ChahDresh
09-11-2014, 07:30 PM
TL;DR version: Don't put Pask in a Vanquisher.
I was doing some mathhammer recently on the Leman Russ Vanquisher. I've never been a big fan of the Vanquisher; it's ceiling isn't high enough to justify how low its floor is, it's not versatile, and it's wasted if your opponent isn't packing anything AV13 or higher. Maybe in a Knight-heavy meta the Vanquisher can see more play; it's durable enough that you can put it "on an island" with minimal support and hopefully get to a different arc from your main body to force the Knight to make difficult shield choices. That aside, it's distinctly suboptimal.
How does this change with Pask?
Answer: somehow, the Vanquisher (relatively) gets even worse.
Rerolling hits on the Vanquisher cannon is great; with BS4 you're pushing your hit chances to 8/9. Rerolling armor penetration rolls when you're already rolling 2d6+8 is even better. Your ceiling remains one penetrating hit, but you're at least likely to get that penetrating hit, right?
Well, sort of. Against AV12-- all those Wave Serpents and Chimeras out there-- your rerolls net you a 22/27 to at least strip a hull point, or about seven out of nine. In a typical game you're looking at four hull points. Not a terrific return on investment. You've probably figured out by now that Pask in a Punisher is pretty nasty, but just how nasty might surprise you-- against that same AV12 target, Pask's Punisher cannon will rip off about four hull points in one round of shooting.
Now obviously you're playing a very different army with Pask in a Punisher as opposed to Pask in a Vanquisher. PunPask really likes screening Conscripts to help keep him out of trouble and has different preferences for wingmen compared to VanqPask. So that firepower difference might not be worth it for some players. I get that. Which is why the Exterminator is actually a better compromise than you might think. Against the same AV12 target, ExtermPask takes off two hull points a round-- fitting neatly between the Punisher and the Vanq in terms of damage. However, the range difference between a Vanquisher cannon and the Exterminator autocannon is not terribly significant on most boards. 48" range really is quite nice, and you can draw a bead on the target of your choice without much trouble on your typical 4x6 table. For double the Vanquisher's HP output, that's a very small sacrifice.
But the Vanquisher's AP2, it can cause things to explode! Yes, yes it can. Clearly this isn't something you can count on, but how often will it happen? Answer: for 3HP targets, roughly every third vehicle you shoot at you will cause to Explode! before you hull point it out. Your chances of scoring an early kill on a 4HP target is 4/7, and since 4HP targets tend to be really rough, that's not inconsiderable.
So let's do a hypothetical sequence of nine shots for a VanqPask against AV12 (the equivalent, more or less, of two games' worth of shooting). Seven of those will result in damaging hits, with one being a glance, meaning six pens. One of those will be an Explodes! result, but since we can't control whether we get that on the first, second, or third HP, we'll average the savings to one hull point. Therefore, nine rounds shooting = eight hull points taken.
ExtermPask strips eighteen hull points in the same time frame.
Does this discount secondary weapons? It does, but that's because those are just as good for each hull. Jink and cover saves average out also... although VanqPask has much higher variance than ExtermPask; the more dice you throw the less you suffer the whims of the dice gods. Does this assume there are fresh targets for ExtermPask to fire at every time? Sort of; in actual gameplay, you're more likely to run out of armored targets to shoot at (or have your opponent hide his vehicles from yours) and be forced to fire at lesser targets, although that afflicts both Pask variants. And, obviously, ExtermPask has more versatility than VanqPask.
But who cares? you might say. Who cares if VanqPask is not as good against AV12? You don't buy VanqPask to shoot at AV12, you buy it to shoot at the really heavy stuff!
Two rebuttals. First... that target selection criteria is part of the problem with VanqPask. There are a lot of armies out there that just don't field heavy armor, and those that do aren't always your higher-priority targets. (Against Adepta Sororitas, for example, it's usually more important to go after AV11 Immolators than AV13 Exorcists.) When you field a unit that exclusively hunts a particular foe, you always run the risk of that foe not being there and having to use your tools sub-optimally. The Vanquisher's supposed niche is unfortunately narrow in this regard.
Second... VanqPask isn't even your best choice against AV14.
Once more, rending serves as the great equalizer, especially combined with Pask's innate rerolls. PunPask averages a whopping 2.26 HPs a turn against AV14. Naturally those are glances, and glances are not as powerful as pens. But pens aren't more powerful enough to make up for the difference: VanqPask gets only 16/21 HPs a turn, with only 3/4 penetrating hits a turn. If we incorporate explosions as additional HPs done, that puts us all the way up to... one HP a turn.
