Canaries in the Coal Mine: What Does Posting Volume Mean (If Anything)?

[Caitsidhe]

I'm hoping BOLS can help us out here. I'm sure their software can track statistics of how many posts are being made in specific areas. Human memory is flawed, but I seem to recall there being a hell of a lot more activity (posts) going on constantly about 40K (positive and negative) back in 5th Edition. I won't bother trying to go back further because I have no idea how far back we can accurately track the posts. What I'm saying is that for having just had a new release drop, the boards on the various Forums seems rather quiet to me. It isn't so dead as you can hear a pin drop, but let's be honest, the various Forums don't seem to be a hotbed of any kind of discussion. Has it always been this way? I certainly remember it being a bit more lively here and at the various other locations.

So the questions I would love to see answered are:

1. What are the post statistics on BOLS within the 40K sections back in 5th Edition by month of the first year of its release, the same for 6th Edition, and now for 7th Edition as far as we have?

2. Compare them and find out if there is a drop in activity.

3. Consider what it means, if it has any relevance at all?

I openly admit I could be wrong in thinking there seems to be a rather unimpressive lull in posting. The memory can play one false. It just feels off to me, as if there is a distinctive drop in discussion, commentary, and well... excitement. And if that is true, are the quacking voices on the internet good indicators that something is happening. Are we canaries in the coal mine?

[YorkNecromancer]

I don't know about the statistics, but I do agree that the discussions about 40K haven't felt quite as vital since 5th ed. I wonder if it might be the speed of the changes? So many things at once overwhelming the player base?

Possibly the fact that because the meta has been shifting so quickly, it has been harder to form a calcified set of complaints - which always seem to form the rockbed of most 40K discussions.

I don't know. I do know that it's hard to be an expert on something or form an experienced opinion when the area you're trying to be an expert in shifts from moment-to-moment. You can be a fluff expert, you can be a modelling expert, but BoLS has always been a community formed around a hard core of tournament players, and it's harder to be an expert at that, what with constant new shifts in army level, power, and tactics.

Not to mention that a lot of that same hard core seem to be drifting away a little because of the Real World getting in the way, as it is so often wont to do. :)

[Wolfshade]

Warning the following post contains anacedotes in lieu of any facts:

The number of users of the site has steadily been increasinging. There have been a number of waves of signups. A couple of these were instigated by the "Great BoLS Giveaway" and then there was a random month where the number of new users sky rocketed seemingly unrealted to any internal or external pressures.

New editions always prompt a wave of postings and historically, with the GW monthly release schedule we would see a build up of postings towards the end of the month as the new stuff went from being rumour to confirmed to discussion.

But with the weekly model there thends to be a generally high level of murmur and this has become the new normal.

I do agree with York and I do agree. We tended to have rather heated debates about things as we got stuck in a rut and argued about what the new normal was and how to deal with X. But, with things constantly changing, it is hard to get these conversations going as the goals are always changin.

[Bigred]

Without going into specifics, I would like to also point out there there are more things at work here than just the enthusiasm level for 7th Edition.

We just hit the start of summer break, roughly 2-3 weeks ago which is a normal time of year for folks to wander off the internet and do real life stuff. This has no real effect on the working stiffs among us, but the internet wargaming demographic has a large amount of college and even high-school students, so there are seasonal lulls at play that cut across all websites that are "18-35" in demographic. They will be back in a couple months as fall semester cranks back up.

As for 7th Edition itself, it's a very odd bird as we've never seen GW release an edition after only 2 years. I would say on balance after getting in some games that 7th isn't any kind of drastic change from 6th. It has about the "average amount of change" from edition to edition, most of them seemingly arbitrary.

So for me the real question in most player's minds isn't about whether the edition is good or bad - but instead about how they feel about GW making them buy a new edition after only 24 months with the old $85 tome. New editions are the only time a game company can force all of their playerbase to do a mass purchase and make a ton of cash. The flipside is, done poorly you also give your players an opportunity to move onto competitors en masse.

The other thing to note is that the wargaming industry seems to be booming, and I have to say that Kickstarters are reaching some type of critical mass. If you look at the major sites, and the Gamewire, you will see more and more kickstarters taking up more and more of a percentage of space month per month.

It may be that the industry as a whole is becoming larger, but more fragmented, and as the biggest player, GW has the most marketshare to lose to players buying and playing the dozens of new games emerging each month.

