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Bigred
08-02-2012, 10:53 AM
This may be one of the most interesting posts on a rumor forum I've seen in a long time.

Not so much for what its saying about the specific rumors, but much more importantly what is says about HOW, WHERE, and WHY rumors exist.

via Warseer: (http://www.warseer.com/forums/showthread.php?347147-Flyers-inbound&p=6351682&viewfull=1#post6351682)


I was told, that GW is trying to invert their release order. Instead of two follow up waves after a Codex release they will release one or two smaller waves of models before every codex, one big release with the codex and some stragglers thereafter (mainly re-releases and model updates). This is widely known and not hard to deduce. But I was also told that this is only a test run for two upcoming releases and GW is fully prepared to switch back to the old modus operandi or a completely different release schedule. GW has used the period of reduced LotR activity to produce new ranges far in advance. GW sits on a whole pile of army books/codexes and finished masters and has the flexibility to alter their release schedule seamlessly. The next two releases (Warriors of Chaos and Dark Angels) follow the old pattern, but the next two releases (Tau and Eldar) after these are deployed in the new fashion. The Tau Codex was pushed back because of this, but only the book. The first batch of models will be released even earlier than planned (maybe even this year) – and yes, there are Kroots and no, there is no Lamprey – this whole set of rumours is 105% fake. GW has tighten their information policy for all releases around the end of the year. This includes everything not just the Hobbit stuff because one major source of info are business plans and logistics tables that are shared with subsidiaries and external companies. Most unregulated sources sit at one of those joints. The blackout period lasts from October to February and ends there because it is not sustainable for a long time. There will be no wave of fliers this year outside of the blackout period (my source does not know if one is planned for this period or not, but if it is the info is definitely not avaible for regional distributors - whatever that is). One last bit: GW has buried the plastic character stop gap and switched to multi-part finecast kits, with emphasis on “multi-part”. The sheer number of bit of these kits is on par with plastic releases. The first kit will be the re-modeled Avatar. The four Greater Demons are worked on. All of them will be larger than their predecessors and come with a lot of variety.

(First and last post with this account)

So where to start...

First off this:

GW has used the period of reduced LotR activity to produce new ranges far in advance. GW sits on a whole pile of army books/codexes and finished masters and has the flexibility to alter their release schedule seamlessly.

Then this:

GW has tighten their information policy for all releases around the end of the year. This includes everything not just the Hobbit stuff because one major source of info are business plans and logistics tables that are shared with subsidiaries and external companies.

And most importantly this:

Most unregulated sources sit at one of those joints. The blackout period lasts from October to February and ends there because it is not sustainable for a long time.

So what this tells us is GW has been very busy indeed, stocking up on inventory and various codices and model ranges far in advance of the actual release dates. This was apparently done to give them a "full hand" to play with, so they have a set of products ready to ship at any point based on needs of the business and changing market conditions. The counter argument is that by modern business standards this is monetarily wasteful and against the mantra of accurate forecasting and just-in-time inventory management that preaches that manufacturers should have effectively zero inventory, and be producing exactly what is required to meet market conditions - no more, and no less.

Next up is the entire "New Line Clampdown" is perhaps a fabrication and that instead is just GW experimenting with internal information control. The Hobbit Blackout period instead seems to be a somewhat smaller window covering all products from October 2012 to February 2013.

Finally is the real gem that most "unregulated sources" (~read leakers) come from the points in the organizational chain where schedule and product details that are necessary for the business to function leave the company and move to business partners and 3rd parties. This tells me that while GW may clamp down as hard as they can internally, there will always be a certain degree of leaks unless they became a true vertical monopoly, and owned every store that carried their lines, along with the suppliers, and shippers as well (which will never occur).

Very interesting read.

Scripts
08-02-2012, 11:25 AM
Because GW is a retail product, it makes sense that the leaks occur once you get into the distribution chain and you start bringing in those that help sell the product for you (3rd party distributors/Review Sites/News Sites/whatever).

