Accuracy of Rumour mongers

[Denzark]

I was reading through a now-closed thread on Chaos supplements, and someone osted the following interesting link:

http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/448304.page

Which shows rumour mongers against accuracy.

Now I know this is slightly flawed as a measure of effect for the following reasons:

1. Whilst it would be possible to verify the data therein, ie who posted what and when, I for one don't know for certain as I don't follow everyone's postings. So for example if the author poppoed in that Rumour monger A popped in a rumour about a life-sized bust of the Emperor's testicles coming out in October, and actually Rumour Monger A said no such thing, I wouldn't know the difference.

2. I don't know how they account for whether or not the rumourer is publishing their own-acquired rumours, or just re-publishing someone elses.

3. I don't know how they acount for when a rumour thread like the ones on BoLS, is updated in the same thread - is that one count or is it one per update?



However i find the data interesting. Of note, our Eldargal is rated as 50% accurate, with BigRed batting about 33%.


How does anybody else rate accuracy of the rumour millers?

[eldargal]

My entry has an inaccuracy:

New WOC Character that is an elf FALSE
I never said this, I said there was a female witch character spotted that may have been for WoC or it may have been an Elf, not that it was an Elf WoC. If somsone with an account on Dakkadakka wants to point this out to someone that would be nice, not a big issue though.

[Denzark]

And thats what I mean by point 1 - I cannot speak for the veracity of the 'ratings'. I definitely can't go on dakka to tell them though - I am monogamous in my wargames sites

[Psychosplodge]

But the car park lap is accurate? O_O

[Kirsten]

pics! :p

[Cap'nSmurfs]

To be fair to BigRed, he's an aggregator rather than a rumour monkey himself. What you tend to see here is what other people are saying; thus the low strike rate because there's an awful lot of guff out there.

[eldargal]

But the car park lap is accurate? O_O

No it isn't, but the Repanse de Lyonesse bit is.:p

Well, the rumour is accurate but I've lost faith in that particular source so I expect it will be false in the end.

[daboarder]

To be fair to BigRed, he's an aggregator rather than a rumour monkey himself. What you tend to see here is what other people are saying; thus the low strike rate because there's an awful lot of guff out there.

Yeah you have to use your head when reading through that list, Bigred and faiet are both more like news anchors, in that they report the info they don't investigate it so to speak. Its mostly good for picking up on those habitual liars like Stickmonkey. Also good to keep as a record for those people that spoute a load of crap and then try to claim later that it was "all just speculation" ala thedarkgeneral/

It also doesnt take into account things like "I rumour there will be a plastic kit released" thee "obvious things are often attributed as true, when its still likely they are entirely guess work.

[Cap'nSmurfs]

Right. The trick with rumours is to develop your own sense of what you believe and what you don't. Personally, I tend to be sceptical of stuff we hear a long way out from release; stuff which is a perennial rumour and a perennial no-show (Blood Bowl, plastic Thunderhawk - until I see otherwise, these things are on the same level of reality as my personal unicorn army); stuff which is coming from a single source which nobody else seems to have cottoned on to (man I'm so excited for the new Codex: Hrud!!!!); stuff which feels like community groupthink ("everyone else is getting a huge walker so therefore Space Marines must also"; this one turned out to be a misunderstanding of what the Centurions were); and finally, stuff which seems like a mishmash of drastic, uncharacteristic changes which people are curiously positive about (that bogus 6th ed "leak").

Not that any of the above means that the rumour is necessarily wrong. I'm just generally sceptical when it comes to rumours, the above are Warning Signs, as far as I'm concerned.

[Mr Mystery]

God I hate going on Dakka. It's like a Dementor. It just sucks all happiness from you.

But interesting nonetheless.

[Skullchewer]

Interesting comment about Dakka. I've been using Dakka since I came back the hobby, but recently I've been drifting more towards this site, as it just seems a friendlier, more positive environment.

[Psychosplodge]

The other forums imo take themselves too seriously...

[Mr Mystery]

Dakka is a festering pit of hate and arrogance.

Blech.

[Skullchewer]

Skullchewer attempts to drag the thread back on topic.
I am dubious about trusting most rumours (Probably because I'm a grumpy old fart) unless they're from established sources with some kind of history of accuracy, or legit looking evidence.
Skullchewer rolls a 1!

[Psychosplodge]

A 1? you need a double on 2D12 to get that outcome...

[HsojVvad]

But the car park lap is accurate? O_O

For us non English English reading people what is a car park lap? :P

[Psychosplodge]

Apparently it was claimed on Dakka if x rumour wasn't true EG would run round a car park naked. Or complete a lap of the car park.

