Abaddon is going to Win (and it's all Guilliman's fault)

[grimmas]

Abaddon is going to win.

Not only that in it's current state the Imperium won't be able to stop him.

I've been hitting the books (BL, FW and GW proper) and this is the conclusion I've arrived at.

Let's start at the beginning. The Great Crusade and Horus Heresy have shown us that it's all about the Astartes. There is nothing in the Galaxy that can't be beaten with the correct application of Astartes. They are the kings of the battlefield in the 41st Millennium much like the Tank in The Second World War. Much like the Shadukar in Dune they are the defining force that created and holds the empire together. interesting I think this is one of the biggest conceptual misconceptions people make when comparing Astartes to the Mobile infantry of Starship Troopers ( the book not film) but more of that later. Basically who controls the greatest force of Astartes controls the Galaxy and that "Who" is Abaddon

In fact I'd go as far to say that only Abaddon controls any Astartes and all the Imperium possess is Space Marines. Astartes are main line troops who fight major campaigns In real numbers they do not mince round in tiny numbers lending support to other troops. Abbadon is also the only being in the Galaxy to command an Astartes Legion and that is a significant factor. The Black Legion is not simply the Sons of Horus renamed that's just what the inquisition tells you (for reference see ADBs Talon of Horus) it is a true Legion comprised of Astartes from what were the other Traitor Legions and from its own recruitment (remember all that geneseed they got given in Storm of Iron) and outcasts from loyalist chapters. All these parts are not a loose alliance they are a true Legion held together by bonds of brotherhood as they were before the later stages of the Heresy.

This is important because no on else has a Legion, the traitors have been broken in battle Like the Nightlords, broken by their own corruption as the emperors children are, fragmented due to internal power struggles as the Word Bearers have been or just been Kharn'd like the World Eaters. Loyalist wise Guilliman and his Codex has done for them. You see Chapters are pretty much the least efficient fighting force with tens (if not hundreds) of rear echelon workers just to keep each Space Marine fighting, unlike the Mobile infantry (see I said they'd come up) who were massively efficient "everyone fights!" Wasn't a threat it was practicality they had no rear echelon the cooks fought, the doctor fought and the mechanics fought. Now the Legions weren't quite that good but they were better than having whole different logistics set up for every 1000 troops.

Chapters just don't have the cohesion between each other to create a force to counter Legion operation. It's been nearly 10000 years since the loyalists were split. Even Chapters with same geneseed are very disparate now. Just look at Uriel Ventris' reaction to the the Ultramarines successor chapter the Mortifactors in Warriors of Ultramar. We're a long way from what they managed at Tsanglusa.

Force is most effectively applied to a small point. A legion can focus its efforts in a small point and break it. A 1000 chapters spread across the galaxy fighting fires can't. If we take the examples of Germany defeating France during The Second World War. France and her allies had plenty of tanks which possessed better armour and bigger guns than the Germans but they were spread across France and the Germans hit at a small point with all their force overwhelming the Allied armies who were only able to respond piecemeal resulting in one of the most stunning military victories of all time. That's exactly what Abaddon will do. His Black Legion will hit in a concentrated point scattering the Chapters before it and burning Terra from history. Even better he has the remnants of the of Traitor Legions which are entirely disposable and can be sent out to start fires all over the Galaxy without diminishing his primary force, fires which are going to require the loyalist chapters to respond to.

The imperium Isn't going to be able to do what the Russia did at the siege of Stalingrad either. Abaddon isn't going to spread his force to conquer the whole Imperium he's just going to strike at it heart. He isn't going to being fighting symbolic battles over a wide front splitting his forces. He's going for the throat. Any second front is going to be open by him using (as mentioned before) his disposable allied Legion remnants which will split the forces opposed to him rather than doing it to his own primary force. Also the Imperium doesn't have allies that will be continually providing resources like the UK and US did for Russia. In fact from what we know of the Cabal the alien races opposed to Chaos actually want the Imperium to fall to Chaos and burn out taking most of the worshippers of the ruinous powers with it.

So we are talking about Legion Warfare something that cannot be countered by anything thing other than by other Legions. If it weren't for the Hersey the Legions would have used this to scour Alien life from the Galaxy. Don't be trying the "but the Tyrannids" rubbish they have trouble dealing with a chapter let alone a Legion. The only commander the Imperium has, that has any grasp of this style of warfare is Bjorn. Abaddon has hundreds of commanders who were present during the greatest battles the Gallaxy had even seen, the Isstvan campaign, the Dropsite Massacres and the Siege of Terra. The imperium just doesn't possess the tactical or strategic know how to counter it.

Abaddon is no frothing Lunatic he knows where Horus went wrong and that was when he let the bonds of brotherhood slip and so lost control of the Legions during the siege of Terra. To paraphrase Talon of Horus the Black Legion is not a Legion to fight the Great Crusade but rather one to fight the Long War. He spent 12 other Black Crusades not merely losing he's been testing, gaining resources, experience and strategic advantage. They were never supposed to beat the Imperium they were the set up for the coup de grace.

The Imperium has only one hope and that is to stop the Warmaster in space but that's not going to happen. Space Travel is dependent on the Warp and let's face it Abaddon has certain friends who can help with that. He could probably whip up a ruinstorm of his own and it'd be fairly easy this time it's not as if there's 250000 Ultramarines to deal with. If he needs to cause mass casualties he's got the Planet Killer and the activated Black Stone fortresses which can just start overloading stars.

In conclusion what we are looking at is Abaddon is going to unleash a War that the Imperium has no way of fighting they lack the resources and talent to counter it. They're going to lose Terra and the Emperor. Of course what actually happens when the Emperor finally dies is open for debate the Imperium ain't going to be able to stop it happening.

Of course if it still had Legions they'd be safe as houses. So it's probably all Guilliman's fault.

[Mr Mystery]

Space Travel is key, but consider that first the Renegade Astartes need to escape the Eye of Terror.

By no means insurmountable, but it does mean the Imperium has a bottleneck, and a far larger fleet at its disposal (it seems much of the Chaos fleets are comprised of Raiders and other small destroyer class ship.

The original Astartes could afford their way of war as they had near limitless resupply potential, for both men and materiel. And in the meantime, the Imperium's most important worlds have been heavily fortified for just such an attack, which can't be said of many planets during the crusade.

