A Good, Educational Read:

[Caitsidhe]

I think this article sums a lot of things up by someone with no internal (i.e. Player or Employee) bias:

http://www.iii.co.uk/news-opinion/richard-beddard/games-workshop%E2%80%99s-revenue-problem

[Alaric]

Good find. Interesting read and more believable than the last one I read elsewhere. Got a chuckle out of the "no discounts for shareholders"

[Psychosplodge]

lols and it still boils down to what all the arguments on here end up as - no one has any idea, though its interesting the "experts" have that opinion too though.

[Erik Setzer]

He's had followups. The shareholder meeting referenced there is the one in which he noted the attitude of looking down on games and saying "we don't make toys" (except, well, they DO make toys, which is something they used to remember). It was a depressing read. Over times as he's looked more and more into GW's reports, he's been less convinced, culminating in the latest:

http://www.iii.co.uk/news-opinion/richard-beddard/games-workshop%3A-denial

That's not an uplifting article, and it's difficult for the hardliners to claim this guy has no clue what he's talking about (won't stop them trying) or that he has some kind of agenda (which is funny, because he's a shareholder, so if he's doing something to try to hurt the company, he's hurting himself in the process).

[Caitsidhe]

He's had followups. The shareholder meeting referenced there is the one in which he noted the attitude of looking down on games and saying "we don't make toys" (except, well, they DO make toys, which is something they used to remember). It was a depressing read. Over times as he's looked more and more into GW's reports, he's been less convinced, culminating in the latest:

http://www.iii.co.uk/news-opinion/richard-beddard/games-workshop%3A-denial

That's not an uplifting article, and it's difficult for the hardliners to claim this guy has no clue what he's talking about (won't stop them trying) or that he has some kind of agenda (which is funny, because he's a shareholder, so if he's doing something to try to hurt the company, he's hurting himself in the process).

I was going to wait a few days to post that one, to give people time to comment on (or spin) the first one. But since you already put it out there, we might as well get down to the nitty gritty and discuss the follow up article. He knows exactly what he is talking about. The key thing is that Games Workshop is to blame for its own misfortune. It was their game to win or lose. The competition to them now exists in strength (and growing) because of the niche they left. Paper cuts; they are dying by self inflicted paper cuts. It is a slow, silly way to go. Fortunately for Games Workshop, they still have the means to turn things around. The only question is whether or not they will have the stones to get rid of their Board.

[Wolfshade]

Beddard sounds like an objective fan. He wants GW to be better and get the board moving in the right direction .

Very telling is the quote
[Rowntree]In my opinion the greatest risk is the same one that we repeat each year, namely, management. So long as we have great people we will be fine. Problems will arise if the board allows egos and private agendas to rule. I will do my utmost to ensure that this does not happen on my watch.[/quote]

Which I think is very near the mark and from my awareness of GW HQ movements. I hope things are different, but I think Kirby has started believing his spin for too long.

[Erik Setzer]

I know people think I'm just a GW basher, but I try to approach my view of them objectively, and as an "investor" in my own ways I'd rather they stick around. It's why I get so upset about their moves (and also I can recognize better how bad some of them are from a professional viewpoint). Well, also, I'm a bit too passionate about anything I get involved in. But yeah, I want them to get smart, wise up, and realize they could be the "big dog," but right now they're fading, and if they don't watch out, they'll lose the top billing that they're trying to show off so much.

On the other hand, while I hope GW wises up and gets back in the right direction, I like the competition. I think competition helps everyone, and having more options for gamers is good. One of the problems with the hobby in general when GW *was* making the smart moves is that GW darned near created a monopoly. Other games that came along like Warzone, Chronopia, Confrontation, etc. got chewed up and tossed aside. Warmachine/Hordes is the only one that stuck around, and without anyone but GW to go against, they started following some of GW's worst tendencies, like with pricing. (Though they can at least try to use the excuse of more expensive materials... bit of a cop out, but they can try.) Now we have Warlord, Mantic, even FFG (in its own way), getting heavily into the game. Mantic's not as big as the others yet, but they're making enough moves they'll stick around and grow. Warlord's going well, branching out a bit. The really amusing thing with those two companies is they have a lot of talent from GW's rise to the top.

