Eldar Warwalkers What am I missing

[Badspanna]

This a probely a silly question but with the range and the strength of the Brightlance why is this a bad choice for War Walkers. With the outflank it seems to me like brightlances are an rea good thing to go tank hunting with. you are hitting rear or side armor. am I missing something. I know the brightlance in expensive but you are paying next to nothing for the walker.

[Nabterayl]

It isn't necessarily a bad option, but a brightlance is just an expensive, less flexible missile launcher unless you're shooting at AV 13 or 14. Considering that you are probably going to be outflanking with the walkers, as you suggest, ask yourself how much side AV 13/14 you see. If there's a lot of it (which pretty much means Land Raiders and Leman Russes) then the brightlance might make sense for you.

[DarkLink]

Right, it's just an expensive but fragile unit that isn't that much better in most cases than walkers with some of their other options.

[Silver Drakes Legion]

Since your outflanking scatter lasers or even SC have way more shots, dirt cheap, and are less target priority. Which make them way more viable at BS3 and alot less points. I mean anything MEQ or up standard can hurt a warwalker in melee and even shooting. Plus warwalkers are almost tripled with the upgrade in points of the brightlances.
If you do put brightlances or EMLs you definitely don't want them near the enemy but far away bc of the range. Those are the main reasons they aren't used on warwalkers. If you like brightlances put them on the Waveserpents for twin linked or on a wraithlord with an EML bc of the BS4 otherwise just not worth the points in my opinion.

[Master Bryss]

Given the BS of the Warwalker, giving it two brighlances will, in theory, give you back 1 hit most of the time, so you're paying 90 points for one shot. If your dice rolling is normal, it may take a while to earn your points back, and there is a high chance of the walker being destroyed.

I'd agree with Silver Drakes in using Scatter Lasers or Star Cannons to outflank. But I personally use Eldar Missiles, so won't outflank.

[Requiemnex]

36 inch range.. strength 6... 8 shots a model... Nuff said...

Squad of three... fires on a basalisk... roughly 12 hits.. Good chance of a pen/glance with that.

Also against horde armies it will rip things up. Especially nids with all their new saves and what not.. Most of their models are running decent toughness now as well.

[mjayc50]

yea you should probably be starting with your bright lances on the board (if you face raiders or predators then you want to start nailing them on turn 1 not turn 3) scatter lasers seem to be the way to go but i wouldnt even out flank with them. more shots the better - are you going to make up for 2 lost shooting phases by coming in from the side? probably not. if you decide to keep them from the get go then you can target light vehicles/mc/meq and geq's all game long!

[scadugenga]

Brightlances are great weapons, but with BS3 you want multiple shots, particularly if you're outflanking. (which, with walkers you should do. They pop too easily otherwise.)

That being said--it depends upon whom you're facing. Tyranids? I might opt for Starcannon, EML or BL to get the wound w/o them being able to save. Guard? Scats, as you'll be popping any Russ w/something other than your warwalkers. (EG Fire Dragons) With dual scats, you can hose down the artillery or infantry with large success.

That being said--go with what you want to play with. Don't feel you have to cookie-cutter yourself based on internet speculation.

[Justin Matters]

War walker with 2x Bright lance vs
Armour 10 - av 1 hit - glance 17%, pen 66%
Armour 11 - av 1 hit - glance 17%, pen 50%
Armour 12 - av 1 hit - glance 17%, pen 33%
Armour 13 - av 1 hit - glance 17%, pen 33%
Armour 14 - av 1 hit - glance 17%, pen 33%

War walker with 2x Scatter laser vs
Armour 10 - av 4 hits - glance 4x 17% pen 4 x 33% = ~80% chance of 1+ pen
Armour 11 - av 4 hits - glance 4x 17% pen 4 x 17% = ~53% chance of 1+ pen
Armour 12 - av 4 hits - glance 4x 17% = ~53% chance of 1+ glance
Armour 13 - av 4 hits - no effect
Armour 14 - av 4 hits - no effect

So if you expect to face armour 10/11 take scatter lasers. for armour 12 it is hobsons choice but I feel the weapon costs and other factors slightly favour scatter lasers (they are cheaper and deal better with secondary targets) for armour 13/14 take Bright Lance.

