Grey Knight, Heavy Armour 1850

[Halollet]

HQ
Grand Master - 220
Brain Mines, ML2

Coteaz

Elite
Purifier Squad x10 - 260
Incinerator x2, NHammer x2, NHalerd x5
Rides in StormRaven with dreadnought. Drops down and assaults while burninating everything.

Troop
GK Terminators x6 - 265
Rides in LR Crusader with Coteaz, drives up and smashy smashy.

Henchmen Warband x8 - 115
Psyker x1, Death Cult Assassin x3, Crusader x4
Rides in LR with Grandmaster. GM will try and get sanctuary so I have a unit with a 2++ invulnerable save.

Fast Attack
Storm Raven Gunship - 205
TL Multimelta, TL Lascannon
Flys in an nukes transports for assault

Heavy Support

Land Raider - 265
Multi-Melta
Heavy hitter

Land Raider Crusader - 270
Storm Bolter, Psybolt Ammo
Dakka dakka dakka

Dreadnought - 130
Assault Cannon, Psybolt Ammo
Drops in with the StormRaven and smashes things.

Points: 1830
Models: 30
Warp Dice: 11

I got 20 points to play with. I'm not sure what to do with the StormRaven and Dreadnought, as what is the best load out for them. Any thoughts? Thanks!

[DarkLink]

Couple of things.

Storm Ravens make terrible, terrible, terrible transports. They get shot down, everything inside dies. Storm Ravens are gunships, take the MM, assault cannon and hurricane bolters with psybolt ammo and shoot stuff. They won't open transports for you, though, since you won't come on till T2 at the earliest, and frequently not till turns 3 or 4.

Upgrade the Dreadnought to dual TL Autocannons. Deploy it on the board and use that to pop transports.

You're now left with three units but only two transports. How you want to deal with that is really up to you.

[Halollet]

Couple of things.

Storm Ravens make terrible, terrible, terrible transports. They get shot down, everything inside dies. Storm Ravens are gunships, take the MM, assault cannon and hurricane bolters with psybolt ammo and shoot stuff. They won't open transports for you, though, since you won't come on till T2 at the earliest, and frequently not till turns 3 or 4.

Upgrade the Dreadnought to dual TL Autocannons. Deploy it on the board and use that to pop transports.

You're now left with three units but only two transports. How you want to deal with that is really up to you.

"Get shot out of the sky" isn't really a good arguement not to take something. Otherwise no one would ever play Dark Eldar, right?

Why does it get shot out the sky so easily? Compared to what? Also, if I don't use it for anti tank, what am I suppose to use? Its not like GKs are gushing with tank weapons. My next opponent will probably be field 3 leman Russes. Str 8 auto cannon are going to do crap to them.

[DarkLink]

It's not that the Raven won't do anything. Like I said, it makes a great gunship. But if you have guys inside, it becomes an even higher priority, and the unit inside basically auto-dies when it crashes. Plus, to assault out of it you must drop into hiver mode which negates the main thing keeping the Raven alive.

I've seen plenty of people try to use Ravens as transports in tournaments, and it doesn't work well. Storm Ravens are great, just using them as a transport is kind of a trap.

- - - Updated - - -

Multimeltas on your LRs and the Raven are about the only thing that can reasonably shoot Russes to death, that and masses psycannon fire. So the assault cannon multimelta Raven will help out. But trust me, av14 doesn't care about lascannons.

[Halollet]

If the opponent has really good anti air, I can always put Coteaz with the purifiers and then deep strike the terminators. I can always use "skies of fury" to drop of the dreadnought the turn the Raven shows up. So I'm not too worried.

I hoping to use the raven's speed to get the side armour of a russ with the lascannon. I know it won't scratch av14, that's why I'm bringing 2 land raiders! :)

I hear your concerns and I'll keep an eye on it! Play testing will probably prove you right, but I got to try it my way first, sorry.

But for now, I got a close up dreadnought to equip and and extra 20 points to spend. Keeping with the feel of this list, what do ya think I should do?

[DarkLink]

Shadow skies or whatever that rule is, would be the one case I'd use a SR for, though just storm bolters isn't as impressive for that. I would allt in grav centurions personally, and deepstrike out the back as soon as you come on the board. Just my thoughts.

[Halollet]

Right, if I ever play Space marines all remember that.