The "best" thing that could happen is a year of sales dropping so hard that profit either disappears or drops to almost nothing, something harsh enough to force a change of direction. Sometimes a company needs a jolt to wake up.

[Charon]

Got this from Facebook as Tuomas Pirinen posted the same article on his profile.

From Rick Priestley:

I know Mike :) Sadly I think the days when the games themselves actually meant anything to GW are well and truly over - they are having a bit of a panic at the moment and revisiting the idea of making games - well revisiting old games at any rate - but their driver is the search for a viable commercial model rather than a passion for games and gaming. I don't think there's much of that goes on! Oh well!

When somebody told him GW need him back:


There is not enough money in the world... !

Tuomas Pirinen (when talking about the rise in profits in the "golden years")


And Rick was the most instrumental person and the secret sauce behind this huge success. And I will stand behind this statement against any man or woman who says otherwise.

Tuomas Pirinen

I do think GTs and Outriders were a massive part of the long-term success.

[Alaric]

Beddard sounds like an objective fan. He wants GW to be better and get the board moving in the right direction .

Very telling is the quote
[Rowntree]In my opinion the greatest risk is the same one that we repeat each year, namely, management. So long as we have great people we will be fine. Problems will arise if the board allows egos and private agendas to rule. I will do my utmost to ensure that this does not happen on my watch.

Which I think is very near the mark and from my awareness of GW HQ movements. I hope things are different, but I think Kirby has started believing his spin for too long.[/QUOTE]

I came up with the same view. Well said, better than I coulda put into words lol.


I know people think I'm just a GW basher, but I try to approach my view of them objectively, and as an "investor" in my own ways I'd rather they stick around. It's why I get so upset about their moves (and also I can recognize better how bad some of them are from a professional viewpoint). Well, also, I'm a bit too passionate about anything I get involved in. But yeah, I want them to get smart, wise up, and realize they could be the "big dog," but right now they're fading, and if they don't watch out, they'll lose the top billing that they're trying to show off so much.

On the other hand, while I hope GW wises up and gets back in the right direction, I like the competition. I think competition helps everyone, and having more options for gamers is good. One of the problems with the hobby in general when GW *was* making the smart moves is that GW darned near created a monopoly. Other games that came along like Warzone, Chronopia, Confrontation, etc. got chewed up and tossed aside. Warmachine/Hordes is the only one that stuck around, and without anyone but GW to go against, they started following some of GW's worst tendencies, like with pricing. (Though they can at least try to use the excuse of more expensive materials... bit of a cop out, but they can try.) Now we have Warlord, Mantic, even FFG (in its own way), getting heavily into the game. Mantic's not as big as the others yet, but they're making enough moves they'll stick around and grow. Warlord's going well, branching out a bit. The really amusing thing with those two companies is they have a lot of talent from GW's rise to the top.

The "best" thing that could happen is a year of sales dropping so hard that profit either disappears or drops to almost nothing, something harsh enough to force a change of direction. Sometimes a company needs a jolt to wake up.

Member waaaaay back in our first sparring match on zee frontpage? No? Me neither :P but I have a hazy recollection and it's nice to see how much you have changed :) and I agree with you this time. I maintain my view back then, same as now: GW will not learn until they lose significant amounts of money, which STILL hasn't happened. One day tho...maybe one day they will get their poop in a group and turn it around...just need that one catastrophic year...

More expensive materials isn't a cop out, I deal with em every day (not resin but raw materials) and they never ever bloody well go down in price, always up. They used to blame the oil companies and now...oil is low...and no backing off of the price, still the same. Jerkfaces.

[Caitsidhe]

My view is the same it has been for the last four years. Games Workshop has lost its way. It started as a company that makes GAMES. It is right there in the name. They were partnered with another company that made models. They took Citadel in and started making the models themselves. While there will always be a percentage of their customers who do buy merely because they enjoy modeling, the only real growth potential is in those who play the game. There will always be more gamers than pure hobby fanatics. In fact the numbers of those who play the game as their primary motivation probably doubles or triples (or more) the other side. Then there are those that do both.