It really requires the context of having read the thread Denzark posted at the top.

[eldargal]

Yup, which was a joke by someone else, I never said it.

[Lexington]

Right. The trick with rumours is to develop your own sense of what you believe and what you don't.
This. This, this, this, this, thisthisthis. After a while, you can just tell which rumors "feel" right. It's not 100% accurate, but having read rumors since the portent.cix.co.uk days, I can attest to this sort of sense developing.


(that bogus 6th ed "leak")
Just a little quibble - that 6th Ed document was a legitimate leak, albeit one that was probably a very early playtest. The biggest proof of this being the few bits that came through to the final ruleset almost unscathed (Precision Shots come to mind), but you can also detect the same particular approach to game design being used, such as grafting new systems onto the old ones.

[DrBored]

I don't usually keep track of who is posting what rumor. What matters to me is 'what makes business sense', or 'what's the middle ground here', as that gives me a sense of comfort, and ends up being what happens, for better or worse. It's easy for me to pick out wishlisting, when an army just seems to get this bucket of rumors that seem too good to be true, or a rumor where an army will get too many kits or too many special rules. On the other hand, when rumors come out debunking certain things, then I start to get worried because I do *want* armies to get more, just not excess...

It's a sense that I'm still developing.

[Cap'nSmurfs]

Just a little quibble - that 6th Ed document was a legitimate leak, albeit one that was probably a very early playtest. The biggest proof of this being the few bits that came through to the final ruleset almost unscathed (Precision Shots come to mind), but you can also detect the same particular approach to game design being used, such as grafting new systems onto the old ones.

That's evidence, but it's not proof. But then, it's up to us to decide for ourselves what we believe, isn't it? ;)

[Alrik_40000]

Right. The trick with rumours is to develop your own sense of what you believe and what you don't. Personally, I tend to be sceptical of stuff we hear a long way out from release; stuff which is a perennial rumour and a perennial no-show (Blood Bowl, plastic Thunderhawk - until I see otherwise, these things are on the same level of reality as my personal unicorn army); stuff which is coming from a single source which nobody else seems to have cottoned on to (man I'm so excited for the new Codex: Hrud!!!!); stuff which feels like community groupthink ("everyone else is getting a huge walker so therefore Space Marines must also"; this one turned out to be a misunderstanding of what the Centurions were); and finally, stuff which seems like a mishmash of drastic, uncharacteristic changes which people are curiously positive about (that bogus 6th ed "leak").

Not that any of the above means that the rumour is necessarily wrong. I'm just generally sceptical when it comes to rumours, the above are Warning Signs, as far as I'm concerned.


There's also a certain amount of "crossed wires" that occurs with these rumors as well. As far as the Space Marines go, there were rumors a few months ago on several websites that not only would Space Marines be getting a new suit of armor that was bigger than a Dreadnought (our spiffy new Centurions), they would also be getting an MC-type armor. That particular element of the rumor turned out to be slightly untrue - that particular unit was actually the Castellax from Forge World. There are several Forge World items that have been confused for mainstream 40k releases, such as the rumors of a specialized unit of Terminators for the Salamanders (to accompany a Codex Supplement) - those are actually a unit of proto-Hammernators for the Sallies in the Horus Heresy books.

Those aren't the only "crossed wires" that have occured, though. Going back a few years though, I remember several rumors that were basically correct, but assigned to the wrong army. Think back to before the Dice Like Thounder crew became The Eternal Warriors. There were several rumors reported on their show from a source calling himself "Fireman Guy." The rumors ended up being mostly accurate, although there were a couple of exceptions. When they were reporting Blood Angels rumors on the show, they mentioned a rumor of a "Winged Drop Pod" that was Armor 12 and could drop a squad off an then take off again. That was, quite obviously, the Stormraven Gunship. They also mentioned a new Honor Guard kit, which ended up being the Sanguinary Guard.

There was another rumor, though, that as a result of some fluff changes in the new BA codex they would be getting a new scout kit. The models in this new BA-specific Scout box were said to have a very "Mad Max" vibe to them - leather armor, bizarre weapons, weird gauntlets and hairstyles. There was also a rumor that their Techmarines would have strange-looking servitors "like mutated Ogryn" carrying unusual weaponry. Those models never showed up with the new Blood Angel kits... Now, go take a quick look at the Dark Eldar Wyches. Wouldn't you say those models have sort of a "Mad Max" vibe to them? Don't the Grotesques look like "mutated Orgyn with weird weapons"?

