
.5 wounds (/6)
.08 wounds taken. (2.95 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 4.44 wounds (/3) = 1.48 knocked down.

Turn 4, Round 2

Squads move away. .74 Warriors stand back up. Melee begins.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 12 total).
Pyschic power Unleash Rage fails!
Mephiston gains the initiative.
5 attacks (*2/3)
3.33 hits (*5/6)
2.78 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
2 Necron Warriors strike.
2 attacks (/2)
1 hit (/6)
.17 wounds (/6)
.03 wounds taken. (2.98 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 2.78 wounds (/3) = .93 knocked down.

Turn 5, Round 1
Mephiston uses no psychic powers.
Mephiston gains the initiative.
5 attacks (*2/3)
3.33 hits (*2/3)
2.78 wounds. Remaining warriors are knocked down.
No Warriors remain nearby. Final Warrior stays down. Mephiston makes Sweeping Advance towards nearest Immortal Squad.

Turn 5, Round 2
Immortal Squads move to max range.
Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (3.72 total)

Turn 6, Round 1
Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 13 total), runs.

Turn 6, Round 2
Immortal Squads move, one away, one towards.
Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (4.46 total)

Turn 7, Round 1
Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 14 total), runs, fleet assaults Immortal Group 1.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 16 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
6 attacks (*2/3)
4 hits (reroll 2 misses *2/3)
5.33 hits total (*5/6)
4.44 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
1 Necron Immortal strikes.
1 attack (/2)
.5 hits (/6)
.08 wounds (/6)
.01 wounds taken (4.47 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 4.44 wounds (/3) = 1.48 knocked down.
No Immortals remain nearby. Final Immortal stays down.

Necrons Phase Out.

Mephiston wins. Wounds remaining: .53/5

Now, I'm not quite certain what I expected to happen when I set this scenario up (something very like this, probably), but this is horse poo. Whoever's about to say it, you're right - with 16 psychic powers used, there are excellent odds of a Perils of the Warp attack coming up. The odds of double 1s are 1/36, and the odds of double 6s are 1/36, making the odds of either 1/18 with each roll. The magic number wasn't quite reached, though, so it didn't occur in this simulation. Between it and the just over 50% odds of a wound being left, there's an excellent case for Mephiston going down towards the end. That being said, I did presume that our Necron player would be skilled/fortunate enough to get two final rounds of shooting in with the Immortals instead of one, thinking it likely that a competent player would get them the Hell out of assault range. There were no Heavy Destroyers, as I typically don't field any in games that size, but neither was there any terrain. Also, had Heavy Destroyers been fielded instead of Immortals, then Phase Out would've occured the start of the Necron turn after the 19th Warrior went down instead of the third Immortal.

[Gotthammer]

A couple of thoughts:

3 Wraithlords - as they aren't a unit to kill multiples in one turn Meph would need to allocate attacks seperately, making killing each harder due to lowering #s of hits against each etc.

2 DC Dreads - he destroys each one automatically? DCDs are especially tricky as they ignore shaken/stunned, so only there is a whole nother realm of variables there - there's as much chance to do nothing with a pen hit as there is to destroy or to damage.

But overall a very interesting analysis of how he does.

[Lerra]

It's difficult to make a fair comparison between Independent Characters and single models who can't protect themselves from shooting.

I've only played against Mephiston once, but he never hit my front lines. I just shot him with a bit of AP2 weaponry and he fell over.

[Judge]

True enough on assigning hits. Factoring that in, one might get another round of hitting which would result in another ~0.8 wounds. Then again, there are 50 points more of Wraithlords than Mephistons in that comparison.

For the Dreads, 2.22 penetrating hits each yield a 3/6 chance of Vehicle Destroyed, discounting other results, and the .56 glancing hits yield a 1/6 chance of Vehicle Destroyed. The odds of a Dred not being destroyed by any of the above would be ~22%, so it's really not as tricky as you'd think.

[Gotthammer]

Erm, you can't destroy a vehicle on a glancing hit and a pen is only a 2/6 chance to destroy (1- shaken, 2-stunned, 3-wep destroyed, 4-immobilised, 5-wrecked, 6-explode).
His attacks aren't AP1, nor are DCDs open topped so he get no bonus to either.

Are you thinking of the 4th ed tables?

[beeny13]

mephiston's force weapon doesn't work against eternal warrior or the nightbringer.

so you have to write out the full battle for logan, abbadon, nightbringer, maybe even ghazgul.
also mephiston can use 3 powers a turn. so he will usually get the transfixing gaze bonus along with s10.

[Judge]

You're right - I was. So 1/3 chance for 2.22 Pens = ~40% chance of no destroyed Dread per round. Final equation buys one of the Dreads an extra attack round, causing a ~3 wounds total for 2 dead Dreads and 2 wounds remaining. I'll correct the main post at some point.

beeny, Nightbringer's rules leave him vulnerable to force weapons in the codex. Do you have a FAQ reference to support your claim? Force weapon was assumed not to work against Logan, as is the case with double Logan's toughness Sanguine Sword. Abaddon is not immune to instant death, and not an Eternal Warrior.

[Tynskel]

Transfixing Glare:
only works against Independent Characters--- most of your targets in this analysis will not benefit from re-roll to hit n' wound.-- Using Unleashed Rage will be important.

Also, factoring in a Sanguinary Priest is important- furious charge.

Who runs 11 Khorne Beserkers? Every time I have seen them, they are in a rhino or (rarely) a Land Raider. Max is 10. They'll also have a champion.

Against Wraithlords-- they are independent targets, and a unit can only attack one unit at a time.
Same with Dreadnoughts-- not to mention, you can only charge one at a time.

Overall, the math is completely flawed-- cannot believe one bit of this.


Mephiston vs Dreadnought
Cast: all three powers-- 1/4 chance that at least one of the powers will not cast. No Psychic Hood involved.
Assumption: all powers pass. Here's the thing- if Wings doesn't pass, you might not make it. If Sanguine Sword doesn't cast, you better have a sanguinary priest nearby- if Unleash rage doesn't pass, you don't get re-roll to hit.

6*[(2/3+2/3*1/3)] to hit*2/3 (to pen) *1/3 (to wreck) = 99% chance for destroyed Dread.
Sanguine Sword does not pass, but there is a Priest
6*[(2/3+2/3*1/3)] *1/6 (to pen) *1/3 (to wreck) = 29.6% chance to destroy
Unleashed Rage does not pass
6*2/3*2/3*1/3= 88.9% destroy.

Unless you can get the powers off, you shouldn't be throwing Mephiston at the Dread. If the thing is an Ironclad, you'll have problems! (basically anything armor 13)

In all cases you show prove that Mephiston should NEVER fight anything by himself. He should always have a backup.
I think the great backup is: Stormraven and a Furioso with Blood Talons, and Hv Flamer (maybe even a magna grapple). The Stormraven gets mephiston there, and a Furioso is a great bodyguard.


And where are you getting that a Penetration = 50% chance to destroy dread? 1/3 chance destroy- Mephiston doesn't have AP1 or plus 1 to damage table.

[isotope99]

I hate to be picky (who am I kidding, that's what these forums are for) after you've put so much work in but a couple of points:

Abaddon IS immune to instant death - Mark of Chaos ascendant,(p46 CSM codex) and is therefore one of the better anti-Meswisston choices along with Lysander, greater daemons and pretty much anyone with eternal warrior (or equivalent) and a high strength power weapon.

Also, and I hate to sound like a math professor here, but average wounds is not a great method for measuring likely kills when you have an instant death weapon because the range of results is not continuous. A better analysis would be the flat percentage chance to kill someone, although I have to admit that is a wickedly complex analysis with all the psychic power variables.

Excluding squad sergeant power fists is also not really fair as they're one of the most likely things to bring him down in CC for the average army.

Overall though I agree, the cheeselord is badass in one-on-one combat against almost anyone. If your opponent doesn't know he's coming then he's going to be hard to kill and even tougher of he's in range of a sanguinary priest (which he should be). Cover and feel no pain will allow him to take four times as many lascannon/melta gun hits.

Only time, and an army of genetically engineered atomic internet super nerds playtesting round the clock, will tell.

[DarkLink]

I do find it odd that you insist that squad power fist/claws shouldn't be included. A SM sergeant will put, what, 5/6th of a wound on Mephiston when mephiston charges them. A Nob will do slightly more damages.

It will take Mephiston maybe 3 turns to kill his way through an ork mob of 30 boyz. During those three turns, an or nob will do roughly 3 wounds on Mephiston. And a 30 boy squad with a pklaw costs just over 200pts. Not too bad. I'd say that a power klaws cost is well worth putting 3 wounds on Mephiston.

BTW, how'd a unit of GK Terminators with and embedded GK Grand Master do. Enough Terminators and mephiston won't be able to cut through them (especially if they take THSSs, even if they have the really old 4+ against a single opponent in cc shields). The GKGM will then only have to put a single wound, then force weapon Mephiston.

Note that the GKGM wouldn't be an IC until after the entire squad dies first, due to retinue rules, and that Grey Knight Force Weapons ignore Eternal Warrior.

[Vepr]

Doesn't transfixing gaze work only on IC's? Unless I am mistaken the Swarmlord is not an IC also you did not figure in the swarmlords powers like paroxysm or leach.

[XHound87]

Something that I would also like to bring up, in particular about the swarmlord (or anyone with a psychic hood too, it would seem) and that you failed to notice in the rules it seems: the use of your force weapon constitutes a psychic test, as per the Force Weapons entry on page 50 of the BRB. Specifically with the wording of Shadow in the Warp (pg. 33 of the Tyranid codex) that you would have to roll 3d6 for all of your psychic tests to actually use the force weapon's ability, something that would raise the chance of failure for the ability far greater than what you have indicated. I do not have the C:SM with me to check the language of psychic hoods, but I assume that it could negate the force weapon as it is clearly a psychic check/ability.

[DarkLink]

Something that I would also like to bring up, in particular about the swarmlord (or anyone with a psychic hood too, it would seem) and that you failed to notice in the rules it seems: the use of your force weapon constitutes a psychic test, as per the Force Weapons entry on page 50 of the BRB. Specifically with the wording of Shadow in the Warp (pg. 33 of the Tyranid codex) that you would have to roll 3d6 for all of your psychic tests to actually use the force weapon's ability, something that would raise the chance of failure for the ability far greater than what you have indicated. I do not have the C:SM with me to check the language of psychic hoods, but I assume that it could negate the force weapon as it is clearly a psychic check/ability.

Psychic hoods do indeed stop psychic powers. He also pointed out in his list of assumptions that he would neglect standard psychic tests, as there is only an 8.3% chance of failure, and a 5.6% chance of suffering Perils.

However, after actually seeing those numbers, I think he should go back and recalculate to include the psychic test. Simply by using his powers, Mephiston is at risk of .056 wounds per power per turn, and has a small but not negligable chance of not benefiting from a power.

Taking into account the potential for failing a test does make it much more complicated, but adding in the risk of suffering Perils is actually very easy, so he should do at least that.

[DarkLink]

On a side note, I crunched the numbers for Mephiston vs a Grey Knight Grand Master with a retinue of 4 Terminators.

If Mephiston charges:
Mephiston will have a roughly 75% chance of being force weaponed by the GKGM. If the GKGM fails to do this, then Mephiston will kill them all on the third round of combat, and be left with about 2.2 wounds left.

If the Grey Knights charge:
Everything actually works out almost exactly the same. However if Mephiston manages to win, he will have been reduced to just .72 wounds.


I will also point out that in some cases, the assumption that Mephiston will get the charge may be a poor one. He can easily get the assault against, say, the Nightbringer, but a smart 'nidz player could easily "hide" the Swarmlord in the midst of a horde of guants, preventing Mephiston from assaulting. Space Marines could hide inside Land Raiders as well, in which case it would be a game of cat and mouse between Mephiston and the Land Raider.

[Tynskel]

Psychic hoods do indeed stop psychic powers. He also pointed out in his list of assumptions that he would neglect standard psychic tests, as there is only an 8.3% chance of failure, and a 5.6% chance of suffering Perils.

However, after actually seeing those numbers, I think he should go back and recalculate to include the psychic test. Simply by using his powers, Mephiston is at risk of .056 wounds per power per turn, and has a small but not negligable chance of not benefiting from a power.

Taking into account the potential for failing a test does make it much more complicated, but adding in the risk of suffering Perils is actually very easy, so he should do at least that.

Here's another thing: 8% failure doesn't sound bad-- but that's one power-- now try factoring in that he's casting multiple powers a turn--- If you need all 3 powers to cast in one turn: that's a 1/4 chance of failure--

Assumption-- cast 3 powers a turn, every turn (no psychic hoods, ect):
in a 6 turn game, that's ~12 turns of casting 3 powers-- that's ~3 times that Mephiston will not get all powers off (~ 1-2 times perils of the warp).

[XHound87]

Psychic hoods do indeed stop psychic powers. He also pointed out in his list of assumptions that he would neglect standard psychic tests, as there is only an 8.3% chance of failure, and a 5.6% chance of suffering Perils.

However, after actually seeing those numbers, I think he should go back and recalculate to include the psychic test. Simply by using his powers, Mephiston is at risk of .056 wounds per power per turn, and has a small but not negligable chance of not benefiting from a power.

Taking into account the potential for failing a test does make it much more complicated, but adding in the risk of suffering Perils is actually very easy, so he should do at least that.

It does indeed make it more complicated. But my point was that he's doing things kinda wonky for the Swarmlord. Namely that he's including Tranfixing gaze (which as Vepr pointed out, doesn't work), as well as Sanguine Sword, something that he mentioned not using against the Trygon Prime because of SITW. Using either the SS or the force weapon means that he'll fail either about 50% of the time (again, which he mentioned against the TP). Also noted is that under the effects of SITW, Meph will suffer Perils 1/6 for each psychic test. Those odds seem quite a bit more dangerous when you do that twice each turn. Assuming that the Swarmlord lives through all that, which is possible more than not, he can very much put Meph's lights out. Just my two cents.

[Judge]

Darklink, I'd be interested in seeing the numbers (and a list of assumptions) for the Grey Knight battle. Do Grey Knights nullify psychic powers completely (no roll)? Assuming they do, does the GKGC count as an Independent Character? Assuming he's a standard T4 Marine leader with 3 wounds, Mephiston would kill him without any psychic powers or Transfixing Gaze in the first or second round by rights of straight strength and a power weapon by assigning his hits in base to base. If they don't completely nullify psychic powers, he's got two shots at SS if he jump charges, and three if he doesn't. He'd thereafter instant kill through raw strength unless GKGCs are immune somehow. Sorry - don't mean to jump on you. You're just the only one so far who's posted any realistic numbers.

Tynskel, not all three psychic powers are called for every turn. I added a sample battle versus Necrons that illustrates the point.

There's an awful lot of nitpicking without an awful lot of simulation to back it up. This, from past experience, I've found to be indicative of incomplete understanding of the subject matter. Anyone who sites one or two complaints and continues to dismiss the analysis out of hand, this applies to you. So far, only one person has "crunched his own numbers."

- Psychic tests were factored in against the Swarmlord, as I thought the numbers made evident - 50% chance of failure with a 1/6 chance of Perils in the Warp. I no longer have the codexes at hand, but factoring out Transfixing Gaze and factoring in Unleash Rage would have a significant impact, yes. Someone feel free to rerun the numbers?
- Against Abaddon, I used the more recent of two fourth edition Chaos codexes. His Chaos Undivided Mark gave him a 4+ invlunerable save, and adjustments to statline. Nowhere that I saw was he listed as immune to any sort of instant kill (please correct me if I missed something). Are you using the older (better) 4th edition codex?
- I did not factor in the odds of Peril in the Warp for an entire 6 turn game as that exceeds the purposes of basic illustration in this matter: to whit, Mephiston will have paid for himself (likely several times over) in practically every game he's fielded in before Peril in the Warp becomes an issue.
- Whoever thought they killed Mephiston with a few AP2 shots, your post makes it seem highly probable that you fought an older edition Mephiston, whose stats were absolutely nothing like 5th edition Mephiston's.
- Power weapons would have little meaning in Str 4 hands. If you think adding a powerfist to a 10 man squad will help, by all means do so and run the numbers. Add two. Just make sure that however you run things, Mephiston can't single them out, or they'll always be the first to go.

Generally speaking, I selected melee specialists to oppose Mephiston for purposes of illustration, many of whom would not be his first targets (although, given the case of Nightbringer, why not, eh?). When looking at his competition, though, how many 12" move fleet choices do you see? How many are small enough to hide behind cracks in terrain or normal troops from their own armies? (I've tried hiding Swarmlord behind a Trygon, but gaunts?) How many have a high enough toughness to shrug off Str 4 fire (quite a few) and a 2+ save (not many at all)? By base statline, 5th edition Mephitson is a flying Tyranid Monstrous Creature in 2+ armor with a better initiative who swaps 2d6 pen for Str 10. Why do Carnifexs have low initiative? Why does a Swarmlord have a 3+ armor save, and only get a 4+ invulnerable in melee? Why doesn't it fly? Why do units have vulnerabilities, when they could all turn potentially fatal flaws into boons ala Dragonball Z? What would this guy do to an Imperial Guard or *shudder* Necron army, all by himself? Why am I the only one who's noticed how borked this guy is? At the very least, did the difference between editions sink in? They are not ostensibly compatable.

Here's a game I like to call the Flashlight game (based on a friend's fondness to call Imperial Guard lasguns "flashlights"). How many wounds would 100 Imperial Guardsmen firing lasguns rapid fire do to x creature?

Wraithlord
Feth you Guardsmen.

Swarmlord
200 shots
100 hits
16.7 wounds
5.6 wounds pass 3+ save.
Dead.

Mephiston
200 shots
100 hits
16.7 wounds
2.8 wounds pass 2+ save.
Still quite alive.

Generic T4 multi-wound Space Marine character in 2+ armour
200 shots
100 hits
33.3 wounds
5.6 wounds pass 2+ save.
Super dead, since how many Space Marines have 5 wounds (keeping in mind that Mephiston is a Tyranid)?

Tyranid Warriors
200 shots
100 hits
33.3 wounds
16.7 wounds pass 4+ save.
5 and a half dead Warriors.

Tyranid Gaunts
200 shots
100 hits
50 wounds
50 dead Gaunts.

Simply put, my analysis is an intelligent, thoughtful approach to illustrating a concept that should be apparent at little more than a glance, and the best (only) way to beat it is at its own game. Please crunch your own numbers, and post your own results. So far, a few individual battles have been argued with specifics, but the overall conclusions remain unassailed.

[UltramarineFan]

Wow that's boring, btw Abadonn is immune to Instant Death. Mark of Chaos makes him immune as well as giving the bonuses of all the marks.

[Judge]

Wow that's boring, btw Abadonn is immune to Instant Death. Mark of Chaos makes him immune as well as giving the bonuses of all the marks.

Never underestimate a GED.

[Fellend]

I'm interested in 5 LC terminators with Accept any challenge vs him =)

[Ferrett]

Dear Judge. I run a Anti-BA(Tank version) ork list. Practically against me (And yes we do play 5th ed, my local BA player is quite loving Blood Talons, which I am not), Mephiston seems to cringe at the oddest of attacks.
All of the following are AP 2 attacks. All of which in a combined method were used to kill him regularly. It must be noted that my technique involves attacking him with fire from the 2 nearest most lethal units per turn.

Shokk attack gun - killing ratio across 3 games - 2 wounds (11 and 10 respectively)
Zzapp guns - 3 wounds from 3 games
Snazzguns - 2 wounds
Perils (That 'unlikely roll') - 3 wounds.

Remaining wounds made to him that weren't AP2.
Rokkit to face - one wound
Unending shoota fire - one wound.
Shoota boy CC attacks - one wound

friend has reminded me it was 5 perils from 3 games. Unlucky him heh.

Ideally I should remember the last 2 wounds to make a point, unfortunately I do not.
The point to counter though is that Meph can be killed reliably - IF you treat him just like any tank (vehicle not high wound model). I understand that current edition that means melta... and I pity the races that rely on this tactic. But a nice lot of hard hitting fire will kill him.

Now.... can anyone help me with how to kill Honour guard, I'd be chuffed.

[Gooball]

You should try the sanguinor . . we had a hero bash with him one on one against everyone and the only person capable of taking him down was abbadon (even though he died at the same time!) And yarrick did pose a bit of a problem.. he just wouldn't die :3

[Judge]

Ferrett: As you're an Ork player, I like you already.

I haven't gone too thoroughly through the Ork codex in awhile, but as I recall, their higher strength weapons were frequently balanced with poor accuracy. The helicopters get rerolls, but how many others? With BS 2, absent rerolls, only 1/3 shots will hit, and 1s never wound, meaning it'll take ~18 shots from AP2 or AP1 weapons to kill this guy. Over the course of a game, sure, I could see that as feasible, but within the first round or two? Moreover, before he gets into your squads with his ridonculous assault range? What are you going to shoot the rest of his tanks with? You know they're all fast because of the color!

Seeing him as a vehicle is fair in a sense, though. If you hit a AP 12 front armor Dreadnaught with a Str 9 weapon, you have a 1/2 chance to Penetrate, 1/3 chance to destroy, with a whole lot of likely lesser effects scattered in the damage table to keep it preoccupied in the meantime. With Mephiston, there are no lesser effects - until that last wound's gone, he's at full power. More to the point, though, while Furiosa Dreads can now also fly (with costly upgrades), they're not so tiny that you can hide them behind Assault Squads / many types of terrain, and they only dish out half as many Str 10 wounds per combat round.

I'm guessing your friend sticks him out in the open, bold as brass and daring you to shoot him. You should definitely forget to suggest that he not do that anymore.