I would think that they would have a greater risk of issues with product sitting in a warehouse for a long period of time though, since warehouse workers who work for the company are either a) fans, or b) know of sites that like to post rumors, etc.

Stockpiling product in an attempt to be able to juggle their schedule if they want is both good and bad. Its bad because they might have ordered too many of a set that people don't want, or not enough of a set people do want, and then run into supply issues later. Its good because if they are waiting for 1 last piece for one of the lines, and it doesn't make it to them in time for rollout (IE: poor production numbers of a finecast piece or a machine issue at one of the manufacturing locations that makes 1 critical piece all of the models use), they can roll out a different product line that month instead.

Just in time is good for a lot of things, but it seems like it may not work as well for GW since all of their manufacturing (models and paint) is primarily in 1 country (UK) and they are then supplying all of their regions from that one location. Transit, etc., would be a major limiting factor on how quickly they would be able to resupply specific regions with new product. That may force them to stockpile product so that they can properly stock in anticipation of a major release. However, they may feel that they can't justify starting up owned factories in the US/Asia to make their product due to QA issues/Secrecy concerns/General Cost/etc.

At the end of the day, they are pretty much shipping air across the oceans. The box is nice, and the sprues are nice, but the box weight is mostly air. A plasics company I used to work for made products for customers as close as possible to the customer's bottling site so that they would be able to minimize transit costs. I'm guessing someone inside GW did the math on opening up regional manufacturing sites, but they can't quite justify it based on sales volume and start-up costs and all the other intagibles we, as the comsumer, don't know about.

Wildeybeast
08-02-2012, 11:35 AM
I would think that they would have a greater risk of issues with product sitting in a warehouse for a long period of time though, since warehouse workers who work for the company are either a) fans, or b) know of sites that like to post rumors, etc.

Unless they are storing stuff in a 3rd party warehouse (where people wouldn't care about the product) the warehouse workers will be GW employees and subject to the same control as the folk in the design studio.

Bigred
08-02-2012, 11:45 AM
@Scripts
GW has manufacturing centers in the UK and the US. I'm uncertain if any manufacturing occurs in Australia. I would assume that the most distant markets from a distribution standpoint would be Australia, Japan, and South America. With regular shipments by sea, transit and customs would take a month tops, by air only a handful of days.

The thing that would worry me as an investor is all the talk of finished pallets of some ranges said to be sitting in warehouses for upwards of a year waiting for a proper release window to occur.


@Wildeybeast
At the risk of being called insensitive, I'll just say that after working for several manufacturers over the decades:

The level of corporate control over both information and employees is somewhat different between the blue-collar world of warehousing and the white-collar world of product development. In general, when stuff gets into a warehouse, word starts to spread.

Scripts
08-02-2012, 12:30 PM
MFG in the US - Makes sense, since NA is largest market outside of the UK/EU. I would guess they supply South America out of North America (shorter transit time). Do they do any of the finecast stuff in the US, or is that all UK based?

@Wildeybeast - Regarding "line" staff (Warehouse/MFG/Retail/etc.) versus "corporate" staff (Designers/Sculptors/Game Testers/Other Corporate functions): I agree completely with Bigred. I've supported IT in a Distribution environment for consumer goods (Movies/Music/Books) in the past, and it was amazing some of the stuff that went on in the warehouses when new stuff came in. Broken Street dates were a significant concern, but just general theft was another. If this stuff is sitting in a GW warehouse somewhere, I expect they are paying a pretty penny for security either around the stock itself, or for the site location in general. Otherwise, you'd be seeing stuff up on EBay, pictures on BOLS of the finished boxes, etc., well before intended release.