(Here's why: an Explodes! result can inflict 3, 2, 1, or 0 additional HPs' worth of damage, for an average of 1.5 additional HPs taken. (Assuming a 4HP target.) It does so only on 1/6 of pens. Therefore, we may express VanqPask's damage done as: 16/21 + (3/4*1/6*1.5)= .95, or basically 1.)
Fine, fine, we get it, PunPask does the most damage even against heavy armor. But he's still range-limited! I wanna shoot from downtown!
Then let's turn once more to the Exterminator.
Thanks to Rending, the Exterminator autocannon can hold its own against AV14, stripping 88/81 HPs a turn. And if you're looking for the mission-kill ability of pens, rejoice-- ExtermPask yields .72 pens per turn. In other words: even against AV14, ExtermPask strips more HPs than VanqPask, and yields about the same number of pens, at the sacrifice of inconsequential amounts of range... all while being VASTLY better against all other targets.
One more consideration: the numbers I ran for PunPask above assume Pask is not getting Preferred Enemy at the time. In these scenarios, PunPask is the only vehicle of the three that would benefit from PE or Prescience, as the Vanq and Exterm innately re-roll misses. If you add PE back in to the Punisher, its advantage becomes even more grotesque.
I haven't mentioned the other Russ variants. This is because the other Russ variants tend to prefer shooting at troops. (Although this can be awkward in and of itself since that wastes Pask's ability to re-roll failed armor pen rolls.) Out of the remaining Russ variants, the only one that can be considered primarily anti-tank might be the Demolisher, but its 24" range matches that of the much stronger Punisher.
By the way: if you put Pask in a Punisher, do yourself a favor and go lascannon/multi-melta. Some people still equip him with heavy bolters because they're the same strength as the Punisher cannon, but that's wasteful. Rending makes Pask want to shoot at the heaviest target available-- vehicles, monstrous creatures, and heavy infantry. When you shoot at those targets, heavy bolters are wasted. You'll get way more mileage out of the heavier guns, and the multi-meltas match the Punisher cannon's range profile anyway.
In summary: Pask in a Punisher does by far the most damage, but if you want a bit more range while retaining solid anti-tank, the Exterminator beats the Vanquisher hands down while being much more versatile.
I was doing some mathhammer recently on the Leman Russ Vanquisher. I've never been a big fan of the Vanquisher; it's ceiling isn't high enough to justify how low its floor is, it's not versatile, and it's wasted if your opponent isn't packing anything AV13 or higher. Maybe in a Knight-heavy meta the Vanquisher can see more play; it's durable enough that you can put it "on an island" with minimal support and hopefully get to a different arc from your main body to force the Knight to make difficult shield choices. That aside, it's distinctly suboptimal.
How does this change with Pask?
Answer: somehow, the Vanquisher (relatively) gets even worse.
Rerolling hits on the Vanquisher cannon is great; with BS4 you're pushing your hit chances to 8/9. Rerolling armor penetration rolls when you're already rolling 2d6+8 is even better. Your ceiling remains one penetrating hit, but you're at least likely to get that penetrating hit, right?
Well, sort of. Against AV12-- all those Wave Serpents and Chimeras out there-- your rerolls net you a 22/27 to at least strip a hull point, or about seven out of nine. In a typical game you're looking at four hull points. Not a terrific return on investment. You've probably figured out by now that Pask in a Punisher is pretty nasty, but just how nasty might surprise you-- against that same AV12 target, Pask's Punisher cannon will rip off about four hull points in one round of shooting.
Now obviously you're playing a very different army with Pask in a Punisher as opposed to Pask in a Vanquisher. PunPask really likes screening Conscripts to help keep him out of trouble and has different preferences for wingmen compared to VanqPask. So that firepower difference might not be worth it for some players. I get that. Which is why the Exterminator is actually a better compromise than you might think. Against the same AV12 target, ExtermPask takes off two hull points a round-- fitting neatly between the Punisher and the Vanq in terms of damage. However, the range difference between a Vanquisher cannon and the Exterminator autocannon is not terribly significant on most boards. 48" range really is quite nice, and you can draw a bead on the target of your choice without much trouble on your typical 4x6 table. For double the Vanquisher's HP output, that's a very small sacrifice.
