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sirrouga
11-29-2009, 10:25 PM
I been going through some army concepts and looking into Space Marines and Imperial Guard and looking into having little to none melta in my armies. Partly due to all the spam going around and to fit my army concepts more (Brotherhood of Nod Imperial Guard and Fire Lords Space Marines are the two I'm looking into right now).

So are there ways to do no melta lists with these armies or are meltas just too good to pass up?

crazyredpraetorian
11-29-2009, 10:48 PM
I have had good luck with limited(atleast for IG) melta. I run the typical triple melta in one vet squad, one melta in the 2nd vet squad, along with 2x plasma, and one ten man squad with a melta. My command, platoon command and other 2 squads use sniper rifles and hvy weapons. The snipers work pretty well against MCs and any troops that aren't Stubborn or Fearless, and they pop light armor occasionally.

Shadoq
11-29-2009, 11:39 PM
Personally....


For the SMs it is hard not to take melta. It compliments them very very well. SMs usually want to get in close and potentially want to assault in addition to having good BS. Melta compliments this well because it is an assault weapon and can be used on the Attack Bikes which are absolutely devastating in my experience. Additionally, it can be mounted on the Land Raiders. Besides all of this, take Vulkan and all your meltas are twin linked and the dice gods roar their displeasure.

For IG, the standard seems to be mech vets with 3X Melta. I understand the power/appeal of it popping tanks and infantry in the face but at the same time, I think and seen it be a one-trick pony. If you're mounted in Chims, you have to be close, and even closer to get your extra D6 and you're talking Av12 on the front and AV10 on the sides and rear which is bleh... . If you're in Valks, Vendettas and drop off close, it gets you close to the target but makes the bird generally very vulnerable and throwing 100+ pts down the tube is not my version of a good idea.

The problem for guard is then what to take if not melta. Flamers while 3 together would make me giggle are too short range. Plasma guns are not worth it for me. The opportunity to kill myself, cost, and the fact they're rapid fire is off putting to me. Melta would do their job better. Personally I run my vets with grenade launchers. They are assault weapons which match very nicely with my Primaris Psykers. S6 krak shots can damage light vehicles, and wound nasty creatures. Their Achilles heal most of the time is that they're only AP4 and guess which armor save is used most by WH40K players? 3+.

Can you do without melta? Absolutely. It all depends on your play style. I tell a good friend of mine who is getting into the hobby this: An army list might work for me, but be an epic failure for him. Example: I hate bolters and usually take none in my BT army, but the same army usually makes a mess at my local game. store. If you're going fluffy and you don't want melta, stick to your guns, you might enjoy the challenge it presents...


Sorry for the long winded ramble :)

SandWyrm
11-29-2009, 11:49 PM
So are there ways to do no melta lists with these armies or are meltas just too good to pass up?

It could be done, but you're gonna have a hard time popping AV14 without it.

Speaking as an IG player... Medusas, Manticores, Demolishers, and Vanquishers could get the job done, but each of those is only a single shot. Even if you hit and penetrate, you're only getting a single die roll on the vehicle damage table. Which limits their effectiveness compared to a Chimelta Vet unit that only costs 155 points. Efficiency-wise, it's no-contest.

BuFFo
11-30-2009, 12:24 AM
I been going through some army concepts and looking into Space Marines and Imperial Guard and looking into having little to none melta in my armies. Partly due to all the spam going around and to fit my army concepts more (Brotherhood of Nod Imperial Guard and Fire Lords Space Marines are the two I'm looking into right now).

So are there ways to do no melta lists with these armies or are meltas just too good to pass up?

My IG have been using Lascannons since the new book came out, and I am perfectly happy with non meltas in my IG army.

Then again, I only take Veterans, so I hitting on a wonderful BS instead of the regular infantry guardsman.

Aldramelech
11-30-2009, 01:01 AM
Ive got two Meltas in my whole army, One in each Platoon Cmd. Squad, and neither has ever fired a shot in anger so far.
I'm considering ditching them altogether.

Cryl
11-30-2009, 02:49 AM
For marines it's possible to take no meltas just be prepared for the cost of lascannons instead. I played melta when 5th came out, I bought into the "melta is great" theme, I recently went back to my old lascannon based marine list and enjoyed playing it more. I'm sure there are plenty of people who will explain why this isn't the optimal tactical use of marines but it works for me.