Whilst Abaddon, much like Horus, has the overall initiative, the Imperium stills knows their departure point and their ultimate goal, and this time doesn't have to fight Mars at the same time.

So for me, it's hard to see how Abaddon will replace losses on his way to Terra, whereas the Imperium has that in spades, not to mention entire fleets of archaic ship models in mothball. All it will take are two or three disastrous battles in terms of casualties, and Abaddon's fleet will begin to lose its critical mass.

Then there's Terra itself. It has a repository of Geneseed from every Legion and Chapter there has ever been, and a few billion potential Space Marines.

Who knows what stockpiles Mars holds in terms of equipment? We know the Renegades have to depend upon less advanced weapons and tanks etc. It could well be that Abaddon ha been hordeing the nicer kit from recent Renegades, but just how many would that be? It's comparatively rare for whole Chapters to turn, so it's not as if every contemporary betrayal has brought a full armoury with it.

The Imperium has the option of bleeding an invasion force white. I'm not sure the same can be said for Chaos.

[charliemachina]

I agree with Mr Mystery the Imperium will bottle neck the 13th crusade at the Cadian Gate.....this will buy them time. Abaddon will break through then his route will be slowed by having to take strongpoint after strongpoint. The Chapters and Imperial Navy will be able to attack the vast fleet and pick their battes. The smaller chaos forces will be drawn into wars of attrition where possible but largely ignored in prefernce to the defence of terra. Abaddon will break into the Sol system and have to fight the full force of the Segmentum Solar in a vast space battle.........then comes his Stalingrad at Terra itself. Meanwhile any strongpoints that have been bypassed will assist in the process of attacking Abaddons army from the rear and cutting supply. Straggling Imperial Forces will eventually build up and try and break through to relived Terra.

Abaddon if he does not stirke fast enough will end up seiging terra and being attacked in orbit.....he will have a war on two fronts.

It will all come down to the force he has remaining when he reaches orbit round Terra and how quickly he can break the Emperors palace.......Legion or not there are few citadels that will compare.........the fate of the 13th Crusade is far from certain.

[grimmas]

The imperium doesn't have force concentration to force the war of attrition though. Granted it's has the potential to do so but isn't in the shape to do so at the moment. Abaddon is good to go the imperium needs to reorganise on a massive scale and that'll take them centuries to even get round to think about.

The potential to create more Marines is no good they need more now and they need them in the same place. Also it takes decades to produce a full Space Marine and thats assuming the technology to produce marines on an industrial scale exists which is doubtful after 10000yrs. Again that also presumes that the Imperium can tie up the traitors in a war of attrition.

Abaddon doesn't need to reduce every fortification the imperium has. He ha sis best buds with the entities who control the wrap he can just bypass them.

[Gotthammer]

Knowing his luck Abbadon will get to Terra and blow it up, causing the Emperor to instantly reincarnate, bring back the loyalist primarchs and drop kick him and the traitors back into the Eye.

[Mr Mystery]

Or he'll plough his fleet into a Hive Fleet fighting Orks :p

[grimmas]

Haha yeah sounds like the sort of thing that would happen

Just to developer the war of attrition thing. That's what the last 10000yrs has been about. Far from bleeding the traitors white they've actually got stronger while the Impetium has become more fractured, riddled with superstition, weakened and beset on all sides by enemies. We're looking at the end game rather the opening of a war.

[Morgrim]

Arguably the Imperium still has two, possibly 3 legions. The Black Templars are acknowledged as having far more marines than they're supposed to, but they're scattered all over the place on crusade, so as you said they may not be able to fight in the unified fashion required. On the other hand, they're coherent enough to learn in a hurry.

The Dark Angels and Blood Angels are both split into multiple chapters but in many ways on a technicality. Dark Angels successors are noted to be extremely loyal to their progenitor chapter and also participate in the hunt for the Fallen. Given the secrecy this hunt takes place in, that says that the leadership of those chapters is in very close alliance to those on the Rock. Again, they have the coherence required.

The Blood Angels have successors that are sometimes very different from them with unique fighting styles and preferences. However, when Baal was threatened every single successor chapter turned up to defend it, and fought as one. This was noted to seriously disturb the Inquisition because they fought as if they were a Legion, despite it being centuries since the Heresy. (The other reason it disturbed the Inquisition is because two of the chapters that turned up had been declared Heretic, and yet they joined in the fight and none of the others stopped them or batted an eyelid. As far as the Blood Angels were concerned if you haven't fallen to Chaos you're still brothers.)

[Mr Mystery]

Space Wolves too.

So far as I'm aware, there's no set number for a Great Company.

[Morgrim]

Space Wolves too.

So far as I'm aware, there's no set number for a Great Company.

True, but given they only split once I thought the Space Wolves were on the small side for a Legion. So even combined they may not have the sheer weight of bodies required.

[Mr Mystery]

They make it up for it in being completely hatstand

[grimmas]

All far too small for legion strength and although they do come together for specific goals they are still distinct individual units working together rather than a whole.

The Black Templars are probably the most similar in terms of organisation but the upper estimate of their numbers is what, 5000?

And the Dark Angels are traitor anyway 😝

[Mr Mystery]

Belakor is also working against Abaddon, mucking about with potential lieutenants and stuff.

In short, the trouble with Chaos, is that it's Chaos. Abaddon may have the favour of the four brothers, but each wants ultimate victory for themselves.

[grimmas]

Very true. Of course that is why Abaddon remains mortal because as soon as he ascends he'll be fighting the God's agenda, like the deamon Primarchs (who swear fealty to him not the other way round), rather than his own.

[Haighus]

The Space Wolves have no set size, but Grimnar's company is supposed to be the largest, and he has just over 200 Marines in the supplement released a couple of years ago, so the whole Chapter is likely to be about 2000 Marines (I think Ragnar's company is ~150 Marines). So it is a considerable force, but small for a Legion. Of course, as Mystery states, they are utterly crazy and seem to have fended off the Thousand Sons several times with a single company.

The Imperial Fists are also noted as being very close to many of their successors (including the Black Templars), so they would likely be able to form a coherent force of several thousand Marines also. Imperial Fists are probably also the loyalists that Abaddon least wants on the walls of Terra... :D Not to mention they have the Phalanx, which is still the largest ship ever wielded by the Imperium, and survived both the Horus Heresy and the War of the Beast.