But for now, still curious what to do with the last 20 points and is there a better way to equip my dreadnought for this army?

I was thinking of giving my dread a heavy flamer on top of the assault cannon and then replace the brain minds with rad grenades and master craft the grandmaster's nemesis sword.

How does that sound?

[40kGamer]

I always try to find the points for a heavy flamer on a Dread. It's even better now that you can burn the passengers in Open topped transports. My Dark Eldar reserve a special hatred for this rule! :) Also Rad grenades are pretty cool and rerolling a missed CC attack is always good... especially if you're not going for divination.

Overall it looks like a nice fun list but I don't think it would fare well at competitive tournaments. (I rarely do well myself as I prefer to shoot for best appearance/sport vs going all in on the changing hotness of the day.) Also, the low unit count may cause you to struggle with the new Maelstrom missions.

[Halollet]

You know. I'm really starting to doubt the effectiveness of a lascannon when its a choice between it and a str 7 assault cannon. I feel almost foolish because I'm taking a heavy armour army because tanks are hard to blow up and then I pick weapons forgetting that tanks are hard to blow up. Can someone do the math hammer for this? I tried but I'm lost. Because the lascannon has a chance to blow it up but the assault cannon has more shots and has rending. Any mathhammeriticians out there that can help me please?

[Houghten]

I did the maff once. I remember the psycannon was better at killing AV14. But that was back in the days when you only got bonuses on the Vehicle Damage Table for AP1, not AP2, and any penetrating hit could be a Wrecked or an Explodes. I'd need to run it again with the new numbers.

[Caitsidhe]

You know. I'm really starting to doubt the effectiveness of a lascannon when its a choice between it and a str 7 assault cannon. I feel almost foolish because I'm taking a heavy armour army because tanks are hard to blow up and then I pick weapons forgetting that tanks are hard to blow up. Can someone do the math hammer for this? I tried but I'm lost. Because the lascannon has a chance to blow it up but the assault cannon has more shots and has rending. Any mathhammeriticians out there that can help me please?

It depends on your local META really. I would never go to a tournament in my area relying on assault cannons because of the rise of the Imperial Knight. For better or for worse, I need to assume STR-7+ to crack the can and want reliable AP-2 to AP-1 to have a chance at bonus hull points. Assault cannons are great against horde armies and light vehicles. The problem is I can kill horde and light vehicles easily enough without assault cannons or the units required to carry them.

Melta Guns, Multi-Melta, and they trusty Lascannon (twin-linked whenever possible) remain auto-include due to the influx of the super heavies. They also remain quite effective against other things as well. If you never see Knights, of course, or a spamming of Terminators, I can follow your logic.

[Houghten]

Aww, hell. I came to the thread with me shiny new calumalations, then realised everything I did for Razorbacks was wasted and I don't have any data for your Dread's non-twin-linked psycannon.

Please hold. Your call is important to us...

[Halollet]

I hope I did this right, and if I did, I'm confused as the assault cannon at str 7 seems to be better then a lascannon! :\

To hit with TL BS 4

4/6 + 2/6*4/6 = 0.89

Lascannon vs
av 14
hull point 0.89*2/6 = 30%
boom 0.89*1/6*1/6 = 2.4%
av 13
hull point 0.89*3/6 = 44.5%
boom 0.89*2/6*1/6 = 5%
av 12
hull point 0.89*4/6 = 59%
boom 0.89*3/6*1/6 = 7.4%

Psybolt Assault Cannon vs
av 14
Hull point 0.89*4*1/6 = 59%
Penatrating 0.89*4*1/6*2/3 = 39%
av 13
Hull point 0.89*4*1/6 (Penatrating hits) = 59%
av 12
Hull point 0.89*4*2/6 = 119%

[Caitsidhe]

You may be confusing an Assault Cannon with an Auto-Cannon. Assault Cannons are STR-6. Auto-Cannons are STR-7. *It bears noting that Assault Cannons only have a 24" range too making them poor choices to try and pop vehicles as said vehicles will be quite close by that point.

[Houghten]

No, you is usin' da wrong maff. (Edit: I was ninja'd by Caitsidhe. "You" in this sentence is Halollet.)