From a marketing standpoint, they needed clean, balanced rules. A solid rule set serves both the purely competitive gamers and the casual gamer. In short, those who enjoy games want one where their input matters. Those who don't care about the game's outcome aren't affected one way or the other by having balance. It is thus, the only logical choice, to do the balanced system which doesn't lose you any customers. Games Workshop did the opposite. They have been systematically making their games worse. They are reaping exactly what they have sown. They want to define themselves not as a game company anymore. It is delusional, but that is what they want to do.

[Erik Setzer]

More expensive materials isn't a cop out, I deal with em every day (not resin but raw materials) and they never ever bloody well go down in price, always up. They used to blame the oil companies and now...oil is low...and no backing off of the price, still the same. Jerkfaces.

In PP's case, I think it's something of a "cop out." I think they *could* do lower prices and would be fine with it, but GW kept shoving their own prices up even as they switched to cheaper materials, and without any serious competition for GW and PP, they just started matching GW for pricing. It's one of the things that turns me off from getting into WM/H. Seems to be working for them so far, so, eh, okay, but I'm still not a fan of that pricing.

(See, guys, I can be critical of other companies!)

[Alaric]

Not disagreeing on the PP front as it was a no brainer they would raise prices. It still makes me laugh when I think about win that game first got super duper popular and the number one thing was "its so cheap"
I more meant in general that materials can very much affect how much things cost. I think they are just raising the prices because they can see the potential for even more money. But like GW, who knows really.

[Erik Setzer]

My view is the same it has been for the last four years. Games Workshop has lost its way. It started as a company that makes GAMES. It is right there in the name. They were partnered with another company that made models. They took Citadel in and started making the models themselves. While there will always be a percentage of their customers who do buy merely because they enjoy modeling, the only real growth potential is in those who play the game. There will always be more gamers than pure hobby fanatics. In fact the numbers of those who play the game as their primary motivation probably doubles or triples (or more) the other side. Then there are those that do both.

From a marketing standpoint, they needed clean, balanced rules. A solid rule set serves both the purely competitive gamers and the casual gamer. In short, those who enjoy games want one where their input matters. Those who don't care about the game's outcome aren't affected one way or the other by having balance. It is thus, the only logical choice, to do the balanced system which doesn't lose you any customers. Games Workshop did the opposite. They have been systematically making their games worse. They are reaping exactly what they have sown. They want to define themselves not as a game company anymore. It is delusional, but that is what they want to do.

I'm not sure they're even trying to make their games worse, I think it's just a side effect of the management running off the best talent. (I think that's also showing up in some of the recent model releases. Not all of them, certainly, but some are rather questionable.) I mean, heck, they've got a job posting out right now to bring in another games writer. They won't name who's doing the work now, and almost all of the "big names" from the company's rise to power are working elsewhere. Jervis is the last holdout, but does he actually really do anything these days?

And then the whole thing with "Create a model kit, then try to figure out some way to put it in the games." That doesn't quite work. You need a better plan in place.

It's not just the products, though. It's so many things about how they operate. One-man stores can't really work, because as noted, there's no way one guy can handle multiple customers at the same time. I'm still not sure if the local shop was actually allowed to have the help, but the old manager would bring in a helper on really busy days like special events. Strangely, though, one time he asked a guy taking photos to make sure none ended up online with the guy who was helping, suggesting the manager would get in trouble if they found out he brought in someone to help during a busy day he couldn't possibly have handled alone. The guy he brought in was an emergency fill-in when he couldn't make it in, so he was probably an official GW employee (albeit parttime), but it seems they didn't want to pay a second person if one person was in the shop. Yet without that second person, the shop would have been a mess. There were people playing games, people shopping, getting special limited items, asking questions, potential customers stopping by who needed to be talked to, all kinds of stuff.