You mention the fact that the Chapters will not fight together effectively as one, as the Legions did, but even in the Great Crusade, the Legions were divided into smaller units, which had a high degree of autonomy in many cases, and also often had quite distinct cultures. That is what made splitting the Loyalist Legions into Chapters relatively easy- there were subdivisions already. The biggest issue would be determining who is in command. Evidence from situations in which large numbers of Marines were mobilised in the 41st Millennium suggests that Chapters do not fight well together, unless they have strong unified leadership. The Badab war is the best example of this- the loyal forces were having their ***** handed to them until reinforcements arrived, and the Red Scorpions took overall control. Once the Scorpions took command, and everyone followed their orders, the situation improved massively and put the renegades on the back foot, and ultimately defeated them. The same is true of Armageddon- the Black Templars had overall command, so the Marine forces were effective.

It is also true that Marines are not the only candidates for overall command. There are many human officers who have commanded hundreds of thousands of men, and would have the experience to deal with such logistical issues- they would be able to assist in commanding a force with thousands of Marines too.

I am also not sure where you are coming from as regards logistics- the Chapters being largely self-sufficient in their logistical supply is a benefit, not a detriment. Fleet Chapters especially are completely mobile and self sufficient. This is also no different to the forces of the Great Crusade- many units were very self sufficient, because they did not have good supply lines to the frontiers of the Imperium; most of the Legions had supplies coming from very centralised locations though, and had much weaker supply situations in the Heresy than the Chapters would have. In addition, whilst Marines do have extensive numbers of serfs supporting their efforts, they are also capable of operations for months without support too. As others have said, Abaddon cannot really afford to enter a war of attrition- he would be aiming for the decapitation strike, so it is unlikely that defending Marines would be pushed right to the limits of their logistics, and would be able to cope without serfs for the campaign.

Finally, you state that no force can resist an Astartes Legion, except another Legion. But there are examples in the Horus Heresy where predominantly non-Astartes forces defeat Legion forces, most notably Tallarn, where the main bulk of the Iron Warriors and their Primarch are defeated by massed forces of the Imperial Army and driven away from the planet without achieving their objectives. This is during a time where the idea of having to fight Astartes was until very recently thought to be ludicrous too, so very few had planned for it. The IoM is now more experienced in such matters, and has entire Inquisitorial Ordos dedicated to that purpose.

[Storm96]

Lets not forget the Salamanders have no successor chapters. Who knows how many they have after 10,000 years of rebuilding. There's mention of chapters being on the brink of extinction and needing a century or more to replenish. Imagine how many little green lizards have been hatched in 10 centuries. Yes I know current fluff says they only have 7 companies but if you really believe that then I have some land in Florida that perfect for building on. Great price and not in a swamp I swear! Personally I can't wait to see the payback for Istvaan. When it comes....whoo boy. There's not an eye nor any other orifice of the warp that Abbaddon is gonna be able to run away through.

[Mr Mystery]

Very true. Of course that is why Abaddon remains mortal because as soon as he ascends he'll be fighting the God's agenda, like the deamon Primarchs (who swear fealty to him not the other way round), rather than his own.

From the advent bumph about Belakor, it seems Belakor is the reason Abaddon, Horus and Archaon will never ascend.

Belakor was the first Daemon Prince, raised up by all four. Trouble was, none of them could control him. Whatever he wanted to do, would benefit at least one of the gods, at the cost of other(s). As long as one saw advantage in his shenanigans, the others couldn't prevent it.

I love that Warscroll thing. He's a total dick, and loving it because literally no force can ever truly stop him.

And how much power can they pour into Abaddon when they are reluctant, or plain completely unwilling to give him ascension (not that there's anything to suggest that's his goal). When Horus fought the Emperor, it was only their blessings that made it anywhere near an even match.

Horus of course was a Primarch, with a Primarch's physiology. Abaddon is 'just' an Astartes. Pour too much in, and we know what happens. Your main dude just became your main gribbly, mindless sac of tentacles and testicles.... Given there's at least the outside prospect of a loyalist Primarch coming back and getting their Ming on, let alone Mr Emperor Sir M'Lord (to give him his full name), it seems Abaddon is gonna need some serious Chaos Jungle Juice (not to mention all those Titans stomping about, because accidents and little splutchy pancakes do happen!) not to find out just what it's like to have the average life expectancy of a Guardsman, or worse, Chaos Cultist.

Me? I'd absolutely love to see 40k End Times, but done ala Forgeworld's Heresy series, so it's not a case of 'got bored, nuked setting'. Though it seems we're shifting from One Minute To Midnight to at least Fifty Nine Seconds To Midnight in the new campaign books (which I for one welcome, because if End Times and AoS, and indeed The Force Awakens has shown me, is that not knowing what's going to happen, or has happened, totes awakens my inner child)

Oh, and I'd pay good money to see Russ turn up and do to Abaddon what Hulk did to Loki, except finishing the job :p

[grimmas]

The fact remains any talk of reconstitution of loyalist legions is that it's is totally notional none of the forces people mention exist. What does exist is a large number of independent chapters spread over the entire galaxy. Of courses it's even worse than that as each of these chapters is actually broken down to in many cases individual companies and small which are intern scattered everywhere fight there own battles. The forming of legion style formations is against the tenants of the Codex Astartes and as such would be viewed as an act of rebellion if not ordered by the high lords of terra and they haven't.

It doesn't matter what they could do at some notional point in the future. Abaddon is ready now. The imperial forces will need time to assemble time they don't have especially when you consider that they first need to communicate the need, trough the wrap, and then assemble from a great many different points of a great distance, through the warp. Who controls the warp? They've got a problem. It doesn't matter how good the Imperial Fists are at defending or how big the Phalanx is if they're stuck In the Damocles gulf by a warpstorm. They don't sit around on Terra they move around the Galaxy. Which is also part of the issue the imperium can't afford to have a large enough force of Marines sitting around waiting for Abaddon they've got Tau, Nids, Orks, Eldar and Necrons to fight.