[Xas]

a funny way to kill mephy:

take deathleaper to reduce his leadership to 9-7 and drop the doom of malanthai next to him.


depending on your roll with the deathleaper's lds reduction all he has to do is totall 14 (as low as 12 can be enough) with 3d6 and he is toast. if the oponent does not run away from the doom youa ctually get a 2nd chance in his shooting phase as well!



on the OP itself I think he showed that mephiston is worth his points. If I pay that many points for a combat monster that has no other abilities bot to kill he pretty much HAS to be a monster.

mephiston is designed to kill expensive stuff and that includes other combat monster chars. he pretty much is in the same boath as abbadon and if you include his immunity to ID the battle should be pretty fair (my money is on abby since all he needs is to survive and then score 5 hits as rerolling wounds with s8 and no invul on mephis part is quite easy).

there are some squads that will endanger him (examples: 30 hormagaunts with toxin sacs, 20 genestealers) but the simple reason why the model itself is not OP is that he still has weaknesses and that is beeing a single non IC modell and not haveing an invul save. there are ways to hit him with shooting then he is going down easily.

often enough my tanka-fexes (t7 5wound 2+ save, last dex) have been one-shot by a sternguard droppod with 5+ combi-plasma guns, outflanking choosen, teleporting chaos-terminators and what not. prolly the easiest solution to mephiston are 10 firedragons in a serpent. you ahve one of the most survivable transports that is a fast skimmer and 10 bs4 s8 ap1 shots to nail him.

finally a good general never "plays fair". if you pit same points against each other you are doing it wrong. and if you take 1000 points of shooting or melee even mephi will go down without causeing his points in damage.

[Judge]

You don't post any evidence to back your claims, Xas. Funny you should mention the 1,000 points bit, though....

Mephiston vs. 1,000 point Necron Army

So this section I've added because, as a Necron player since 2nd edition who misses self-destructing scarabs, but loves the 3rd edition codex, I've got something of a vested interest until 2011 (or whenever) my new Necron Codex comes out, when Nightbringer will surely, by the new edition's standards, become a T10 W8 Eternal Warrior. The army list below will include a full Necron army I might typically field. Noteworthy in their absence will be Pariahs, who you'd think would do well against this guy (but wouldn't - run the simulation yourself!) for the simple reason that, like many Necron players, I haven't bought any of the models. Also absent will be Heavy Destroyers, which would do very well against Mephiston (provided no terrain - not at all certain), but which I don't normally field because of relative lack of utility in larger games to Monoliths, and relative danger of Phase Out in smaller to mid-sized games. Honestly, who designs their whole army around killing one (non-titan) model?

360 points - Nightbringer
180 points - Mandatory 10 man Warrior Squad
180 points - Mandatory 10 man Warrior Squad
140 points - 5 man Immortal Squad
140 points - 5 man Immortal Squad


Turn 1, Round 1 - Mephiston walks/runs into range.

Turn 1, Round 2

Warriors Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/6)
2.2 wounds (/6)
.37 wounds taken (.37 total)

Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (1.11 total)

Nightbringer Fires.
1 shot (*2/3)
.66 hits (*5/6)
.56 wounds taken (1.67 total)

Turn 2, Round 1

Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 1 total), runs, fleet assaults Nightbringer.
*See above for results (2 psychic uses, 3 total).

Turn 2, Round 2

Warriors Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/6)
2.2 wounds (/6)
.37 wounds taken (2.04 total)

Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (2.78 total)

Turn 3, Round 1

Mephiston runs, fleet assaults Warrior Group 1.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 5 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
6 attacks (*2/3)
4 hits (reroll 2 misses *2/3)
5.33 hits total (*5/6)
4.44 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
6 Necron Warriors strike.
6 attacks (/2)
3 hits (/6)
.5 wounds (/6)
.08 wounds taken. (2.86 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 4.44 wounds (/3) = 1.48 knocked down.

Turn 3, Round 2

Squads move away. .74 Warriors stand back up. Melee begins.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 7 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
5 attacks (*2/3)
3.33 hits (reroll 1.67 misses *2/3)
4.45 hits total (*5/6)
3.71 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
1 Necron Warrior strikes.
1 attack (/2)
.5 hits (/6)
.08 wounds (/6)
.01 wounds taken. (2.87 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 3.71 wounds (/3) = 1.24 knocked down.
No Warriors remain nearby. Final Warrior stays down.

Turn 4, Round 1

Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 8 total), runs, fleet assaults Warrior Group 2.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 10 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
6 attacks (*2/3)
4 hits (reroll 2 misses *2/3)
5.33 hits total (*5/6)
4.44 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
6 Necron Warriors strike.
6 attacks (/2)
3 hits (/6)
.5 wounds (/6)
.08 wounds taken. (2.95 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 4.44 wounds (/3) = 1.48 knocked down.

Turn 4, Round 2

Squads move away. .74 Warriors stand back up. Melee begins.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 12 total).
Pyschic power Unleash Rage fails!
Mephiston gains the initiative.
5 attacks (*2/3)
3.33 hits (*5/6)
2.78 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
2 Necron Warriors strike.
2 attacks (/2)
1 hit (/6)
.17 wounds (/6)
.03 wounds taken. (2.98 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 2.78 wounds (/3) = .93 knocked down.

Turn 5, Round 1
Mephiston uses no psychic powers.
Mephiston gains the initiative.
5 attacks (*2/3)
3.33 hits (*2/3)
2.78 wounds. Remaining warriors are knocked down.
No Warriors remain nearby. Final Warrior stays down. Mephiston makes Sweeping Advance towards nearest Immortal Squad.

Turn 5, Round 2
Immortal Squads move to max range.
Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (3.72 total)

Turn 6, Round 1
Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 13 total), runs.

Turn 6, Round 2
Immortal Squads move, one away, one towards.
Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (4.46 total)

Turn 7, Round 1
Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 14 total), runs, fleet assaults Immortal Group 1.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 16 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
6 attacks (*2/3)
4 hits (reroll 2 misses *2/3)
5.33 hits total (*5/6)
4.44 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
1 Necron Immortal strikes.
1 attack (/2)
.5 hits (/6)
.08 wounds (/6)
.01 wounds taken (4.47 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 4.44 wounds (/3) = 1.48 knocked down.
No Immortals remain nearby. Final Immortal stays down.

Necrons Phase Out.

Mephiston wins. Wounds remaining: .53/5

Now, I'm not quite certain what I expected to happen when I set this scenario up (something very like this, probably), but this is horse poo. Whoever's about to say it, you're right - with 16 psychic powers used, there are excellent odds of a Perils of the Warp attack coming up. The odds of double 1s are 1/36, and the odds of double 6s are 1/36, making the odds of either 1/18 with each roll. The odds aren't quite 50%, though, so it didn't occur in this simulation. Between it and the just over 50% odds of a wound being left, there's an excellent case for Mephiston going down towards the end. That being said, I did presume that our Necron player would be skilled/fortunate enough to get two final rounds of shooting in with the Immortals instead of one, thinking it likely that a competent player would get them the Hell out of assault range. There were no Heavy Destroyers, as I typically don't field any in games that size, but neither was there any terrain. Also, had Heavy Destroyers been fielded instead of Immortals, then Phase Out would've occured the start of the Necron turn after the 19th Warrior went down instead of the third Immortal.

[DarkLink]

Darklink, I'd be interested in seeing the numbers (and a list of assumptions) for the Grey Knight battle. Do Grey Knights nullify psychic powers completely (no roll)? Assuming they do, does the GKGC count as an Independent Character? Assuming he's a standard T4 Marine leader with 3 wounds, Mephiston would kill him without any psychic powers or Transfixing Gaze in the first or second round by rights of straight strength and a power weapon by assigning his hits in base to base. If they don't completely nullify psychic powers, he's got two shots at SS if he jump charges, and three if he doesn't. He'd thereafter instant kill through raw strength unless GKGCs are immune somehow. Sorry - don't mean to jump on you. You're just the only one so far who's posted any realistic numbers.


The GKGM uses the old retinue rules as I pointed out, so he's protected from Transfixing gaze and partially from wound allocation as well.

Additionally, I assumed the GKGM had a psychic hood, meaning he blocks 42% of mephiston's powers. Plus, all Grey Knights have built in psychic hoods against powers targeting them, so even without the hood the GKGM would have some protection from being force weaponed.

Also, the GKGM's force weapon uses the old rules, ignoring eternal warrior.


And I did the calculations on my graphing calculator for the most part, and really only wrote down the results:o.

Anyways, I agree with xas. You're making a lot of little assumptions, all of which are completely in Mephiston's favor. Those add up. In real game, though, things often don't go as planned, which can make Mephiston a whole lot less scary.

[Zijan]

Judge --

You really should re-run the numbers for Abaddon. I did (posted below) for 4th and 3rd ed Abaddon, but I'm not a statistician, so I may have made errors. Assumptions are listed, as well as extrapolated from your first post. Both versions of Abaddon are Immune to Instant Death, one from Mark of Chaos Ascendant, the other from Daemonic Rune.

Mephiston vs. Abaddon the Despoiler (4th ed)

Assumptions:
Mephiston gets Transvixing Gaze/Unleash Rage, Sanguine Sword
Abaddon never rolls a 1 for his Daemon weapon

Round 1

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.5 wounds.
Abaddon saves. 1.25 wounds. 2.75 wounds left

Abaddon strikes. 7.5 attacks. 3.75 hits.
Abaddon wounds. 3.125 wounds. With re-roll, 3.646 wounds.
Mephiston saves. 1.823 wounds. 3.177 wounds left

Round 2

Mephiston strikes. 3 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.5 wounds.
Abaddon saves. 1.25 wounds. (1.5 wounds left)

Abaddon strikes. 7.5 attacks. 3.75 hits.
Abaddon wounds. 3.125 wounds. With re-roll, 3.646 wounds.
Mephiston saves. 1.823 wounds. 1.354 wounds left.

Round 3

Mephiston strikes. 3 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.5 wounds.
Abaddon saves. 1.25 wounds. (0.25 wounds left)

Abaddon strikes. 7.5 attacks. 3.75 hits.
Abaddon wounds. 3.125 wounds. With re-roll, 3.646 wounds.
Mephiston saves. 1.823 wounds.

Abaddon wins (0.25 wounds left)

Cost Percentage: 91%

Mephiston vs. Abaddon the Despoiler (3rd ed)

Assumptions:
Mephiston gets Transvixing Gaze/Unleash Rage, Sanguine Sword

Round 1

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.56 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.96 wounds.
Abaddon saves. 1.48 wounds. 1.52 wounds left

Abaddon strikes. 5 attacks. 2.5 hits.
Abaddon wounds. 0.764 wounds (lightning claw)
Mephiston saves. 0.382 wounds. 4.618 wounds left

Drach’nyen strikes. 0.5 hits
Mephiston saves. 0.25 chance of being killed outright (not Instant Death)

Round 2

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.56 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.96 wounds.
Abaddon saves. 1.48 wounds. 0.04 wounds left

Abaddon strikes. 5 attacks. 2.5 hits.
Abaddon wounds. 0.764 wounds (lightning claw)
Mephiston saves. 0.382 wounds. 4.236 wounds left

Drach’nyen strikes. 0.5 hits
Mephiston saves. 0.25 chance of being killed outright (not Instant Death)

Round 3

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.56 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.96 wounds.
Abaddon saves. 1.48 wounds. Dead

Mephiston wins (50% of the time due to Drach'nyen)

Cost Percentage: 98%

[Judge]

Zijan, thanks for running those. It looks like you did just fine. No fancy statistics here - standard deviations can play a big role in extensive analysis, but all we're doing here is establishing a basic trend. I'm betting somewhere at GW they have some basic S v T tables to help establish reasonable statlines. That, or they're still feeding off of 3rd edition's baseline (which is a pity, since the math's not that hard to replicate). Please note that I ended every simulation when a model had <.5 wounds remaining, as this indicates a greater than 50% probability of death. As such, Mephiston would win both of your listed scenarios quite handily, as the first left Abaddon with only .25 wounds. Thanks for running the numbers - I don't currently have the codexes at hand.

Dark, I'm making a lot of assumptions, because small assumptions lead to large conveniences. Many of the assumptions made do not favor Mephiston at all. For example, no one gets the charge in scenarios I ran, even though Meph has a considerably greater assault range. I didn't use Unleash Rage unless otherwise listed. In the case of the Trygon and Logan Grimnar, I didn't even use Sanguine Sword (not that it matters against Logan). 1/12 chance of psychic failure is a non-issue with Sanguine Sword if Unleash Rage is not used, as Meph can always try it again if it fails the first time - 1/12 * 1/12 = 1/144 odds of failure twice in a row. If you feel 1/12 odds of failure for instant death from his rune weapon have a significant impact, feel free to illustrate your point, as claiming I'm doing something wrong is sheer and utter nonsense absent direct evidence, which anyone with a rulebook and codexes is free to provide just as I've done (or in more detail, as you prefer).

[Malkov]

I want to say pit him against Skulltaker with some Bloodletters/crushers, but Fisto could just run away :mad:

[DarkLink]

If you feel 1/12 odds of failure for instant death from his rune weapon have a significant impact, feel free to illustrate your point, as claiming I'm doing something wrong is sheer and utter nonsense absent direct evidence, which anyone with a rulebook and codexes is free to provide just as I've done (or in more detail, as you prefer).

You're being rather confrontational about this. In fact, you've kinda jumped on anyone who's said something that could be construed to be critical of your analysis. Chill out.

And for the record, I didn't say you were wrong. I said that a few of the assumptions you made maybe shouldn't have been. The assumptions will affect the outcome of the result, and are most definitely not "sheer and utter nonsense". The question is, is the increased accuracy worth the extra effort. If you don't feel so, that's fine. No need to be confrontational if I think some of them might have been worth including.


Absent Psychic Interference, Psychic Tests Pass
(1/12 chances to fail do add up, but no single battle listed here will last long enough for that to be likely).


It's easy to add the odds of him suffering a wound due to Perils, at the least. Just add 0.056 to the number of wounds Mephiston suffers for each power he uses each turn. And the odds of failing a test are 8.3%. But, yeah, some battles it won't have a significant effect unless there is some psychic nullification present. However, in very close battles it may be enough to give Mephiston's opponent the edge.



No Charge
(Mephiston is more likely to be the charger due to size, fleet and jump abilities).


Ah, I misread this. Though you said Mephiston would always get the charge.



No Shooting
(Given a 17"-24" potential assault range and tiny model size [facilitating easy hiding], Mephiston should be able to avoid getting shot by hiding behind terrain / allied squads to directly block LoS. A more likely scenario that Mephiston will get to shoot his pistol before assaulting will also be discounted, but should be remembered, as per the No Charge and Psychic Tests Pass assumptions).


Here's the biggest problem, and the toughest. There's no way to calculate the odds of Mephiston taking wounds from shooting before the combat starts. However, it does completely ignore what is by far the easiest way to kill Mephiston.

I don't expect to be able to calculate the odds of Mephiston getting shot, but it does mean that this analysis will make him seem scarier than he is.



No Transfixing Gaze Unless It Significantly Effects The Outcome
(Transfixing Gaze will be used the first match to show why. It can strongly impact fighting, but is simply unecessary in most of the cases listed).


BTW, that's affect, not effect :p



Mephiston Will Not Use Unleash Rage
(The Sanguine Sword psychic ability may be used at the start of either player's assault phase to effect close combat attacks made that round, thus additional psychic uses per round will be reserved. Practically speaking, Unleash Rage would become available in the second turn for the third round of combat, but will not be used here unless otherwise noted for reasons soon to be apparent).

I can't blame you for sacrificing accuracy in favor of making assumptions. And I was wrong about them all being in Mephiston's favor. But it would have been sufficient to actually refute me, instead of dismissing my comments as "sheer and utter nonsense absent direct evidence". You might want to read up on this sticky; Mind your manners (global warning) (http://www.lounge.belloflostsouls.net/showthread.php?t=5290)

[whitestar333]

a funny way to kill mephy:

take deathleaper to reduce his leadership to 9-7 and drop the doom of malanthai next to him.


depending on your roll with the deathleaper's lds reduction all he has to do is totall 14 (as low as 12 can be enough) with 3d6 and he is toast. if the oponent does not run away from the doom youa ctually get a 2nd chance in his shooting phase as well!


This isn't even a reliable solution because Deathleaper only chooses characters - Mephiston is not a character but just a regular unit. Sure, the DoM has a chance, but less than a 50% chance of even causing 1 wound. While the potential is there, I can tell you from playing Warmachine, rolling a 3d6 is plenty random. Get out your dice and roll it right now. Does it do anything to Mephiston with his Ld 10?

[Ferrett]

Ferrett: As you're an Ork player, I like you already.

I haven't gone too thoroughly through the Ork codex in awhile, but as I recall, their higher strength weapons were frequently balanced with poor accuracy. The helicopters get rerolls, but how many others? With BS 2, absent rerolls, only 1/3 shots will hit, and 1s never wound, meaning it'll take ~18 shots from AP2 or AP1 weapons to kill this guy. Over the course of a game, sure, I could see that as feasible, but within the first round or two? Moreover, before he gets into your squads with his ridonculous assault range? What are you going to shoot the rest of his tanks with? You know they're all fast because of the color!

Seeing him as a vehicle is fair in a sense, though. If you hit a AP 12 front armor Dreadnaught with a Str 9 weapon, you have a 1/2 chance to Penetrate, 1/3 chance to destroy, with a whole lot of likely lesser effects scattered in the damage table to keep it preoccupied in the meantime. With Mephiston, there are no lesser effects - until that last wound's gone, he's at full power. More to the point, though, while Furiosa Dreads can now also fly (with costly upgrades), they're not so tiny that you can hide them behind Assault Squads / many types of terrain, and they only dish out half as many Str 10 wounds per combat round.

I'm guessing your friend sticks him out in the open, bold as brass and daring you to shoot him. You should definitely forget to suggest that he not do that anymore.

Judge: No my friend doesn't boldly dare me to shoot him. He hides Mephiston behind a building, behind a landraider first turn then jumps him through cover. I counter this by making sure at least one squad can see into all cover.

Otherwise you're pretty much correct and I sweat like all heck that I shoot more than he moves.

[synack]

Just throw the Tyrant with Lash and Bonesword against him, should do the trick.

[addamsfamily36]

Just throw the Tyrant with Lash and Bonesword against him, should do the trick.

You would think, but trust me i played against tyranids the other day and my mephiston took on a hive tyrant, a prime, and a carnifex one after the other no problems. :D

[Judge]

Something that should be noted early on is that variances will occur. Perhaps I should've explained this more in the main post, but a >50% probability of Mephiston annihilating something is not at all a 100% probability. In single games, Meph might die to something as simple as Nigel's Initiative shooting attack, as a 6/6 has to come up sometime. The problem is that 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5/6 come up more often. While everyone might have exceptional games now and then (I've seen someone roll 5 6s out of 5, and don't ask for the odds on that), the important point is that they are exceptional. Over the course of several games, perhaps dozens, you'll see the numbers projections bear fruit.

Ferrett, I'd say that your army is very well configured against your friend's army, then, or you need to school him less gently in tactics. Either way, go you.

addams, I'd like to say that you're experiencing the upper end of Mephiston's cost performance, but I'm afraid it can still get worse. Please remember the Shadow in the Warp rule (which doesn't stop Meph at all, but makes things trickier against pile-ons), and watch out for lash whips, Doom (also OP to the point it should be in every game), and Warriors with Boneswords (I'm sure you know all that already, but stated for the other posters).

Dark, your objections were entirely unsupported by evidence, and remain so. Colloquially, this might be referred to as the "hunh uh" argument. An analogue might be entering a conversation about rocket propulsion and profoundly stating that acceleration of a free falling object on earth at sea level is 9.8m/sec^2; therefore, rockets can't fly. Absent direct evidence to the contrary, perhaps you'd have an arguable case, but an opinionated statement out of context has no meaning.

Shooting was removed from the scenarios for obvious (and stated) reasons. Were it reintroduced, you'd find in a majority of cases that it influenced events in Mephiston's favor, as per the Flashlight illustration amended to the main post, or the more elaborate Necron Army illustration. If you disagree, illustrate your complaints with complete, well-thought-out scenarios instead of sniping with meaningless diatribe.

Either way, quit taking things so personally (as, ironically, you've accused me of doing). No one here cares how smart (or dumb) you are.

[Xas]

first, zijan all your wounds caused by abbadon should be doubled. simply because mephiston has NO INVULNERABILITY SAVE. he neither has terminator armor nor a crozius nor an iron halo nor a stormshield nor any spezial rules to grant him a 4++ which you calculated.


You don't post any evidence to back your claims, Xas. Funny you should mention the 1,000 points bit, though....


back up what claims?

that he is good at killing other chars? many people have already posted logs of that (you included)
that there are modells that can kill him? look at the abbadon comparison without a non-existant invul.
additionally you cannot use transfixing gaze on the swarmlord because he is no IC. also tyrants usually run around with guards that carry lashwhips (2 wounds to absorb & meph striking at I1).

that you better should shoot him dead? well a bs4 s7 ap2 weapon has a 44,44% of knocking a wound off mephi for every shot so you need 11,25 shots to kill him. that is as few as 6 rapid firing plasma guns + whatever you want on top of that to be shure. the said 10 man sternguard droppod has 20 shots. unless you either want to risk damage by dangerous terrain or loose speed by walking isntead of flying you are going to use LOS blocks to shield him and that is easily negated by dropping behind (smart play).

or that you can better kill him with 1000 points (of no fail- army. sorry but that necron list seams to be designed to get rolled by meph)?

well just to make you happy a "proof" like all yours:
4 squads of 5 stealers+1 broodlord /w implant attacks each and 1 tyranid prime /w lashwhip, bonesword and devourer (only 675 so not even the full 1000pts)


Broodlords cast hypnotig gaze each. With LDS10 they have a 0,583 chance to bypass Mephs psychic hood and a 0,583 chance to stun him, each. To get the chance of mephi beeing able to strike we have to calculate (1-(0,583*0,583))^N=0,66^N with N beeing the number of broodlords alive.

Turn 1:
4 Broodlords alive, 20 Stealers
1 Tyranid Prime alive
5/5 wounds for Mephiston

Mephiston is reduced to I1

4 Broodlords strike at I7,
16 Attacks, 8 hits, scoring 8/6 armor alowing wounds by rolling 5 to wound and 8/6 armor ignoring (rending), instant death (implant attacks) wounds. actually he is already death here but lets carry on.

20 stealers strike at I6
40 attacks, 20 hits, 20/6 armor ignoring wounds

Tyranid prime strikes at I4
4 Attacks, 2 Hits, 2/3 armor ignoring, possible instand death wounds.

cumulated damage: 8/6+20/+4/6=32/6 =5,33 +8/36 (trough armor saves).

if he survives (or the lashwhip wasnt there to start with) he has a 0,66^4 chance to strike against the 4 psychic powers resulting in 19% chance to be able to strike.