The bunker mentality is also not healthy for a company. It wasn't just that they had social media (briefly) or their own forums (not really amazing, but hey, they were there), and now have neither. You used to have access to some of the more important people. And they ran all kinds of events to drum up interest. Those events were huge for keeping people engaged. You'd see forums filling up with posts eagerly poring over every piece of information that came out, every slightly blurry photo of upcoming products. But now they seem to want to keep everything secret even from their own employees (it was so sad seeing a manager relying on rumor websites to give him a hint of what's coming), and don't want to engage the customers at all.

I still think they can spot what worked during the growing years and return to that. I hope they do. I don't want them to disappear. I want to keep playing GW games until I'm an old man shouting insults at my opponent as my Orks crush his weedy Beakies.

[grimmas]

Thing is white metal (pewter) is much more expensive than lead being as though Tin is sooooo bloody expensive. Trouble with resin is that it requires much more quality control which means more staff who are pricey. I've found all the companies that use it to be a bit hit and miss on the quality control front.

Trouble is with any analysis of GW is that they are totally unique no other company is doing or has done what they do. There's no other publicly own miniature companies with revenue of over £100M. It's all a bit hit and miss there's no real formula to it. Though it is interesting that FFG pretty much lifted some of their policies since they were bought out.

The thing that annoys me about PP is that they are always billed as the great hope but they are so far behind the times making models with mixed materials is very early 90s (especially with materials as different as metal and resin). I'd like them try and push the envelope to get some proper competition going which is always good for the consumer.

On the rules v miniatures thing the real issue is that rules regardless of how good don't really make much money in the long run they'll only really be splash injection (that splash can be big such as the case of D&D by that still went down the toilet and only now exists as a vanity project). Miniatures are what makes the money which is way GW pays it sculptors much more than their other staff. Yes the rules are the vehicle to sell those miniatures but it is all about selling the miniatures. Look how much FFGs revenue went up when they started selling X-Wing miniatures.

One man stores are pants but they do seem to be reintroducing larger stores where they can be supported.

[Erik Setzer]

PP went from being "the alternative" to being way too similar, at least in pricing and all. They still seem to have better customer outreach, so there's that.

Rules certainly help sell a game. X-Wing Miniatures has solid rules that are updated often to try to keep balance, and you get everything you need to use a model right in the package (and it's already painted). X-Wing's a very different model to GW or others like PP, Mantic, Warlord. Though, amusingly, Mantic's borrowing a bit of their playbook with Walking Dead, selling a $50 core box and $20 expansions with characters. The miniatures aren't prepainted, but are otherwise ready to go out of the box. While I understand people aren't enthused with some of Mantic's models (particularly the older ones), they've done a pretty good job of trying to remain a gaming company for gamers and borrow ideas from other companies, branching out to cover a variety of areas. Kings of War, Dreadball, Walking Dead, Dungeon Saga, four different kids of games with their own way of selling stuff, and it seems to be working for them so far. It reminds me of early GW branching out, even going so far as to team up with Hasbro for Battlemasters. Modern GW would scoff at such a thing, but it was a good way to bring in a bit of extra money. (And the miniatures were actually pretty good. Plus you got a tower for scenery.)

Ah, I'm getting on a bit of a tangent... but it's so hard not to look back on times when we had games like HeroQuest and Warhammer Quest (Dungeon Saga's sort of a spiritual successor), Talisman, Space Hulk, Space Crusade, Tyranid Attack, Space Marine, Man'O'War, Necromunda, Mordheim, Battlefleet Gothic; a monthly magazine filled with articles, battle reports, sometimes cardstock stuff; multiple events; a website with hobby articles; a side magazine with unofficial rules and stuff from both game designers and fans alike; the Outrider program; and so much more stuff. Bah. Nostalgia. Really gets ya. Not surprisingly, those things were almost all around in the 90s and early 2000s, the time Games Workshop grew at its fastest to get the practical monopoly it was. So maybe it's not just nostalgia glasses. Maybe there *was* something to having a diversified product line and devoting time to supporting it.