We at BoLS have certainly been preparing for and expanding our coverage to deal with the ever more heterogeneous tastes of our readers for well over a year now.

For me the question is have we moved into a new phase of the industry where "the new normal" is for the average player to play multiple systems, instead of defensively clinging to only one of the big systems?

The websites I would most be worried about are places that narrowly cater to only a single gamesystem. You know what they say about putting all your eggs in one basket. If even untouchable industry dominating games as mighty as WFB, Battletech, and D&D can stumble, anyone can...

In the end, you need to respect and delight your customers - or else. In this industry, the long knives are always out.

[Dave Mcturk]

"As for 7th Edition itself, it's a very odd bird as we've never seen GW release an edition after only 2 years. I would say on balance after getting in some games that 7th isn't any kind of drastic change from 6th. It has about the "average amount of change" from edition to edition, most of them seemingly arbitrary."

chuckle!:eek:

most of the changes seem to have speeded up play by simplifying some crazy rules introduced in 6th. but the root problems have just been ignored.

think we are going to stick to 6th! but drop the rubbish we dont like. we are still feeding the monster.

[Arkhan Land]

It may be that the industry as a whole is becoming larger, but more fragmented, and as the biggest player, GW has the most marketshare to lose to players buying and playing the dozens of new games emerging each month.

We at BoLS have certainly been preparing for and expanding our coverage to deal with the ever more heterogeneous tastes of our readers for well over a year now.

For me the question is have we moved into a new phase of the industry where "the new normal" is for the average player to play multiple systems, instead of defensively clinging to only one of the big systems?

The websites I would most be worried about are places that narrowly cater to only a single gamesystem. You know what they say about putting all your eggs in one basket. If even untouchable industry dominating games as mighty as WFB, Battletech, and D&D can stumble, anyone can...

In the end, you need to respect and delight your customers - or else. In this industry, the long knives are always out.


no more six channels on tv, no more two game systems at local store

[Path Walker]

People not posting about 40k doesn't mean that people aren't enjoying 40k, its could mean they're too busy enjoying 40k to post, for example. Causality and causation and all that.

[Bigred]

People not posting about 40k doesn't mean that people aren't enjoying 40k, its could mean they're too busy enjoying 40k to post, for example. Causality and causation and all that.

Indeed.

I'm chalking most of it up to the start of summer myself. I've seen the pattern for several years now.

[Harley]

Video game, comic, model and hobby stores are all beginning to clear out about right now. It's simple economics. Meanwhile, beaches, parks and roads are getting filled up.

[Deadlift]

Indeed.

I'm chalking most of it up to the start of summer myself. I've seen the pattern for several years now.

Could be, but in my own gaming circles 40k isn't being played nearly as much, especially since the introduction of 7th. Is this happening in other gaming groups ? Some of us have dropped 40k completely, some play 40k and a few other games. X wing being the most popular of all games by far. I don't think this is a bad thing and if it gets GW thinking about how to lure gamers back who have who have moved on or not solely playing their products well we as the consumer we win. Competition in the market and variety for us is absolutely win/win for us.
Hearthstone is another game were all playing now as well, not a wargame but still lots of fun.

*Now if a Blizzard entered the wargaming market......? Horde v Alliance, I'd play it especially if I could paint and play my favorite warcraft characters.

* didn't realise there is one! but the miniatures look crap, I want GW quality ones.

[Krefey]

People not posting about 40k doesn't mean that people aren't enjoying 40k, its could mean they're too busy enjoying 40k to post, for example. Causality and causation and all that.

Or people are getting tired of seeing the usual negativity that happens online and jsut couldn't be bothered participating in what the perceive to be a negative environment for a hobby that they want to enjoy.

[Bigred]

I see X-Wing growing like a weed everywhere I go and from every retailer I talk to.

I'm thinking more with each passing quarter that FFG has the magic formula...

[Pssyche]

Or people are getting tired of seeing the usual negativity that happens online and jsut couldn't be bothered participating in what the perceive to be a negative environment for a hobby that they want to enjoy.

You're spot on there, my friend.
I used to actively participate in most of the Forums, particularly Heresy Online which I really enjoyed.
But in the last two years I've dropped every one of them, apart from BoLS, due to the offensive trolling I have received.
Even my BoLS activity has been curtailed somewhat because I don't want to jeopardise my participation in this one remaining site.