A chapter is only self sufficient from its point of origin. If they aren't a space bound chapter that leaves them tied to a planet in another part of the Galaxy not very helpful when trying to fight a war elsewhere. Chapters also aren't necessarily self sufficient there's plenty of mention of chapters who lack the supplies to even survive. Chapters do not have a commonality of supply each looks after their own that is not efficient. It pretty handy if you're fighting a guerrilla style war or roaming around providing assistance to others it's not so when fighting a full scale war. Also it's not just about supplies it's also about troops and getting them where they need to be at the right time. That'll be next to impossible when you've every 1000 troops basically doing their own thing. The second founding was about limiting the power of Space Marines not increasing it.

At the third war of Armageddon Helbrecht had less then 20000 marines under his command across the whole campaign. The battles we're talking about will have 5-10 times that many just in individual battles. The greatest battles of the Heresy had at least 20- 30 times that number. Abaddon wasn't in charge but at least he was there in a command position. With imperial forces it's hardly an absolute thing it's all about pacts, alliances and honour. The Dark Angels are likely to bugger off on their own agenda at the drop of a hat (much as they did during the Heresy) for example. Human officers don't command Space Marines they can petition them for help but that's about all. Even Macharius Solar only had that.

The Iron warriors weren't defeated by force of arms they were put back in their box by Horus after he found out that the whole thing was a power grab. The Unification Wars, Great Crusade and Horus Heresy are evidence of how Astartes (and their prototypes) are really the only force capable of securing the Galaxy.

Again the war of attrition has been going on for nearly 10000 yrs and the Imperium is losing it. Abaddons 13th Crusade is going to the finishing move of that War not a continuation of it. It's the move that breaks the stalemate. It's not going to be a drawn out fight over all fronts it's going to be a concentrated push through to the ultimate objective. Remember he isn't trying to conquer the Imperium he is trying to kill the emperor.

Abaddon doesn't need to fight Russ( if he's still alive) he's got Angron for that and he's done Russ before. Of course there might be some more of the Daemon Primarchs who want a piece of Russ.

The Salamanders are an example of how far the Imperium has fallen. Without the Galaxy wide recruitment of the Great Crusade they've been unable to even maintain Chapter numbers let alone recover Legion strength.

There's also a big difference between individual Expedition fleets gaining common experience from fighting campaigns together for a couple of decades and Chapter's developing totally different cultures over thousands of years.

[Mr Mystery]

A lot of it is also based on Knowns.

Would anyone put it past the High Lords to have been secretly siphoning off tithed Geneseed and holding any number of Marines in stasis somewhere.

[grimmas]

A lot of it is also based on Knowns.

Would anyone put it past the High Lords to have been secretly siphoning off tithed Geneseed and holding any number of Marines in stasis somewhere.

Well knowns is all we've got go on. The High Lords may be up to all sort of stuff but then they might not be. It all part of the fun. Also someone might have read something we've missed and it'll and a new perspective

[Mr Mystery]

Yup!

[Chris*ta]

I still find the idea that all the Chaos Marines in the EoT are going to form up nicely and follow Abaddon on a crusade a little iffy. The various Legions had trouble working together back during the Great Crusade, only now they've had 10,000 years to divide into smaller forces, change and (literally) mutate, as well as the various gods they worship pulling different groups in different directions. Not to mention the fact that they have no real way to recruit new marines.

The Imperium has billions of troops on Cadia, as well as (presumably) a similar number in easy reach around the EoT, as well as who knows how many ships.

In addition, the Astartes Praeses (http://wh40k.lexicanum.com/wiki/Astartes_Praeses) in place around the EoT, 18 chapters of marines which are primarily tasked with guarding the EoT. We can assume that these chapters each have reasonable fleets, as they would be required to defend against attack.

Further, remember that these forces don't have to win, they just need to delay Abaddon's forces while two things happen: 1) The real forces, Imperial Guard, Space Marine, Fleet and other can be brought to bear against Abaddon's forces, and 2) The cracks start to develop in Abaddon's forces, and they become too busy fighting amongst themselves to be able to prosecute the crusade.

[Haighus]

The fact remains any talk of reconstitution of loyalist legions is that it's is totally notional none of the forces people mention exist. What does exist is a large number of independent chapters spread over the entire galaxy. Of courses it's even worse than that as each of these chapters is actually broken down to in many cases individual companies and small which are intern scattered everywhere fight there own battles. The forming of legion style formations is against the tenants of the Codex Astartes and as such would be viewed as an act of rebellion if not ordered by the high lords of terra and they haven't.

It doesn't matter what they could do at some notional point in the future. Abaddon is ready now. The imperial forces will need time to assemble time they don't have especially when you consider that they first need to communicate the need, trough the wrap, and then assemble from a great many different points of a great distance, through the warp. Who controls the warp? They've got a problem. It doesn't matter how good the Imperial Fists are at defending or how big the Phalanx is if they're stuck In the Damocles gulf by a warpstorm. They don't sit around on Terra they move around the Galaxy. Which is also part of the issue the imperium can't afford to have a large enough force of Marines sitting around waiting for Abaddon they've got Tau, Nids, Orks, Eldar and Necrons to fight.
The Imperium has been shown to respond to sufficiently large threats very quickly indeed though- the response to the third war for Armageddon was raised in less than a year, and Armageddon doesn't have anything like the standing forces just waiting for Chaos attacks around the Cadian Gate. The Imperium ALREADY has a large force of Space Marines just waiting around. Admittedly in Chapters, which are less effective than a combined force in a straight-up fight, but then they may not need to face Abaddon in a straight up fight.
Phalanx is also stationed at Terra by standard- space combat is Abaddon's greatest weakness, and the Sol system is filled with space defenses (and it's own battle fleet).

The Warp is also has been shown not to work the way you have been describing- many planets in the Imperium are strategically important because they can't be bypassed. Horus had great command over the tides of the Warp, stranding many of his foes forces, and aiding his own, but he still had to follow stable Warp routes through the Imperium, and therefore had certain planets he was forced to attack. Cadia is the best example of this, for all Abaddon's command of the Warp, he is forced to take large forces through the Cadian gate. So Abaddon will not be able to bypass many strongholds, Cadia especially, because they are constructed in vital Warp intersections and fleets passing through these routes will come into conflict with the stronghold. Horus had to obey these routes across the Imperium, Abaddon also has to obey these routes in and around the Eye, I see no reason why Abaddon is suddenly going to have the capability to ignore an established chunk of the fluff.