[Judge]

Excellent, Xas. You have largely established that 675 points of 5th edition Tyranids can successfully defeat 250 point Mephiston. I don't believe that anyone's contested the point (see Conclusion in the original post concerning difference in editions), but your approach was largely correct. Please remember to include a list of assumptions (you can use mine from the original post, but you made another in that Tyranids would get Lash Whips in base to base context - not all all certain, even if they charge [which they probably wouldn't], as only 4 models can physically fit in base to base around Mephiston). Also, please finish your your scenarios. (20/6 would be 3.33, for example - enough to heavily wound, but not by themselves kill, Mephiston, and only 6s from Stealers can penetrate his toughness.)

As for Abaddon, it appears that I have to rerun the scenario myself. However, since we're now nitpicking, Mephiston will use the full range of his abilities (as will Abaddon), to include fleet moving for the charge. If you want to presume that Abaddon gets a round of shooting off first (and Mephiston doesn't), subtract 0.03 wounds from Mephiston per shooting round (0.06 for rapid fire).

Round 1:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Transfix Gaze, Sanguine Sword succeed.
Mephiston strikes. 6 attacks (/2)
Reroll misses (3/2)
Mephiston wounds (4.5*5/6)
Reroll failed wounds (.75*5/6)
4.37 wounds
Abaddon saves (4.37/2)
2.19 wounds taken. (1.81 remaining).
Abaddon's initiative.
Daemon weapon yields 3.5 extra attacks, no daemon attack. 7.5 attacks total.
Abaddon strikes. 7.5 attacks (/2)
Abaddon wounds (3.75*5/6)
Reroll failed wounds (.63*5/6)
3.65 wounds (1.35 remaining).

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Transfix Gaze fails, Sanguine Sword succeeds, Unleash Rage succeeds.
Mephiston strikes. 5 attacks (/2)
Reroll misses (2.5/2)
Mephiston wounds (3.75*5/6)
3.13 wounds
Abaddon saves (3.65/2)
1.57 wounds taken. (0.24 remaining).
Abaddon dies.

Mephiston wins. 1.35/5 wounds remaining.
Cost Percentage: 91%

Why does Mephiston, a Chief Librarian, have a better raw statline than the Warmaster of Chaos, you ask? Why can his weapon cause instant death, when Abaddon's can't? Why oh why on earth is he a fleet jump troop? Even granted Mephiston being Sanguinis's heir (not at all supported by the 5th edition codex), Abaddon is Horus's, and look at how the fight between primarchs went. A 4+ invulnerable save is no match for greater toughness, greater wounds, and an ability to fly into cover (buildings, anyone? There's a 4+ save right there!). Extra attacks (with more dangerous repercussions) are no match for S10/rune weapon instant killing. Chaos is running off an older edition codex, true, but as they have a more recent 4th edition codex (2!), they're not likely to see improvement for at least another year - likely more. Why is the Talon of Horus not master crafted, you ask? Good question - they probably didn't want him to be "overpowered."

[XHound87]

Shooting was removed from the scenarios for obvious (and stated) reasons. Were it reintroduced, you'd find in a majority of cases that it influenced events in Mephiston's favor, as per the Flashlight illustration amended to the main post, or the more elaborate Necron Army illustration. If you disagree, illustrate your complaints with complete, well-thought-out scenarios instead of sniping with meaningless diatribe.

I find it interesting how you think that introducing shooting into the scenario would, in the majority of cases, influence events in Mephiston's favor. Without doing any math, mostly because it's entirely uneeded in this specific circumstance, a smart player will throw out a good deal of shots to stop this literal one man wrecking crew. It's quite possible that at least one wound will get through. Maybe even more, as going by pure stats as fact is incorrect, and that it's possible that you will roll awful for a turn. Not probable, but definitely possible. The statement that shooting, basically, will generally help him just seems unintuitive and incorrect in my eyes.

The big thing here is that you're lacking a disclaimer, and perhaps a needed one. Remember that these are purely grade school statistics following a very simple mathematical formula.

And while, yes, your math is sound, you fail to note that, while these are the scenarios that are most likely to occur, they are by no means a certainty.

Yeah, we've established that Meph is a pretty bad dude, one that beats up kids in school for their lunch money. But you're taking all the math in a bubble atmosphere, where it's only basically a 1v1 in any case. Anyone who knows what they're up against will plan for doing something against Meph. Especially for a veteran, it's never a realistic case where he'll reach the lines entirely unscratched. Mistakes do happen, yes. Anyone who's played the game has made a mistake (or a hundred). And heck, sometimes (but more rarely) you just get stuck into an unavoidable situation. But in general, Mephiston won't have free reign to take down whole armies on his own.

These statistics, while meaningful in the context provided, have less meaning and accuracy outside of the extremely restrictive bubble that you've provided. Remembering that there is absolutely no certainty that any of this will happen, these points lose some of their value. 40k is a big game, lots of rules, and plenty of chances to do damage for both sides.

But since I feel my statements will be claimed as not holding water without any mathematical backup (even though these are not math-oriented statements) I suppose I'll have to crunch some numbers.

Let's go ahead and say that I've got a unit of 15 lootas (yep, I play orks too), and lets give them a generous advantage as you have given mephiston in these other scenarios. I have 1/3 chance to have 3 shots per model, and let's give them that for the purposes of this scenario.

45 shots at 1/3 chance: 15 hit
15 hits at 2/3 chance: 10 wounds
Chance to fail a save: 1/6 or .16666...
10 wounds at 1/6 chance: 1.6666..... wounds

Already he's taken 1 wound, with a more-likely-than-not chance of taking a second as well.
However, something that's not being taken into account is the range of failure. Let's assume, for a second, that all the stats up to the saves have been mathmatically exact, We have our ten wounds. Everything up to this point is saying that he *will* save 8-9 of his wounds. Which is statistically wrong, as there are no certainties. The better language would be he'd *most likely* make those saves. As any player who has to make many 2+ saves will tell you, that seems to be pretty insignificant when rolling dice that are random and independant from each other. Mephiston very well could roll all 10 of his saves, whereupon the shooting player would groan and hope to get him next time. He could also roll just 7 of his saves, and he'd have 2 wounds left. Now he's not looking all that scary. And while it's statistically unlikely, he *could* certainly fail more. Perhaps that one loota boyz squad put those 10 wounds and Mephiston failed 5/10 of those saves. Improbable, but possible. And then we wouldn't have to worry about all that. This also isn't taking into account my other 15 boy loota squad, my ork boyz squads' big shootas, my deffkoptas, my nob biker squad, or my flash gitz, any of which could add that firepower and possibly (though again, depending on the source, not probably) contribute wounds.

The big point is that you can't take this in a bubble atmostphere where you're up against a whole army that could, essentially, take him down. Yes, he's a beast in combat, and has plenty of tools to help him establish that. Awesome! Except that some of his tools can backfire, there could be bad rolling for any of his attacks or good rolling on the part of your opponent, and a ton of other statistics that all add up. It makes the bubble stats have much less meaning than given here, and in the context of an actual game just won't generally be considered.


Either way, quit taking things so personally (as, ironically, you've accused me of doing). No one here cares how smart (or dumb) you are.

Now I know this is the internet, where no one cares of the intelligence of any other poster or who they are, etc. But as far as I'm aware, this forum is something for intelligent deliberation of topics, as well as a hotbed for good advice and bouncing ideas off each other for improving the game play of others. Most of the posters are keeping their good manners hat on when they post, and generally seem to be civil. You have been a bit abrasive, all for being about "proof proof proof" when sometimes there needn't be any for the statement given, and then you disregard those same posts if because they didn't give evidence, possibly because they, indeed, didn't need to. Going for a pure mathhammer sort of thing gives a decent picture of what any given average roll should be, but take into account that a given player will be rolling hundreds, perhaps even one thousand or more, dice in a single game, and the possiblity that *everything* will be math-hammer accurate is insignificant (>1%). I have a feeling that others feel a bit put down. Come off your high horse a bit. We're all trying to be civil and generally pleasant, and it helps if everyone can follow that to some extent, as that's what makes this a good forum.

[Judge]

We're all trying to be civil and generally pleasant.


You have been a bit abrasive....


Come off your high horse a bit.

Please don't put too fine a point on this, but your one statement does seem to be directly contradicted by the others. If you really mean to establish the civility of this forum, please apoligize for "judging" me, and I will do the same.

Nothing exists inside a vacuum. Well, except for space, to include stars, planets, and generally everything inside the known material universe. If you'd read the main post, which is generally a prerequisite for polite, intelligent discourse, you'd know that this topic was addressed in the main post, and debate the conclusions of the main post instead of what you perceive to be a fault from skimming through the numbers bit to disagree with the conclusions you never read. I will gladly do the same should I visit any threads initiated by you.

Absent a certain degree of standards, which I'd be pleased if you noted I've refined here based upon user comments, with due credit offered and apologies when called for, the topic of conversation devolves from intelligent objectivity to the nonsensical discourse of subjective opinions. If someone says to you, "Do not drink water because I believe all water to be poisonous," though you and many others have been drinking water all of your lives, do you stop because of an unverified opinion? What level of credence do you offer the issuer of such profound statements.

I believe that many of the objections raised to the outlined scenarios - not specific corrections, such as, "You forgot Abaddon's immune to Instant Death" (I apologize for the oversite), but "You can't prove anything with math" - are counterproductive, in that they devolve the conversation in just the manner formerly outlined. If you perceive offense, I invite you to seek discourse of lower standards, wherein my "gradeschool mathematics" need trouble you not.

[BuFFo]

Why don't you match up a tooled out Archite and Mephy.

Would be interesting to see :)

[XHound87]

Please don't put too fine a point on this, but your one statement does seem to be directly contradicted by the others. If you really mean to establish the civility of this forum, please apoligize for "judging" me, and I will do the same.

Nothing exists inside a vacuum. Well, except for space, to include stars, planets, and generally everything inside the known material universe. If you'd read the main post, which is generally a prerequisite for polite, intelligent discourse, you'd know that this topic was addressed in the main post, and debate the conclusions of the main post instead of what you perceive to be a fault from skimming through the numbers bit to disagree with the conclusions you never read. I will gladly do the same should I visit any threads initiated by you.

Absent a certain degree of standards, which I'd be pleased if you noted I've refined here based upon user comments, with due credit offered and apologies when called for, the topic of conversation devolves from intelligent objectivity to the nonsensical discourse of subjective opinions. If someone says to you, "Do not drink water because I believe all water to be poisonous," though you and many others have been drinking water all of your lives, do you stop because of an unverified opinion? What level of credence do you offer the issuer of such profound statements.

I believe that many of the objections raised to the outlined scenarios - not specific corrections, such as, "You forgot Abaddon's immune to Instant Death" (I apologize for the oversite), but "You can't prove anything with math" - are counterproductive, in that they devolve the conversation in just the manner formerly outlined. If you perceive offense, I invite you to seek discourse of lower standards, wherein my "gradeschool mathematics" need trouble you not.

As somehow I got logged out of the system, and lost my very long response to your statements (and am now quite irritated because I feel that the statement had worth in this case) I will do a much shorter summary:

On your response to my post, I am not judging you, nor am I establishing the civility of this particular forum. I was making an observation that your posts could conceivably come across as aggressive, abrasive, and that people could just plain brush off your claims.

Making a claim that I didn't read your first post is also incorrect. I'm aware of all the restrictions you have put into your data as to pertain to this very small bubble atmosphere. I also agree with all of your conclusions to a point. (there was a muuuuuuch longer examination for this but, T_T)

Pertaining to you saying that I claim that you can't prove anything with math, again is wrong. That is the disclaimer I am talking about. There is no certainty in statistics, otherwise it wouldn't be a stat. There's no certainty that you could get any single result, only that you will get *a* result. There's a trend and a probability that it could happen, but no certainty. I say this because your posts could come across as absolute to some readers.

My big issue with your claims is that they have little relevance to the big picture. What happens if you wreck my Avatar, only to get blown apart by Fire Dragons on the next turn? What did it accomplish? Or even more to the point, what happens if you played right into my plan because of it? I suppose what I'm challenging you for is coming up with some broader claims/conclusions as to what uses Meph has, or perhaps how to counter him effectively, even with a veteran player playing the BA. As it stands this data, while more or less comprehensive and accurate, has little use in a game. A raw generalization of averages doesn't hold water in a game where the randomness of the dice has a huge effect on everything, especially when those events happen several times turn.

Is it not good philosophical sense to challenge and question?

A (now very quick) post note, I do appologize for the way my "elementary math" comment came off, but I don't appologize for the reason. This math is very simple, and I feel that, if you're as learned a person as I think you are, you can make this a much more advanced analysis and still keep it understandable to the forum.

[addamsfamily36]

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Transfix Gaze fails, Sanguine Sword succeeds, Unleash Rage succeeds.
Mephiston strikes. 5 attacks (/2)
Reroll misses (2.5/2)
Mephiston wounds (3.75*5/6)
3.13 wounds
Abaddon saves (3.65/2)
1.57 wounds taken. (0.24 remaining).
Abaddon dies.

Mephiston wins. 1.35/5 wounds remaining.
Cost Percentage: 91%

Judge i have a small point to make on this one:

Did you Presume that mephiston charged because he used wings of sanguinius?

If so you have cast 4 psychic powers in one turn and he can only cast 3.

[harrybuttwhisker]

"there are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics" or some such nonesense lol

[XHound87]

Judge i have a small point to make on this one:

Did you Presume that mephiston charged because he used wings of sanguinius?

If so you have cast 4 psychic powers in one turn and he can only cast 3.

Actually, Judge is correct. Wings, Sword, and Rage make 3 psychic powers. Transfix Gaze is an ability, not a psychic power, and he isn't using his force weapon's ability (as it's useless against Abaddon).

[addamsfamily36]

Originally Posted by addamsfamily36
Judge i have a small point to make on this one:

Did you Presume that mephiston charged because he used wings of sanguinius?

If so you have cast 4 psychic powers in one turn and he can only cast 3.
Actually, Judge is correct. Wings, Sword, and Rage make 3 psychic powers. Transfix Gaze is an ability, not a psychic power, and he isn't using his force weapon's ability (as it's useless against Abaddon).

My bad i didnt realise it was 2 rounds of combat i thought it was two scenarios/situations. Cause at first i was like WHAT !! kill abaddon in one round? but re-read and realised my mistake.

my bad :D

[Judge]

Good looking out anyway, addams. Please note that in the scenario against Abaddon I listed, Mephiston charged using the Fleet rule instead of Wings of Sanguinis, reducing the overall psychic power tally, and allowing Abaddon a chance for some free shooting attacks to illustrate how useless they are while removing Mephiston's considerably more useful Infernus Pistol from the equation. As per the Flashlight game, Str 3 and Str 4 non-AP 1 or 2 shooting attacks are all but meaningless against a Space Tyranid. A combination of Fleet and Jump rules is potentially deadly in normal troop hands, but in an Ubel Blatt? It's ridiculous.

I apologize as well, XHound. Honestly, I intended my comments to come off as abrasive, as I take offense as easily as the next Ork, but am less tolerant of hypocrisy. If you'll look through the first two pages of posts in this thread, you'll see that a little less than half address minor corrections to scenarios, around half criticize my numbers for (somewhat crack-brained) odd reasons, and none address my listed conclusions directly. For ease of edification, here are the conclusions I listed (before adding the Flashlight and 1,000 point Necron Army scenarios):

Conclusions Based Upon Results:

1) 5th edition armies have more powerful melee than 3rd and 4th edition armies, as evidenced by relative performance of superior melee units, to such a degree that players using 3rd and 4th edition armies might well consider not playing with/against players using 5th edition armies. Note that while Mephiston kills 5th edition characters as well as 3th and 4th edition characters, he does so with greater difficulty, often receiving wounds in the process.
2) Instant Death weapon units with high initiative have a comparative advantage against units not possessing instant death weapons.
3) Mephiston's performance is not in keeping with unit cost.

I go on to detail personal observations about the viability of army lists and the nature of game balance, most of which is above the heads of casual players (I don't even remotely understand how, as the material's simple and as easy to follow as I could express, but experience dictates that to be the case). I don't mean the preceding statement to seem arrogant or condescending, but it does, doesn't it?

Now, on to your specific concerns, as I'm reading them, I apologize for assuming you didn't read the entire original post. Part of my reason for doing so is that this:


My big issue with your claims is that they have little relevance to the big picture.

is addressed in the main post in the explanations following conclusions. To whit: Mephiston is more effective against a broader variety of units than other Blood Angel units with similar costs, in almost every scenario you could name (even in shooting, in a sense, since he fires himself out of a jet engine). From the start, Nightbringer is an outstanding example of this concept as illustrated. The difficulty with having greater cost effectiveness and utility than other units from the same army is that Mephiston will take top spot over said other units, meaning you'll see him in every game. _Every_ game. I like Mephiston, but I have a problem with that. Don't you? I'm honestly getting the impression that you don't, and I don't understand why. That's one HQ spot (maybe the only fielded spot) out of a scarce two locked down, when there are more Blood Angel HQ options than troop choices!

As for a more detailed, in-depth, or statistically advanced case, I could make one - oh yes. As for making it understood? I can *say* what the results are of a study that only statisticians would understand, but nobody would believe me, unless they were already inclined to agree with the results, and do you know how I know that? I know that because I can't even get a majority of posters in this forum to *get* to a conclusion to comment on it because they're too busy citing non-existant flaws in my first grade mathematics! _No one_ has made a single comment on the difference in editions, and if you go by order and length of my conclusions, that's the central tenant of this thread. Please, tell me. How can I less rudely express what I see as the truth?

[XHound87]

And that may very well be true, as to an extent, no one else has brought up the conclusions you've made in any other point. If it helps, I shall not question the numbers any more than I have already. And since I hadn't elaborated in my previous post about your conclusions, I shall do so now (also because I did and they were erased earlier, ugh). Also noting that I do agree with your findings.

I'd first like to point out with your edition discrepancies conclusion, it is indeed illustrated through your findings, though I'd think that it would be a common sense thing that, barring a very odd special character, the 5th ed. codexes are more in line with each other, and in our given scenario, have more answers in close combat for this beast. They're just plain more powerful, and that is proven well in your numbers, even though they still get torn apart.

As far as your second point, I think that goes without saying, especially given that it's the one real weakness that Meph has outside of no invuln. However, even this weakness isn't really so, and here's why: most codexes don't have much of anything that causes inherent instant death in close combat. SM have force weapons, CSM have force weapons and the Slaanesh demon weapon, Eldar have the diresword. Orks, Tau, IG, and Necron don't have a single thing for that. I haven't seen the Chaos Demons, Dark Eldar, or Sisters books recently so I don't know if they have anything in line with this either. The biggest exception is Tyranids, as they have plenty, including on one of their basic troop choices (and technically they have two choices for it, one being a variation of the first). There just aren't all that many otherwise to chose from. Of those listed, only tyranids have any chance of being that fast. I won't count Eldar because a Dire Avenger Exarch is exceptionally weak, and not counting a SM Epistolary either, because to even get a chance to strike, it's a psychic test and Meph has a hood.

For your third point, again I agree. Especially pointed out by your findings, and I have no reason to doubt that other units would fall similarly, his performance almost always outstrips his given points value.

Following that, yes, that statement about the following data could be construed as condescending/arrogant, but it's very easy to understand and I can fully see where you're coming from. Yeah it could go over their heads, but would it matter for them? I understood it, and to me that's what matters. lol.

I do indeed see what you mean about his effectiveness against literally everything. In my mind, it goes beyond jack-of-all trades. He can masterfully kill characters, tanks, swarm units to an extent. He doesn't have an overwhelming weakness to balance it. Hell, even the fact that he isn't an IC helps him out. I can't use things that only work on them, for example (I'd love to use Old Zogwart on him, but it specifically targets an IC, so that rules that hilarity out). At my store, we haven't seen an overwhelming number (read: yet) use Meph in their lists, but I could very well see where you're coming from and understand entirely. I also play Tyranids actively, and most of the other nid players run Doom of Malan'tai in every list. It comes across as the same reason, but Doom has an extensive weakness where Meph doesn't.

And on your point, yes I do hate seeing that. I play for fun and flavor, and it really ruins it for me when I see every BA player with Mephiston in every list. Same with Doom and Swarmlord for 'Nids, same for Eldrad in Eldar or Abaddon in CSM. It just plain kills it.

I can comprehend most of what's thrown around nowadays, I've played too long not to. you strike me as the kind of person that has a similar background in this case.

The last thing I'd like to post is this: poor poor Necrons. I feel sorry for them.

[ZenPaladin]

Judge its been an interesting read and I agree that all your points are valid. I don't agree with all the points but I do agree they are valid. So before I pose my point let me say thanks for all the hard math and well reasoned arguments.

Just so you know where I am coming from I'm a Tau, Necron player. Obviously codex's with edition discrepancies will almost always favor the most recent editions there of. Though a lot of people are making arguments for the viability of older codex's like Dark Eldar and Witchhunters I don't think anyone is going to argue that 5th edition characters and combat oriented units are far and away more powerful than older edition equivalents. Probably because they can't consolidate into new units to hide and therefore tend to die if sent in unsupported.. Either way I wouldn't suggest that you just avoid playing those newer armies. Surely you can still have fun whilst playing against newer armies than your own?

Of course instant death weapons beat non instant death weapons! I mean who's gonna say.. give me the non-instant death weapon? Initiative has little to do with that! I think what you mean is that ID weapons become more and more powerful the faster that the wielders become. Again.. that's kind of obvious if you kill them before they hit you back of course you win!

Mephstion is under costed? Yeah.. so are a lot of characters.

Now someone somewhere has to be the most powerful character in the game. Is it Mephiston? Maybe.. but it's got to be someone. And we can bet that whoever that person is is in fact under costed. Do you really think every Blood Angel player out there is going to take Mephiston constantly? Regardless of wither or not he is the most powerful choice? As some people have pointed out he does have some disadvantages as well.

For me I look at it this way.. Mephestion, under costed as he is still represents a significant investment of points. I don't have to beat him I just have to make sure hes not that useful. And example is vs my Tau. Everything beats the Tau in close combat. When I see Mephiston am I to be up set that I can't defeat him in hand to hand? Of course not! I'm more likely happy that so many points went to such overkill! And that they have one target for my rail-gun's, rifles, plasma and melta. Surely the guard feel the same way. Those who are not fielding massive blobs of fearless guardsmen with hidden fists and power weapons.