[Mr Mystery]

There's also noise to signal to consider.

Take BoLs. Our noise to signal is actually pretty good, on the whole. It may not be the biggest forum out there, but the quality of posting is noticably higher than elsewhere.

Go on Dakka for instance. Rumour gets posted up - 22nd Century Freak Out begins. And continues, and continues, and continues. Anyone mentions 'hey man, it's just a rumour' generates a good 20 or so follow up posts of ad hominem attacks. So out of a 15 page thread, there might be perhaps 10 posts actually worth reading.

And as above with Pssyche, I know various people who used to post on forums who just got bored of relentless negativity so often found online. After all, this is a cooperative hobby we've all sunk significant amounts of money into (I must be into the tens of thousands now), and we're each entitled to take what we want from it. Sadly, there are always those who feel everyone else is wrong, and will follow them around telling them their wrong. Which seems pretty pointless to me.

[Arkhan Land]

I think most peoples perceptions about the relationship between negative and positive posting and actual gameplay are probably right, I had a similar issue a long long time ago with music stuff where I realized there were a lot of unproductive people on forums, saying yay or nay, very seldom going out to shows to actually see bands.
Kind of influenced me to get off my butt and work more on music/doing sound in a way that have payed off a great deal more. Now I almost never post in any of my synth/music/recording/sound engineering related forums but spend hours each day every day actually doing these things.

[daboarder]

Or people are getting tired of seeing the usual negativity that happens online and jsut couldn't be bothered participating in what the perceive to be a negative environment for a hobby that they want to enjoy.

They'd see a whole lot less if they participated in the positive threads as opposed to constantly griping about griping

[Caitsidhe]

They'd see a whole lot less if they participated in the positive threads as opposed to constantly griping about griping

Truer words were never said. The truth is most people just like to complain about things. Some people complain about the rules, and some people seem to complain about the complainers. There are also those who complain about those who complain about the complainers. It is facet of human nature which trumpets on the internet, i.e. the "best friend confidante" effect. All of us, in our real lives, have a friend (or perhaps even several) with whom we complain with. The nature of the internet is that it provides this wailing wall twenty-four hours a day and seven days a week. The wall between the speaker and the audience is just enough to simulate the comfort effect of talking to that friend somewhat privately.

Does it drive off people? Statistically, no, it doesn't. The most vital and active places on the internet that don't involve porn or watching videos of pets doing crazy things are forums and chat sites where people get on a soapbox. The same is true of "talk radio," wherein the only healthy talk shows are predominantly negative. What kind of political campaigning works? Negative. For better or for worse, people like a good, safe fight. They like to vent their spleens. Other people, no matter what they claim otherwise, like to listen. You want proof? Why do all those who complain about the complainers even read the posts in the first place? They can certainly choose to ignore or skip those of which they find so little worth. Why do people who hate Rush Limbaugh (I do myself) listen to his idiotic show and call in to argue? :D

No, I don't think we can attribute the lack of buzz and excitement online to a collective "I'm sick of all the negativity" protest. I'm willing to entertain the notion that perhaps the start of summer has slowed things down, although I'm not sure I agree with it. That is when my area usually heats up. There is a drop across the board in posting about 40K in every single group on every single site that holds discussions. I think there is a meaning to be gleaned there. Despite all the claims that 7th Edition is going to break the bank with more sales than every before, I have my doubts. I didn't see the release night parties or send off tournaments at the LGS this time around. I am not finding people playing and talking about playing the new rules. I am not finding much online. Hell, I'm not even seeing much discussion of net-lists which should be fertile ground in this new wild west format.

What I'm seeing is the Games Workshop version of the release of that recent Lone Ranger movie. The public just didn't care. Johnny Depp pretending to be another drunken stereotype just didn't pack'em into the seats. I'm looking for other reasons for this lull to be sure, but in going back (on those sites that I can) and comparing other releases, activity, and so on, I am finding no real differences beyond people just not showing up. Hell, even those that COMPLAIN are down in number. They say you are truly dead when not even your enemies remember or take time to curse your name. Consider that, even the hate chatter about Games Workshop seems at an all time low, as if those who dislike them can't even be bothered to waste the time. I happen to think that Games Workshop should care a LOT about this silence, even more than the cacophony that they chose to ignore before.