BuFFo
11-30-2009, 07:17 AM
As an IG player, I am not a fan of 'going to the enemy' so for me, Vets in a Chimera with meltas is not appealing at all.

I like to hang back with Lascannons, and use Creed to twin link the cannons against vehicles. Its so awesome!

Chumbalaya
11-30-2009, 07:27 AM
Without melta marines have big problems with heavy armor, lascannons can only do so much. To nail AV14, you'll need either S10 ordance, Dreads in HtH, or lascannons en masse (something to the tune of 27 shots to get a destroyed result).

Cryl
11-30-2009, 07:34 AM
Without melta marines have big problems with heavy armor, lascannons can only do so much. To nail AV14, you'll need either S10 ordance, Dreads in HtH, or lascannons en masse (something to the tune of 27 shots to get a destroyed result).

That's the arguement that made me buy in to the 'melta is great' theme in 5th ed. What I've found (and this is personal experience so I accept it'll vary by gaming group) is that there's not really all that much AV14 around and lascannons give me that much more range that I can get extra shots off that balance against the AP1 and 2D6 pen of a melta.

Melissia
11-30-2009, 07:52 AM
Speaking as a Sisters player, there IS no life without melta.

Chumbalaya
11-30-2009, 08:07 AM
That's the arguement that made me buy in to the 'melta is great' theme in 5th ed. What I've found (and this is personal experience so I accept it'll vary by gaming group) is that there's not really all that much AV14 around and lascannons give me that much more range that I can get extra shots off that balance against the AP1 and 2D6 pen of a melta.

Melta is important, but it's just a piece of the puzzle. Nothing destroys armor as reliably as meltas do, but because of the range you can't rely solely on it. You take lascannons, missile launchers and autocannons to give you a threat across the table and more options to give the enemy problems, keeping them honest so they can't sit back and pop your meltas before they can fire.

Just like loading up on melta to the exclusion of all else is a poor choice, so is loading up on "not melta" because it decreases your flexibility and gives you problems against armies that melta is made to help you with (heavy armor in particular). Running a one dimensional army is never a good idea.

Cryl
11-30-2009, 09:44 AM
Sure and I probably should have been clearer when I posted. What I meant is that I think that there are better places for melta in a marine army than in a tactical squad, landspeeders or pintles on LRCs for example. I wasn't suggesting armies with one or the other solely are better, apologies if that's what came across.

Lord Azaghul
11-30-2009, 10:30 AM
As an IG player, I am not a fan of 'going to the enemy' so for me, Vets in a Chimera with meltas is not appealing at all.

I like to hang back with Lascannons, and use Creed to twin link the cannons against vehicles. Its so awesome!

I tend to hang back with my guard and use my vet in reserve to 'hold the line' I run them meltax2 flamer in a chimera.

I use platoons and CCS are great an twin linking hw - but AC seem like the better choice for light vehicles; which far out number av14. I seem to have better like pening landraiders with my bassies, then will meltas.

DarkLink
11-30-2009, 10:53 AM
I play Grey Knights, meaning very little melta (LRC's, IST's and allied Sisters only). It sucks. Grey Knights are great against infantry, but half the time we can't blow up enemy transports to get to said infantry.

Valkerie
11-30-2009, 11:48 AM
You're right. But that is mainly because the anti-tank available to Sisters is melta guns, multi meltas and Exorcists. If you DON'T take melta, you have little to nothing that can damage even light armor. I'm not a real fan of hand to hand attacks against vehicles, moving to get close enough to charge leaves you exposed to a lot of firepower, and if the vehicle has moved, it reduces your chances of even hitting it. With my luck, it's just not effective enough.

RocketRollRebel
11-30-2009, 12:25 PM
Yeah melta is pretty much it when it comes to taking down heavy armor and popping things like oblits but as Chumby said don't get over dependent on it. I ran into horde orks and my melta vets were totally neutered but I feel that flamers are almost a waste of their bs4.

DarkLink
11-30-2009, 02:49 PM
One thing I'm curious about is why is melta still so cheap. In 5th, meltaguns are just about the best way of killing everything except Wave Serpents and Monoliths, yet they're some of the cheapest special weapons out there usually.

Lord Azaghul
11-30-2009, 03:46 PM
One thing I'm curious about is why is melta still so cheap. In 5th, meltaguns are just about the best way of killing everything except Wave Serpents and Monoliths, yet they're some of the cheapest special weapons out there usually.