A chapter is only self sufficient from its point of origin. If they aren't a space bound chapter that leaves them tied to a planet in another part of the Galaxy not very helpful when trying to fight a war elsewhere. Chapters also aren't necessarily self sufficient there's plenty of mention of chapters who lack the supplies to even survive. Chapters do not have a commonality of supply each looks after their own that is not efficient. It pretty handy if you're fighting a guerrilla style war or roaming around providing assistance to others it's not so when fighting a full scale war. Also it's not just about supplies it's also about troops and getting them where they need to be at the right time. That'll be next to impossible when you've every 1000 troops basically doing their own thing. The second founding was about limiting the power of Space Marines not increasing it. Ok, true in terms of efficiency. It is worth considering that that makes the Chapters hard to cut off though, because rather than them all suffering when Mars is destroyed, as in the Heresy for example, they are able to look for themselves. Also, the number of fleet based Chapters is not inconsiderable, and includes some of the most powerful- Black Templars, Dark Angels, Imperial Fists (technically not fleet based, but effectively are), Minotaurs.


At the third war of Armageddon Helbrecht had less then 20000 marines under his command across the whole campaign. The battles we're talking about will have 5-10 times that many just in individual battles. The greatest battles of the Heresy had at least 20- 30 times that number. Abaddon wasn't in charge but at least he was there in a command position. With imperial forces it's hardly an absolute thing it's all about pacts, alliances and honour. The Dark Angels are likely to bugger off on their own agenda at the drop of a hat (much as they did during the Heresy) for example. Human officers don't command Space Marines they can petition them for help but that's about all. Even Macharius Solar only had that. 20,000 Marines is still a significant accumulation of force, and more importantly, the fleet to go with it was especially massive. Helbrecht's most important contribution was in the fleet action, and this is the area that the Imperium has the greatest advantage in. Also, whilst there were battles in the Great Crusade and Horus Heresy with larger Astartes forces, they were also uncommon and generally Primarch led, so Abaddon's experience in such matters, even as first captain, is not going to be great from a command perspective. Abaddon would also be unlikely to commit such vast concentrations of his troops to individual battles too, not without absolute space superiority in the system- his Astartes resources are not infinite. Large troop concentrations are too vulnerable to exterminatus, which the Imperium is willing to use in extreme situations. Also, isn't Abaddon's forces also just a collections of pacts and alliances? I see no reason why they should be any less fractious.


The Iron warriors weren't defeated by force of arms they were put back in their box by Horus after he found out that the whole thing was a power grab. The Unification Wars, Great Crusade and Horus Heresy are evidence of how Astartes (and their prototypes) are really the only force capable of securing the Galaxy. Horus was the one to order him to withdraw, but it still remains a fact that the Imperial Army successfully prevented Perturabo from achieving his objectives on Tallarn for a significant chunk of the Horus Heresy. The Vanus temple also played an important role.


Again the war of attrition has been going on for nearly 10000 yrs and the Imperium is losing it. Abaddons 13th Crusade is going to the finishing move of that War not a continuation of it. It's the move that breaks the stalemate. It's not going to be a drawn out fight over all fronts it's going to be a concentrated push through to the ultimate objective. Remember he isn't trying to conquer the Imperium he is trying to kill the emperor. Which is what Horus attempted to do, and even Horus with 8 Legions did not head straight to Terra after crippling 3 of the Loyalist Legions, he knew it was too tough a target.


Abaddon doesn't need to fight Russ( if he's still alive) he's got Angron for that and he's done Russ before. Of course there might be some more of the Daemon Primarchs who want a piece of Russ. Magnus? :D


The Salamanders are an example of how far the Imperium has fallen. Without the Galaxy wide recruitment of the Great Crusade they've been unable to even maintain Chapter numbers let alone recover Legion strength. Yeah, the Sallies were never a large Legion, and they have only just begun investing an 8th company for the first time in 10,000 years. They never really benefited from widespread recruitment though, especially not after discovering Nocturne- the Salamanders have and had a high geneseed rejection rate, and extremely tough selection criteria.


There's also a big difference between individual Expedition fleets gaining common experience from fighting campaigns together for a couple of decades and Chapter's developing totally different cultures over thousands of years. I was mainly considering that many legions (Imperial Fists especially) would induct youths wholesale from recently defeated cultures as they were brought into compliance, and then use them to create entirely new companies off-the-bat. This resulted in the Imperial Fists having hugely variable individual companies, yet with an over-riding theme as determined by their geneseed, as well as the overall command of the Legion, loyalty and duty stamped into them. It is partly why the various successors of the Imperial Fists are especially varied, even initially from the 2nd and 3rd foundings.


I would like to point out that I don't think this means that Abaddon can't win, only that it is not as foregone a conclusion that he will annihilate the Imperium as you have posited in the OP.

[grimmas]

Chris*ta, they're not going to. All of the Black Legion will follow him absolutely and they are the ones that are still a Legion. All the other traitor Legion Warbands are going to tag along good the ride some may follow others will do their own thing which is fine as this will pull loyalist forces elsewhere. This will further spread them out weaking their repsonse. Abaddon has been shown to use Warbands from other Legions to do the dying so he can conserve Balck Legion forces, this is shown quite nicely in the Nightlords series, Soul Hunter I think.

[Haighus]

Chris*ta, they're not going to. All of the Black Legion will follow him absolutely and they are the ones that are still a Legion. All the other traitor Legion Warbands are going to tag along good the ride some may follow others will do their own thing which is fine as this will pull loyalist forces elsewhere. This will further spread them out weaking their repsonse. Abaddon has been shown to use Warbands from other Legions to do the dying so he can conserve Balck Legion forces, this is shown quite nicely in the Nightlords series, Soul Hunter I think.
Hmm, I thought Abaddon was near constantly fighting off challenges and destroying insidious plots against his power in particularly brutal ways- isn't this how Chaos works? The strongest leads, and they remain in charge until someone stronger comes along. At the moment, Abaddon is stronger, but if such a large scale campaign begins to run into issues, he has a lot of daggers at his back, and Chaos is nothing if not fickle.

[charliemachina]

I agree with Chris*ta

Thre will initially be total chaos.....cult uprisings, raiding forces, Daemon incursions and Chaos forces rampaging out of the Maelstrom and other chaos strongholds will initially seriously hamper the ability of Imperial Forces to rally to Terra.