When you have four shots, you can't simply shove a four into the equation and come up with four times the probability. As evidenced by your result of more than 100% chance of knocking a hull point off AV12. More than 100% chance is impossible, so that's a big sign something's up wiv da maff.

You gotta use da bio-gnomy equashun.

Pay attenshun ter dis wun an' try ter remember it, 'cos it's a really big part 'o maffhammerin'. Maybe get a grot ter write it down for yer an' read it back later.

Where the probability of success on any given try = p, the probability of x successes in n tries is
P(x) = nCx x px x (1-p)n-x

If ya gotta good complicated addin' gubbinz, C will be a button on it. If ya gotta weedy grot addin' gubbinz, ya gotta work it out separate.

nCx = n! / (x! x (n-x)!)

Course, if ya got a weedy grot addin' gubbinz, it probably ain't got a ! button neither. So ya gotta work dat out manually an' all. n! = n x (n-1) x (n-2) an' so on down to x 2 x 1.

Dis is a right royal pain ter work out longhand, so if yer ain't got a proppa addin' gubbinz, use Excel instead. Da COMBIN funkshun works for C. Ya writes nCx as =COMBIN(n,x).

So, back ter yer twin-linked psycannon vs. AV12 calculation, pluggin' in da numbers... dis is where it gets a bit komplicated again. Yer calculation was fer knockin' off a hull point, but if ya just plugs in x = 1 ya get da chance of knockin' off exactly one hull point, which looks a bit shy considerin' ya got a chance of knockin' off two or more. So what ya really wanna know is da chance of knockin' off at least one.

I could take yer through all that, but dere's a shortcut ter get ter where ya wanna be. We can jus' calculate da chance of knockin' off no hull points at all, den take it away from 1 to get da opposite. So x = 0. n = 4 'cos ya got 4 shots. An' p = 8/9 x 2/6 = 8/27.

When yer workin' wiv' 0, a lotta bitz simplify out ter 1. nC0 = 1, and p0 = 1 So all we got left is (1-p)n-0, which is (19/27)4, which is 24.5%, an' 1 minus dat is 75.5%. Which is pretty good odds, but nowhere near 119%.

All dat said, I'z been workin' wiv yer calculation to get a proppa parallel to yer 119%. But I ain't interested in knockin' bits off, I wanna kill da zogger. Nuffin wiv AV12 has more'n 3 HP, so we needs ter run it wiv x = 3 an' x = 4 an' add 'em together ter get da chance of a kill.
So P(3) = 4C3 x (8/27)3 x (19/27)1 = 7.3%
and P(4) = 4C4 x (8/27)4 x (19/27)0 = 0.8%
So P(splat) = P(3) + P(4) = 7.3% + 0.8% = 8.1% chance of knocking off all the hull points.

Ain't great, but it's still better'n a twin-linked lascannon, which only has a 7.4% chance of explodin' da same wagon. BUT! Two twin-linked lascannon have a 14.3% chance. So it depends what platform you're talking about. Comparing the Godhammer Land Raider to the Land Raider Crusader with psybolts, the Godhammer is better at killing AV12 vehicles. But if you're hunting Valkyries with your Stormraven, you're better off with the psycannon than the lascannon.

Still ain't done the maff for a Dread, though. The post where I do all the apples-to-apples comparison is going to be separate, and not written all orkily (orky makes maff teachin' fun, but a bunch 'a borin' tables is still jus' tables).

Edit @ Caitside: Psybolt ammo.

[40kGamer]

Psybolt Assault Cannons are S7. My stats is a bit rusty but I come up with the same basic results. I think using the # of shots changes it from a % probability to an expected value:

Psybolt Assault Cannon vs AV14:

BS 4 (not twin linked)
HPs (4 shots x 0.67 x 1/6) = 0.4467
BS 4 (twin linked)
HPs (4 shots x 0.89 x 1/6) = 0.5926

TL Lascannon vs AV14
BS 4 (Twin Linked)
HPs (1 shot x .89 x 2/6) = 0.2963
Boom (1 shot x .89 x 1/6 x 1/6) = 0.0247

So the Psybolt armed Assault Cannon will strip more HPs (not real surprising as it has 4 times the base shots) but it doesn't have the longshot chance of making anything go boom! I ran it with and without twin linked as it can go either way for Grey Knights. :)

[Caitsidhe]