Actually the question I ask is: Why are plasmas so expensive!

pgarfunkle
11-30-2009, 04:06 PM
I have a couple of meltaguns in my army and have the worst luck with them. In the last couple of games I played with the army I've failed all my rolls to hit with the things lol. The best example was after failing to hit a russ with the meltagun the tactical squad assaulted and managed to blow it up in hand to hand lol

weeble1000
11-30-2009, 07:36 PM
Actually the question I ask is: Why are plasmas so expensive!

No crap. I might take some at 10 points, but at 15 points they are way overpriced. If you put plasmas in a command squad, you're risking a lot of point loss from Gets Hot! unless you add in a 30 point medic. But that's just throwing good points after bad since Feel No Pain on a T3 5+ model is useful for little more than preventing Gets Hot casualties.

DarkLink
11-30-2009, 11:41 PM
Actually the question I ask is: Why are plasmas so expensive!

The problem is, last ed plasma was the way to go. Thus, plasma was expensive.

Now, melta has taken plasma's place as the king, yet the points cost remains the same. Plasma is overpriced, and melta underpriced. It would be more balanced if they switched the costs, I think.


I have a couple of meltaguns in my army and have the worst luck with them. In the last couple of games I played with the army I've failed all my rolls to hit with the things lol. The best example was after failing to hit a russ with the meltagun the tactical squad assaulted and managed to blow it up in hand to hand lol

Last pair of games I played, I got around a dozen shots in with BS 4 meltaguns over the two games, all within 6" of an easy target (side armor of a Vindicator, par exampla). I caused a single Immobilized result, and two stunned results:(.

Earthen
12-01-2009, 01:36 AM
Last pair of games I played, I got around a dozen shots in with BS 4 meltaguns over the two games, all within 6" of an easy target (side armor of a Vindicator, par exampla). I caused a single Immobilized result, and two stunned results:(.


thats just terrible luck :( definitely not the standard result youd get though, haha.




Running a one dimensional army is never a good idea.

Unless you play... vulkan multimelta snipers of DOOOOM!

DUN DUN DUNNNN!



Id have to agree though, you really need upwards of 20 lascannons in an army to make an all las force worthwhile. Alot easier to pick and mix a couple of weapon types, say autocannons and meltas, or lascans and meltas, etc.


@ OP
Fluffwise, the firelords without meltas? really? thats like... the most burninating, incinerating, immoliating weapon in the game. And the firelords arent going to use it?
damn.

As SM, you really do need a couple meltas in the list. theres just not a good way around it unless youve got alot of reliable STR10 floating around

EmperorEternalXIX
12-01-2009, 03:18 AM
Actually the question I ask is: Why are plasmas so expensive! Because people cried about the overpowered ability of the Space Marines to have 6 BS4 plasma guns in an army in 4th edition.

With the current meta game there is no more need for this restriction.

Aldramelech
12-01-2009, 04:06 AM
As an IG player, I am not a fan of 'going to the enemy' so for me, Vets in a Chimera with meltas is not appealing at all.

I like to hang back with Lascannons, and use Creed to twin link the cannons against vehicles. Its so awesome!

Agreed. I don't want the enemy anywhere near 6" to me. Playing against Orks mostly that would mean Ive lost! :eek:

RocketRollRebel
12-01-2009, 07:50 AM
Tanks just got so much tougher that melta weapons have replaced las cannons and Missile Launchers as the top AT weapons of the last edition. So really to be competitive you need to be packing some sort of lance/melta weapon.

The best roll for plasma these days is en mass in a squad shooting at things like 2+ save MC's, MEQ and Terminators. But even with that said I still don't run much plasma these days and I was pretty guilty of Plasma spam back in 4th ed.

Lord Azaghul
12-01-2009, 08:30 AM
Tanks just got so much tougher that melta weapons have replaced las cannons and Missile Launchers as the top AT weapons of the last edition. So really to be competitive you need to be packing some sort of lance/melta weapon.

The best roll for plasma these days is en mass in a squad shooting at things like 2+ save MC's, MEQ and Terminators. But even with that said I still don't run much plasma these days and I was pretty guilty of Plasma spam back in 4th ed.

I still take one or two in my guard army, but its usually in my PCS along with a flamer/melta, and one spare wound. Its part of my all comers list/set up - to take out light armour, termies, and any thing an a squad. The plasma guy still managed to kill himself ever other game.