Do you really think Mephiston is going to break the game or ruin the blood angels? I don't. Though I will be honest... I haven't crunched the numbers on it. ;)

[addamsfamily36]

And on your point, yes I do hate seeing that. I play for fun and flavor, and it really ruins it for me when I see every BA player with Mephiston in every list. Same with Doom and Swarmlord for 'Nids, same for Eldrad in Eldar or Abaddon in CSM. It just plain kills it.

I will be highly disappointed if i see mephiston lists crop up left right and centre. I have been a long fan of his background and character and have always taken him, i loved him in the white dwarf pdf when i personally knew few players that took him. and then with the release of the new codex he became ultra popular which is good, but at the same time i now have a lot of copy cat lists of my army at my local GW:(


P.s - from long experience of using him under last edition and now under the latest addition, i would agree that he is an exceptional bargain for his points, but for me he hasn't ruined or unbalanced the game , as i find that although he is harder to kill in certain circumstances than he was previously, he is easier to kill in others. Here are a few examples of what i mean:

- in the white dwarf Pdf he had feel no pain as standard. This meant large amounts of low-average strength fire power could be shrugged off. In the new book, you need to keep him near a priest as, something like 3 eldar war walkers with guide, and then doom on mephiston( if the eldar player got really lucky) spells a lot of trouble for him.

- Snipers !! These guys so have a poster of Mephiston on their wall that they use for target practice. A unit of path finders will always wound mephiston on a 4+ and well with their chance to Ap1 on 5's and 6's there's an increased chance of unsavable wounds coming his way. you wouldn't even need guide on this unit just enough of them say 10 and Mephiston will drop in wounds quickly that is if he hasn't already died.

- losing IC rule - although cunning placement can keep him away from ap 1 and 2 weapons, this often means he'll not be in the best location for fighting or going after the units you want him too.

Just thought i would share these experiences

[Judge]

Damned skippy about the Necrons, X.

addams, remember 3rd edition War Walkers with Guide and Starcannons? Absolutely devastating against pretty much any non-vehicle unit you could name, but they're made of paper! They were always the squad that I wanted to field, but never did for fear of a stray Basilisk shot wiping out 1/3rd of my army!

I don't think this one unit's going to break the game, Zen. Hell, I've played Apocalypse - almost any Titan you name's overly effective against most armies for cost, which's why folks field Titans against Titans. I know someone who brought a scratch-built Warlord Titan to game once (he did an excellent job), and I had to field an old Star Wars ATAT toy from the '80s (we called it an IG Leviathan) full of Lascannon teams just to make things competitive.

I've played an awful lot of fun games that are more or less completely borked. Greater degrees of borkiness do decrease replayability, but so does vanillination. I've manually balanced out RTS games, however, with nearly 400 units with every unit, in its context, being equally viable in risk versus cost terms, each still wildly varied for flavor, and I've got to say that it's a lot more enjoyable to be able to field the units I like and also have good odds of winning without having to only like the units that have good odds of winning.

Poor Tau. Here's how Fire Warriors do at shooting Meph.

30 Fire Warriors
30 shots
15 hits
5 wounds
.83 wounds not saved.

Rapid Fire?

30 Fire Warriors
60 shots
30 hits
10 wounds
1.67 wounds not saved.

Say you'll get two rounds of shooting Meph before he's on you, one of them Rapid Fire (you won't). It would take 60 Fire Warriors to bring him down (unless I'm mis-remembering their Ballistic Skill). After he's on them, they'd do practically zero wounds in CC. Say you shot him with Broadsides instead?

3 Broadsides
3 shots
1.5 hits (reroll 1.5 misses)
2.25 hits total
1.88 wounds.

Am I wrong about Broadside BS too (I might be - codex check, anyone)? It would take three rounds from them. Essentially, you could spend Round 1 firing your entire army at Meph and he still stands strong odds of not going down. That's normal for some armies, but Tau? Shooting?

I can make an index of Str v T v AS v AP pretty easily, and it's not outside the realm of feasibility to make a spreadsheet listing every unit in every army in every configuration and directly comparing them against each other with a small set of reasonable assumptions in order to generate absolutely optimal army lists for any kind of battle, or produce lists of maximum utility for every type of battle (relying on troops with maximum efficiency against the greatest number of opposing configurations). The problem is that if I can do it, so can others, to include the people who're writing the codexes to begin with.

I've a fair notion that a basic level of statistics spawned part (but not all - ordnance?) of 3rd edition, which, while not as flavorful as 2nd edition, gave us a broad range of codexes that all functioned rather well with each other as a whole. I think that 4th edition was an aborted attempt to get to 5th, which seeks to add flavor and lessons learned to 3rd edition (such as more survivable vehicles, greater spontenaity ala instant death, and compensation for some underachievers). Jump troops were too relatively expensive in 3rd (and I understand why - it's easy to overvalue speed, given potential that's only seldom realized), but the answer isn't to drop the effective cost of a jetpack from 15 points in 3rd to 3 points (Blood Angels assault squads) in 5th at random, test it in the hodge podge of randomly selected (neutered) army lists that we see in White Dwarf, and let it loose on that fans when even basic mathematical discernment can pick out exceptions. This makes me think that they're short a numbers guy. Maybe I should send in a resume, eh?

Abaddon was brutal, and almost certainly overpowered for cost, but shooting had much better odds of bringing him down than Mephiston. The same can be said of the Swarmlord in 5th. Say that their movement ranges are equivalent to a standard flamer template (for purposes of illustration). Place the template at a base, and swing it around for an illustration of movement range. Now imagine a model with the same powerful close combat abilities, the same lack of decent ranged attacks (Swarmlord psychic powers are all shooting?, and none have great range), but use an Apocalypse template for their movement instead. Put it at a base, and swing it around for illustration of movement range. What would you think of a flying Abaddon?

Underpowered units aren't the same problem that overpowered units are. Underpowered units just don't get fielded - they might as well have their army list entries replaced with pure fluff as kindness to the new players. I've been an angry Eldar player ever since 2nd edition ended, but in 3rd edition at least I had my Striking Scorpions, Wraithlords and Seer Councils in order to stay competitive. In 4th I lost much of the utility of my Wraithlords, Jetbikes still weren't worth fielding, and the Shuriken Catapult was a joke. What now?

[ZenPaladin]

No your dead bang on the BS of Firewarriors and Broadsides. BS 3 for both of them and twin link the Broadsides. The numbers wouldn't change significantly for Terminators would they? Say a squad of deepstriking assault termies? How many could you get for the same price as Meph? And that squad could assault and kill multiple units.

That's my point. Meph is bad bad broken. But he's still only one guy and limited to one kill a turn unless you are feeding him units. If I felt like I was going to play Blood Angels I would probibly field a unit of Crisis Suits with Plasma Rifles and Fusion guns. Three shots of AP 2 and 1 respectivily and I would try to get a markerlight or two on him to drive the BS up to 5. Then I would hopefuly kill Meph in a single round.. lets see if I can do this right.


6 Plasma Shots
5 Hits
2.5 Wounds

3 Melta Shots
3 hits
3 or 2 wounds?

Sorry my math sucks. Anyway that's what I would attempt. Then jump a sacrifice unit of gundrones around the crisis team for assault protection so I could try it again on a second round if nessicary. Now admitidly the rest of the Blood Angels would be eating up my army like candy whilst I'm worried about Super Vamp but..

I don't know. Honestly I agree with you. Have you ever tried Warmachine? Its got a lot better balance. I play 40K because of a combination of nostalgia, fluf and popularity. I also from time to time simply refuse to play games that I know wont be any fun. I wouldn't for example play a Chaos Demon army with my Empire army in fantasy. Just wouldn't do it. Don't want to spend the several hours out of my day having no fun. The jury's still out on the Blood Angels since noboby I know plays them. If I gave them a shot.. or 10 and they ate my lunch every single time well I might conisider not playing them again.

[KittenOfDeath]

Well I read through this thread and feel like adding my own opinion on dealing with Mephy, thunderhammer and storm sheild, the space marines best freind, especialy on characters, take Lysander or the Rockfist, if lysander charges either one of them he'll have 7 attacks, get about 6 hits and 5 wounds, with storm sheilds they'll save 3-4 of them, leaving both of them still alive, both will take off two to three wounds with their delicious strength 10 hammers, then finish him off in the next round, they might die in the next round, but mephy still dies in two player turns from things cheeper then him, at that point you may begin laughing at your oponents salty tears.

Stomshilds, never leave home without them.

[Judge]

Haven't tried Warmachine. Friends in the area play 40k, ya know? I'm not about to waste their (or my own) thousands of dollars invested.

For the shooting attacks, the way you run it's like this.

X number of shots (models multiplied by the number of shots each model gets).
Number of shots multiplied by odds of hitting (Ballistic Skill divided by 6.)
Number of wounds (number of hitting shots multiplied by [{3 plus[Strength minus Toughness]max of 5, min of 1} divided by 6.)

Since 1s always fail to hit and wound, for the Melta shots it would be (3*5/6)*5/6 = 2.08 wounds.
From the Plasma shots, you're correct that it would be (6*5/6)*3/6 = 2.5
Assuming the marker light hit, those weapons (if they're in range? Don't Fusion Blasters have a dangerously short range in that instance?) would cause ~4.58 wounds, leaving Meph .42 wounds left. You'd have slightly better than 50% odds of killing him. If the marker light didn't hit, you'd be in trouble, and the whole Blood Angel army can be in assault range by Round 2 (which is some real horse puckey - weren't Tyranids and Orks supposed to be the hand to hand armies? Not anymore!).

Termis would be a little more resilient against the Broadsides (1/3 wounds saved from 5+ invulnerable), but much more vulnerable to small arms fire (Fire Warriors would wound on a 3+ instead of a 5+, yielding double the number of wounds). Termis cost ~42 points a pop, depending on configuration, so you'd get about 6 unless you tripped them out with better weapons. The squad of 6 would go down faster, having only one more wound than Meph and much lower Toughness, and each loss would yield an incremental loss in combat power (1 wound = 1 less Termi in assault) while Meph would keep 100% of his payout until the last wound's lost. Oh yeah, and most Termis can't assault on the round they Deep Strike in whereas flying Mephiston is fleet.

The whole Blood Angel codex is a bit off - 5th edition seems to be shaping up that way. It wasn't so bad with Space Wolves, as their most broken units (seems to be) Nigel/Rune Priests with their Carnifex slaughtering Initiative attack and Instant Death weapons, but even those are balanced with normal Toughness and low wound counts. The Tyranid codex has an array of comparatively borked units. Str 8-10 AP 1-3 shooting weapons (instant death weapons) are literally the only thing lesser troop squads like Stealers and Gaunts have going against Tyranid Warriors, and with over a third of Tyranid unit options having Toughness 6, heavy weapons will be stretched mighty thin. Simply put, the extra wound (that came out of nowhere) Warriors have now, combined with instant death and superior ranged options, make them equal to or better than any other 'nid troop. They went from sucky to great out of nowhere, and I'd like to know why they didn't go to "just right." For Blood Angels, 2+ armor power weapon wielding jump troops and cheap Fast vehicles (we'll just skip the flying dreadnaught for a bit, since it at least is expensive). "Nuff said.

Kitten, I admire your enthusiasm, but I don't think you've learned much from this thread. Rockfist would die in Round 1 against Mephiston before he ever got an attack off in most cases. Odds are roughly even between his friend falling dead with him or getting off one round of attacks before he died in the next. If you really don't believe me, then please run the scenario yourself - it doesn't take long. I'll help you with the math if needed.

[addamsfamily36]

addams, remember 3rd edition War Walkers with Guide and Starcannons? Absolutely devastating against pretty much any non-vehicle unit you could name, but they're made of paper! They were always the squad that I wanted to field, but never did for fear of a stray Basilisk shot wiping out 1/3rd of my army

DO I !!:D , i used to love the old starcannons, Now they are less attractive. same cost (roughly), but with a shot reduction.


For one of the most advanced races ever to exist, the eldar currently seem to be being out tech'ed by pretty much everyone. :(

[Gir]

Why don't you put him up against some Special characters that have a chance?

I'm thinking:
Kharn the betrayer: Psychic powers don't work (Including Force Weapons)
Lucius: -1A and every saved would has a 50% chance of wounding meph back
Ahriman: Force Weapon, plus the ability to turn Meph into a choas spawn, even if in close combat.
Fabius Bile: If he deals a single wound to meph, meph is dead.

All with the exception of Ahriman and Typhus are also a hell of a lot cheaper then meph, and are inderpendant characters, so they can have a bodyguard buffer.

[Judge]

Darned skippy, addams. If they let an Eldar hater write the codex again, screw'em - I'm writing my own. Not like the Eldar will be playable in 5th until their codex comes out in another year or two, so forget 5th edition~

Gir, Indepedent Character status is a disadvantage against Meph, who can assign his hits against them in melee. As for the characters you listed I invite you to run the scenarios yourself, since they're not hard. I'll go ahead and run Kharn for you to get you started.

Mephiston vs. Kharn the Betrayer

Round 1:

Mephiston uses Transfixing Gaze, succeeds.
Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 5 attacks (/2)
2.5 hits. (2.5 misses rerolled /2)
3.75 hits. (*5/6)
3.13 wounds. (.62 misses rerolled *5/6)
3.23 wounds.
Kharn saves. (3.23*2/3)
2.15 wounds (0.85 remaining)
Kharn strikes. 6 attacks (*5/6)
5 hits. (/3)
1.67 wounds (3.23 remaining)

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 5 attacks (/2)
2.5 hits. (2.5 misses rerolled /2)
3.75 hits. (*5/6)
3.13 wounds. (.62 misses rerolled *5/6)
3.23 wounds.
Kharn saves. (3.23*2/3)
2.15 wounds (Negative 1.30 wounds remaining)
Kharn dies.

Cost percentage: 152%

Psychic immunity let Kharn survive round 1 as neither of Mephiston's two ways to instant kill him applied (Mephiston has _2_ ways to instant kill space marines!). Unfortunately, Mephiston's raw statline is incredibly superior even absent psychic powers.

As for the others you listed, none are immune to instant death, so all would die in Round 1 of combat without getting a single hit in. Even if they didn't, Lucius's armor means next to nothing against Meph, as a Str 4 hit only has a 1/6 chance to wound. Ahriman's Gift of Change means next to nothing, as it's rolled against Toughness, only this time Meph would get to use his psychic hood. Fabius Bile would die from instant death due to Sanguine Sword, making a force weapon check (which would also instant kill him) unecessary, as would seemingly tough Typhus. A better question would be "Just how many Chaos special characters would it take to bring Mephiston down?" even before factoring in that Meph can fleet fly and they can't.

[addamsfamily36]

Darned skippy, addams. If they let an Eldar hater write the codex again, screw'em - I'm writing my own. Not like the Eldar will be playable in 5th until their codex comes out in another year or two, so forget 5th edition~

I mean its still possible to field a very strong eldar army in 5th, And i personally think it has some real strengths, but they not only lost technology it seems, but also all character. The craftworld's were practically removed other than from background purposes. :(

[Judge]

Well, look at what they gained versus what they lost just from 3rd to 4th.

Army list flexibility - Inferior with the loss of Codex: Craftworld Eldar.

Avatars - Stronger, for a proportionally increased cost. No overall change.

Farseers - No overall change. Witchblades still stink.

Seer Council - Lost overall size, which was its primary advantage (by maximizing the effect of Fortune invulnerable armor saves).

Wrathguard - Same.

Wraithlords - Lost attack, gained a reroll if they take a sword (net loss). Best weapon (Starcannon) loses 1/3rd firepower. Inferior to 3rd edition.

Striking Scorpions - Same.

Banshees - Same. Still not worth taking.

Jetbikes - Cheaper. Still not worth taking.

Shining Spears - Cheaper. Still not worth taking.

Fire Dragons - Same.

Dark Reapers - Different, but not better or worse.

Guardians - Same. Still not worth taking.

Tanks - I honestly don't remember offhand. Did they improve a little? Starcannons on Falcons certainly didn't.

Am I misremembering any of this? Overall, I wasn't impressed with the 4th edition codex as my army lost a lot of badly needed flexibility and much of the edge their few strong units had, while their weak units didn't gain enough to field, and the monstrous injustice of Shuriken Catapults became even worse with the advent of move and rapid fire weapons.

In 5th edition, with its new focus on borked units in melee, the Eldar are essentially reduced to a shooting army, which they've only been average at since the end of 2nd edition. How did the Starcannons lose a shot when the primary gripe against them (Terminators, who got a 5+ invulnerable) still keeps the buff it got as a result! Essentially, they're a shorter-ranged Imperial Guard army with slightly better hand to hand and lousy blast templates. Ever wonder why the Eldar are a dying species? Now you know.

[Abuzorg]

What I would like to see, is your mathhammer for Mephiston versus a 9 man squad of Thousand Sons. Mephiston can cast all his powers.

The Thousand Sons are this way :

9 Thousand Sons
Aspiring Sorcerer - Warptime
269 points

They all have a 4+ Invulnerable save, marine statline, the Sorcerer has 3 attacks (2 base, 1 with pistol), Mark of Tzeentch, so he can cast both Warptime, wich allows him to reroll to hit and to wound, and his Force Weapon. Oh and yes, the Asp. Sorc is LD 10 for Psychic Hood purpose.

[addamsfamily36]

Well, look at what they gained versus what they lost just from 3rd to 4th.

Army list flexibility - Inferior with the loss of Codex: Craftworld Eldar.

Avatars - Stronger, for a proportionally increased cost. No overall change.

Farseers - No overall change. Witchblades still stink.

Seer Council - Lost.

Wrathguard - Same.

Wraithlords - Lost attack, gained a reroll if they take a sword (net loss). Best weapon (Starcannon) loses 1/3rd firepower. Inferior to 3rd edition.

Striking Scorpions - Same.

Banshees - Same. Still not worth taking.

Jetbikes - Cheaper. Still not worth taking.

Shining Spears - Cheaper. Still not worth taking.

Fire Dragons - Same.

Dark Reapers - Different, but not better or worse.

Guardians - Same. Still not worth taking.

Tanks - I honestly don't remember offhand. Did they improve a little? Starcannons on Falcons certainly didn't.

Am I misremembering any of this? Overall, I wasn't impressed with the 4th edition codex as my army lost a lot of badly needed flexibility and much of the edge their few strong units had, while their weak units didn't gain enough to field, and the monstrous injustice of Shuriken Catapults became even worse with the advent of move and rapid fire weapons.

In 5th edition, with its new focus on borked units in melee, the Eldar are essentially reduced to a shooting army, which they've only been average at since the end of 2nd edition. How did the Starcannons lose a shot when the primary gripe against them (Terminators, who got a 5+ invulnerable) still keeps the buff it got as a result! Essentially, they're a shorter-ranged Imperial Guard army with slightly better hand to hand and lousy blast templates. Ever wonder why the Eldar are a dying species? Now you know.

No i think you covered it all but if i may i'd like to make a few opinions of my own to add to yours:

Avatars: yup agree with your analysis- ok for poitns cost, but as representative of a fraction of a god? they need reworking.

farseers- i love them i used to play ulthwe so i miss the seer council a little bit, but withcblades for me work very nicely. if they were power weapons i would be estatic, but they would be too powerful so would need to lose the 2+ to wound rule and maybe gain adds 1-2 strength or something.

wraithguard are amazing, but who can afford 80 pounds for one 10 man unit?

Wraithlords: for me have become combat/fire drawing units. Weapons are so exspensive to put onto them.

striking scorpions: yeh pretty much the same.

Banshees : i love them!! use a unit of 10 , if you get off doom on a unit and these charge they are deadly. Got to keep them covered though as 4+ save and toughness 3 makes them like Cannon fodder. (but i still like them :))

Jetbikes : hate the models for one lol but rules wise, my other eldar was a saimhann one so i lost my favourite kinsman rules.

shining spears : hits hard then dies. any unit of an opposing players side of similar points cost looks at a unit of 3-5 of these and goes :confused:

fire dragons : best tank hunters in the game range 18 fire pike yes please.

Dark reapers : although got no worse or better, they didnt need it. they are one of the best units in the eldar book. (in my opinion)

Guardians: got an ulthwe army so i have 40 lol but with avatar in the centre and they become annoyingly resistant once you've thrown a few warlocks in there :D

Tanks: nope they lost crystal targetting matrix and certain wargear options. also they are still guardian Balistic skill of 3. - the eldars best pilots and still no better at shooting a tanks main gun then firing a shurikan catapult. :mad: lol


But yeh i agree with you, need some re visiting.

[Judge]

So I ran the scenario you requested, Abuzorg, and clicked to submit the post, but the forum had logged me out in the meantime so the entire post was lost. QUITE annoying. While the results are still fresh:

Mephiston wins at the top of the 4th Round. 3.7/5 wounds remaining.
Odds of Aspiring Sorcerer's Rune Weapon killing Mephiston: 39%.
Mephiston used Unleash Rage. Sanguine Sword and Rune Weapon were unecessary.

I made a few modifications to your requested unit, though. First off, the cost of 9 Thousand Sons + Aspiring Sorcerer + Warp Time was 292 points; not 269. Moreover, the Aspiring Sorcerer could only use one psychic power per turn, and Warp Time is far less effective than the possibility of the Rune Weapon going off for an instant kill. Final squad was 8 Thousand Sons, Aspiring Sorcerer (no Warp Time) for 244 points. Cost Percentage was 102%.

The way the psychic power would've gone off (as the 39% listed above assumes that each attack would have a chance for the Rune Weapon going off) doesn't account for the possibility of the Rune Weapon being tried in Round 1, failing, and not being available for Round 2. I didn't run the numbers on that, but I'd guess that the total impact would reduce the odds of killing Meph by less than 5%. Overall, quite an effective squad - I'd quite forgotten that Aspiring Sorcerers had Rune Weapons. There's a reason Thousand Sons players (and only Thousand Sons players) like the most recent Chaos codex, eh? They've been my favorite Chaos faction since 2nd edition, so I'm personally pretty pleased by their relatively strong performance.

[Abuzorg]

So I ran the scenario you requested, Abuzorg, and clicked to submit the post, but the forum had logged me out in the meantime so the entire post was lost. QUITE annoying. While the results are still fresh:

Mephiston wins at the top of the 4th Round. 3.7/5 wounds remaining.
Odds of Aspiring Sorcerer's Rune Weapon killing Mephiston: 39%.
Mephiston used Unleash Rage. Sanguine Sword and Rune Weapon were unecessary.