Incoming wall of text regarding Inventory:

Sitting on Inventory: I think the main question here is this: how long are they sitting on the inventory? Is it one of those deals where they start making their stock for the year today, and expect to sell through it by the end of the FY, or did they start making the stock last FY, take the inventory cost hit last FY, knowing that they expected to sell the product this year, and expect to recoup the inventory costs from last year back, and then some? If they did the former (start production at the beginning of the FY in anticipation of selling through this FY) then it shouldn't impact profitablilty too much. If they did the later (start producing last FY, and take a significant inventory hit), then it probably did impact profitability for the prior FY. Somethings they likely needed to do that with (the 6e book and assorted 6e goodies) but I guess we'd need to know what the timeframe is for final approval of a model, start of production, and then final roll out to determine that.

Couldn't we figure that out by looking at the chaos demon models being released this weekend though, especially if its a new/revised model? Don't the Sprue's have manufacturing dates on them? We could at least gauge when production of those models started (assuming the model is a "revised" model of the original, or a plastic conversion of a metal model). This would at least give us an idea of when they started production. I picked up a Tau battle box and most of the sprues were either Copyright 2005 or 2009, as were the bases. This would at least give us a general idea, from a year standpoint, of when production potentially started.

Just thinking out loud. Sorry for the wall of text. I have a little bit of insight into distribution from personal experience and a little bit of insight into inventory control/cost management from my significant other's experience.

Houghten
08-02-2012, 01:50 PM
one last bit: Gw has buried the plastic character stop gap and switched to multi-part finecast kits
hidden lowercase!
SON OF A---WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY?

StarWarsDoug
08-02-2012, 02:07 PM
@Scripts
GW has manufacturing centers in the UK and the US. I'm uncertain if any manufacturing occurs in Australia. I would assume that the most distant markets from a distribution standpoint would be Australia, Japan, and South America. With regular shipments by sea, transit and customs would take a month tops, by air only a handful of days.

The thing that would worry me as an investor is all the talk of finished pallets of some ranges said to be sitting in warehouses for upwards of a year waiting for a proper release window to occur.


@Wildeybeast
At the risk of being called insensitive, I'll just say that after working for several manufacturers over the decades:

The level of corporate control over both information and employees is somewhat different between the blue-collar world of warehousing and the white-collar world of product development. In general, when stuff gets into a warehouse, word starts to spread.

FWIW,
GW has recently aquired a ton of additional manufacturing and warehousing capacity in the UK and especially the US. Speculation has been the US is getting a FW mfg facility of its own.

Scripts
08-02-2012, 02:38 PM
I wonder if its cheaper/faster to ship kits from the US to Asia/Oceanic versus shipping them from UK...

Bigred
08-02-2012, 04:05 PM
@Scripts
Good question, From the Port of Los Angeles to Japan is certainly shorter than the UK to Japan. US manufacturing is out of Memphis - a Fedex hub, so its probably fairly fast to get from Tennessee to LA.

@Stickmonkey
Agreed completely sir. I would imagine that with the high profitability of the entire Forgeworld line, Games Workshop would be working overtime to set up a US manufacturing capability to cut out FW shipping costs. Heck the annual financials showed that almost all of that GW 2012 growth came out of the US market, while the rest of the world held fairly level. It would appear us American gamers have deeper pockets these days than our brethren over the pond. GW needs to provide a way to empty those pockets as efficiently as possible in the days ahead.

Gir
08-02-2012, 09:40 PM
I'm uncertain if any manufacturing occurs in Australia..

It does, based on some of the labeling of products here (There's two: "Product of Australia" & "Packaged in Australia").

Scripts
08-03-2012, 08:19 AM
It does, based on some of the labeling of products here (There's two: "Product of Australia" & "Packaged in Australia").

Interesting. Are they small kits (IE: Tau Troop pack) or the multi-part kits (IE: Orc Flyer)?

Gir
08-03-2012, 04:35 PM
Interesting. Are they small kits (IE: Tau Troop pack) or the multi-part kits (IE: Orc Flyer)?

I've seen it on Death company, Blood Angels battleforce and the Stormraven.

Packaged in Australia I've seen on some scenery kits.