Abaddon will be slowed by the Cadian Gate Planet killers or not there is a massive concentration of Marines and hardened Navy and Astra Militarum forces in this area Abaddon will struggle to break through quickly with the main body of his force still holding together as one.

The more he can be slowed the more time the slow, slow cogs of the imperial machine will begin to turn. The Navy will mass and the Navy is a power that can rival even a Astartes legion. The full force of the Astra Militarum will recruit and deploy eventually mustering enough strength to grind chaos forces into the ground one by one Astartes or otherwise as Astartes are not intended to fight battles of attrition. Even when Chaos wins local victory after local victory the Imperium can just throw more and more guard at each field on conflict.

Each Imperial Stronghold bypassed will drain momentum from the Chaos advance as it is used to co-ordinate attacks on the Chaos armies rear or drains resources through seige.....think of Leningrad in WW2.

It is inevitable that Chaos forces will fall upon each other as the momentum of the Chaos advance begins to slow.

It will be a awesome story and there will be many unknown forces at work.....ultimately despite the current state of the imperium.....the power of a Astartes Legion........the comparative weekness of human forces......the only question will be CAN ABBADDON BREAK THE EMPERORS PALACE BEFORE THE FULL FORCE OF THE IMPERIUM IS BROUGHT TO BEAR......the answer to this question is what we are all desperate to find out.

All very exciting.

[Psychosplodge]

In addition, the Astartes Praeses (http://wh40k.lexicanum.com/wiki/Astartes_Praeses) in place around the EoT, 18 chapters of marines which are primarily tasked with guarding the EoT. We can assume that these chapters each have reasonable fleets, as they would be required to defend against attack.

Didn't a large portion of those fall to chaos?

[Haighus]

The Astartes Praeses are eighteen Space Marine Chapters whose main task is to guard the frontiers of the Eye of Terror. The brotherhood was originally founded with twenty chapters, but one has been destroyed and another declared excommunicatus traitorus.
According to Lexicanum.

[grimmas]

My apologies Haighus you are correct the Phalanx is in the Sol system at the moment. However it is currently the scene of a brutal battle between its custodians and an a company of Iron Warriora a battle which it isn't clear who's going to win.

That's pretty impressive of the Iron warriors who managed to get all the way to the orbit of Terra without arousing too much trouble on the way there. Admittedly they had Belakor's help but I'm sure others could get similar assistance. It is the sort of thing I was talking about the Traitor Legion Warbands are very capable of causing serious trouble on their own which will cost the Imperium and not really effect Abaddon's forces. It might not be that helpful if it causes a large scale deployment of extra forces to the are though.

Couple this with the fact Abaddon's managed to slip past it 12 times before, including the Gothic War when he did so with a fleet bigger than that of an Imperial sector. It does beg the question of how much a barrier the Cadian Pylons actually are. Of course he does have a Planet Killer and some activated Blackstone fortresses he might just blow it up.

I know is was a little absolute in the OP but I was trying to spark a bit of discussion on the subject and going a little heavy seems to get things going 😳. I do think the Imperium Is going to find itself in serious trouble and a lot more than just losing Cadia. They're going to have to come up something better than hoping Abaddon obliges then by smashing his forces to pieces against Cadia when he doesn't really need to. It's all a bit reminiscent of France and the Maginot line.

18 Chapters sounds impressive but they're still spread across the sector and even if only 10% of the traitor remain it's still pretty small numbers to face them.

[Alaric]

Good read. Good topic Grimmas.

You are obviously a military buff so I wont make this into a "thing" or anything but I dont believe you are giving chapters their due. There is something to be said aboot driven small unit tactics. If, as you predict, Abaddon goes just to kill the Emperor, then a guerrilla war may ensue in which case the chapters may come out ahead. As you stated, legion tactics Trump chapter tactics. I dont dispute that but I would add "in a protracted war" When it comes to Wars over ideals, much like nowadays, there dont seem to be large battles anymore. If the same held true in the 41St DDay I cant see the big A cruising in and laying waste and getting bled to get out. He wants to live so I doubt he would just rush in as he would need to do, I would see him getting Cadia first. Thats his foothold, like The Beaches of Normandy, and that he will win with the tactics you hilight. No argument, Cadia is his. My.. And this isn't the right word but it will suffice, problem with legion tactics ruling the day come in on the journey to terra. I dont see legion tactics being the hammer needed to break down the gates of Terra.

Its still Guillemans fault ;) just cuz.

Again, good read and good convo. Keep em comin!

[Haighus]

Hehe it is true that the Phalanx is currently SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS beset by a daemonic incursion led by Bel'akor and an Iron Warriors warsmith. On the other hand, the defending forces look like typical Black Library 'under-dog heroes' so I don't fancy Chaos' chances in this, especially considering the Fists are on home turf in one of the greatest fortresses in existence. Although that is not strictly a fluff-based argument, more just looking at the way Black Library writes :D

I was under the impression it took a good 10,000 or so years for Abaddon to work out a way of bypassing Cadia for the 12th Black Crusade?

[Psychosplodge]

The Astartes Praeses are eighteen Space Marine Chapters whose main task is to guard the frontiers of the Eye of Terror. The brotherhood was originally founded with twenty chapters, but one has been destroyed and another declared excommunicatus traitorus.
According to Lexicanum.

My mistake. I thought it was at least a quarter including the relictors *shrugs*

- - - Updated - - -

What book have I missed for this phlanx incursion?

[Brakkart]

My mistake. I thought it was at least a quarter including the relictors *shrugs*

- - - Updated - - -

What book have I missed for this phlanx incursion?

Sentinels of Terra. The fluff in it is kinda terrible really but sadly canon nonetheless.

[Psychosplodge]

That'd be why i've not seen it.

[grimmas]

Oh sorry should've mentioned there might be spoilers in the title.

Yep in Sentinels of Terra it's kind of a follow up to SM battles Malodrax.

Suffice it to say Phalanx ain't going to be an issue at the moment

[Morgrim]

My mistake. I thought it was at least a quarter including the relictors *shrugs*

- - - Updated - - -

What book have I missed for this phlanx incursion?

I thought the Relictors were Badab? I know a bunch of the Badab defenders fell, but that's a different warp breach.

[Psychosplodge]

I was sure they were one of the Astartes Praeses, I might be wrong though. *shrugs* its probably in the lexicanium.