[Necron2.0]

I see X-Wing growing like a weed everywhere I go and from every retailer I talk to.

I'm thinking more with each passing quarter that FFG has the magic formula...

This!

My FLGS used to be a GW house in everything except name. Although the store sold more than just GW & Citadel, nobody seemed to play anything except Warhammer and 40K. Flash forward three years, and people playing anything GW seems rare. The tables are filled with people playing nothing but Warmachine or X-Wing. GW now is on par with people playing Bolt Action or a traditional pen-and-paper RPG.

Of course, this is just my observation of my local gaming scene - other people's mileage may vary - but for me it makes me wonder if I should divest myself of my Necrons and Dark Eldar.

[Harley]

Stuff ^

Some very good points here.

It's possible with this open, do what you want format, GW accidentally broke a barrier usually only seen when you turn on God Mode or Infinite money (rosebud) into a video game. Suddenly the magic is gone when you can do whatever you want. There isn't much challenge or immersion, just a sandbox of 2 dimensional toy soldiers killing each other. Honestly it seems like players are getting burnt out on irreconcilable balance issues even more present in 7th "Apocalypse" edition.

I'm a strong proponent of structured formatting and constraints which will challenge players and peak their interest. If you just give kids a ball and show them the many ways they can play with it, they will be amused for a hour. If you set down all the complex guidelines of football, they will play the same game for years.

These releases lately seem rather uninspired as well. Astra Militarum should have been a HUGE release, but myself with 13 IG tanks and tons of infantry didn't buy a single model or even the new codex. The new models were either more expensive remakes of old models or were an ugly transport (err Taurox).

X Wing seems exciting because it's so tactical. There are even stratagems on setting up which in 40k amounts to; Go first, shoot more than the other guy, don't roll 1s.

[Defenestratus]

This!

My FLGS used to be a GW house in everything except name. Although the store sold more than just GW & Citadel, nobody seemed to play anything except Warhammer and 40K. Flash forward three years, and people playing anything GW seems rare. The tables are filled with people playing nothing but Warmachine or X-Wing. GW now is on par with people playing Bolt Action or a traditional pen-and-paper RPG.

Of course, this is just my observation of my local gaming scene - other people's mileage may vary - but for me it makes me wonder if I should divest myself of my Necrons and Dark Eldar.

This is what I've experienced in the last 3 LGS' I've been a part of.

Whats sad is that on 40k night, there are more people playing warmachine than 40k.

[Bigred]

This anecdotal (it's just BoLS but based on data from hundreds of thousands of BoLS readers):

The games that garner the most attention of late are:

(in order)
40K
Warmachine
X-Wing
Infinity
Fantasy

And more importantly, the yawning gap in interest between 40k and the others is narrowing month by month. It's not so much 40K pulling less numbers (which is happening, but very slowly), its the dramatic gains by the others.

I'm keeping very close tabs on what a revitalized infinity V3, with a rumored overt American Faction will do for that system. FFG is running on all cylinders, and Warmachine is probably getting close to new edition time as well.

Just imagine how edition reboots of almost all the major systems within a year or 2 could shake up the industry. Even I couldn't guess who how the chips would fall player-wise.

[Krefey]

This anecdotal (it's just BoLS but based on data from hundreds of thousands of BoLS readers):

The games that garner the most attention of late are:

(in order)
40K
Warmachine
X-Wing
Infinity
Fantasy

And more importantly, the yawning gap in interest between 40k and the others is narrowing month by month. It's not so much 40K pulling less numbers (which is happening, but very slowly), its the dramatic gains by the others.

I'm keeping very close tabs on what a revitalized infinity V3, with a rumored overt American Faction will do for that system. FFG is running on all cylinders, and Warmachine is probably getting close to new edition time as well.

Just imagine how edition reboots of almost all the major systems within a year or 2 could shake up the industry. Even I couldn't guess who how the chips would fall player-wise.

The growing popularity of the other systems is definitely a factor. Plus the human tendency to grow bored of something after a period of time and wanting to try somethign new means that unless you've been heavily invested in 40k for a long time, you're more likely to quit and move on to something else after a few years at most.

[Caitsidhe]

The growing popularity of the other systems is definitely a factor. Plus the human tendency to grow bored of something after a period of time and wanting to try somethign new means that unless you've been heavily invested in 40k for a long time, you're more likely to quit and move on to something else after a few years at most.