EmperorEternalXIX
12-01-2009, 10:15 AM
I used to be a huge fan of plasma, but it seems to be less versatile now.

For one thing, it can kill you. I know, I know, my marines have a save...but you know what? It's still not worth the risk, mainly because of one other factor: when it DOES overheat, it also DOESN'T shoot. When you already add in the possibility of a miss and its short range hot zone of 12" and the fact it's used against really tough big stuff primarily, this all adds up to some bad outcomes.

I would never go within 12" of a monstrous creature with a meltagun and expect to get the job done and survive unscathed, but with a plasma gun there is so much more that could go wrong and the monster is just as unpleasant afterward because of the fact that 3 wounds or no wounds a carnifex is a carnifex is a carnifex and it's going to operate at full effect without any issue unless I kill it.

For me the burns are not the issue, it's the fact that the gun utterly misses whenever that happens. Just about any other way to represent this rule would be better, as it quickly gets crazily worthless when you realize it is most effective in the 12" danger zone but can kill you or fail you in a variety of ways.

I'm not saying it should have no downside, but man, is it aggravating to watch your elite troops with these venerable weapons clumsily fail to shoot a giant monster ten feet in front of them.

Chumbalaya
12-01-2009, 10:19 AM
If plasma weren't the most expensive it would have a place, even making it 5 points cheaper brings it back into the field as a viable option.

Lord Azaghul
12-01-2009, 10:35 AM
One 'get around' for the guard is to use 'bring it down'. But it isn't always an option, and has already stated -using a med pack isn't really worth the points.

Droofus
12-02-2009, 10:15 AM
As an ork player, I don't have meltaguns. We skate by on hitting vehicles on rear armor with our mighty power klaws and dreadnought close combat weaponry.

Oh... and killing things with armor 12 or less with lootaz and rokkit fire.

So, if you wanted to do something similar with guard, you'd want to take a huge amount of autocannons and rokkit launchers to make sure that you don't have to deal with AV12 or less, then take Priests with Eviscerators to deal with land raiders (I guess - my orks have problems with raiders). Straken is also a great way of ripping things to pieces, as he essentially has an eviscerator.

Of course, this won't work at all against armor 13 walkers, as a priest is an IC and can be smushed quite easily.

I think you could get by with space marines by adding some chainfist-toting guys or a dreadnought or two. Also, don't forget that all your normal guys have krak grenades. A leman russ goes down to a squad of charging space marines as easily as a rhino does.

Basically, the way to kill vehicles in 5th ed is either melta or close combat. If you shut down the melta route, it basically means that you better get your power klaw ready!

bonedale
12-03-2009, 10:11 AM
Lascannons still rule melta in my book for anti-armor. The Pred Annihilator is far better than most will have you believe. And the new flying version, the Vendetta is going to be spammed in every rich kids IG list. AV14 is just not that popular. And lascannons immobilize them just fine. Always bring melta just like thunderhammers, for when something didn't go according to plan.

EmperorEternalXIX
12-03-2009, 11:00 AM
Then your book needs some editing.

AV14 isn't that popular? Every army that has an AV14 vehicle typically features it as a lynch pin of the list. Land Raiders are in almost ever SM list now, and I have never seen a Guard player without a Leman Russ of some kind. The monolith is also a popular choice still, in my area at least.

Melta is cheaper, does the job better, and can be used more en masse. The only issue is getting close to the enemy, which 9x out of 10 is what you need to do anyway.

No offence, I am just genuinely baffled as to how you could have come to such a conclusion.

Lord Azaghul
12-03-2009, 11:10 AM
In my opinion and experience there is only one ranged weapon that is better then melta for killing armour - that danged tau rail guns. S10 Ap1 - scary.

Lascannons just don't cut it - and cost way too much. I actually find my ordance weapons far more reliabe at killing av14!
And has a guardsmen, a take no less then 2 russ varients in every game - because they are durable! And I to see LR in EVERY marine army out therr.

Duke
12-03-2009, 11:56 AM
Lascannons are dead, long live the king (melta). Anyone who is denying Melta power is in denial. Especailly against AV14.... Sure a Pred is nice with all those Las cannons, but for the same cost (Essentially) I can get 4 MM attack bikes, and if I have Vulkan they are twinlinked. Which one would you rather get shot by if you have a LR? Im betting that 4 TL M attack Bikes are your Land Raiders nightmare.