I made a few modifications to your requested unit, though. First off, the cost of 9 Thousand Sons + Aspiring Sorcerer + Warp Time was 292 points; not 269. Moreover, the Aspiring Sorcerer could only use one psychic power per turn, and Warp Time is far less effective than the possibility of the Rune Weapon going off for an instant kill. Final squad was 8 Thousand Sons, Aspiring Sorcerer (no Warp Time) for 244 points. Cost Percentage was 102%.

The way the psychic power would've gone off (as the 39% listed above assumes that each attack would have a chance for the Rune Weapon going off) doesn't account for the possibility of the Rune Weapon being tried in Round 1, failing, and not being available for Round 2. I didn't run the numbers on that, but I'd guess that the total impact would reduce the odds of killing Meph by less than 5%. Overall, quite an effective squad - I'd quite forgotten that Aspiring Sorcerers had Rune Weapons. There's a reason Thousand Sons players (and only Thousand Sons players) like the most recent Chaos codex, eh? They've been my favorite Chaos faction since 2nd edition, so I'm personally pretty pleased by their relatively strong performance.

Yeah I really meant the cost of 9 Thousand Sons including the Sorcerer. And the Aspiring Sorcerers can cast 2 Psychic Powers per player turn, just as any psyker can use 1 per player turn as well (this is based on the definition of turn in the rulebook). So there is no reason the sorcerer would not attempt both Warptime and Force Weapon each combat round. Anyway, thanks for running the scenario, 39% chance to kill insta-kill Meph is good enough. I suspect it only gets better when you combine both warptime and force weapon.

Also, I reread your vs Kharn scenario, and found something that wasn't right. Unleash rage and Sanguine sword do work against him, since these power are not directed against him, but rather on Mephiston himself. The CSM FAQ is pretty clear on how exactly Blessing of the Blood God works for him.

Very interesting thread overall.

[Gir]

Darned skippy, addams. If they let an Eldar hater write the codex again, screw'em - I'm writing my own. Not like the Eldar will be playable in 5th until their codex comes out in another year or two, so forget 5th edition~

Gir, Indepedent Character status is a disadvantage against Meph, who can assign his hits against them in melee. As for the characters you listed I invite you to run the scenarios yourself, since they're not hard. I'll go ahead and run Kharn for you to get you started.

Mephiston vs. Kharn the Betrayer

Round 1:

Mephiston uses Transfixing Gaze, succeeds.
Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 5 attacks (/2)
2.5 hits. (2.5 misses rerolled /2)
3.75 hits. (*5/6)
3.13 wounds. (.62 misses rerolled *5/6)
3.23 wounds.
Kharn saves. (3.23*2/3)
2.15 wounds (0.85 remaining)
Kharn strikes. 6 attacks (*5/6)
5 hits. (/3)
1.67 wounds (3.23 remaining)

Round 2:

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 5 attacks (/2)
2.5 hits. (2.5 misses rerolled /2)
3.75 hits. (*5/6)
3.13 wounds. (.62 misses rerolled *5/6)
3.23 wounds.
Kharn saves. (3.23*2/3)
2.15 wounds (Negative 1.30 wounds remaining)
Kharn dies.

Cost percentage: 152%

Psychic immunity let Kharn survive round 1 as neither of Mephiston's two ways to instant kill him applied (Mephiston has _2_ ways to instant kill space marines!). Unfortunately, Mephiston's raw statline is incredibly superior even absent psychic powers.

As for the others you listed, none are immune to instant death, so all would die in Round 1 of combat without getting a single hit in. Even if they didn't, Lucius's armor means next to nothing against Meph, as a Str 4 hit only has a 1/6 chance to wound. Ahriman's Gift of Change means next to nothing, as it's rolled against Toughness, only this time Meph would get to use his psychic hood. Fabius Bile would die from instant death due to Sanguine Sword, making a force weapon check (which would also instant kill him) unecessary, as would seemingly tough Typhus. A better question would be "Just how many Chaos special characters would it take to bring Mephiston down?" even before factoring in that Meph can fleet fly and they can't.

I did some math against Kharn and found that if kharn charges, and passes his Transfixing glaze test (Not difficult assumptions to make), after 2 turns, Kharn takes 2.6666 wounds, while mephiston has taken 4.5 wounds.

Also, don't rule out Gift of Chaos. Extremely high chance of being cast, Mephiston has the disadvantage when nullifying the power, and then there's a 1/6 chance of mephiston being killed. This can be done 3 times a turn! (Unless I missed something, it does not say Ahriman cannot cast and single power more then once).

The best way I would say to take down mephiston in purely combat (Which is stupid) with chaos special characters is with Fabius and Kharn. Eith kill fabius, and let kharn kill meph, or focus on kharn and let fabius land that one wound that kills meph. Points are about equal too.



But alas, all this is irrelevant, as many people have stated. If mephiston is getting into combat with your important units, you're not playing the game well. Also, you throw these probabilities around as if they're fact. They're not. The point is that game is random, and these exact probabilities would be lucky to occur 1 billionth of the time. I mean, against fabius, there's a chance every one of mephiston's attacks will miss (I've seen Ang'grath the unbound miss every attack on the turn he charged).

[Judge]

Abuzorg, I'd thought that might be the case with Kharn, but considered Sanguine Sword to be an ability creating an aura around the sword, which would extinguish on contact with Kharn, rather than an effect enhancing Meph's physical strength. You're probably right going with the Rule Boyz, but I'd pester them about it. Quite right on the psychic powers, though - my apologies. That, combined with additional Thousand Sons for a buffer, would have a significant impact on the outcome, yes. Blood Angels will have to send one of those flying Dreadnaughts or something.

Gir, your math's pretty atrocious. Kharn has a 42% chance per turn to beat Transfixing Gaze. The odds of Kharn getting the charge against Meph instead of the other way around are practically nill unless Meph's already wiped his first Chaos target (by which point it's probably too late to stop him from more than paying for himself). After two Rounds, presuming Kharn gets the charge *and* lives (2.66 wounds suggests he's already died), Meph would've taken 3.61 wounds.

Contrary to your nonsensical opinions, the probabilities do represent facts. They're reproducable. I haven't declared a victory until a greater than 50% probability of victory exists. This means that while the exact scenarios listed won't happen every time, or even a majority of the time, the overall outcome *will* occur more than 50% of the time. Perhaps you'll hit some lucky odds and Meph will miss Kharn for three rounds flat, giving Kharn a probability of killing him (as two rounds isn't enough), but you're demonstrably wrong if you think it'll happen often enough to matter. Dismissing odds as "irrelevent" because you don't understand them is your personal right, but don't think ignorance will change the way the world works. It won't.

[murrburger]

Well, look at what they gained versus what they lost just from 3rd to 4th.

Army list flexibility - Inferior with the loss of Codex: Craftworld Eldar.

Avatars - Stronger, for a proportionally increased cost. No overall change.

Farseers - No overall change. Witchblades still stink.

Seer Council - Lost overall size, which was its primary advantage (by maximizing the effect of Fortune invulnerable armor saves).

Wrathguard - Same.

Wraithlords - Lost attack, gained a reroll if they take a sword (net loss). Best weapon (Starcannon) loses 1/3rd firepower. Inferior to 3rd edition.

Striking Scorpions - Same.

Banshees - Same. Still not worth taking.

Jetbikes - Cheaper. Still not worth taking.

Shining Spears - Cheaper. Still not worth taking.

Fire Dragons - Same.

Dark Reapers - Different, but not better or worse.

Guardians - Same. Still not worth taking.

Tanks - I honestly don't remember offhand. Did they improve a little? Starcannons on Falcons certainly didn't.


Actually, Striking Scorpions got worse in 4th edition. They lost haywire grenades, and were reduced to str 3. (They got chainswords that give +1 str. What this means is that they now have a str 6 powerfist instead of a str 8 one)

Shining Spears were awesome in 4th edition. They were the marine killer. In 5th, though, they're garbage.

Jetbikes got a lot more viable, especially in 5th edition. For one thing, they're not Fast Attack anymore. In 4th yeah, they're pretty bad.

Falcons were great in 4th, and Fire Prisms got a lot better, too. Loss of CTM kind of hurt, but didn't hurt that much.

In all honesty (I've played Eldar since 2nd) 3rd edition Eldar were probably one of the cheapest armies of the time. Craftworld Eldar just made things a freaking disaster. I remember one of the Gt winning armies was literally like... 2x 10 guardians with starcannons, and a 100 man seer council that was just points denial.

In 4th, Eldar were annoying as hell with Harlequins that could hop out of a Falcon and leap from one squad to the next. Shining Spears that hit and run, just laying waste to Marines, almost invincible Falcons...

I'm actually curious as to what's going to happen to 5th edition Eldar. Will we see a more moderate codex, or will it be full of crazy BS and bucketloads of special rules? Will my Dark Angels be there to see the creep bubble burst? (Which has happened every time since 2nd, mind you.)

[Gir]

Gir, your math's pretty atrocious. Kharn has a 42% chance per turn to beat Transfixing Gaze. The odds of Kharn getting the charge against Meph instead of the other way around are practically nill unless Meph's already wiped his first Chaos target (by which point it's probably too late to stop him from more than paying for himself). After two Rounds, presuming Kharn gets the charge *and* lives (2.66 wounds suggests he's already died), Meph would've taken 3.61 wounds.

Contrary to your nonsensical opinions, the probabilities do represent facts. They're reproducable. I haven't declared a victory until a greater than 50% probability of victory exists. This means that while the exact scenarios listed won't happen every time, or even a majority of the time, the overall outcome *will* occur more than 50% of the time. Perhaps you'll hit some lucky odds and Meph will miss Kharn for three rounds flat, giving Kharn a probability of killing him (as two rounds isn't enough), but you're demonstrably wrong if you think it'll happen often enough to matter. Dismissing odds as "irrelevent" because you don't understand them is your personal right, but don't think ignorance will change the way the world works. It won't.

You through this extremely basic math around like a kid whose learned a new trick. You call me on my assumptions, yet your assumptions are just as bad, if not worse. You don't seem to be able to accept any criticism or suggestions against your claims.

The fact of the matter is that you have setup all your circumstances to benefit your hypothesis. You're playing to Mephistons strengths and ignoring his weaknesses. I've given a few circumstances where Mephiston would struggle, or the enemy would deal out more damage in points to him then the enemies worth. It all comes down to the Mephiston being highly venerable to ap2 weapons, which you find a lot of these days. I play Blood Angels, and I have since third edition. Not a single one of my friends is afraid of Mephiston, they all have plans to destroy him easily, even our Necron player (Seriously, that 1000pt necron list a crime, and deserves to loose to him)

[BuFFo]

Still would love to see Mephy try to take on a tooled out Archite from the Dark Eldar...

[KittenOfDeath]

Kitten, I admire your enthusiasm, but I don't think you've learned much from this thread. Rockfist would die in Round 1 against Mephiston before he ever got an attack off in most cases. Odds are roughly even between his friend falling dead with him or getting off one round of attacks before he died in the next. If you really don't believe me, then please run the scenario yourself - it doesn't take long. I'll help you with the math if needed.

I've run Rockfist/mephy on the table top a few times, he actualy kills him more often than he dies, he has to fail two saves in order to die, with a storm sheild that means about 6 wounds needs to be caused, mephiston usualy causes about 5, meaning he passes about 4 and lives, he strikes back, automaticaly hitting on threes, getting 3-4 hits and about that many wounds. Second round, thunder hammer effect kicks in, reducing Mephy to the same speed and they finish each other off quite nicely.

Now I havent actualy run it with Lysander before, but with more wounds for Mephy to get through and more base attacks, I assume it would even out his vulnerability to tranfixing gaze.

[murrburger]

Archite (Agoniser, Pistol, Combat Drugs, Shadow Field. I'm assuming that the Archon chose +1 Attack, and re-roll misses for combat drugs.)
1/6 chance of an autowound against herself (16.667)
Archite charges and attacks 6 times at Initiative 8. ( Probability to hit: 0..5 + 0.25reroll = 0.75)
4.5 attacks will hit. (Wounds on 4+)
2.25 wounds (With no saves)
Mephiston has 2.75 wounds left.

Mephiston attempts transfixing gaze. (Yeah, I know it happens at the start of the round, but it doesn't matter)
Archite will fail: 83.33% of the time.

Assuming transfixing gaze works (Mephiston does not need to use any psychic powers)
Mephiston attacks 5 times at initiative 8. (Probability to hit: 0.666 + .222reroll = .888)
4.86 attacks will hit. (Wounds on a 2 with re-roll, also, Instant death)
5.8332 wounds (Probability to wound 0.8333 + 0.1388reroll = 0.9722)
4.72 wounds
Archite will save 0.8333 of the time due to Shadowfield.
0.972 unsaved wounds that cause instant death.
0.787 unsaved wounds that cause instant death (This is right for sure)

Some notes. I gave the Archite the charge, and I assumed Mephiston's Transfixing Gaze passed. If anyone
wants me to run the maths with Mephiston charging, or being forced to use psychic powers, or whatever, I guess I could. I don't think it would do much to help the Archite, though.

From what I can tell, the Arhcite is up **** creek without a paddle. Even with the Shadow Field, she's probably screwed. Keep in mind that these are averages, and that I did not decide to factor in the psychic powers. (No need to, if Transfixing Gaze works)

I didn't feel like giving any sort of win percentage, the averages are right there, and that's that.

I could go further, but it's late, and, hoping my math is right, the results are pretty clear.

Also, Mephiston is 250 points, and the Archite is about 100 points less.

[Judge]

Good job, murrburger. Small correction would be reducing wounds done by 1 (it's normally hard to cause more wounds then you have hits or attacks), but this would only lower the odds of Meph killing the Archite to 81% (based on the rest of your numbers, which seem pretty reasonable). Transfix Gaze might well not pass, but it wouldn't matter. As for Eldar in 5th edition, they're not currently fieldable against 5th edition armies (based on personal observations and hand-to-hand comparisons here).

Kitten, your individual experiences might dictate Rockfist coming out ahead, but over 10 battles? 1,000? "About 5 wounds" isn't a very strong case. Moreover, does Rockfist have Eternal Warrior? If not, he dies twice in round 1 (instant death from Sanguine Sword and instant death from Force Weapon). "About 3-4 hits" is also nonsense. Please be more specific.

Gir, your new argument is that I'm ignoring Meph's weaknesses (which I'm not - I addressed them all in the main post, which you almost certainly failed to read). His specific weaknesses being: AP 2 weapons (instant death attacks, too, but you didn't list those). A Demolisher cannon has AP 1 (less than AP 2), yes? It takes an average of 6 Demolisher hits to kill Meph. Take a Str 7 plasma weapon? It takes an average of 7.5 hits. Take a Str 6 plasma weapon? 10 hits. Now factor in Ballistic skill of models firing these weapons (almost none of which give better than 2/3 chances to hit). How many AP 2 hits does it take to kill most Space Marine characters? What would a single Demolisher Cannon hit do to most? I also addressed the likelihood that a competent player will hide Meph with Line of Sight blockers; a point you seem determined to miss. If any of your friends aren't scared, and going by you I can understand why they wouldn't be, then you should field Meph and school them. Have you just not seen the 5th edition codex? Mephiston gained in almost every statline area (in some significant spots like Toughness and Wounds, he gained two points apiece!) for no significant cost increase.

[KittenOfDeath]

Kitten, your individual experiences might dictate Rockfist coming out ahead, but over 10 battles? 1,000? "About 5 wounds" isn't a very strong case. Moreover, does Rockfist have Eternal Warrior? If not, he dies twice in round 1 (instant death from Sanguine Sword and instant death from Force Weapon). "About 3-4 hits" is also nonsense. Please be more specific.


Ok, round one:

Mephiston attacking a weaponskill 5 non independant character on the charge, he begins with 7 attacks (5 base, 2ccws, charge) 4 hits, assume he passed the reroll power, it come out at 6 hits roughly. Strength 6 wounding toughness 4, 6 hits becomes 5 wounds, 4 saves are passed, rockfist has 1 wounds remaining.

Rockfist attacking mephy, 3+ to hit due to wargear, 3 hits. Strength 10 wounding toughness 6, 3 wounds.

Both characters are alive (Rockfist is EW) and Mephy is reduced to the same speed as Rockfist for the next player turn.

Round two:

Both characters attack at the same time.

Mephy have 6 attacks, 4 hits, assuming rerolls, 5 hits. Mephy causes 5 wounds, roughly 1 slips through the stormsheild.

Rockfist dies.

He strikes back, 3 attacks, 2 hits, 2 wounds. Mephiston dies


There, that is how things will go, not using decimal places due to the lack of decimal places on a d6, this is assuming an ideal situation for Mephiston, where he acheives all his powers with no perils, and Rockfists unit is either destroyed or never taken due to player stupidity (Arjac Rockfist is a unit upgrade for the wolf guard, he can be kept with them, or attached to a squad, unable to be singled out in either case)

If the numbers are run for Lysander, it will be much the same, only with more attacks directed at mephiston, more wounds for Mephiston to get through and rerolls to wound for Mephiston (due to Lysanders IC status) but when wounding on 2's the reroll doesnt make that big a diffrence.

[XHound87]

Now I'm thinking that Meph's weakness to ID weapons isn't really a weakness. With the exception of the Tyranids (who have ID weapons of some kind in all of their HQ choices, 3 troops choices counting Tervigon, and a FA choice), the other codexes don't have very many inherent Instant death CC weapons. Orks, IG, Tau, and Necrons don't have any. SM variants and CSM have force weapons, and in the CSM case they have a demon weapon that does the same. Eldar have dire swords. All the other armies I'm claiming ignorance/forgetfulness because I haven't seen the WH, DE, or CD books in a while.

Unless you're playing against bugs I just don't see it as a weakness for him, meaning that leaves him with just one identifiable weakness, which is the AP2.

Also, in response to someone mentioning Deathleaper in regards to its' "It's after me!" ability, I think it actually works on him, though it may not make a difference anyway. My reasoning is that the BRB identifies 3, not 2, types of character. You have your ICs, of which Necron Lords,Dante, and Ghazghkull are all a part of. Then your upgrade characters, like sergeants, exarchs, and the like, including named upgrade characters like Telion and Arjac. With the new codexes it puts some characters without either of those characterizations, which leaves the third one, a kind of supertype. That's the Unique character. While both ICs and Upgrade characters can be Unique, such as the named dudes above, some are just pure named characters. The codexes that this features in mainly are Tyranids and Blood Angels. For example, the Doom of Malan'tai, or in our current case, Mephiston.

My thoughts are that things that clearly affect "characters" (not ICs) would work against them, as they are defined as a character when they are given the "Unique" classification. This usually doesn't matter too much as most abilities will state Independant Character, but for those that just mention "character," such as the Deathleaper's ability above, then I believe it should work.

[Judge]

Sounds reasonable, X, but I'd get a Rule Boyz clarification before using it.

Kitten, the decimal points exist. There is no "about." You rounded numbers that seemed reasonable to you at the time, but they're not as reasonable as you'd think. Mephy only gets 6 attacks on the charge (CC weapon and Pistol only give 1 bonus attack, not 2).

Arjac Rockfist: Acute Senses, And They Shall Know No Fear, Counter-Attack, Stubborn, Grimnar's Champion, Foehammer, Anvil Shield, Wolftooth Necklace, Saga of the Bear, Terminator Armor.

Neither is IC, so no Transfixing Gaze or Grimnar's Champion effects. Both hit on a 3+.

Round 1:

Mephiston charges, gains the initiative.
Mephiston uses Unleash Rage. Passes.
Mephiston strikes. 6 attacks (*2/3)
4 hits. (Reroll 2 misses *2/3)
5.33 hits. (*5/6)
4.44 wounds (Rockfist saves /3)
1.48 wounds (0.52 wounds remaining)
Arjac strikes. 5 attacks (*2/3)
3.33 hits. (*5/6)
2.78 wounds. (2.22 wounds remaining)

Round 2:
Both strike at once.
Mephiston uses Unleash Rage. Passes.
Mephiston strikes. 5 attacks (*2/3)
3.33 hits. (Reroll 1.67 misses *2/3)
4.44 hits. (*5/6)
3.7 wounds (Rockfist saves /3)
1.23 wounds (-0.71 wounds.)
Rockfist strikes. 3 attacks (*2/3)
2 hits. (*5/6)
1.67 wounds. (0.55 wounds remaining).
Mephiston lives.
Rockfist dies.
Mephiston wins.

If you want to get really picky, I'd say Mephiston doesn't need to use Fleet to get the charge, so he could fire his Infernus Pistol.

Mephiston shoots. 1 shot (*5/6)
0.83 hits. (*5/6)
0.69 wounds. (*2/3)
0.46 wounds taken.

Tack that onto the top of Round 1, and Rockfist's dead before getting a hit in. Mephiston wins. 5/5 wounds remaining.

If Rockfist takes a squad (as he would), he'd get an extra round of attacks against Meph, which would kill Meph if he does lower Meph's initiative, and not if he doesn't. In Round 1, Mephiston would wipe his squad out (unless it cost a fair bit more than Mephiston). Please note that while Meph has just over half a wound left at the end of the second round, it's more than Rockfist had left at the top of the first.

A little more detail on your "lack of decimal places on a d6" argument. If I offer to sell you a pack of chewing gum for $0.55, do you pay me a dollar expecting no change? If I sell you a car for $15,250, do I charge you for $20,000? Do you look at a gas price like $2.99(99) and think gas costs $2.00 / gallon (old marketing trick)? You don't (I hope). Decimal points count.

Still, it's good that you went as far as you did to illustrate the point (sincerely, good job). That methodology helps win games. You just have to take it a little further.

[KittenOfDeath]

In a game based around a D6, decimal places are meaningless, if you charge 55 cents for a pack of gum I'll pay 55 cents, because its a decimal system, but if you charge 57 cents, I'll pay 60, because its a system that operates in increments of .05 of a dollar. You can not roll 2.72, its a physical imposibilty, it will never happen, so anything decimals dont matter in this situation.

When all numbers are rounded up or down as appropreate, its plays out as I described, with both characters falling over dead.

