I AM THE RED TERROR (and so can you!)

[Dlatrex]

Hi Gents and Gentettes! My first army was Nids (middle of 4th) and they are still my army through thick and thin. Back then The Red Terror was a fascinating relic from the previous edition (moves 9"??) and I was always looking for an excuse to include it in my list.

In this most recent codex she has lost some (lower armor save, lower leadership, no longer Monstrous Creature), gained some (20 points cheaper, +2I, +3BS {LOL!}, extra 'tail' attack), and now is a Beast stuck in a pack of Raveners. Admittedly she can be used to soak certain incoming damage, and her higher leadership helps keep the pack moving properly. It may be that she is overpriced, but fortunately she still does what she did best: Swallow Whole!

I love this big mouthed lass, and will still try to get her on table as often as possible. As others have observed, the restrictions to Swallow Whole are improved compared to last time: she now gulps down Infantry, Jump Infantry, and Jet Pack Infantry. With 6 attacks on the charge this can clear the the board of some otherwise pesky durable characters; even those who have Eternal Warrior.

Sooooo...as a tool to help me when I'm staring at an infantry beatstick, wondering if I she should assault face first, I have come up with a list of the sometimes-bulky-always-scrumptious-Eternal-Warriors!

The following are some of the more famous guys who usually refuse to die, and represent the likely hood that on the charge The Red Terror will #1, Eat them whole, #2 Escape without injury, #3-#4 suffer wounds, #5 Be killed. In some cases the attacks are occurring concurrently (can a model still be eaten if it kills her on the way down????) so the percentages may add to greater than 100% (not mutually exclusive events). I have no idea if anyone will find this of use, but it is here for anyone to review. Enjoy, and bon appétit! :D


Marneus Calgar
Swallowed Whole! 17.19%
Red untouched 5.59%
Red 1 wound 19.98%
Red 2 wounds 28.54%
Red DEAD 28.70%

Captain Lysander
Swallowed Whole! 11.46%
Red untouched 17.58%
Red 1 wound 0.00%
Red 2 wounds 0.00%
Red DEAD 70.97%

Warmaster Abbadon (using Talon)
Swallowed Whole! 7.57%
Red untouched 1.53%
Red 1 wound 11.29%
Red 2 wounds 31.20%
Red DEAD 55.97%

Warmaster Abbadon (using Drach'nyen)
Swallowed Whole! 9.68%
Red untouched 11.85%
Red 1 wound 20.23%
Red 2 wounds 24.24%
Red DEAD 43.66%

Commisar Yarrick
Swallowed Whole! 34.02%
Red untouched 27.84%
Red 1 wound 27.84%
Red 2 wounds 8.28%
Red DEAD 1.03%

Ghazghkull Mag Uruk Thraka
Swallowed Whole! 22.92%
Red untouched 5.21%
Red 1 wound 0.00%
Red 2 wounds 0.00%
Red DEAD 71.88%

The Sanguinor
Swallowed Whole! 9.05%
Red untouched 13.17%
Red 1 wound 32.92%
Red 2 wounds 32.92%
Red DEAD 20.99%

The Skulltaker
Swallowed Whole! 15.09%
Red untouched 19.75%
Red 1 wound 26.34%
Red 2 wounds 19.75%
Red DEAD 34.16%

Lord Draigo
Swallowed Whole! 11.46%
Red untouched 9.53%
Red 1 wound 30.48%
Red 2 wounds 36.58%
Red DEAD 23.41%

Lord Draigo (using force weapon)
Swallowed Whole! 11.46%
Red untouched 9.53%
Red 1 wound 2.54%
Red 2 wounds 3.05%
Red DEAD 84.89%

Logan Grimnar
Swallowed Whole! 17.19%
Red untouched 23.73%
Red 1 wound 39.55%
Red 2 wounds 26.37%
Red DEAD 10.35%

Logan Grimnar (2H)
Swallowed Whole! 17.19%
Red untouched 5.59%
Red 1 wound 19.98%
Red 2 wounds 28.54%
Red DEAD 28.70%

Drazhar (Twin)
Swallowed Whole! 29.97%
Red untouched 22.14%
Red 1 wound 37.95%
Red 2 wounds 27.11%
Red DEAD 12.80%

Drazhar (2H)
Swallowed Whole! 26.33%
Red untouched 9.53%
Red 1 wound 30.48%
Red 2 wounds 36.58%
Red DEAD 23.41%

and just for fun, that pesky space marine sgt that carries a Ravener-squishing powerfist?