Duke

sirisaacnuton
12-03-2009, 01:05 PM
I absolutely have to agree with EmperorEternalXIX, and wish I was playing in the areas that Cryl and Bonedale are. In my area, unless you're up against Nids, you have armor 13-14 everywhere you look. Every SM army has 2+ LR's, every IG has X Lemans, the 'Crons bring multiple 'Liths (not that melta does anything there), the Orks are mounted in Battle Wagons, and then everyone else has their AV 13... Predators, Hammerheads, Soul Grinders, Vindicators. It's sad times for my Daemons, whose best anti-tank is a S8 AP1 shot that's not melta (other than the BS3 Railgun on the Grinder, who dies instantly to the melta or lascannons that are everywhere due to all the vehicles). At least for most of them, you can try to maneuver for side shots (though still having cover saves to get past on Orks and Tau), but when my best odds against a LR is for a Bolt of Tzeentch to roll a 6 to glance and a 6 on the table, it's rough playing against LR's full of fleeting TH/SS Termies.

Unfortunately, my other army, 'Nids, is even worse at cracking the vehicles at range. Though at least I can rip them open in combat, if I can ever catch them/hit them/not be killed by Termies first. Still holding out hope that the 'Nid codex can make them competitive in the mech-strosity I live in. The rumors say yes, but the jury's still out.

Melissia
12-03-2009, 02:46 PM
Then your book needs some editing.

AV14 isn't that popular? Every army that has an AV14 vehicle typically features it as a lynch pin of the list. Land Raiders are in almost ever SM list now, and I have never seen a Guard player without a Leman Russ of some kind. The monolith is also a popular choice still, in my area at least.

Melta is cheaper, does the job better, and can be used more en masse. The only issue is getting close to the enemy, which 9x out of 10 is what you need to do anyway.

No offence, I am just genuinely baffled as to how you could have come to such a conclusion.

In my opinion, Monoliths are actually mandatory in larger lists, because of their transport abilities and their WBB bonuses, making 'cron infantry much more survivable and viable.

Mind you, I'm not a 'cron player, and so I don't know the exact rules for it, but I do know that the best 'cron players I know wouldn't want to take a list iwthout one.

sirrouga
12-03-2009, 04:13 PM
Monoliths are great toys with a bunch of sweet/annoying rules but there is one thing that makes them completely different than Land Raiders, Phase Out. You can flat out ignore the monolith and work to phase, which is usually the best thing to attempt for. I find monoliths useful for just about any Necron army, maybe not Destroyer Wing style necron armies which need lots of points to build through or any Necron army looking to be going against Tau a lot, which Tau Railguns laugh at monoliths.

Land Raiders are still fairly popular at my local gaming club, not so much with my small group of friends through. Haven't really seen all the melta stop Land Raiders from coming into games since the stuff inside the land raider is usually worse than the land raider itself and they want you to get that close to the raider.

DarkLink
12-03-2009, 07:31 PM
Melta isn't too much of a problem for Land Raiders in SM lists, because you have a wall of Rhinos to hide behind. They might eventually get to the LR, but by then it's delivered its cargo and shot some stuff up, in all likelyhood.

Grey Knights, on the other hand, have trouble getting those protective Rhinos. We need IST's, Sisters or a mechanized IG platoon to do that. And with how expensive GKs and LRs are, it gets to the point where you either play another army, or live with a severe, near unavoidable weakness.

Sam
12-04-2009, 03:27 PM
My IG tend to do just fine at killing tanks, including land raiders, without meltas. Between lascannon teams, my battle tank, and my vendetta, armor goes away in a hurry. Unless I'm fighting eldar, then I can't seem to kill a d*mn thing.

Edit: And basilisks, they tend to do ok for my as well.

Duke
12-04-2009, 04:22 PM
@ sam: With all that crap firing away I would hope you don't have too hard a time with tanks. But that would be like a SM player saying "With my Las cannon dev squads, my Las Predator, and my Vindicator..." the simple fact is that Melta Weapons are the best wepons for killing vehicles... 2d6 pen, AP1...

Duke

RocketRollRebel
12-04-2009, 07:00 PM
Yeah my AV14 vehicles (either my LR or my Russ's) feel pretty safe when being shot at my las cannons. Meltas and close combat scare the crap out of me and I make sure units like fire dragons are walking early on in the game and at a safe distance.