Speaking of the Dark Eldar, there were a lot of rumors from "Fireman Guy" about them as well. There was a rumor that they would have a piece of wargear that would allow them to drag a character out of a squad so they could be killed easier, which seemed too OP to most people, but turned out to be true. There were also rumors that they would have a "War of the Worlds"-style tripod that fired a heat-based "Death Ray". Neither of those things appeared for the Dark Eldar, but fast-forward a few months and the Necrons get a walker that looks suspiciously like a tripod (with more legs, though) that fires a "Heat Ray", and a Doom Scythe whose primary weapon is the "Death Ray"!

About a year or so ago, there was a rumor that Chaos were getting a dragon in their new codex. A lot of people said there was "no way" that was happening and that it must be a new dragon for Fantasy, or the model for Smaug from The Hobbit...

Oh, hai Heldrake!

The point to take away from all that is the rumor mill occasionally misidentifies things.

[El_Davo]

I also like how they rate Bigred and BoLS separately. I thought they were the same thing? and the Crimson hunter is a warrior aspect, so technically you're right about that too eldargal. so really, how accurate is the accuracy of the rumour monger compiler guy?

[Mr Mystery]

Rumours are rumours.

Going back over the list from Dakka, I don't like how they've categorised things as 'false'. Inaccurate is the better word for it, as it gives benefit of doubt that something may have been misconstrued, rather than outright made up!

[daboarder]

Rumours are rumours.

Going back over the list from Dakka, I don't like how they've categorised things as 'false'. Inaccurate is the better word for it, as it gives benefit of doubt that something may have been misconstrued, rather than outright made up!

They also have "vague" but for the most part certain things deserve false, take thedarkgenerals chaos splurge.

[SON OF ROMULOUS]

Take all rumors with a grain of salt as the general rule of thumb unless you've seen them for your self or they are coming directly from some one that you know is working on them as opposed to 3rd party intel. the rumors that come from a guy who has a friend who heard from a guy who was on the trolly is almost as good as that guy at the bar who's done everything....

[StraightSilver]

Well first of all I'll point out that I stay well out of the rumours game these days.

The main reason being that they were just that, rumours but suddenly they started to be taken as fact and every rumour monger then felt obliged to prove themselves and their accuracy which isn't always possible but also took any fun out of it.

The Dakka thread is a comprehensive list but it's all taken way too literally.

As an example I heard that Chaos Legions would be getting their own books. This in fairness was assumed by everyone, including me that the new Dex would be Legion specific.

It turns out that what was being discussed was the FW Heresy books.

However we then got the Black Legion supplement, which hasn't been updated on the list.

But I do get it wrong, a lot of my Tau stuff was off and I think I rate about 50% too.

However I still believe a lot of my Nid stuff is correct, it just hasn't been released yet but again that gets me a red mark.

I do think there is a place for these kind of lists but what needs to be remembered is the fact that the design team can be 3-4 years ahead so if somebody hears something it might take a while.

But people like Ghost21 did spoil it a bit, but that shouldn't stop people posting.

I am lucky enough to visit GW HQ on a semi regular basis but I don't post up most of what I hear because the rumour game now often ends in a flame war.

[eldargal]

I also like how they rate Bigred and BoLS separately. I thought they were the same thing? and the Crimson hunter is a warrior aspect, so technically you're right about that too eldargal. so really, how accurate is the accuracy of the rumour monger compiler guy?
Good point, but all I was told and repeated was 'new Aspect(s)' so not sure I can really claim to have got it right on a technicality. Still if someone wants to point that out to a Dakka mod be my guest.:p

[Bigred]

In theory they could rate "bigred" and "bols" separately as we do put out rumors ourselves regularly in addition to the collated ones from elsewhere. But under that model the "bols" rating would just be a general rumorsphere barometer for everything from everywhere rolled together.

It would also be a colossal hassle to keep track of...

But in any case, anyone who still has rumor stuff and doesn't want to face the fiery flames of the masses personally, can just PM me and I'll get stuff out.

I don't even feel it anymore. I'm like a rumor-Avatar of Khaine: immune to flamer and melta :)

[Psychosplodge]

BTW BR the mystery box, LE squat army. Just saying...

[Denzark]

BTW BR the mystery box, LE squat army. Just saying...

I'd buy that for a dollar...

[Chris*ta]

I'd buy that for a dollar...

And the last time that GW designed a Squat mini, you might have got it!

Also, @ Psychosplodge: BR? LE?

Ai doo naht ahndrrstaend yrr nrrd laengwidge.

[Psychosplodge]

BigRed, Limited Edition.