[Judge]

If that's the way you feel about it, Kitten, then round 1.48 wounds up to 1.5 wounds, and 1.5 wounds up to 2 wounds and Rockfist is dead. I know, you'd normally round that down, but you don't believe in decimals, so I'll do as I like. Rockfist dies Round 1. If you don't believe in decimals for shooting, either, then Rockfist takes one guaranteed wound from the Infernus Pistol, and goes down even harder in Round 1. You're discarding reality for a convenient fantasy, presumably because you can't keep up with "first grade mathematics." When people ask why I don't go into more detail, here's the answer.

[murrburger]

The decimal places are an abstract representation. Of course it's impossible to roll a 3.5 (The average roll on a six-sided die) This means that the average is between 3.0 and 4.0 (Which are actually sides on a die). Does this matter? Yes as I will explain.

Think of the game where I ask you to call High, or Low. The game involves rolling three six sided dice, then adding the results together. You have to call either High (a sum of 11 or more) or Low (a sum of 10 or less)

Let's say, you call High.

What are the odds of you being right? Well, it's 50/50.

3.5 (The average roll on a d6) x 3 (the number of dice) is 10.5.

What does this mean? The result of 11-18 (8 numbers) would be High, and the result of 10-3 (8 numbers) would be Low.

It's impossible to roll a 10.5, yes. But, the decimal is very important. It would be impossible to determine the probability of the game correctly if you rounded. If you round up to 11, then you would think that the High side has a higher chance of winning. If you round down to 10, you would think that the Low side has a higher chance of winning.

Neither is true, it's 50/50. 8 numbers against 8 numbers.

[KittenOfDeath]

First, infernus pistol? Try plasma pistol, second, kindergarten teaches decimals and rounding up/down, we were on way better stuff in first grade, and just so you know 1.48 gets rounded down to 1.

You're standing behind one bit of math, I'm behind another, we're both arguing that each others is irrelivent, I have clearly stated why i believe yours is, because the math has to work within a system that doesnt allow for decimal places, you however have just said no and and made refrences to diffrent systems which dont work as a comparison.

[Judge]

Good point - Plasma pistol, which has exactly the same practical effect against Rockfist. Hell, I should've had him fire it twice. That's two guaranteed wounds to you, so no need for close combat at all - Mephiston wins.

You're standing behind one bit of balogna. How do you express two thirds as a decimal? Do you know? Do you think 2/3 has any impact in the way hits are scored or wounds rolled? No, you don't know, or you wouldn't be arguing. Would you rather I break it down into percentages for you, to make it easy? You wouldn't trust me there, either, because you wouldn't understand what I was doing or how, but it's easy. Tell ya what, let's make it easy for you. We'll even round it for you, since you like that.

Assume nobody shoots.

Odds of Mephiston killing Rockfist in Round 1 taking no wounds himself. 50%
Odds of Mephiston killing Rockfist in Round 2 with at least one wound remaining. 25%
Odds of Mephiston killing Rockfist and being killed in return. 25%
Odds of Rockfist killing Mephiston without being killed in return. Negligible.

I apologize for coming across as rude. I'm quite frustrated that you haven't seen the point. To express accurate numbers the way you seem to desire would require a probability tree, with different simulations being run for every possible result, and percentages (quite calculable) being tallied at the end. This is a very time-consuming process, relatively speaking, with the same overall results. Your "bit of math" selects one probability branch at random, and doesn't even remotely acknowledge the bigger picture.

[BuFFo]

Archite (Agoniser, Pistol, Combat Drugs, Shadow Field. I'm assuming that the Archon chose +1 Attack, and re-roll misses for combat drugs.)
1/6 chance of an autowound against herself (16.667)
Archite charges and attacks 6 times at Initiative 8. ( Probability to hit: 0..5 + 0.25reroll = 0.75)
4.5 attacks will hit. (Wounds on 4+)
2.25 wounds (With no saves)
Mephiston has 2.75 wounds left.

Mephiston attempts transfixing gaze. (Yeah, I know it happens at the start of the round, but it doesn't matter)
Archite will fail: 83.33% of the time.

Assuming transfixing gaze works (Mephiston does not need to use any psychic powers)
Mephiston attacks 5 times at initiative 8. (Probability to hit: 0.666 + .222reroll = .888)
4.86 attacks will hit. (Wounds on a 2 with re-roll, also, Instant death)
5.8332 wounds (Probability to wound 0.8333 + 0.1388reroll = 0.9722)
4.72 wounds
Archite will save 0.8333 of the time due to Shadowfield.
0.972 unsaved wounds that cause instant death.
0.787 unsaved wounds that cause instant death (This is right for sure)

Some notes. I gave the Archite the charge, and I assumed Mephiston's Transfixing Gaze passed. If anyone
wants me to run the maths with Mephiston charging, or being forced to use psychic powers, or whatever, I guess I could. I don't think it would do much to help the Archite, though.

From what I can tell, the Arhcite is up **** creek without a paddle. Even with the Shadow Field, she's probably screwed. Keep in mind that these are averages, and that I did not decide to factor in the psychic powers. (No need to, if Transfixing Gaze works)

I didn't feel like giving any sort of win percentage, the averages are right there, and that's that.

I could go further, but it's late, and, hoping my math is right, the results are pretty clear.

Also, Mephiston is 250 points, and the Archite is about 100 points less.

What is Mephy's strength? I am not familiar with the codex. Because he could be effected by Wych Weapons if he isn't strong enough.


If Mephy is too strong to be affected by the Wych Weapons, then yeah, the 135 point Archite will get demolished by Mephy

The way I see it, if the Archite can pass it's Shadow Field saves for the first round of combat and go another round, Meph would die, and this is a realistic outcome. Then again I am sure Mephy has psychic powers you didn't use lol!!

[KittenOfDeath]

The decimal places are an abstract representation. Of course it's impossible to roll a 3.5 (The average roll on a six-sided die) This means that the average is between 3.0 and 4.0 (Which are actually sides on a die). Does this matter? Yes as I will explain.

Think of the game where I ask you to call High, or Low. The game involves rolling three six sided dice, then adding the results together. You have to call either High (a sum of 11 or more) or Low (a sum of 10 or less)

Let's say, you call High.

What are the odds of you being right? Well, it's 50/50.

3.5 (The average roll on a d6) x 3 (the number of dice) is 10.5.

What does this mean? The result of 11-18 (8 numbers) would be High, and the result of 10-3 (8 numbers) would be Low.

It's impossible to roll a 10.5, yes. But, the decimal is very important. It would be impossible to determine the probability of the game correctly if you rounded. If you round up to 11, then you would think that the High side has a higher chance of winning. If you round down to 10, you would think that the Low side has a higher chance of winning.

Neither is true, it's 50/50. 8 numbers against 8 numbers.

I understand how probibility works, 10.5 is the average roll in that if you roll it a few hundred times, added it together and divided it by the number of times rolled, you would come up with 10.5 (aproximately) to memory its called a aritmatic mean, however the probibility of rolling a 10.5 is zero.

When there is a preset and unalterable system, all calculations must be made to fit within it, which is why in this situation, the decimals mean nothing.


Good point - Plasma pistol, which has exactly the same practical effect against Rockfist. Hell, I should've had him fire it twice. That's two guaranteed wounds to you, so no need for close combat at all - Mephiston wins.

You're standing behind one bit of balogna. How do you express two thirds as a decimal? Do you know? Do you think 2/3 has any impact in the way hits are scored or wounds rolled? No, you don't know. Would you rather I break it down into percentages for you, to make it easy? You wouldn't trust me there, either, because you wouldn't understand what I was doing or how, but it's easy. Tell ya what, let's make it easy for you. We'll even round it for you, since you like that.

Assume nobody shoots.

Odds of Mephiston killing Rockfist in Round 1 taking no wounds himself. 50%
Odds of Mephiston killing Rockfist with at least one wound remaining. 25%
Odds of Mephiston killing Rockfist and being killed in return. 13%
Odds of Rockfist killing Mephiston without being killed in return. 12%

I do understand what you're doing, and how you're doing it, contrary to popular belief, not everyone on the interwebs in an idiot. To begin, if you shoot a plasma pistol twice, you would loose the charge, and its more than likely that neither would do anything. And 2/3 does have an impact one how wounds and hits are scored, take a power armor save, you roll a 6 sided dice, every roll of 3 or higher is a save, 1 and 2 is dead, 3,4,5 and 6 is alive, thats 2/3.

[murrburger]

What is Mephy's strength? I am not familiar with the codex. Because he could be effected by Wych Weapons if he isn't strong enough.


If Mephy is too strong to be affected by the Wych Weapons, then yeah, the 135 point Archite will get demolished by Mephy

The way I see it, if the Archite can pass it's Shadow Field saves for the first round of combat and go another round, Meph would die, and this is a realistic outcome.

Mephy is str 6, so he's too strong. (And instant kills the Archite). Definately not a fair fight, point for point. I sitll think Archon/Chites are one of the best CC monsters in the game.

[synack]

http://www.truckmodcentral.com/forums/images/smilies/popcorn.gif

[XHound87]

You guys are aware that pistols are effectively assault 1 weapons right? The rule where you could rapid fire a pistol was a fourth ed. rule.

[BuFFo]

Mephy is str 6, so he's too strong. (And instant kills the Archite). Definately not a fair fight, point for point. I sitll think Archon/Chites are one of the best CC monsters in the game.

I would go with the "To make it point for point, add in Incubi and Drazhar to even the score", but honestly, I really don't care. I would just dark lance Mephy into nothingness anyway.

[Judge]

Who cares about Rapid Fire, X? In crazy land, people can shoot for 10 rounds before assaults begin.

BuFFo, Good luck with the Dark Lances. It would take 9 shots.

Kitten, I amended my previous post with a slightly more detailed explanation, which you might gain from. I will explain the decimal system in slightly more detail. Please read all of the following before commenting (you can skip the table list once you see what it represents).

5 hits (1/2 odds of wounding) yields 2.5 wounds. This is to say there's a 50% chance of 0-2 wounds being done, and a 50% chance of 3-5 wounds being done.
4+ armor save means only 50% likelihood of wound or no wound, so 1.25 wounds.

More elaborately:

Odds of Rolling a 1 to wound and a 1 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 1 to wound and a 2 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 1 to wound and a 3 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 1 to wound and a 4 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 1 to wound and a 5 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 1 to wound and a 6 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 2 to wound and a 1 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 2 to wound and a 2 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 2 to wound and a 3 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 2 to wound and a 4 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 2 to wound and a 5 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 2 to wound and a 6 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 3 to wound and a 1 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 3 to wound and a 2 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 3 to wound and a 3 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 3 to wound and a 4 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 3 to wound and a 5 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 3 to wound and a 6 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 4 to wound and a 1 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 4 to wound and a 2 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 4 to wound and a 3 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 4 to wound and a 4 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 4 to wound and a 5 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 4 to wound and a 6 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 5 to wound and a 1 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 5 to wound and a 2 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 5 to wound and a 3 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 5 to wound and a 4 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 5 to wound and a 5 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 5 to wound and a 6 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 6 to wound and a 1 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 6 to wound and a 2 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 6 to wound and a 3 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 6 to wound and a 4 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 6 to wound and a 5 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 6 to wound and a 6 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36

Successful wounding rolls that bypassed armor would be represent by the following from the preceding list: 4 + 1, 4 + 2, 4 + 3, 5 + 1, 5 + 2, 5 + 3, 6 + 1, 6 + 2, 6 + 3.

9 options out of 36. 9 / 36 = .25

With 5 attacks, multiply the number of attacks by .25. 5*.25 = 1.25. The overall results are the same.

The decimals express averages, and for the purposes of illustration I've considered a greater than 50% odds of death enough to call a match (I spent some short time explaining this). What the decimals do not show well are extraordinary possibilities, such as a 6 to wound and a 1 to penetrate armour (the odds of which would be 1/36). For each extraordinary possibility, you create a seperate branch of the battle (if this, then the battle goes this way with X odds of it happening). If you want to stick with fractions, feel free to, but you're going to need a very large table when you add in to hit rolls and rerolls for all parties involved. (To hit rolls alone would yield 216 possibilities instead of 36).

Now, what you were doing wrong by any standards was rounding decimals and fractions more than once. .5 rounds up to 1. What of a .5 probability of a .5 probability, though? Round both to 1, and you get 1*1 = 1, a 100% chance of occurance. If you properly multiply .5*.5, you get .25, or a 25% chance of occurance. Do you agree that there's a big difference between a 100% chance and a 25% chance at least?

I don't believe you formerly understood what I was doing or why, or what you were doing or why. Do you have a better understanding now?

[murrburger]

I understand how probibility works, 10.5 is the average roll in that if you roll it a few hundred times, added it together and divided it by the number of times rolled, you would come up with 10.5 (aproximately) to memory its called a aritmatic mean, however the probibility of rolling a 10.5 is zero.

When there is a preset and unalterable system, all calculations must be made to fit within it, which is why in this situation, the decimals mean nothing.


If you understand, then why are you arguing? This is just theory, and is merely a way of comparison. How else can you compare anything in this game if you don't use averages?

Two veterans with plasma guns rapid-fire at a bunch Space Marines.
The Veterans have a BS of 4 (Hits on a 3+) On average, they will hit 2.666 times (I realise this is impossible)
Out of those 2.666 theoretical hits, 2.222 will theoretically wound. (Wounds on 2+)

Two veterans with lasguns rapid-fire at a bunch of Space Marines
The Veterans have a BS of 4 (Hits on a 3+) On average, they will hit 2.666 times
Out of those 2.666 hits, .889 wound (Wounds on 5+)
The Marine's 3+ save reduces the damage to .296 'wounds'

We can see that the Plasma Gun, on average, is more effective than the Lasgun. That's not to say that the lasguns may kill more. Hell, the lasguns could kill four marines, and the plasma guns could kill no marines.


The Plasma Gun will never kill 2.666 Marines. It's impossible.

The Lasgun will never kill .296 Marines. Also impossible.


However, this is the only way to determine which weapon is more effective against a Space Marine. Yes, these numbesr don't exist, and they will never appear on dice. Sometimes you have to work with numbers that don't/can't exist in the real world, especially to quantify something in a game involving chance.

So, I don't see the problem with using decimals. If you have something against it, that's fine. I'm just trying to explain my point of view.

[murrburger]

I would go with the "To make it point for point, add in Incubi and Drazhar to even the score", but honestly, I really don't care. I would just dark lance Mephy into nothingness anyway.

*thumbs up* The new codex will be bittersweet. I bet I'll miss the awesome sweet spot DE are stuck in.

[BuFFo]

BuFFo, Good luck with the Dark Lances. It would take 9 shots.

You do know in a 1000 point list I can field 18 dark lances in a REGULAR de build, right?

In the 'Ard Boyz, my DE list has 36 Dark Lance type weapons in it, only because I run out of Troop and Heavy slots at 1500 points, and am forced to take bloated Wych and HQ squads to make up the last 1000 points lol.

Mephy is not a problem at all to me, even in close comabt :P

So while new edition codices seem to have a problem with Mephy, a 12 year old book still proves to be on top.

Commorragh Bless 10 point Dark lances :)

[addamsfamily36]

Mephy is not a problem at all to me, even in close comabt :P

Reasons why you have no problem?


You do know in a 1000 point list I can field 18 dark lances in a REGULAR de build, right?

In the 'Ard Boyz, my DE list has 36 Dark Lance type weapons in it, only because I run out of Troop and Heavy slots at 1500 points, and am forced to take bloated Wych and HQ squads to make up the last 1000 points lol.


Likely hood that every dark lance would be able to hoot at him would be 0 (unless hes all thats left and there isnt a single piece of terrain on the table)

also if you wish to spend that amount of fire power on one model then go for it. But when a deepstriking flamer toting army arrives on your doorstep along with several baal class predators, your troop carrying dark lances units will be going :eek:

[KittenOfDeath]

Who cares about Rapid Fire, X? In crazy land, people can shoot for 10 rounds before assaults begin.

BuFFo, Good luck with the Dark Lances. It would take 9 shots.

Kitten, I amended my previous post with a slightly more detailed explanation, which you might gain from. I will explain the decimal system in slightly more detail. Please read all of the following before commenting (you can skip the table list once you see what it represents).

5 hits (1/2 odds of wounding) yields 2.5 wounds. This is to say there's a 50% chance of 0-2 wounds being done, and a 50% chance of 3-5 wounds being done.
4+ armor save means only 50% likelihood of wound or no wound, so 1.25 wounds.

More elaborately:

Odds of Rolling a 1 to wound and a 1 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 1 to wound and a 2 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 1 to wound and a 3 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 1 to wound and a 4 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 1 to wound and a 5 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 1 to wound and a 6 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 2 to wound and a 1 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 2 to wound and a 2 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 2 to wound and a 3 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 2 to wound and a 4 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 2 to wound and a 5 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 2 to wound and a 6 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 3 to wound and a 1 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 3 to wound and a 2 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 3 to wound and a 3 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 3 to wound and a 4 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 3 to wound and a 5 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 3 to wound and a 6 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 4 to wound and a 1 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 4 to wound and a 2 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 4 to wound and a 3 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 4 to wound and a 4 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 4 to wound and a 5 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 4 to wound and a 6 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 5 to wound and a 1 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 5 to wound and a 2 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 5 to wound and a 3 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 5 to wound and a 4 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 5 to wound and a 5 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 5 to wound and a 6 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 6 to wound and a 1 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 6 to wound and a 2 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 6 to wound and a 3 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 6 to wound and a 4 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 6 to wound and a 5 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
Odds of Rolling a 6 to wound and a 6 to save = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36

Successful wounding rolls that bypassed armor would be represent by the following from the preceding list: 4 + 1, 4 + 2, 4 + 3, 5 + 1, 5 + 2, 5 + 3, 6 + 1, 6 + 2, 6 + 3.

9 options out of 36. 9 / 36 = .25

With 5 attacks, multiply the number of attacks by .25. 5*.25 = 1.25. The overall results are the same.

The decimals express averages, and for the purposes of illustration I've considered a greater than 50% odds of death enough to call a match (I spent some short time explaining this). What the decimals do not show well are extraordinary possibilities, such as a 6 to wound and a 1 to penetrate armour (the odds of which would be 1/36). For each extraordinary possibility, you create a seperate branch of the battle (if this, then the battle goes this way with X odds of it happening). If you want to stick with fractions, feel free to, but you're going to need a very large table when you add in to hit rolls and rerolls for all parties involved. (To hit rolls alone would yield 216 possibilities instead of 36).

Now, what you were doing wrong by any standards was rounding decimals and fractions more than once. .5 rounds up to 1. What of a .5 probability of a .5 probability, though? Round both to 1, and you get 1*1 = 1, a 100% chance of occurance. If you properly multiply .5*.5, you get .25, or a 25% chance of occurance. Do you agree that there's a big difference between a 100% chance and a 25% chance at least?

I don't believe you formerly understood what I was doing or why, or what you were doing or why. Do you have a better understanding now?

Seriously, I do understand your math, at no point have I said it was wrong, you can stop showing me numbers, What I'm trying to argue here is the validity of using your method within a system that doesnt support anything less than a whole number, I have understood everything you have done and why you have done it, I simply disagree with the latter.

And I didnt round things up twice, only once.


If you understand, then why are you arguing? This is just theory, and is merely a way of comparison. How else can you compare anything in this game if you don't use averages?

Two veterans with plasma guns rapid-fire at a bunch Space Marines.
The Veterans have a BS of 4 (Hits on a 3+) On average, they will hit 2.666 times (I realise this is impossible)
Out of those 2.666 theoretical hits, 2.222 will theoretically wound. (Wounds on 2+)

Two veterans with lasguns rapid-fire at a bunch of Space Marines
The Veterans have a BS of 4 (Hits on a 3+) On average, they will hit 2.666 times
Out of those 2.666 hits, .889 wound (Wounds on 5+)
The Marine's 3+ save reduces the damage to .296 'wounds'

We can see that the Plasma Gun, on average, is more effective than the Lasgun. That's not to say that the lasguns may kill more. Hell, the lasguns could kill four marines, and the plasma guns could kill no marines.


The Plasma Gun will never kill 2.666 Marines. It's impossible.

The Lasgun will never kill .296 Marines. Also impossible.


However, this is the only way to determine which weapon is more effective against a Space Marine. Yes, these numbesr don't exist, and they will never appear on dice. Sometimes you have to work with numbers that don't/can't exist in the real world, especially to quantify something in a game involving chance.

So, I don't see the problem with using decimals. If you have something against it, that's fine. I'm just trying to explain my point of view.

I argue because I disagre, not because I dont understand, on average, the plasma gunners will not kill 2.6 marines, like you yourself said, it cant be done, the plasma gunners will infact, kill 3 marines, just as the lasgunners will kill none.

I do however agree that the methods you have used are completely valid and correct for finding probable outcomes, I just believe there should be a final step that you've left out, rounding the final results up and down so as to fit in with the D6 system

[Judge]

I remember early on in 3rd edition when I was all eager to make the most out of every Dark Lance I could possibly field (120 points per Warrior squad got 10 Warriors and 2 Dark Lances, and 50 or 55 points got a Raider with a Dark Lance). I ran a simulated army (few replacement Eldar models as I didn't have enough DE) with the most Dark Lances possible led by Asdrubal Vect against a friend who fielded 3rd edition Ordnance-mad Imperial Guard. I can't even begin to describe the slaughter, and it all happened to me. He got the initiative, and his tanks chewed through mine like used gum. Nearly half my army died in the first shooting round. At the time, though, Ordnance was completely borked crazy overpowered (IG got tons and Eldar didn't get any). Note that I did NOT run a mathematical simulation beforehand.

Kitten, you really, really don't understand, or I wouldn't have to tell you why and how I'm not leaving anything out. If I say Abaddon likely has 0.24 wounds left, and call him dead, that means there's just under a 76% probability that he's dead with 0 wounds left, with a just over 24% probability that he's alive with at least 1 (probably only 1) wound. If Meph doesn't have an available psychic reroll (uses all three powers), then the odds slip a little more to something like a 73% chance Abaddon's dead. I could post a +/- X% standard deviation, but I haven't bothered to calculate one, since it really is a minor issue. I'm not looking for 100% here, as more or less stated in the main post. I'm taking anything over 50%, even 51%, since even little numbers add up. Could be 51% chance Meph wins, could be 99%. Showing how badass Meph is only accounts for 1/3 of the point of the post.

Over the course of several games you CAN in fact kill off 2.6 marines with total shots/number of games with total dead marines/number of games.

[BuFFo]

Reasons why you have no problem?

This is a hypothetical thread with hypothetical situations.