[grimmas]

Well those things did all exist, though I'd argue that GW biggest growth actually came with their tie in with LoTR. Well that's certainly how it felt at the time, trouble is they overstretched have been trying to stead the ship somewhat. I would point out that other games are coming back so I hoping will be seeing GW bringing stuff back in a more controlled manner to prevent that crash happening again. But the trouble with comparison is that GW isn't a new company Also Id say that a antics reliance on Kickstarter show just how difficult it is to predict what the Wargaming industry is actually going to go for.

Yep rules do help to sell games but it's the modes that make the money. I'm sure you've noticed that X-wing stuff does comes with miniatures. It is all a balancing act isn't it. PP have had to come up with all sorts of stuff to encourage people to buy more once they've hit 50 pts , side armies in tournaments and the like. Thing is if all any off them sold was rules they wouldn't be doing to well.

[Erik Setzer]

It's the growth they had leading to that, that helped them get the LotR franchise. Check the original article and look at the growth in the 1990s. It's insane. They expanded to ten times what they were before they even got the LotR stuff. That gave them a short-term bump, but that's it. They never really pushed it that much (wasted opportunity, oh well).

[grimmas]

Yeah there is a definite spike 2000-2005 but yeah they were growing before. I think It does show a certain amount of capitalisation they didn't continue with the same level of revune for sure but they didnt fall back to the same levels they started at.

It's worth mentioning that the upward trend did seem to start wirh the release of 3rd Ed 40K rather than anything. Which is interesting when you consider the willing and nashing of teeth that occurs about that release elsewhere.

[Erik Setzer]

Eh, my biggest issues with 3rd edition were the wiping out of all the rules (again), and, more important, the homogenizing of the background, to the point Orks were relegated to being green skins savages with nothing interesting about them, a point that bugged me to no end (especially as people kept arguing that with me and acting like my clan paint jobs were wrong). Otherwise, it wasn't bad. Once it got going, it was nice. Books that were worth it, lots of optional armies and stuff... it was nice. Get over the system shock of rules change (at least they kept the core concepts in place), and it was good.

[Psychosplodge]

lmao love this. from spikey bits (http://www.spikeybits.com/2016/01/a-toy-guys-reaction-to-gw-in-the-toy-store.html)


Yea okay, it’s a doomsayer article. Like everyone else, I’m tired of reading stuff on Bell of Lost Souls about how GW is going to collapse because the quarterly report says they’re snorting rails off a hooker’s arse in the office at Nottingham instead of doing X,Y, or Z with their money like a reasonable business should.

[Erik Setzer]

Interesting read.

Now cue the commenters saying that guy doesn't know what he's talking about when he talks about selling GW stuff in toy stores, like how investors don't know anything about economics. *Sigh.*

[Psychosplodge]

I think he had a very interesting viewpoint. And I suppose he's as "in the know" as a portfolio manager. Definitely a fascinating read.

[Alaric]

Interesting read.

Now cue the commenters saying that guy doesn't know what he's talking about when he talks about selling GW stuff in toy stores, like how investors don't know anything about economics. *Sigh.*

LOL. Ask and ye shall receive. Spiky Bits did an article Splodge linked a page back saying pretty much that. He basically says moms wont buy them for their kids and gw has no business doin it this late in the game. Funny read. My favorite part is when he calls himself a professional. Actually laughed out loud at that.

[Erik Setzer]

LOL. Ask and ye shall receive. Spiky Bits did an article Splodge linked a page back saying pretty much that. He basically says moms wont buy them for their kids and gw has no business doin it this late in the game. Funny read. My favorite part is when he calls himself a professional. Actually laughed out loud at that.

But he's got a point. I can't remember seeing model kits in department stores in a long time. Not sure about toy stores, but I don't think they're in there, either. I'm sure that varies by region. It seems, though, that even building kits aren't as in demand as they used to be, with LEGO mainly working because of their movies and video games to help drum up interest in their products. And given recent trends toward being terrified of little Billy holding anything sharp or using glue (IIRC, there are laws regarding glue, which is why GW doesn't toss some in with their starter sets.)