But generally war walkers will not do well against heavily armoured vehicles if they go toe to toe so overall I would take Scatter Lasers on war walkers and pick something meatier to take on heavy armour.

[Fizyx]

War walker with 2x Bright lance vs
Armour 10 - av 1 hit - glance 17%, pen 66%
Armour 11 - av 1 hit - glance 17%, pen 50%
Armour 12 - av 1 hit - glance 17%, pen 33%
Armour 13 - av 1 hit - glance 17%, pen 33%
Armour 14 - av 1 hit - glance 17%, pen 33%

War walker with 2x Scatter laser vs
Armour 10 - av 4 hits - glance 4x 17% pen 4 x 33% = ~80% chance of 1+ pen
Armour 11 - av 4 hits - glance 4x 17% pen 4 x 17% = ~53% chance of 1+ pen
Armour 12 - av 4 hits - glance 4x 17% = ~53% chance of 1+ glance
Armour 13 - av 4 hits - no effect
Armour 14 - av 4 hits - no effect

So if you expect to face armour 10/11 take scatter lasers. for armour 12 it is hobsons choice but I feel the weapon costs and other factors slightly favour scatter lasers (they are cheaper and deal better with secondary targets) for armour 13/14 take Bright Lance.

But generally war walkers will not do well against heavily armoured vehicles if they go toe to toe so overall I would take Scatter Lasers on war walkers and pick something meatier to take on heavy armour.

The chance to pen for the Bright Lance is actually a little bit lower than that. 55% for AV 10, 44% for AV11 and 30.5% for AV12+. Overall I wouldn't trust it unless you needed something to take out AV13/14.

[Nabterayl]

The chance to pen for the Bright Lance is actually a little bit lower than that. 55% for AV 10, 44% for AV11 and 30.5% for AV12+. Overall I wouldn't trust it unless you needed something to take out AV13/14.
How'd you get those numbers?

[Fizyx]

Just a simple binomial function.

[Nabterayl]

Pardon my math ignorance, but what function was that? Always interested to learn from people who know statistics better than I do.

[Fizyx]

It's probabilities, not statistics, but sure.

Bright Lance vs. AV10 2 shots:

Each shot has a 50% chance to hit and a 66% chance to pen, for a total of 33% chance to pen per shot. Statistically, that is 0.66 penetrations every 2 shots, but if you want probabilities...

There are 4 possible outcomes: both pen, both don't, and 2x one does and one does not. Think of it as a coin flip that is 67/33 rather than 50/50.

So for one pen we have 2 possible outcomes

Next, probabilities. 33% pen, 67% will not pen

So we have 2 * 0.33 * 0.67 = .444

But I said 55%? Well, one of the outcomes still allows for a pen. in fact, two of them. So what we have is:

1 * 0.33^2 * 0.66^0 = .11111

Which gives us a 55.5% chance for at least one pen. You double that .111 (because you are penetrating twice) and you now have 0.6666, or the statistical average. The fact still is your chance for at least 1 penetration is only 55%.

The actual formula is ((N!/(N-k!)*(k!)) * P^k * (1-P)^(N-k)

Where N is the number of shots, P is the probability (hitting, wounding, pinning, whatever) and k is the number you are finding the probability of (which is why we changed the .33 to a .33^2 and the .66 to a .66^0 on the double penetration probability.) ! = factorial.

On the table you can go with your normal statistical method, but if you are planning a force I like to do the actual probabilities. I'm a nerd, what can I say?

[Nabterayl]

Oh, I see. I misunderstood the math you were presenting. Yes, quite. I do something similar when planning my anti-vehicle math, calculating the odds of scoring at least one wrecked/exploded/weapon destroyed-or-immobilized result.