Mobious
12-04-2009, 07:27 PM
I think IG can do it with mass Lascannons from both Vendettas and heavy weapons teams. Marines on the other hand cannot reliable spam S 9/10 enough to reliably take down heavy armor while still having a balanced army.

Would you consider Devildogs and Vanquishers to be melta as well? Cause if not you could just add a couple devil dog teams and call it a day.

RocketRollRebel
12-04-2009, 07:30 PM
Devil Dogs are melta weapons. Think of them as the plasma cannon of meltas I guess. The vanquisher, especially with pask is just as deadly for sure.

SandWyrm
12-05-2009, 10:04 AM
My IG tend to do just fine at killing tanks, including land raiders, without meltas. Between lascannon teams, my battle tank, and my vendetta, armor goes away in a hurry. Unless I'm fighting eldar, then I can't seem to kill a d*mn thing.

I've written a computer program to simulate actual attack rolls (not mathematical percentages) with various weapons against armored vehicles. Here are the results for some of the weapons we're talking about over 100,000 simulated attack rolls (to remove any luck variations from the results).

Single BS3 Lascannon vs. AV14:
Stopped Target Movement: 10% (Stunned, Immobilized, Wrecked, or Exploded)
Stopped Target Firing: 14% (Shaken, Stunned, Weapon(s) Destroyed, Wrecked, or Exploded)
Destroyed Target: 3% (Wrecked or Exploded)
Did Nothing to Target: 83%

3 BS3 Lascannons Lascannons vs. AV14:
Stopped Target Movement: 26%
Stopped Target Firing: 36%
Destroyed Target: 8%
Did Nothing to Target: 58%

Vendetta (3 Twin-Linked Lascannons) vs. AV14:
Stopped Target Movement: 38%
Stopped Target Firing: 51%
Destroyed Target: 13%
Did Nothing to Target: 42%

3 BS4 (Veteran) Meltas at half-range vs. AV14:
Stopped Target Movement: 77%
Stopped Target Firing: 80%
Destroyed Target: 52%
Did Nothing to Target: 14%

Melissia
12-05-2009, 10:54 AM
(to remove any luck variations from the results).Which you failed to do. If you rely on actual rolls, yes, they ARE going to involve luck and you will see variation, oftentimes extreme variation. You could do this another thousand times, an each time get a different result, sometimes dramatically different.

The actual mathhammer percentages, however, do not change.

DarkLink
12-05-2009, 12:42 PM
Which you failed to do. If you rely on actual rolls, yes, they ARE going to involve luck and you will see variation, oftentimes extreme variation. You could do this another thousand times, an each time get a different result, sometimes dramatically different.

The actual mathhammer percentages, however, do not change.

Actually, with over 100,000 data points, it is effectively statistically impossible for there to be a significant luck bias. It's been a while since I took statistics in high school, but the error is going to be extremely low (as in non-existent) when you have that much data.

That said, there's no reason why percentages don't do the exact same thing. In fact, I recall off the top of my head that a BS3 lascannon shooting a LR has about a 3% chance of destroying it (don't recall exactly). That matches up pretty well with his data. I would expect that if someone did the mathhammer, they would get very results as he did.

Edit: Here's a chart with 1000 data points. Look at how close it represents the probability of getting heads or tails, using a fair coin. He used 100,000 data points.
http://www.time2use.com/Statistics/chapter-3_files/image006.gif

Melissia
12-05-2009, 12:44 PM
Statistically improbable, but possible. I agree that they'd get similar results, I just think that his methods are unnecessary and even kinda stupid, like why would you go through that much trouble when we already know for a fact the various percentages for the rolls? No need to re-invent the wheel.

DarkLink
12-05-2009, 01:07 PM
Statistically improbable, but possible. I agree that they'd get similar results, I just think that his methods are unnecessary and even kinda stupid, like why would you go through that much trouble when we already know for a fact the various percentages for the rolls? No need to re-invent the wheel.

Yeah, I agree with that. Though I don't think it would be too hard to write a program on a computer to simulate the probabilities, it's even easier just to do a little basic math and get exact* percentages.

*Though, interestingly enough, there is some bias in actual dice. IIRC, there's actually about a 21% chance of rolling a 1 on a standard GW dice. Someone did a statistical study by physically rolling a not-so-proverbial fudge-ton of dice. They even did a bunch of physics calculations, and all sorts of crazy stuff.

