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Flammenwerfer13
07-05-2013, 10:12 AM
Investing GW seems interesting.
We as gamers can mostly agree GW has done a horrible job with Public relations and setting up a viable long term business model. With the vast majority of it's claims in the CH vs GW lawsuit getting thrown out and being mostly defeated in it's efforts to dominate the market for 3rd Party Add-ons failing bad the question is what is GW plan in the long term going to be to address all the problems it's short term gains are creating?

Lets start with very random assessment.
http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Games_Workshop_GRP_%28LON:GAW%29

Now the stocks seem to say otherwise here.
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=GAW:LN
https://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GAW.L

While this article (mostly locked sadly) is showing that GW is growing but other areas are starting to slack.
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2013/01/21/tips-and-ideas/share-tips/tips-of-the-week/games-workshop-in-winning-streak-4PSX1vr0eRMsnTPE3eD1jI/article.html

Seems even last year this topic was being worked over almost verbatim. (very good read in the comments)
http://www.iii.co.uk/news-opinion/richard-beddard/games-workshop-two-minutes


Looking through the comments I came across this
https://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?type=&code=cotn%3AGAW.L&it=le&display=discussion&action=detail&id=10489930

"Today’s deal with Roadhouse is the ninth we know of, joining existing agreements with Creative Assembly, Slitherine, Zattikka, Rodeo, Full Control, Cynanide and Nomad Games. EA’s Mythic studio is closing down its F2P Warhammer title at the end of the month."

Can we as a community piece together all the titles out there in the works or being played?



Seems as you read all the investors they all come to the same general conclusion. GW Shares are a bit too pricey but with the profits steady for the last few years it might be worth it. They question the price hike increases but are willing to accept it for now as it's not showing overt hard to profits and GW is looking to be viable long term for now.

Mr Mystery
07-05-2013, 10:50 AM
Meh.

Invest, and you probably won't lost your money, but don't expect big returns or dividends. Wrong market entirely.

3rd party market? Massively overrated. CH took $100,000US. GW? Millions......

What we have is a company in cash growth in a tricky economy...

Bigred
07-05-2013, 10:54 AM
The interesting part is the flurry of activity in 3rd party licensing this year:


"Today’s deal with Roadhouse is the ninth we know of, joining existing agreements with Creative Assembly, Slitherine, Zattikka, Rodeo, Full Control, Cynanide and Nomad Games. EA’s Mythic studio is closing down its F2P Warhammer title at the end of the month."

But the big problem is those are all teensy games from tiny developers that will have miniscule sales. It looks like GW is scrambling to make up for the loss of the big important licenses that matter like THQ, and EA before them. Those mega games with multi-million dollar budgets are what bring in the licensing revenue.

And looking at the big picture, GW's IP isn't the glimmering gold they wish it were.

THQ has uneven success with the licence. Basicaly Relic is an amazing developer and their Dawn of War series sold like hotcakes. But the pricey Space Marine, did not meet expectations. Vigil, crashed and burned on the MMO, and even industry giant EA couldnt get Warhammer Online off the ground. That one in particular was a monstrous waste of investment. I've heard budget rumors between 15-25 million all in for Warhammer Online. I'm sure at some point here in the near future, when some contract term expires, EA will quietly pull the plug on the servers.

I'm not sure the big studios will pay top dollar anymore for such an unpredictable license. GW isn't Star Wars, or LotR.

eldargal
07-05-2013, 10:57 AM
GW have licensed to Creative Assembly, hardly teensy.

Bigred
07-05-2013, 11:04 AM
At this point I dont trust Fantasy to have any legs in the videogames genre. Fantasy has gone from failure to failure over it's last few licensed titles.

Now 40K they can do some stuff with, so I'm watching to see what SEGA does with the pieces they bought off of THQ. That could go places.

But in any case these major games are years off.

Mr Mystery
07-05-2013, 11:06 AM
MMOs.... Remember, even WOW is shedding players faster than attracting them. Conclusive of nowt I'll grant you, but let's not look at things in isolation eh?