[grimmas]

They were but were declared excommunicate Tratoris during the 13th Black Crusade by the Inquisition because they were using the weapons of Chaos against Chaos. Of course this isn't necessarily the case anymore as the the 13th Black Crusade has been retconed and hasn't happened yet.

[grimmas]

Good read. Good topic Grimmas.

You are obviously a military buff so I wont make this into a "thing" or anything but I dont believe you are giving chapters their due. There is something to be said aboot driven small unit tactics. If, as you predict, Abaddon goes just to kill the Emperor, then a guerrilla war may ensue in which case the chapters may come out ahead. As you stated, legion tactics Trump chapter tactics. I dont dispute that but I would add "in a protracted war" When it comes to Wars over ideals, much like nowadays, there dont seem to be large battles anymore. If the same held true in the 41St DDay I cant see the big A cruising in and laying waste and getting bled to get out. He wants to live so I doubt he would just rush in as he would need to do, I would see him getting Cadia first. Thats his foothold, like The Beaches of Normandy, and that he will win with the tactics you hilight. No argument, Cadia is his. My.. And this isn't the right word but it will suffice, problem with legion tactics ruling the day come in on the journey to terra. I dont see legion tactics being the hammer needed to break down the gates of Terra.

Its still Guillemans fault ;) just cuz.

Again, good read and good convo. Keep em comin!


Thank you.

I think you raise a fair point. I think the Chapters would be an advantage if there is going to lots of small battles all over the place that only need the deployment of small forces to deal with. Which is generally what happens in the Imperium at the moment. It's just that I can see Abaddon utilising the Taitor Legion Warbands to increase the number of those types of battle pulling the Imperium's forces apart to deal with them before launching a hammer blow with a Legion style attack with the Black Legion.

Of course the Chapters, being pretty much independent, will be able to continue the fight regardless of the loss of Terra (igonring the problems that may be caused by the loss of the Astronomicon) much like the insurgent forces did In Afganistan after the Coalition invasion took the Taliban government out fairly quickly. However that would be after the traitors had achieved their objective of "death to the false Emperor"

[nuclearfeet]

40k end times will most definitely happen in one of these ways:

A) Big E dies finally- cue Starchild scenario(would be the most interesting outcome and set the scene for Awesome 40k)

B) Abaddon is poised to win initially but is foiled at the last minute by a deus-ex-machina(Cypher, lost primarchs, C'tan hidden under the surface of Mars, Chaos being Chaos)

C) Chaos wipes out the Imperium. Chaos stagnates and eventually dies out(boring and unlikely)

You can pretty much count the daemon primarchs out of the end-game. They're too busy with their own little corners of the warp to care.
Is Abaddon in a strategic position to win the end-game? Most definitely
Will it end with Imperium: 0 Abaddon: 1? Lol.

Let's face it- This is GW we're talking about here. They hate Chaos, and Chaos will never win if GW has anything to say about it. Don't believe me? cough*Codex: Chaos Space Marines*cough

[Mr Mystery]

Very slight tangent.....is there any record of how the Daemon Primarchs feel about Abaddon?

I know that post-Terra, the Sons of Horus took a right pasting from their fellow traitors - and that played a large part in Abaddon founding the Black Legion. He too was disappointed in Horus' failure.

Because that's quite a large consideration as to how successful any attack on Terra would be.

[grimmas]

They work for him.

It's mentioned that he a bested them all (but it isn't detailed how) and they have sworn fealty to him. In essence they're his *****es. I doubt they're very happy about it but let's face it they were never happy about anything. It is noted that they are only limited help in the long war though as they are tied very much to whims of their patrons rather than to their own desires. They're also daemons which also limits their usefulness in real space hence the Dark Gods need for Abaddon.

They're unwilling servants but judging by Angron's appearance in The Emperor's Gift far more powerful than they were in life, their influence is limited by being warp entities but trey are servants none the less.

Abaddon very much gets over his daddy issues in Talon of Horus but that's just to big a spoiler for me to divulge here.

Edit: Or rather that was the case Codex Black Legion claims they are actually quite chummy with him (with the exception of Magnus who is sulking) and they have all rewarded him in various ways to assist his 13th Black Crusade.

[Katharon]

http://wh40k.lexicanum.com/mediawiki/images/e/e9/HuronGR.jpg

"Don't mind me, I'm only the Tyrant of Badab and control enough Astartes/Space Marines to rival a legion..."

[grimmas]

Ahh yes but is he going to defend Terra from the Black Legion and even though his rules claim he is a veteran of The Long War he very much isn't. Its also unlikely he has a legions worth, sizeable as his forces are.

[nuclearfeet]

They work for him.

It's mentioned that he a bested them all (but it isn't detailed how) and they have sworn fealty to him. In essence they're his *****es. I doubt they're very happy about it but let's face it they were never happy about anything. It is noted that they are only limited help in the long war though as they are tied very much to whims of their patrons rather than to their own desires. They're also daemons which also limits their usefulness in real space hence the Dark Gods need for Abaddon.

They're unwilling servants but judging by Angron's appearance in The Emperor's Gift far more powerful than they were in life, their influence is limited by being warp entities but trey are servants none the less.

Abaddon very much gets over his daddy issues in Talon of Horus but that's just to big a spoiler for me to divulge here.

Edit: Or rather that was the case Codex Black Legion claims they are actually quite chummy with him (with the exception of Magnus who is sulking) and they have all rewarded him in various ways to assist his 13th Black Crusade.

Hmm IIRC I one of the BL books, it was either Storm of Iron or one of the Night Lords novels, it was pretty much the other way around. It is mentioned in passing that Abaddon beseeched each of the daemon primarchs for their support in the 13th black crusade(except Magnus who refused to even see him).

[grimmas]

Hmm IIRC I one of the BL books, it was either Storm of Iron or one of the Night Lords novels, it was pretty much the other way around. It is mentioned in passing that Abaddon beseeched each of the daemon primarchs for their support in the 13th black crusade(except Magnus who refused to even see him).

Yeah it is different dependent on the source. The end result is the same though the Daemon Primarchs are on board.

[Jmaximum]

Knowing his luck Abbadon will get to Terra and blow it up, causing the Emperor to instantly reincarnate, bring back the loyalist primarchs and drop kick him and the traitors back into the Eye.


.....creating Sigamrines?

I'll let myself out.