GW's got an interesting idea, but I think it'll work better in hobby shops than toy stores. But that's more their target anyway, get the young modelers interested. One major concern with putting their products, even entry level, into toy stores is that it's effectively an admission that you know, despite your words, that you sell toys. (We all know they do, but they've gotten a pretty snotty attitude about admitting it.)

Yeah... the glue thing does still seem to be an issue, in the US at least. Doing a quick search, it seems there's still states where selling glue to minors or people under 16 isn't legal (though some give a specific exception if the glue is to be used with modeling, which you can cover by packing it in the box). So that might be a concern to deal with. I'd think their legal eagles are looking into that, though, to make sure they comply.

[Morgrim]

I think it's also the type of glue. Superglue could be seen as a health hazard since it's easy to injure yourself with it if you get it in your eyes or glue yourself to an object and try to tear it off. Some other glues can be sniffed to get high.

Plastic glue is 'safe' though, from memory, so they should be okay with that. It'll mean the kits can't have any metal or resin parts though.

[Wolfshade]

GW used to have their stuff in other stores. It was amusing I could buy boxes from virign which was next door to GW at a cheaper price :) and the box set was included in argos' catalogue

[Alaric]

But he's got a point. I can't remember seeing model kits in department stores in a long time. Not sure about toy stores, but I don't think they're in there, either. I'm sure that varies by region. It seems, though, that even building kits aren't as in demand as they used to be, with LEGO mainly working because of their movies and video games to help drum up interest in their products. And given recent trends toward being terrified of little Billy holding anything sharp or using glue (IIRC, there are laws regarding glue, which is why GW doesn't toss some in with their starter sets.)

GW's got an interesting idea, but I think it'll work better in hobby shops than toy stores. But that's more their target anyway, get the young modelers interested. One major concern with putting their products, even entry level, into toy stores is that it's effectively an admission that you know, despite your words, that you sell toys. (We all know they do, but they've gotten a pretty snotty attitude about admitting it.)

Yeah... the glue thing does still seem to be an issue, in the US at least. Doing a quick search, it seems there's still states where selling glue to minors or people under 16 isn't legal (though some give a specific exception if the glue is to be used with modeling, which you can cover by packing it in the box). So that might be a concern to deal with. I'd think their legal eagles are looking into that, though, to make sure they comply.

I totally agree he has a point. I just thought it was pretty funny that you got exactly what you were joking about. I knew a couple of people who sniffed glue and it's not a pretty sight. Watery eye, sniffling all the time, dumb as bricks. I don't see why they don't put glue in with the sets if somebody want something bad enough you'll find a way to get it but I see where they're coming from on a legal standpoint.
Yeah Morgrim it may be safe but I doubt it would stop them from trying lol I can just picture a kid walking around with one of his nostrils glued shut..

[Erik Setzer]

I totally agree he has a point. I just thought it was pretty funny that you got exactly what you were joking about. I knew a couple of people who sniffed glue and it's not a pretty sight. Watery eye, sniffling all the time, dumb as bricks. I don't see why they don't put glue in with the sets if somebody want something bad enough you'll find a way to get it but I see where they're coming from on a legal standpoint.
Yeah Morgrim it may be safe but I doubt it would stop them from trying lol I can just picture a kid walking around with one of his nostrils glued shut..

Yeah, laws are not as effective as people think at stopping the people who want to do stupid/awful things... but that's too close to venturing into politics talk.

On a lighter note, I think the most amusing thing I've seen with super glue was when a kid (I think he was late teens, maybe mid teens?) tipped over a bottle of brush-on super glue in his lap, and then, in a panic, thought it'd somehow be helpful to spray it with zip-kicker. For those who haven't been introduced to that combo, zip-kicked superglue heats up a lot really, really fast, so he just made himself feel like his lap was on fire (and made sure his pants were ruined). Poor kid went running screaming for the bathroom.

Little bit o' knowledge is a dangerous thing.