Because I would just tie him up with a Wych Squad, which is what they do, for the entire game.

Remember, hypothetical.


Likely hood that every dark lance would be able to hoot at him would be 0 (unless hes all thats left and there isnt a single piece of terrain on the table)

First off, I never said all weapons could reach him.

Second, actually yes, after playing DE for 12 years, and knowing how to play the army, Mephy would be within range of most of my Dark Lances. The second he gets close to my lines, he is dead. That is a Dark Lance fact lol.


also if you wish to spend that amount of fire power on one model then go for it.

Absolutely. I am perfectly fine with that.


But when a deepstriking flamer toting army arrives on your doorstep along with several baal class predators, your troop carrying dark lances units will be going :eek:

You are right, hypotheically a deep striking Flamer army would cause me trouble.. Actually, no it woudln't, not at all.

I don't think I have ever, in 22 years of paying 40k, ever faced a fully deep striking flaming army.

Hypothetically if I were to face the one guy on the planet that owns an army with nothing but flamers, and all his units do not scatter, and every template could cover my units (which happen to NOT be inside Raiders) they yeah that army could cause problems.

Thing is, my "hypothetical" dark Lance scenario is very real.



I remember early on in 3rd edition when I was all eager to make the most out of every Dark Lance I could possibly field (120 points per Warrior squad got 10 Warriors and 2 Dark Lances, and 50 or 55 points got a Raider with a Dark Lance). I ran a simulated army (few replacement Eldar models as I didn't have enough DE) with the most Dark Lances possible led by Asdrubal Vect against a friend who fielded 3rd edition Ordnance-mad Imperial Guard. I can't even begin to describe the slaughter, and it all happened to me. He got the initiative, and his tanks chewed through mine like used gum. Nearly half my army died in the first shooting round. At the time, though, Ordnance was completely borked crazy overpowered (IG got tons and Eldar didn't get any). Note that I did NOT run a mathematical simulation beforehand.

I know you didn't just compare something that happened to you in 3rd edition, and try to say that because of your one inexperienced simulated game with Dark Eldar that this somehow invalidates anything I said.

But hey, kudos for trying!

Don't get me wrong, I bow down for you in taking your time to do all the stuff you do in this thread, but face the fact that is present in this thread; Close Combat kills, but Shooting is far more deadlier in 40k

If this was 4th edition where the game was all about close combat, yeah, Mephy would be a problem, but I don't see him being much of a problem in 5th edition.

Like I said to my friend who brings his Swarm Lord w/ guard all the time, and ends up having it dead in turn one or two against me DE.... Keep wasting your time, bub.

But hey, what do I know. :p :p

[DarkLink]

First off, I never said all weapons could reach him.

Second, actually yes, after playing DE for 12 years, and knowing how to play the army, Mephy would be within range of most of my Dark Lances. The second he gets close to my lines, he is dead. That is a Dark Lance fact lol.


I have to agree. For every story I've heard about Mephiston killing stuff in actual games, I've heard about him getting shot to death. Just like a competent player can do a good job of keeping him hidden, a good player can do a good job of getting a bead on him.

[BuFFo]

Yeah, don't get me wrong, I am not trying to say that this topic is bunk, or Mephy isn't strong. That isn't it at all.

All I am saying is, that people need to understand that as much as Meph looks like a killing machine, probably the best in the game, he suffers from what the Necron C'tan have - Deadly on paper, but easy to shoot to death, and thus over hyped, and in a few months forgotten.

[addamsfamily36]

Yeah, don't get me wrong, I am not trying to say that this topic is bunk, or Mephy isn't strong. That isn't it at all.

All I am saying is, that people need to understand that as much as Meph looks like a killing machine, probably the best in the game, he suffers from what the Necron C'tan have - Deadly on paper, but easy to shoot to death, and thus over hyped, and in a few months forgotten.

i totally agree that he can be killed from shooting, and many other ways too. my argument about beign able to shoot every/most of your dark lances at him though i think is still valid. Mephiston is only a small marine sized model, placed next to or behind another unit/tank/piece of terrain and its almost an impossibilty to get all your dark lances on that one model from LOS purposes. And then if you can he is mroe than likely going to benifit from a cover save.

As for Playing dark eldar for 12 years i don't doubt your skill, but he's guaranteed to be in combat by turn two, presuming the BA player went first you would have to kill him within a turn. Which yes very easily done, but i think he would have served a great purpose of keeping firepower away from the rest of the army which can now tote a large number of flamers and meltas.

[DarkLink]

As for Playing dark eldar for 12 years i don't doubt your skill, but he's guaranteed to be in combat by turn two, presuming the BA player went first you would have to kill him within a turn. Which yes very easily done, but i think he would have served a great purpose of keeping firepower away from the rest of the army which can now tote a large number of flamers and meltas.

Well, if there's one thing that DE have, it is crazy speed. Mephiston is fast, but DE are faster.So if we're going to talk hypothetical, it could just as easily be more like this: If Mephiston is in combat by turn 2, it is probably because he is either tied up on purpose by the DE player, or he assaulted, say, a cheap raider squad that was either shot down or left as bait. In which case he'll win combat, then be left in the open, to be shot to death after only killing a ~100pt squad.

And if there's another thing that DE have, it's lots of AP2. Lots of it. DE can put out a ton of damage very quickly, much more than even Mephiston can take under most circumstances. Sure, he'll draw a lot of fire, but he might not be able to draw enough to make up for his extreme cost.

[BuFFo]

i totally agree that he can be killed from shooting, and many other ways too. my argument about beign able to shoot every/most of your dark lances at him though i think is still valid.

Okay, you may not understand a Dark Eldar army, not many people do.

We have soo many anti tank weaponry it is ridiculous, and it is for this very reason, priority targeting, we have so many guns.

Mephy is on foot, I will ignore him the whole game, and instead shoot at your transports, troop units, etc first. You make it sound that, like a robot without a brain, on turn 1 I will shoot a Mephy at the cost of losing the game. Not going to happen.

So your argument is valid against a Dark Eldar noob who doesn't know how to prioritize for the mission, but not a skilled DE player.

Mephy will die when I decide he does. Welcome to the world of Dark Eldar Mon'kea!



Mephiston is only a small marine sized model, placed next to or behind another unit/tank/piece of terrain and its almost an impossibilty to get all your dark lances on that one model from LOS purposes. And then if you can he is mroe than likely going to benifit from a cover save.

Agreed. He can stay hidden the whole game as far as I care, as long as I can molest your troop choices with my weapons.


As for Playing dark eldar for 12 years i don't doubt your skill, but he's guaranteed to be in combat by turn two, presuming the BA player went first you would have to kill him within a turn. Which yes very easily done, but i think he would have served a great purpose of keeping firepower away from the rest of the army which can now tote a large number of flamers and meltas.

Why thank you :)

As Darklink said, as a Dark Eldar player, I ALWAYS choose when I want to initiate close combat. My close combat units have a possible 30" charge range. Only if Meph is sitting on an object, behind a LOS blocking piece of terrain, will my BA opponent EVER dictate when and where I charge.

I have not had my CC units ever flamed before combat. I am sure some termies have DS and flamed my warriors before, but not my CC units. The only time they get flamed is AFTER combat when they stand still in the open. Not much I can do about that. lol.

Burn DE burn!! lol :eek:

[addamsfamily36]

Okay, you may not understand a Dark Eldar army, not many people do.

We have soo many anti tank weaponry it is ridiculous, and it is for this very reason, priority targeting, we have so many guns.

Oh how i know how much fire power a dark eldar army can field, at a fraction of the cost to other armies.:D



Why thank you

As Darklink said, as a Dark Eldar player, I ALWAYS choose when I want to initiate close combat. My close combat units have a possible 30" charge range. Only if Meph is sitting on an object, behind a LOS blocking piece of terrain, will my BA opponent EVER dictate when and where I charge.

I have not had my CC units ever flamed before combat. I am sure some termies have DS and flamed my warriors before, but not my CC units. The only time they get flamed is AFTER combat when they stand still in the open. Not much I can do about that. lol.

Burn DE burn!! lol


Burn DE burn lol love it :)

as for the 30 inch charge range..? if you turbo boost you cant disembark can you? jsut curious as unsure how this can be done.


I would love to play you. Dark eldar are one of my most regular opponents so i might not fully understand playign with them, but i sure know how to play against them :D

[Judge]

So much anti-tank weaponry mounted on vehicles that were Open Topped. A sneeze could knock a Raider over. Worse, while Dark Lances could (and can) kill a number of Marines per round, splinter rifles did (and do) nothing, and bolters chewed (and chew) through DE like they're tissue paper. Sometimes, I'd actually catch Dark Eldar players picking up a squad of witches and handing them to an opposing player so he could wipe his nose from knocking over all of the Dark Eldar tanks. Maybe you should try them in new 5th edition hand to hand. Oh wait.... Ah, how cheap Dark Eldar armies were on Ebay for the first three years after they came out, since many people bought one, but most didn't want to keep them! Must be the skill required. Pfft.

(Sorry, I can't help tweaking clown noses - they're bright and red!) Seriously though, I'm also rather curious about the potential 30" charge range (are they fleeting in there somewhere?), so please expound. Check it, though; given the new vehicle damage tables, only 1/3 penetrating hits destroy - glancing don't against normal vehicles (open topped, anyone?). Only 1/3 Dark Lance hits penetrate unless the target's armor is naturally under 12. Only 2/3 Dark Lance shots hit with Dark Eldar Ballistic Skill. It takes 13 to 14 shots from a Dark Lance to kill a tank these days, and Blood Angel tanks especially are fairly cheap and reap. Sure, it's as likely to kill a Land Raider as a Dreadnaught or Baal Predator, but given that, which do you think a Marine player's more likely to field?

Also, Space Marine Rocket Launchers, which have area effect potential, are now only 10 points as well.

Please keep in mind that this is not a "hypothetical" thread. This is a "probabilities" thread, difference being that "hypothetical" consists of any likely (or unlikely) scenario you choose to pull out of your butt, and "probable" consists of averages. BuFFo, you can make any claim you want for fun, but your claims are entirely unbelievable hot air unless you back them up. I don't have anything against hot air, as that seems to be 2/3rds of the fun in Warhammer, but it is what it is. For the record, I don't have any vested interest in proving that Meph is strong, since I haven't cared for Blood Angels since 2nd edition. I'd much rather Nightbringer stomped him and smeared his corpse across a wall. It just seems (and has been proven to be) remarkably unlikely that would be the case. It is what it is.

Dark, "I heard" is not a widely recognized legitimate source. Please elaborate.

[synack]

They're not working out how many hits/wounds/etc he does in one fight. They are working out how many he does over MANY fights.

In one fight, you can not do 2.66 wounds.

But in average over 20 games, you can do 2.66 wounds per game.

So now you knowing going into the game, you going to average 2.66 wounds in this game coming up. So in that case you can say, in this game, I'm going to do 2-3 wounds.

[Necrosis]

Burn DE burn lol love it :)

as for the 30 inch charge range..? if you turbo boost you cant disembark can you? jsut curious as unsure how this can be done.


Move 12 with a raider, disembark 2, fleet for another d6. Assault 12 due to combat drugs.

[BuFFo]

Move 12 with a raider, disembark 2, fleet for another d6. Assault 12 due to combat drugs.

You are right, but let me help you a bit :P

Move 12 with raider and have it's final position be sideways to your target.

Pivot raider for extra 2".

Disembark "within" 2", which means that your Disembark is actually 2.9 inches (we'll call that three lol)

Fleet D6, we'll say 3" in this case.

Assault 12" due to combat drugs.

That is 32" on average with combat drugs, and 26" average without combat drugs.

:D :p

[addamsfamily36]

You are right, but let me help you a bit :P

Move 12 with raider and have it's final position be sideways to your target.

Pivot raider for extra 2".

Disembark "within" 2", which means that your Disembark is actually 2.9 inches (we'll call that three lol)

Fleet D6, we'll say 3" in this case.

Assault 12" due to combat drugs.

That is 32" on average with combat drugs, and 26" average without combat drugs.

cheers, thankyou for explanation but i got some poitns to add:

Pivot raider an extra 2"? sorry once you have turned sideways onto your target your not going to get a further 2 inchs out of it, u pivot from the middle any more and ure moving over 12.

i personally disagree with the Within 2 inches "cheat" that people employ. say for example you was within a box, you would be inside it u wudnt be on the outside of that box, to me to be within two inches is to be inside a 2inch semi circle from the side of the vehicle your are disembarkign from.



combat drugs can't they wound/kill you?

[Necrosis]

cheers, thankyou for explanation but i got some poitns to add:

Pivot raider an extra 2"? sorry once you have turned sideways onto your target your not going to get a further 2 inchs out of it, u pivot from the middle any more and ure moving over 12.

i personally disagree with the Within 2 inches "cheat" that people employ. say for example you was within a box, you would be inside it u wudnt be on the outside of that box, to me to be within two inches is to be inside a 2inch semi circle from the side of the vehicle your are disembarkign from.



combat drugs can't they wound/kill you?

How would combat drugs kill you? Unless your using a character.

Weather you personally disagree with the 2 inch disembark or not, they are still going to do it. It's an open top vehicle which means i can disembark anywhere within 2 inches of the vehicle and I only need to get one model in base to base contact in order to charge.

As for killing mephiston, lets put him against 3 squad of wyches who all have succubus with an agnoiser. This would come to about 279 points making them 29 points more expensive. To be fair we will say no one charged since they both can get into combat easily. Mephiston goes first and triggers his ability so he rerolls all hits and wounds. He gets 4 attacks (wych weapons do negate an attack but since he is S6 his ws is not rounded down). His 4 attacks will do about 3 wounds which will kill about 1.5 wyches, lets be nice and round up to 2. 9 attacks back from the succubi, 4.5 hits, 2.25 wounds. So tied combat. In round of combat mephiston will do the same thing and the wyches will do the same thing. Which will result in a mephiston having 1 wound remaining and killing another 2 wyches. In the next round mephiston will kill of the first squad but will be killed off by the other two squads. Now, that being said, I didn't give the wyches combat drugs nor did I calculate the normal wyches attacks. And for 5 points each I can give two wyches per squads blasters which in shooting hits on 3's and wounds 2's and is ap2.

[Judge]

So DE can assault in the same turn they run because of Fleet (5th edition Fleet rules). How are they assaulting after disembarking? Do Raiders have Assault ramps? (Under normal 5th edition rules, units may shoot after disembarking from a moving vehicle, but may not assault).

Also, on the issue of pivoting, since access ramps for Raiders are on the side (they are on the side, aren't they? Not the front?), the Raiders would have to be turned sideways at the beginning *and* end of the movement phase (beginning to allow them to get the assault ramps to the edge of movement range, as vehicles can pivot at the beginning and end of moving, but pivoting wouldn't put the whole vehicle at the full 12" movement edge unless it started that way. In the case of the Raider, even with the 2" disembarking range, you'd lose about 1").

[Necrosis]

So DE can assault in the same turn they run because of Fleet (5th edition Fleet rules). How are they assaulting after disembarking? Do Raiders have Assault ramps? (Under normal 5th edition rules, units may shoot after disembarking from a moving vehicle, but may not assault).

Cause their vehicles are open topped.

[Judge]

Thanks.

[addamsfamily36]

well i would hope there was a character if there going up against mephiston for hand to hand, becaue although the rest of the dark eldar can back some very nice wargear on their unit champions etc, i think they might need a bit more than that unless they absolutely swamp him.

As for the two inch disembark rule, i havent got my rulebook to hand, i would be interested to look at the disembark radius. from a hatch or door (like on a rhino) im pretty sure ive seen a diagram with a disembarkment arc. for open topped vehicles the only difference would be you could disembark from any point on the vehicle.

[BuFFo]

cheers, thankyou for explanation but i got some poitns to add:

Pivot raider an extra 2"? sorry once you have turned sideways onto your target your not going to get a further 2 inchs out of it, u pivot from the middle any more and ure moving over 12.

You can pivot as many times as you wish during your vehicle's movement. And since Raiders are Rectangles, and not squares like Rhinos, we get an extra 2". :eek:


Also, on the issue of pivoting, since access ramps for Raiders are on the side (they are on the side, aren't they? Not the front?), the Raiders would have to be turned sideways at the beginning *and* end of the movement phase (beginning to allow them to get the assault ramps to the edge of movement range, as vehicles can pivot at the beginning and end of moving, but pivoting wouldn't put the whole vehicle at the full 12" movement edge unless it started that way. In the case of the Raider, even with the 2" disembarking range, you'd lose about 1").

Here, let me show you how to move a raider.

Grab the raider, and measure 12". At any point during the movement, pivote the raider to it's side. Arrive at the 12" mark. Pivot the raider back to facing your opponent.

I am not going to get into the 'ethics' of moving a vehicles sideways becausesimply put, the rules allow it, and I am not going to argue on that point.

If you want to get fluffy about, Raiders are skimmers with anti grave engines. Moving sideways isn't a problem for such a futuristic vehicle.

Either way, DE Raiders move 12", but with a smart pivot, you end up being 2" further.

[DarkLink]

You can pivot as many times as you wish during your vehicle's movement. And since Raiders are Rectangles, and not squares like Rhinos, we get an extra 2". :eek:


Reading over the rules for vehicle movement, the BRB indeed does not seem specify that the maximum displacement of the vehicle must be completely within the movement range of the vehicle. Pivoting is specified to be about the center points, so due to the way the rules are worded you could indeed move 12", pivot, and end up with a point on the vehicle that is more than 12" away from the point of origin. Poor wording on GW's part.

To argue against this, though, one could state that since the vehicle "may pivot during movement", that the pivoting counts towards the 12" of movement vehicle are allowed, meaning that no point on the vehicle at the end of the movement can be more than 12" away from any point on the vehicle at the beginning of its movement.

Unfortunately, GW is not nearly as clear in its language as Privateer Press is. Warmachine rules are very precise about this sort of thing, leaving little room for any misconception.


Edit: oh, and Raiders don't have access points. Passengers may disembark from any part of the vehicle. Part of being open topped.

[Judge]

Seems apparently irrelevant for the charge issue since Raiders are open topped.

As for the pivot argument, you're demonstrably incorrect because you're violating the movement maximum in the movement phase. Common sense doesn't need to enter into it because you're moving 15" in a 12" move, aka violating movement rules. How do you presume to get a model's side facing the farmost point when pivoting from the center, as per the rules? You would have to pivot from an end point, which the rules don't allow.

Similarly, it would be a violation to pull a Defiler's arms in all the way to begin movement, and stretch them all out at the end. There's no rule that says that models may not "mutate" in movement, but it does violate the (in the Defiler's case) 6" movement allotment. A Warlord Titan similarly may not stretch out its arm to gain charge distance (in that case, about 15" of additional charge distance), as it violates the stated limits for movement.

"Well, the rules don't state I can't violate the rules in a specific way." This is because you're not to violate the rules at all.

Perhaps most important of all is that fact that while direct violence against an opposing player is discouraged by inferred request in 40k, there's no direct rule against it. As such, anyone who punches you in the face wins.

[DarkLink]

because you're moving 15" in a 12" move, aka violating movement rules.

I have to agree. Though GW could have been more clear about this.

[addamsfamily36]

You can pivot as many times as you wish during your vehicle's movement. And since Raiders are Rectangles, and not squares like Rhinos, we get an extra 2".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Judge
Also, on the issue of pivoting, since access ramps for Raiders are on the side (they are on the side, aren't they? Not the front?), the Raiders would have to be turned sideways at the beginning *and* end of the movement phase (beginning to allow them to get the assault ramps to the edge of movement range, as vehicles can pivot at the beginning and end of moving, but pivoting wouldn't put the whole vehicle at the full 12" movement edge unless it started that way. In the case of the Raider, even with the 2" disembarking range, you'd lose about 1").
Here, let me show you how to move a raider.

Grab the raider, and measure 12". At any point during the movement, pivote the raider to it's side. Arrive at the 12" mark. Pivot the raider back to facing your opponent.

I am not going to get into the 'ethics' of moving a vehicles sideways becausesimply put, the rules allow it, and I am not going to argue on that point.

If you want to get fluffy about, Raiders are skimmers with anti grave engines. Moving sideways isn't a problem for such a futuristic vehicle.

Either way, DE Raiders move 12", but with a smart pivot, you end up being 2" further.


There is so much wrong with this i have drawn a diagram for your benefit:

http://www.lounge.belloflostsouls.net/photopost/data/638/medium/DELDAR_RAIDER.jpg



Situation A: you want to move your raider 12 inches straight forward. you pick a point on your tank (in this case the very front) you then measure twelve inches and then move said tank so that the same point (the front of the tank , is placed at the end of the tap measure or 12 inch mark depending on which way round your holding the measure)

Situation B: exactly the same except using a central point on the tank, you measure from this point and too this point.


Situation C: This is where you wish to pivot your tank. In this diagram i have included Situation A to show how you in-fact gain nothing by your technique of pivoting during the move and then returning to facing forward. heres a break down:

If you choose to pivot your raider, you lose two inches as your width is shorter than your length and you measure in the direction your traveling so from the side of the raider you move twelve forward then pivot back to facing forward re-gaining that two or so inches. so thats -2 (to start your move) +plus 12 during the move and then +2 from the pivot giving you a total of 12.

The same applies if you start your move say forward 6, then pivot, then sideways 6 then pivot again, because by pivoting you reduce the length of your vehicle.

[Wolfshade]

There are a couple of points which I am sure everyone is totally aware of, but I thought I would say or remind people of.

Firstly, this is math or theory hammer so we can use decimals (or fractions) as it is an abstract situation (or an average of infinite actual situations).

Secondly, in an actual game scenario there are as pointed out no decimal dots on dice (unless you be cheating!) there are also no average results so all the theory hammer is great to show what *should* happen but doesn't mean that it will happen. In theory my 5 terminator assault squad with TH & SS should not be broken by a 10 man IG squad, but it does happen, or at least has.

Consequently when we have this arena of death scenarios (WD ran one ages ago which I believe a Bloodthirster won) there are always going to be assumptions made to represent an average occurance that people are not happy with which could really affect the game

For ancedotal sake, I don't run with Mephiston usually as I find that although awesome on paper he is too expensive for the size of games I play and attaracts way too much fire power. For a few more points (35 ish IIRC) I can have a 10 man assault squad (melta bombs, power sword) with Sanguinary Priest (w/ JP), and while they can't take on a wraithlord as effectively they can hold objectives and effectively assault "normal" troops. But then you use synergy to take out what can't be assaulted like dropping land raiders (which also act as cool walls).