[White Tiger88]

.....creating Sigamrines?

I'll let myself out.

................

You should feel bad for that. :eek:

[Denzark]

Grimmas

Good topic, well argued - doctrinally. The only part I don't get... is why the factors which have seen him defeated in Episodes 1-12 of the Black Crusade, don't apply here. After all, he had the Black Legion then. I don't know if Black Library has changed up the fluff, but I'm not aware his preparation/concentration - is better for number 13.

It may be that the Imperium is more distracted - but Cadia is sort of tailor made as a choke point - if Abbadon has been increasing his ability to deliver offensive effect, sure as sure the Cadian gate has been increasing its defences.

Further, the ability of a legion to fight as a legion - with all the advantages you describe so well - it has to get planetside. I don't think Legionnaire ship masters are any better per se than fully implanted humans - some of the description of Imp Navy Captains almost make them seem as built in their command thrones as a Dune Guild Navigator in his tank. I think the Imp Navy is a massive show stopper even before he gets on the ground.

Finally, planning wise, it would seem that Chapters within HH legions had different styles and expertise, and these were brought under Legion command. Whilst there is undoubted benefits to unified command of a formed unit, there is no reason why the superhuman minds of marines wouldn't be nearly as efficient when sevaral disparate chapters operate under 1 commander - Grimnar or Dante come to mind - the doctrine they use are not unknown to each other and any how, I expect they practise mission command - tell me what objective to take, not how to. So to some extent the chapter's expertise is irrelevant - because a strategic genius like Dante or Grimnar would not use Raven Guard to defend when he has Imperial Fists.

[grimmas]

Glad you enjoyed it Denzark

There has been a bit of a development on the previous Black Crusades. The idea that Abaddon was defeated is from the imperial perspective and in reality they were never supposed to defeat the imperium but rather specific campaigns designed to lead up to the 13th which will be the finishing blow. Also he never had as powerful a force as he does now. The Black Legion is at its strongest and all the other Legions swear fealty to him so he is in a much more powerful position. Likewise as you mention the Imprium has never been as weak. They are under threat for more than ever before, Tau, Tyranids and Necrons weren't even active in the Galaxy for most of the previous Black Crusades for example.

Yep the fleet is the Imperium's best chance but I see it that Abaddon has the juice with the warp to shut it down to imperial forces severely hampering them. Yep Cadia is an issue but he did manage to bypass it to wage the Gothic War I'm sure he can mange it again. He also has the Planet Killer and activated Blackstone fortresses which add massive planet/system destroying power. Also he intends to use the slaughter at Cadia as a mass Sacrifice to enlarge the Eye to provide a massive amount of Daemons to aid his cause. And destroy the pylons to allow this to happen. I also keep forgetting that he has launched the 13th and destroyed the most of the Cadian systems within hours and has the planet surrounded (Black Legion codex)

I'd agree that Grimnar or Dante would be able to adapt its just that Abaddon and his Lieutenants will be better at it. Also if Abaddon unleaded the Legion style war I envisage it will be a type of war Dante et al have never experienced which will leave them trying to react and adapt by which time it'll be too late.


Of course this would all be mute if the imperium still had a military like it did during the crusade (even one half the size) but then again it would all be mute because they'd have scoured the galaxy of all their enemies. But they won't do it because they are following the codex.

[Mikhail233]

If I remember rightly didn't the Planet Killer get destroyed during the gothic wars due to massive amounts of long range torpedo fire?
Also we're completely forgetting a rather large factor here, The Eldar, while they're not allied with the Imperium they're not going to sit around and allow chaos to take over the galaxy given that the more power Slaneesh has the more likely the Eldar are doomed.
The Eldar has better mobility than any other faction in 40k due to the webway, also the Chaos gods aren't all powerful even in the EoT this is evidenced by the ability of the Eldar to constantly show up and harvest spirit stones and leave before the Chaos Gods can do anything about it.
It's going to be a lot harder for Abaddon to push all the way to Terra with the Eldar constantly sniping and raiding his forces, another factor is the Harlequins but they would be doing much the same thing as the Eldar.
Also I don't think the Chaos gods can just shut down the warp to the people they don't like, if they could i'm pretty sure they would have done it far earlier than now, hell Slaneesh would have done it during the fall of the Eldar and wiped them all out.
The thing about Chaos gods is all the fluff points towards them not being true "gods" at all, merely extremely powerful beings that inhabit the warp, that's why they're so fickle about handing out power, they don't want anyone to have more than they do

[grimmas]

Nope the Planet Killer is A'OK Abaddon is much more careful with his super weapons than your average SciFi villain.

As to the Eldar I take it you haven't read the HH series? Legion in particular suggest that their plan for
defeating chaos doesn't involve aiding the imperium (I'll say no more as there be spoilers). They do have the Web way which does mean that they can move without worrying about the denizens of the warp. The trouble with the Eldar is they are really the bonus ball of the 40K universe they aren't any good on their own, if the imperium can't get to somewhere the Eldar aren't any good on their own. That's of course if they will even bother to help which isn't that likely given what went on during the Heresy. The Eldar don't have the military might to directly affect the outcome anyway they might be able to guide and alter events but when all out war starts they need to step back and that's where we're at.

The Chaos Gods are very powerful warp entities. They are a more traditional form of God who feed off the prayer/sacrifices of their followers in a similar to the Norse/Greek/Roman mythology, they are even more capricious though. They have shut down the warp previously most notably the Ruinstorm during the Horus Heresy. It was something that requires a massive sacrifice to achieve. The Planet Killer and activated Blackstone Fortresses could achieve this level of sacrifice which much less effort than it took for Horus' forces.

Edit: I'm loving that this thread got ressurected by someone having an dig at AoS. Who'd have thought that'd have a positive outcome.

[Sicarius182Uk]

Abaddon won't win. Chaos is in its nature divided. The Emperors strength is in unity. The Imperium stands through everything. The palace withstood a similar threat in the Heresy when Terra was blockaded. The essence of the Emperor is an archetypal strategist. Defense is his bread and butter. All he has to do is move his forces accordingly to counteract any moves by Chaos. This is an eternal struggle after all. As the mantra says "There is no peace amongst the stars only war, eternity except for the laughter of bloodthirsty gods" Grimmas I like your quote about knowledge & wisdom. "Knowledge is power guard it well" =][=