So really, everything we do to calculate these averages will be a little off, except physically roll a bazillion dice of various type, because dice are imperfect random number generators.

SandWyrm
12-05-2009, 03:04 PM
Which you failed to do. If you rely on actual rolls, yes, they ARE going to involve luck and you will see variation, oftentimes extreme variation. You could do this another thousand times, an each time get a different result, sometimes dramatically different.

I took that into account. My initial test runs were 100 attack rolls each, resulting in variations of 15% or more. So I just kept adding zeros until the variations between tests were less than 1%. Darklink has explained it more formally than I can.


The actual mathhammer percentages, however, do not change.

Yes, but it's extremely difficult to do these tests using a simple equation. A lot of logic is required as well to account for things like wrecks or immobilizations resulting from all of a tank's weapons being destroyed. Or the possibility that all your penetrating hits roll ones. The program I wrote is 300 lines long in order to account for these and other factors like cover, open-topped, extra armor, etc.

Notice, for instance, that the likelihood of 3 lascannons, when firing together, of blowing up a Land Raider is 8%, not 9% as it would be if you simply tripled the single-lascannon score. I can also tell you from my results that adding a second weapon to a tank increases it's survivability by 1%, but adding further weapons adds no noticeable benefits. Or that cover does not reduce your likelihood of being damaged by half, but by between 30% and 50% depending on how many shots are coming your way.

Edit:

3 Vendettas (3 Twin-Linked Lascannons) vs. AV14:
Stopped Target Movement: 76%
Stopped Target Firing: 89%
Destroyed Target: 36%
Did Nothing to Target: 7%

3 BS4 (Veteran) Meltas at half-range vs. AV14:
Stopped Target Movement: 77%
Stopped Target Firing: 80%
Destroyed Target: 52%
Did Nothing to Target: 14%

But as for our original discussion, it would take 3 Vendettas firing together in a squadron to roughly equal the movement-stopping power or shooting-stopping power of a single melta vet squad. But those 3 Vendettas would still only have 69% of the likelihood those vets have to actually kill the tank.

3 Vendettas also costs 390 points, whereas a Vet Chimelta costs just 155.

Ajjaxx
12-05-2009, 04:06 PM
As an imperial guard/black Templar/sisters of battle/grey knights, I find melta has a place in 5th ed and that is undeniable. However, melta SPAM is not necessary by any means. In my guard army that has yet to have any issues with any tank of any sort, with only 3-6 melta guns. I usually have 3 vet squads with 3 melta, 3 plasma, and 3 flamers. My ace in the hole anti-heavy tank is the manticore. Multiple barrage with the ability to resolve on SIDE armor with 2d6 (take the highest) armor pen, makes for dead, dead, DEAD tanks! No cover save makes it wonderful against the big mek battle wagon rush, or the flying fish of the tau. Even those pesky landraiders don't stand up to them with impunity. Melta is a backup for my guard army due to many other viable options for anti tank. Flip side sisters have NO choice in the matter. Melta spam is not spam per Se, but taking one of two special weapons. Grey knights I bring the sisters.....Problem solved. Finally my black Templar are the final ones. I use lascannons, they are still good to have for AV 12-13 tanks and have a chance at the AV 14 tanks. I bring a melta in every squad (usually 4-6) but also have lascannons and on occasion chainfists/powerfists to back it up. Little tanks are easy enough to kill, but melta in a marine army is a necessary to kill off the landraiders. Melta SPAM however is not necessary to play your army effectivly.

Sam
12-06-2009, 01:07 AM
I been going through some army concepts and looking into Space Marines and Imperial Guard and looking into having little to none melta in my armies. Partly due to all the spam going around and to fit my army concepts more (Brotherhood of Nod Imperial Guard and Fire Lords Space Marines are the two I'm looking into right now).

So are there ways to do no melta lists with these armies or are meltas just too good to pass up?

That is the queston being asked here. Are there ways to do no melta lists? Hell yes. Are meltas too good to pass up? No.

Are they more effective when standing 6in or less from the target? Of course. But that does not mean you NEED them.

As to the statistics post showing how much more likely meltas are to damage the target, while taking luck out of the equation: You're talking to a guy who played CC based Imperial Guard for 3-weeks straight and lost one game. One. And believe me, I crammed a lot of games into those three weeks. My armies live on luck.