Sorry, I digress, these are nice abstract scenarios to give an idea of what you should expect in terms of raw ability and don't take into account army composition and tactics/strategy and to put too many faith points in them would be unrealistic. But I don't believe that that was Judge's intention but that's just an assumption which might be wrong ;)

[BuFFo]

There is so much wrong with this i have drawn a diagram for your benefit:

I don't know what you are trying to prove here, but your diagram assumes you must pivot before you move your vehicle, and this is not true.


You move the vehicle 3" normally, then you pivot, then you slide your vehicle the rest of the 9", then you pivot back into position.

The rules allow for it;

1) Moving a vehicle has NO such rule that you must 'drive' forward. You can slide your vehicle sideways like it is on ice if you wish.

2) You can pivot as much as you wish during movement. This is not limited to the start or the end of movement.

The case about a vehicle moving 12" regardless of pivoting is moot. The vehicle DID move 12". Now, Pivoting is not moving, as per the rules, when it comes to moving the vehicle. Pivoting is Pivoting. Pivoting does NOT move the vehicle any further.

And being a Raider is open topped, my Wyches can disembark 2.9" from the very tip, so there is a couple inches gained due to the fact the vehicle is a rectangle.

BUT ANYWAY

Everyone here has shown their case, and we are just going to get circular here. If anyone wishes to make a NEW thread on this topic, please do so! This thread got derailed enough as it is.

Mephy beats entire armies, gotchya. Let's get back to that :D :D

[addamsfamily36]

I don't know what you are trying to prove here, but your diagram assumes you must pivot before you move your vehicle, and this is not true.


You move the vehicle 3" normally, then you pivot, then you slide your vehicle the rest of the 9", then you pivot back into position.

The rules allow for it;

1) Moving a vehicle has NO such rule that you must 'drive' forward. You can slide your vehicle sideways like it is on ice if you wish.

2) You can pivot as much as you wish during movement. This is not limited to the start or the end of movement.

The case about a vehicle moving 12" regardless of pivoting is moot. The vehicle DID move 12". Now, Pivoting is not moving, as per the rules, when it comes to moving the vehicle. Pivoting is Pivoting. Pivoting does NOT move the vehicle any further.


If you had read my post FULLY you would have seen that i stated
The same applies if you start your move say forward 6, then pivot, then sideways 6 then pivot again, because by pivoting you reduce the length of your vehicle.


Yes you can move sideways as if on ice, but you still measure from a set point for the whole move.

for example:

Say i was to place a small circle sticker on a raider in the very centre of the model. I move forward 3 from this point, pivot, move forward(or slide sideways) another 9, and then pivot back, that dot/sticker has only moved 12, no more no less. you have gained nothing. which is clearly shown in the diagram. If you wish too, draw a diagram of your way of doing it because i would love to see how your apparently gaining extra ground from pivoting.


the fact the vehicle is a rectangle.

looks more triangular to me:confused:


Everyone here has shown their case, and we are just going to get circular here. If anyone wishes to make a NEW thread on this topic, please do so! This thread got derailed enough as it is.

I apologise to Judge for steering this thread off topic even further, but for now he seems quite happy to talk about your claims on Moving raiders.

[BuFFo]

Yes you can move sideways as if on ice, but you still measure from a set point for the whole move.

Hmmmm, interesting... I'll have to dote on this for a bit.

- edit -

I have done some doting, and I see now what some of you mean.

Well, I will no longer be using the Pivot move in my games. Thanks guys for helping me out here.

I guess I'll have to deal with a 30" charge range instead of 32".

How ever will I cope? :p :p :p

P.S. Mephy is still no threat at all to DE....

[Judge]

Who needs Meph when a good stiff wind could knock them over?

Wolf, if you want to know the point of the thread, please read the original post in the thread. If you want to read a rebuttal to the "no decimal points on d6s" argument, please view the previous page. Mathhammers work. This is why some people pay three times the value of their houses in mortgage and more, and why some people (i.e. bankers) get to sell you a home for three times what they paid for it.

[DarkLink]

Right, mathhammer is really just some simple statistics. It is a quick, efficient way of telling you where to place your money in any given situation.

Now, if someone was really dedicated they could actually calculate the odds of everything happening, using statistical distributions and the like. For example, you could figure out "Abbaddon has a 45%* chance of killing Mephiston."

However, doing that is rather time consuming and significantly more complex than calculating the average result. So we just calculate the average result, because that gives us everything we need to know.

See, the funny thing about statistical averages is that, despite what a lot of people seem to think, they really are your best bet. If you crunch the numbers and see that a unit of 10 THSS terminators will cause 15* wounds on a guardsman squad on average, and the guardsmen will only cause .1* back, then you can safely bet that you will win that combat.

Can different things happen? Yeah. The guardsmen could somehow kill all of the terminators before they strike. But the odds of that are extremely low.

In short, don't plan for luck**, because you will be disappointed most of the time. Plan for averages, and in the long run you will come out ahead. And if you don't think it works, then go ask casinos how they make their money.




*I completely made up all these numbers off the top of my head.


**Unless you're feeling like making something random happen. For pure fun, you can just do whatever you want. But a plan based on luck is a poor plan.

[BuFFo]

Sorry, I digress, these are nice abstract scenarios to give an idea of what you should expect in terms of raw ability and don't take into account army composition and tactics/strategy and to put too many faith points in them would be unrealistic. But I don't believe that that was Judge's intention but that's just an assumption which might be wrong ;)

You sir, speak the truth.

[Judge]

that's just an assumption which might be wrong


You sir, speak the truth.

Something about this struck me as funny.

[addamsfamily36]

Well, I will no longer be using the Pivot move in my games. Thanks guys for helping me out here.

I guess I'll have to deal with a 30" charge range instead of 32".

How ever will I cope?

Lol yeh im sure you'll cope lol. 30 inches is a scary charge range!!!

as for the help no worries, it was fun drawing the diagram and the aerial view of a raider.

[BuFFo]

Something about this struck me as funny.

I'll play the same game.

+1

[Wolfshade]

If you want to read a rebuttal to the "no decimal points on d6s" argument, please view the previous page. Mathhammers work.

I thought my post made it clear that I was quite happy how they [decimals] worked, although fractions would be better since we are talking in terms of sixths (or multiples thereof), and while that was fine to work out what is the expected out come, be fully aware that in a single game scenario they are a mathematical abstraction. In the same way the expected roll of a fair D6 is 3.5, but that has a zero probability of occurring, whereas rolling 1-6 all have the same probability of occurring that is 1/6.


Firstly, this is math or theory hammer so we can use decimals (or fractions) as it is an abstract situation (or an average of infinite actual situations).

Secondly, in an actual game scenario there are as pointed out no decimal dots on dice (unless you be cheating!) there are also no average results so all the theory hammer is great to show what *should* happen but doesn't mean that it will happen.


This is why some people pay three times the value of their houses in mortgage and more, and why some people (i.e. bankers) get to sell you a home for three times what they paid for it.

What I thought was needed was an acknowledgement of the two different scenarios and how they are both equally valid.


I am not quite sure what the leap is from probabiity to mortgage calculations, since mortgage payments are relative to the initial price borrowed with a component based on interest and since the interest value is always going to be greater than zero the bank is always going to make a profit.

[Judge]

I thought my post made it clear that what you're looking for was on the preceding page. It doesn't matter if you're "happy" about how they work or not. "Acknowledgement" of variance and differing scenarios is found where I told you to find it. Hint: probability trees.

As for mortgage scenarios, if you think that banks are going to always make a profit so long as interest is in the positives, the housing crash in the US that just occurred has taught you nothing. There are still bad loans, and sometimes the bank really does lose out. It just doesn't happen often.

Anyway, thanks for being the 37th poster to completely miss the point of this thread.

[BuFFo]

I am not quite sure what the leap is from probabiity to mortgage calculations, since mortgage payments are relative to the initial price borrowed with a component based on interest and since the interest value is always going to be greater than zero the bank is always going to make a profit.

Yeah. that was pretty ridiculous. lol.

I guess the point of this thread is that Meph can beat the banks. I don't know really.

[Judge]

BuFFo, you don't know the point of this thread because you'd rather post than read.

Adding to the mortgage argument, interest rate has to also be greater than rate of inflation. It usually is, since the Prime and inflation rates are under artificial influence (the Prime to a greater degree), but inflation has a way of getting out of control when it wants to, ala hyperinflation, ala Germany post-WWI.

Dishonest brokers and financiers will try to convince you through past performance trend lines that return rates are always positive taken over X number of years, so you're safe to invest with them/borrow in excess, because the future's sunny, and you can always pay them back. This relies on the Starting Point Fallacy. Slightly less dishonest brokers and financiers will try to convince you that, while crashes happen periodically, riding them out will lead to profit in the end if you're appropriately diverse in accordance with their elaborate indexing plan, and you're still safe to invest with them/borrow in excess, because the future's still sunny (enough). Which you deal with largely depends on how informed you are, as the one can become the other.

An honest broker or financier will tell you the whole system's built on eggshells and designed to collapse at a point (hopefully) in the far future so long as consumer confidence is maintained (which is generally the case, but which you'll see lapse at many points over the course of a lifetime). If consumer confidence is not maintained, it can collapse right now. The honest broker will tell you that his investments have profited so far, but that life's a crap shoot. Still, we've all gotta go sometime, so you might as well try something that works until it doesn't. Even if your fortunes die, you'll still be alive (probably), and people are more important than things (especially if you're starving, because you can eat people).

How refreshing it is to have small-scale, controlled mathematics and odds completely controlling an environment, with no deviation save that along safely predictable guidelines!

On the topic of form (as in good or bad), it should be noted that the point-by-point selective quote rebuttal form of argument is both rude and inherently fallacious, as it relies principally on Straw Men absent proper context, and is wholly oriented towards Attacking The Person. It only matters to me in principle, I suppose, but it should matter to you.

[BuFFo]

BuFFo, you don't know the point of this thread because you'd rather post than read.

Yeah, you are the first person who has ever posted a math based thread for a unit in 40k.

Congrats on being unique and above all our heads. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[Judge]

Apparently, I am above yours. You still don't know what the math means.

[Wolfshade]

As for mortgage scenarios, if you think that banks are going to always make a profit so long as interest is in the positives, the housing crash in the US that just occurred has taught you nothing. There are still bad loans, and sometimes the bank really does lose out. It just doesn't happen often.

The US housing market crash has taught me nothing as it hasn't affected my mortgage other than it being under written by the Irish Governement, my repayments have not changed, the amount I borrowed has not changed and the fact that I make my payment each month hasn't changed. Anyway what that has to do with the probabilty of rolling a dice I am still at a lose but not to worry.

I was however, taken aback at the thought that I was criticising either the concept or the math. I see how other posters have been vocal about the criticisms of it and that could have put you on the defensive.

I thought the whole point was that Mephiston would on average be able to take out most opponents in close combat, but his points are not reflective of that due to his raw stat line.

[Judge]

That's the third point, yes.

The first is that the editions are not ostensibly compatible, at least insofar as melee is concerned. Please note the difference in performance between opponents from 3rd, 4th and 5th edition codexes. There's little point in taking 3rd edition codex melee units at all against a well configured 5th edition army.

The second point is that units with high initiative (7) and instant death weapons (Str 10 or rune weapon for instant killing - take your pick) have a competitive advantage against non-instant death causing units.

The body of comparison wasn't just there to show "haha this guy's tuff." This is why the initial post came with a Conclusions section.

As for the US housing market, when it went, the US economy took a round smack to the tush, which affected European markets as well. Welcome to a global economy.

[BuFFo]

There is so much wrong with this i have drawn a diagram for your benefit:

http://www.lounge.belloflostsouls.net/photopost/data/638/medium/DELDAR_RAIDER.jpg



Situation A: you want to move your raider 12 inches straight forward. you pick a point on your tank (in this case the very front) you then measure twelve inches and then move said tank so that the same point (the front of the tank , is placed at the end of the tap measure or 12 inch mark depending on which way round your holding the measure)

Situation B: exactly the same except using a central point on the tank, you measure from this point and too this point.


Situation C: This is where you wish to pivot your tank. In this diagram i have included Situation A to show how you in-fact gain nothing by your technique of pivoting during the move and then returning to facing forward. heres a break down:

If you choose to pivot your raider, you lose two inches as your width is shorter than your length and you measure in the direction your traveling so from the side of the raider you move twelve forward then pivot back to facing forward re-gaining that two or so inches. so thats -2 (to start your move) +plus 12 during the move and then +2 from the pivot giving you a total of 12.

The same applies if you start your move say forward 6, then pivot, then sideways 6 then pivot again, because by pivoting you reduce the length of your vehicle.

You know what, it occurred to me that I was arguing the wrong thing when we were talking about Radiers and Pivot movement.

It took me a game I played yesterday to realize that I had my point of view wrong on this issue, but, what I mean is, I was actually correct that you can pivot a vehicle for further movement. I just had the situation wrong, and a situation you did not cover in your diagram.

I was saying that you pivot DURING your actual 12" movement, and I was retarded for saying so, because I never do this. I don't know why I even brought that up.

What I meant to say was this;

What you do is DEPLOY your Raiders sideways up against the Deployment Zone, and when it is time to move the Raider, you pivot FIRST, then you move 12". This way, you are not moving any further that 12" when you measure and move.

That is how Dark Eldar get the additional couple of inches to be able to get an average of 32" assault on turn 1.


This is what I said, and was wrong when saying so

Move 12 with raider and have it's final position be sideways to your target.

Pivot raider for extra 2".

Disembark "within" 2", which means that your Disembark is actually 2.9 inches (we'll call that three lol)

Fleet D6, we'll say 3" in this case.

Assault 12" due to combat drugs.

That is 32" on average with combat drugs, and 26" average without combat drugs.


This is how you do it

Deploy your Raider up against the Deployment Line sidways.

Pivot raider towards it's intended direction for extra 2" of 'hull' distance. You have not moved the Raider yet.

Move the Raider 12". Now, you have no exceeded the 12" movement.

Disembark "within" 2", which means that your Disembark is actually 2.9 inches (we'll call that three lol)

Fleet D6, we'll say 3" in this case.

Assault 12" due to combat drugs.

That is 32" on average with combat drugs, and 26" average without combat drugs.

[addamsfamily36]

Without my rulebook (its at home) i can't double check, but yup sounds ok to me, tad risky if your opponent can draw line of sight to your rear armor and gets the first turn, but otherwise.

[BuFFo]

Without my rulebook (its at home) i can't double check, but yup sounds ok to me, tad risky if your opponent can draw line of sight to your rear armor and gets the first turn, but otherwise.

Pffftttt

You must not know Dark Eldar.

Raiders are AV 10 all around. :P

[Wagzywagz]

It seems throughout this thread your conclusions have only been minimally addressed. I hope no one minds my diverting from the discussions on the housing market and the power level of the Dark Eldar to return to it. (Also, I hope that didn't come of as smug as it seems like it might.)

First, I would like to present some data that I have compiled. (This all assumes Meph is WS 7 (I think he is, but don't have codex))

I will assume that Mephiston passes all of his no retreat wounds, due to his 2+ armor.

Mephiston vs Keeper of Secrets

Assumes Sanguine Sword is successfully cast in all rounds
Round one
Keeper of Secrets takes the initiative
6 Attacks
4 Hits
2 Wounds
Mephiston Takes the initiative
5 Attacks
2.5 Hits
2.08 Wounds
1.04 Unsaved Wound
(Mephiston has 3 Wounds left, Keeper has 2.96)

Round two
Keeper of Secrets takes the initiative
6 Attacks
4 Hits
2 Wounds
Mephiston Takes the initiative
5 Attacks
2.5 Hits
2.08 Wounds
1.04 Unsaved Wound
(Mephiston has 1 Wound left, Keeper has 1.92)

Round three
Keeper of Secrets takes the initiative
6 Attacks
4 Hits
2 Wounds
Mephiston dies.

Keeper of Secrets wins with 1.92/4 wounds remaning.
price ratio: 1.25

Mephiston vs 6 TH/SS Terminators

Round one
Mephiston takes the initiative
5 attacks
3.33 Hits
2.77 Wounds
0.93 unsaved wounds (1 dead terminator)
Terminators strike back
10 Attacks
5 hits
4.17 Wounds
(Mephiston has .83 wounds left, 5 terminators still standing)

Round two
Both strike at I1
5 attacks
3.33 Hits
2.77 Wounds
0.93 unsaved wounds (1.86 total 2 dead terminator)
Terminators strike back
8 Attacks
4 hits
3.33 Wounds
Mephiston has -2.5 wounds left, 4 terminators still standing
Terminators win
price ratio: 1.04

Mephiston vs Wolf Lord with TH/SS Thunderwolf and Saga of the Bear(wolf lord is nearly as fast as Mephiston and can hide in squads)

Round One
Mephiston Takes the initiative
5 Attacks
4.45 hit
4.32 wound
1.44 unsaved
Wolf Lord Strikes
5 Attacks
2.5 Hit
2.08 Wounds
(Mephiston has 2.92 wounds left, wolf lord has 2.56 left)

Round Two both strike at I1
Mephiston Strikes
5 Attacks
4.45 hit
4.32 wound
1.44 unsaved
Wolf Lord Strikes
5 Attacks
2.5 Hit
2.08 Wounds
(Mephiston has .84 wounds left, wolf lord has 1.12 left)

Round Three both strike at I1
Mephiston Strikes
5 Attacks
4.45 hit
3.71 wound
1.23 unsaved
Wolf Lord Strikes
5 Attacks
2.5 Hit
2.08 Wounds
Mephiston is dead (-1.24 wounds), wolf lord is also dead(-0.32)
tie
price ratio: 1.04

Mephiston vs Skulltaker in a Chariot
Meph Strikes first
5 Attacks
2.5 Hit
2.08 Wounds
1.39 Unsaved Wounds
Skulltaker Counterattacks
5 Attacks
2.5 hit
1.25 Wound
Meph suffers Instant Death (from this thread, I don't think Meph is EW, but again, don't have the codex)

Skulltaker survives with 2.61 wounds

cost ratio: 1.43

15 Bloodletters vs Mephiston

Round One
Meph Attacks
5 Attacks
3.33 Hits
2.77 Wounds
1.85 Unsaved Wounds (2 dead)
Bloodletters attack back
26 Attacks
13 Hits
2.17 Wounds
(Meph has 2.83 wounds left, 13 bloodletters are alive)

Round two
Meph Attacks
5 Attacks
3.33 Hits
2.77 Wounds
1.85 Unsaved Wounds (3.7 wounds total, 4 dead)
Bloodletters attack back
22 Attacks
11 Hits
1.83 Wounds
(Meph has 1 wound left, 11 bloodletters are alive)

Round two
Meph Attacks
5 Attacks
3.33 Hits
2.77 Wounds
1.85 Unsaved Wounds (5.55 wounds total, 6 dead)
Bloodletters attack back
18 Attacks
9 Hits
1.5 Wounds
Meph Dies, 9 bloodletters are alive
Point Ratio: 1.04

There are probably other units that can kill Meph point for point, but I haven't ran the numbers for anyone else.
For the record Lysander loses.





Conclusions Based Upon Results:

1) 5th edition armies have more powerful melee than 3rd and 4th edition armies, as evidenced by relative performance of superior melee units, to such a degree that players using 3rd and 4th edition armies might well consider not playing with/against players using 5th edition armies. Note that while Mephiston kills 5th edition characters as well as 3th and 4th edition characters, he does so with greater difficulty, often receiving wounds in the process.



(As I am responding to your conclusions, I hope you don't mind a point by point response)

I don't think this is sufficiently proven by your data, as there are a lot of things that duels with Mephiston ignore that are very relevant in many assaults.

1. Defensive Statistics (Multiple wounds, Toughness, Armor save, Fnp): as with most CC monsters Mephiston has a S 10 force weapon. In this analysis a Nob, a Plague marine and a fire warrior all stand up equally well against Mephiston. This is obviously an incorrect conclusion, so our methods should be questioned.

2. Offensive Stats (WS, I): While none of these are explicitly ignored, they are all made nearly irrelevant, WS 5/6 and I 5/6 are usually great close combat boons, but they are irrelevant in this particular experiment.

In the opposite case, this experiment makes power weapons a requirement for success. Having a 2+ armor save and no invul is the situation in the game where a power weapon is most valuable, and while I would certainly say that power weapons are very good, this analysis overstates that. I believe this is best shown by comparing the berzerkers with the bloodletters against Meph.

I also take issue with your comment about players with 3rd and 4th ed codicies should consider just not playing against newer armies. I may be mistaken, but I believe that of the 5 remaining 3rd ed codicies (Dark Eldar, Tau, Witch hunters, Daemonhunters and Necrons) 3 are very good (Witch hunters, Dark Eldar and Tau, though that last one is controversial round these parts). While Necrons do suck pretty hard under the current ruleset, and daemonhunters can only survive by inducting a lot of ig, that doesn't mean that Codex creep has taken over the world. I would also like to point out that two of the best melee units in the game, boyz and bloodletters, are from 4th ed codexes. I really don't understand how you can so confidently proclaim that 4th ed books are underpowered just because they don't duel very well.



2) Instant Death weapon units with high initiative have a comparative advantage against units not possessing instant death weapons.



I agree with this conclusion, I don't think it is very useful, but it is correct.



3) Mephiston's performance is not in keeping with unit cost.



I can't outright disprove this conclusion, as there are obviously a number of situations where Mephiston is very good and worth far more than his points, however I would say that this isn't enough to make him broken.

Mephiston is very powerful, but he is really just a beat stick. Most of the other Characters in his price range provide large army wide bonuses, while Mephiston only helps you by killing dudes. He kills dudes very effectively, but he doesn't improve the rest of your army the way that Logan or Ghazgull or the Swarmlord does.

For that reason, I'm not yet ready to call him broken. I will agree that he is probably overall the most powerful melee combatant in the game, but he certainly can be countered.

[addamsfamily36]

Pffftttt

You must not know Dark Eldar.

Raiders are AV 10 all around. :P

And your ravagers?

i was including those too, which i believe have armor 11 :p

but you might not take these (but im pretty sure you do, as well why wouldn't you lol)

but you might not pivot these i suppose
:D