That and people who are heavily invested often don't really have a need to buy more things. :D The changes wrought by the company to try and force them to buy new stuff by invalidating what they already invested in starts as a minor annoyance and grows into a irksome irritation. Ultimately it comes down to the name of the company, i.e. "Games Workshop". One wonders why, if they are not a game company, they decided to call themselves GAMES workshop. :D It doesn't matter how cool the models look. It doesn't matter how nicely the books are laid out. It doesn't matter how theatrical they rehash the same limited themes of a universe at war. The game has to have a reliable, workable engine if you want to keep everyone happy, buying, and the company growing. This is because:

1. Non-competitive, now called "Narrative" players, don't really need rules at all. They are just playing barbie, so the dice and all the mechanics are ultimately a waste of time.
2. Normal players wants rules (balanced workable rules are better) because to them it is a cool game that happens to tell cool stories.
3. Competitive players who view the game as a sport or a test of their tactical prowess want balanced workable rules or it is impossible to test themselves accurately.

This means two out of three of the player types need/want good rules, and the remaining group doesn't really matter because they will tell you they don't care about winning or rules anyway. :D I have a point; I promise. This is more than a tangent. The growing popularity of other systems is because they put an engine in the cars they design. They don't just look good, they run. These games are not portraying themselves as a "narrative" or non-competitive. They pride themselves on tight sets of rules in combination with a nice model line. So if the vast bulk of players don't want balanced, competitive rules, why are these other systems steadily growing? These are important questions which Games Workshop should be asking itself. The factor you bring up, i.e. the getting bored and moving on to try something else, is highly debatable. Most people who are moving on don't attribute it to boredom. They attribute it directly to wanting better rules, a price barrier, and simplicity or speed of play. I'm going to take those people at their word.

I think pricing and the idea that 40K can remain a luxury item and compete is what is really in question. Warhammer 40K has never been a beer and pretzels game, no matter what people tell you. Beer and pretzels games are fun, cheap things that people can do in a casual, thrown together atmosphere. Darts, pool, and trivial pursuit are good examples. Games which have a buy in of three hundred dollars or more and that tend to demand you invest thousands of dollars over the years to play are far beyond beer and pretzels. Moreover, to play 40K demands a fairly heavy investment in time, setup, and scheduling. I can't recall a SINGLE instance when me and buddies were just sitting around chatting and someone said, "hey man let's throw some dice." Even if someone wanted to do that, the logistics of it would be prohibitive. :) You have to plan ahead for these games and that kind of goes against the whole beer and pretzels vibe. By contrast, I have been hanging out with my friend Kerstan in the past and just had the wild urge to play Warmachine/Hordes that we didn't arrange ahead of time. The logistics of the game allow it.

What I'm getting at is that Games Workshop has made a rather large mistake (well a whole series of them). Most of these mistakes key on unrealistic expectations in their business model which they refuse to change despite conditions changing in the world around them. What they have done is this:

1. Set the price barrier to get into the game high enough that it will dissuade a fair number of people before they even get started.
2. Set the ongoing costs to play so high that even those who get in tend to move on if they can't afford to get competitive.
3. Moved the rules towards requiring an ever higher model count which in turn means having to buy more models.
4. Bloated the rules with the model count and thus extended the duration of the game to ever longer base units of time which is also prohibitive of casual gaming.
5. Created a new standard in changing rules which requires ever more and more books and dataslates that it makes it difficult to know how everything works.
6. Decided to toss all game balance out the window.
7. Taken on a adversarial relationship with a certain percentage of their customers.

I'm going to stop there because I think that is enough to make the point. Who exactly is the IDEAL Games Workshop customer? Who is this beer and pretzels guy who:

1. Can afford to drop $300.00 on a lark to buy in to play some random weekend with his buddies...
2. Can afford to keep up with the books and rules and models as they come out with enough zeal to keep Games Workshop sales in the black...
3. Can carry all his models around with him and runs in a circle of friends all of whom have adequate play area to play the game on a whim....
4. Has the 2+ hours minimum to blow on a whim...
5. Really loves painting or can afford to do all these countless models...

You get the idea. Ultimately, I know there are some of these guys out there, but I don't think there are enough of them to keep Games Workshop in the black. :) I would guess the rise of these other games is tied largely to price point, ease of play, and fun of play. Most people simply cannot measure up to the Games Workshop customer ideal. :D