As for GW on its Todd? 10% growth in the US for 2011/2012..... $66,000,000ish turnover (not profit, sales) from $60,000,000..... Not too shabby.

eldargal
07-05-2013, 11:06 AM
Ordinarily I'd agree, the concepts for the licensed WFB games have been flawed from the start. But Creative Assembly have never produced a dud yet as far a I'm aware.

troglodytesrus
07-05-2013, 01:19 PM
Short term I view GW as a decent investment, small growth for the next couple of years I expect. This from my own view and knowledge of GW rather than any solid news, just my feelings.
However long term I am predicting the price bubble to burst and things to start going downhill what with 3rd parties, 3rd printing and overextension of prices.

GrauGeist
07-05-2013, 02:15 PM
GW is a Hold, not a Buy. GW will continue driving solid profit, but their big growth is over, hence focusing on cost cutting with things like 1-man stores, no bunkers, no events, no metal, no Specialist Games. GW will squeeze ever more profit from ever fewer sales, hence $50 artbooks like "Codex" Iyanden.

Caitsidhe
07-05-2013, 02:36 PM
I see Games Workshop as valuable only for attempts to make small profits by selling short, i.e. having to buy and then watch to drop it off fast. I agree with the others who feel that the company's days of real growth are behind it. It isn't going anywhere and will be a relatively safe investment, but there won't be any massive gains on it.

Kamin_Majere
07-06-2013, 12:11 AM
Many moons ago I made a small profit from GW after investing in them, but now days I don't think I would. While still making money they aren't growing (and are infact shrinking as a company) there is only so long they can do that before the place is a skeleton. By that point i'm not sure if they will attempt to expand again or just try to ride out everything; so I no longer feel comfortable keeping any of my money in them

ctreleheb
07-06-2013, 08:06 PM
Buying the models and holding them seems like a better investment to me. Baneblade price went up 40+% in what, 5 yrs. You don't see the gw stock making those numbers. Kinda ironic that model prices go up more % than stock.

Defenestratus
07-06-2013, 08:19 PM
At this point I dont trust Fantasy to have any legs in the videogames genre. Fantasy has gone from failure to failure over it's last few licensed titles.

Now 40K they can do some stuff with, so I'm watching to see what SEGA does with the pieces they bought off of THQ. That could go places.

But in any case these major games are years off.

The problem with fantasy is that - if you want to make a fantasy video game you don't *have to* license GW's IP. Its all based on tolkien-types and basic lore and thats out there for anyone to use. I just finished up playing The Witcher 2 - which has elves and dwarves and mages and even a big bad evil dude army complete with monsters.

Why would you actually pay GW for a WHFB license when you can just pull from the existing free ideas out there already in the genre.

Bigred
07-06-2013, 11:01 PM
That is indeed true Defenestratus.

It's not that Fantasy's IP isn't in depth and exhaustive - it is.

Its more of a question from the software developer's point of view - is the IP so unique and well known it is worth the license fee versus just making stuff up on your own using general fantasy tropes.

I can tell you after being in the video games industry for a while that video game designers/writers have a very high opinion of their own creativity. :)

cebalrai
07-07-2013, 03:05 AM
What happens to GW investors when 3D printers become cheap and accessible?

Mr Mystery
07-07-2013, 04:56 AM
Very little I'd imagine, as few people are thieves, comparatively speaking.

That and I'd imagine GW may make the design available on a pay per print basis...

Assuming of course the machines get suitable resolution in the home, without being pointlessly expensive.

Wildeybeast
07-11-2013, 01:44 PM
But the pricey Space Marine, did not meet expectations.

From what I've heard from friends in the industry, Space Marine actually did much better than anyone expected to and they were disappointed they didn't make more a push advertising it as it could have done even better. The online community died a bit when they released DLC that broke the game, but otherwise it's been a success. Rumours of Space Marine 2 abound.