Space Marine Sargent with Powerfist
Swallowed Whole! 68.04%
Red untouched 18.64%
Red 1 wound 13.32%
Red 2 wounds 0.00%
Red DEAD 0.00%

[Ferro]

Brilliant. Thanks for the cool post!

[Sly]

If I could only run her solo, I certainly would, just for the fun factor.

What I dislike is that she's forced to be taken only with at least 1 normal Ravener.

[Nabterayl]

Nifty! Question, though: how is it possible for there to be a 0.00% chance of the Red Terror escaping with only 1 or 2 wounds in some of these scenarios?

[Dlatrex]

Ahh... Those are for Instant Death. Either S10 (Fist of Dorn) or Force weapnons. ;-)

Keen eye. If anyone has a special request I can generate these odds pretty easily for most characters.

[Tynskel]

You should publish your methods... aka post the equations.

[Dlatrex]

Sure!

I mean, they're just brute force statistics; not a lot of finesse in them. There is probably a more elegant way to set them up.

For example The chance that Ghazghkull Mag Uruk Thraka get's swallowed would be
P(A∩B) where P(A) is the chance that the red terror scores at least 4 hits and P(B) is the chance that he makes [correction: FAILS] his invulnerable save.

So...P(A)=P(X)+P(Y)+P(Z)
...where X/Y/Z are the chances that she will score 4, 5 or 6 hits.

P(X)=(P(hit)^X) * (P(miss)^D-X) * N
...where N = number of possible combinations of 4 hits 2 misses on 6 dice, and D = number of sides to the die
N = D!/X!/(D-X)!

So in this example P(X)=(P(hit)^X) * (P(miss)^6-X) * 6!/X!/(6-X)! = ((3/6)^4) * ((3/6)^2) * (6*5*4*3*2*1)/(4*3*2*1)/(2*1)=0.2343
P(Y) = ((3/6)^5) * ((3/6)^1) * (6*5*4*3*2*1)/(5*4*3*2*1)/(1)=0.09375
P(Z) = ((3/6)^6) * ((3/6)^0) * (6*5*4*3*2*1)/(6*5*4*3*2*1)=0.01562

P(A) = 0.2343 + 0.9375 + 0.1562 = 34.37%
P(B) = 4/6

P(A∩B) = 34.37% * 2/3 = 22.92%

[euansmith]

Mathammer hilarity. Thank you :D

[OlDirtyCosta]

There you go Tynskel hope that helped you out lol.

[Dlatrex]

Can someone remind me what happens if Abby rolls a 1 with Drach'nyen's extra attacks? Can he still attack with the Talon afterwards?

[The Silent King]

Hey! Love the article, but I'm not sure how you calculated the invulnerable saves- I'm not aware Ghazgull has one, and regardless shouldn't we be interested in the probability of failing the save?

[Dlatrex]

Hi Silent!

Yes, Ghazghkull has a Cybork body which grants him a 5+ invulnerable save (2/6 chance for success, 4/6 chance for failure). Whoops, looks like I called it the wrong thing; the probability was correct, but I listed it incorrectly in the description.

In short: P(A∩B) = 34.37% * 2/3 = 22.92% just means that Red has a 34% chance to land 4 or more hits, and Ghazghkull has a 33% chance to save against it, bringing us to 22.92% that she successfully swallows him whole!

=P

[Dlatrex]

And for completeness sake I did add Abby using Drach'nyen. Apparently not the better tool for the job in this case:

Warmaster Abbadon (using Drach'nyen)
Swallowed Whole! 9.68%
Red untouched 11.85%
Red 1 wound 20.23%
Red 2 wounds 24.24%
Red DEAD 43.66%

[Dlatrex]

So I guess Yarrick is cool enough to have a invulnerable save now? That certainly helps keep him alive (updated the statistics).

[Maelstorm]

You win +1 Internets for the day!

[Chexmix282]

This is the best thing I've seen on BoLS in quite a while. This is frontpage material. It's far more interesting than most of the articles published, anyway.

[Dlatrex]

That might be taking it a little far, but I do thank you for the compliment! Just the rantings of an epidemiologist with too much time on his hands ;-)

[rpricew]

Nice article... thanks for the post!