Psybolt Assault Cannons are S7. My stats is a bit rusty but I come up with the same basic results but I think using the # of shots changes it from a % probability to an expected value:

Psybolt Assault Cannon vs AV14:

BS 4 (not twin linked)
HPs (4 shots x 0.67 x 1/6) = 0.4467
BS 4 (twin linked)
HPs (4 shots x 0.89 x 1/6) = 0.5926

TL Lascannon vs AV14
BS 4 (Twin Linked)
HPs (1 shot x .89 x 2/6) = 0.2963
Boom (1 shot x .89 x 1/6 x 1/6) = 0.0247

So the Psybolt armed Assault Cannon will strip more HPs (not real surprising as it has 4 times the base shots) but it doesn't have the longshot chance of making anything go boom! I ran it with and without twin linked as it can go either way for Grey Knights. :)

Yes, you can get to STR-7 with expensive ammo upgrade, but you still have to deal with a 24" range. Most people want to pop vehicles before they get going. Then there is that META question again. Against a Land Raider the Assault Cannon does nothing. Against a Knight's front armor (what you are likely looking at) you need 6's just to glance. You will get no argument from me in regards to it being better at shredding light armor, but the utility ends there. I also tend to see Dreads get popped like grapes long before a good hulling takes place. I like my odds on a hard hitting shot first. I use Assault Cannons all the time. They come free with my Obliterators. I assure you that I prefer the Lascannons and Melta Weapons over the Assault Cannons due to results any day. I use the Assault Cannons against specific kinds of targets. Since you don't get a choice turn to turn, I suggest the higher power equipment.

[Houghten]

So. You have three platforms in your force that can choose between lascannon and psycannon: the Dreadnought, the Land Raiders and the Stormraven. The numbers are different for all three, because the Dreadnought's psycannon isn't twin-linked and the Land Raider has double the lascannon.

Against a Land Raider or Leman Russ, the lascannon is the clear winner. The twin-linked psycannon has just a 1.2% chance of stripping all 3 hull points off the Russ and a 0.05% chance of getting all four off the Land Raider. Don't even ask about the non-twin-linked one, it might as well be a laspistol. The twin-linked lascannon has a much more respectable 2.5% chance and the double twin-linked lascannon have a 4.9% chance.

All of these numbers are pretty poor, TBH. If you have to hunt enemy land raiders, your Purifiers' daemonhammers are going to have a much better go of it. With 2 of them getting 3 attacks each on the charge, and assuming Hammerhand, six S10 attacks hitting on 3s and penetrating on 5s have a 17.2% chance of exploding it, even ignoring the chances of wrecking it by glances.

So what about the opposite? Dark Eldar Venoms are only AV10 with 2HP and a 5+ Invulnerable save, and... oh, zog, all my calculations are off because I forgot they're open-topped. More on that story later.

[40kGamer]

Yes, you can get to STR-7 with expensive ammo upgrade, but you still have to deal with a 24" range. Most people want to pop vehicles before they get going. Then there is that META question again. Against a Land Raider the Assault Cannon does nothing. Against a Knight's front armor (what you are likely looking at) you need 6's just to glance. You will get no argument from me in regards to it being better at shredding light armor, but the utility ends there. I also tend to see Dreads get popped like grapes long before a good hulling takes place. I like my odds on a hard hitting shot first. I use Assault Cannons all the time. They come free with my Obliterators. I assure you that I prefer the Lascannons and Melta Weapons over the Assault Cannons due to results any day. I use the Assault Cannons against specific kinds of targets. Since you don't get a choice turn to turn, I suggest the higher power equipment.

I 100% prefer melta over assault cannons! :) However, I've never been a huge fan of Lascannons with marines since there are usually only a couple of them, but with Grey Knights they might be a solid choice... GKs don't have a lot of options for volume firepower so it's a tough call and would need to be based on the local meta. I'm seeing so many Knights (and larger) choices hitting the table that I'm rethinking how much firepower each of my armies needs to be able to cope.

[Halollet]

I'm debating the potential between a tl lascannon or a psybolt assault cannon ( which is 5 points more) on my storm raven.

I think I might be better with the assault cannon as my opponent is bringing a vendetta and a valrakie to our next battle. I think I'll leave the big tank hunting to my thunder hammers.

Thanks for the input everyone!