But the Vanquisher's AP2, it can cause things to explode! Yes, yes it can. Clearly this isn't something you can count on, but how often will it happen? Answer: for 3HP targets, roughly every third vehicle you shoot at you will cause to Explode! before you hull point it out. Your chances of scoring an early kill on a 4HP target is 4/7, and since 4HP targets tend to be really rough, that's not inconsiderable.
So let's do a hypothetical sequence of nine shots for a VanqPask against AV12 (the equivalent, more or less, of two games' worth of shooting). Seven of those will result in damaging hits, with one being a glance, meaning six pens. One of those will be an Explodes! result, but since we can't control whether we get that on the first, second, or third HP, we'll average the savings to one hull point. Therefore, nine rounds shooting = eight hull points taken.
ExtermPask strips eighteen hull points in the same time frame.
Does this discount secondary weapons? It does, but that's because those are just as good for each hull. Jink and cover saves average out also... although VanqPask has much higher variance than ExtermPask; the more dice you throw the less you suffer the whims of the dice gods. Does this assume there are fresh targets for ExtermPask to fire at every time? Sort of; in actual gameplay, you're more likely to run out of armored targets to shoot at (or have your opponent hide his vehicles from yours) and be forced to fire at lesser targets, although that afflicts both Pask variants. And, obviously, ExtermPask has more versatility than VanqPask.
But who cares? you might say. Who cares if VanqPask is not as good against AV12? You don't buy VanqPask to shoot at AV12, you buy it to shoot at the really heavy stuff!
Two rebuttals. First... that target selection criteria is part of the problem with VanqPask. There are a lot of armies out there that just don't field heavy armor, and those that do aren't always your higher-priority targets. (Against Adepta Sororitas, for example, it's usually more important to go after AV11 Immolators than AV13 Exorcists.) When you field a unit that exclusively hunts a particular foe, you always run the risk of that foe not being there and having to use your tools sub-optimally. The Vanquisher's supposed niche is unfortunately narrow in this regard.
Second... VanqPask isn't even your best choice against AV14.
Once more, rending serves as the great equalizer, especially combined with Pask's innate rerolls. PunPask averages a whopping 2.26 HPs a turn against AV14. Naturally those are glances, and glances are not as powerful as pens. But pens aren't more powerful enough to make up for the difference: VanqPask gets only 16/21 HPs a turn, with only 3/4 penetrating hits a turn. If we incorporate explosions as additional HPs done, that puts us all the way up to... one HP a turn.
(Here's why: an Explodes! result can inflict 3, 2, 1, or 0 additional HPs' worth of damage, for an average of 1.5 additional HPs taken. (Assuming a 4HP target.) It does so only on 1/6 of pens. Therefore, we may express VanqPask's damage done as: 16/21 + (3/4*1/6*1.5)= .95, or basically 1.)
Fine, fine, we get it, PunPask does the most damage even against heavy armor. But he's still range-limited! I wanna shoot from downtown!
Then let's turn once more to the Exterminator.
Thanks to Rending, the Exterminator autocannon can hold its own against AV14, stripping 88/81 HPs a turn. And if you're looking for the mission-kill ability of pens, rejoice-- ExtermPask yields .72 pens per turn. In other words: even against AV14, ExtermPask strips more HPs than VanqPask, and yields about the same number of pens, at the sacrifice of inconsequential amounts of range... all while being VASTLY better against all other targets.
One more consideration: the numbers I ran for PunPask above assume Pask is not getting Preferred Enemy at the time. In these scenarios, PunPask is the only vehicle of the three that would benefit from PE or Prescience, as the Vanq and Exterm innately re-roll misses. If you add PE back in to the Punisher, its advantage becomes even more grotesque.
I haven't mentioned the other Russ variants. This is because the other Russ variants tend to prefer shooting at troops. (Although this can be awkward in and of itself since that wastes Pask's ability to re-roll failed armor pen rolls.) Out of the remaining Russ variants, the only one that can be considered primarily anti-tank might be the Demolisher, but its 24" range matches that of the much stronger Punisher.
By the way: if you put Pask in a Punisher, do yourself a favor and go lascannon/multi-melta. Some people still equip him with heavy bolters because they're the same strength as the Punisher cannon, but that's wasteful. Rending makes Pask want to shoot at the heaviest target available-- vehicles, monstrous creatures, and heavy infantry. When you shoot at those targets, heavy bolters are wasted. You'll get way more mileage out of the heavier guns, and the multi-meltas match the Punisher cannon's range profile anyway.
In summary: Pask in a Punisher does by far the most damage, but if you want a bit more range while retaining solid anti-tank, the Exterminator beats the Vanquisher hands down while being much more versatile.