Harry on the difficulty of Rumourmongering

[eldargal]

Following recent events ....

In an effort to show how tricky it is to predict anything very much with any accuracy and to demonstrate how much I get wrong. ....

What follows is what I put together back in September 2011 (from various snippets) and shared with some guys back in October ... it is more or less word for word.

You will see there are a lot of "?" in what follows.

I had heard some very dodgy rumours regarding 40K releases in January ... non of those happened.
Whilst I had Tau in as the first release of 2013 ... I also had it in with a ? against it in the first half of this year as I had heard this from a couple of people but was not convinced. I had heard March/April for Empire and was not sure which. LotR stuff started sooner than I thought. Next scenery came sooner than I thought. I had heard Eldar v's Chaos from two of the most reliable folks I ever hear stuff from .... but now it looks like that was wrong too .... (Never bet against hastings ... ever!) ... Read on.


"This is what I think is going on. (I put this together after GD)
You can see whilst I am confident of a release order ... it is a bit more tricky getting the month right.

Fantasy Release Order:
VC
Empire
WoC
Dwarves

40K Release Order:
Necrons
Chaos Space Marines. (Just before or right after 6th)
Eldar
Tau

Sisters of Battle, Black Templars and waves or bits and bobs for Necrons/Nids/SW and IG also being worked on or done that need releasing somewhere?

LotR
Hobbit and bunch of other stuff for LotR (including Legions etc).

2011
Nov : Necrons
Dec : Fantasy Terrain

2012
Jan : 40K Bits and Bobs. IG tank/T. Wolf cavaly/Finecast characters?
Feb : Vampire Counts (Jan Or Feb) New paints Necron 2nd wave? (or later)
Mar : Empire? Tau?
Apr : Tau? Empire? More fantasy scenery.
May : Tau? LotR stuff
Jun : Tau? Chaos Space Marines.
Jul : 6th edition.
Aug : Warriors of Chaos
Sep : Starter set : Eldar v’s Chaos?
Oct : First 6th edition release? Space Marines? (Collective assumtion ... I don't think so.) Chaos space marines? (My guess)
Nov : THE HOBBIT!!!! BLOODBOWL???
Eldar Second 6th edition release!
Dec :

2013

First 40K release of 2013 (Feb?) Tau.
More Nids Could be 2012 (Tervigon ??? Harpy??? I mentioned before)
Sisters of Battle. Could be in 2012? (Heard at one time they were to be the first 40K release of 2012)"

Obviously I now know lots of this was wrong ... but this is what I started with.
It is amazing I get anything right at all.

Still don't know what happened to Sisters of Battle. :D



I can't say anything without it being taken as fact .... when, in fact, I get it wrong a fair bit.



BRING IT ON! :D

I've bolded a few of the more pertinent points. I think this should be compulsory reading for anyone following the rumours and the recent spat about ghos21.

[DarkLink]

And this is why I never post anything like "this crap looks like wishlisting" after new rumors show up. New rumors gives you a bit of food for thought, and if something doesn't quite pan out as originally predicted then who really cares.

[eldargal]

Yep, by now you would have thought people on forums would have learnt what 'rumour' actually means. It doesn't mean 'this is what is going to happen without doubt'.:rolleyes:

[Deadlift]

What I enjoy about rumours is they keep part of the hobby interesting and the discussions constantly fresh, the news and rumours section of most forums seems to have the most interesting discussion. I like that. What I don't like is the nastiness rumours seem to generate in some people.
Posters who get abusive towards others because the army they want is " rumoured" not to be coming in ages but the other posters army is "rumoured" to be just around the corner. Arguments based on rumoured rules and units are also guaranteed to generate hostility in the threads especially towards the originator.
For me and I believe anyone sensible all rumours are fun to discuss and should all be taken with a pinch of salt. Sometimes when something new is released and not in the format expected (SoB) the hate pointed to not just GW but also the rumourmonger is just bewildering. I personally am thankful for any tidbit of info. It keeps the hobby interesting for me.

[Wildeybeast]

Rumours are just that, rumours. Not fact. People need to lighten up over them. It is common knowledge that GW deliberately leak half truths or tiny tidbits to people (mainly to Warseer) safe in the knowledge that it both generates hype whilst allowing people to add their own spin and allowing GW to keep exactly what they do under wraps. Why are people surprised when things don't pan out. I can get people being cheesed off and ghost jusy outright making stuff up, but otherwise the rumourmongers are just people playing chinese whispers. The internet really does need to lighten up a bit.

[lattd]

He may have got it wrong but if you look at the stuff he said he got wrong it was more date changes than anything, where as ghosts was completely wrong.

[flekkzo]

What I am curious of is what "sources" the rumor guys have. Phil Kelly? The Janitor? Warehouse guys? Hide in Bugmans at lunchtime?

I'm just curious, not trying to discredit anyone. Biggest reason I read the rumors is hoping to hear something new and cool and regardless if it comes true I get entertained.

The second reason is because I'm hoping that an army I'm interested will be updated. I haven't been through a new codex/army book of an army I play yet so I'm hoping C:SM and Skaven will be really good next time around :)

[Lockark]

It's important to keep track of who is giving the rumour, and how accurate they generally are. I generaly think harry dose get reasonably accurate info. But of course he dosen't get 100% accuret so as they say "take with your grain of salt".


The problem with people like ghost is they are wrong more times then they are right, anytime they were right it seems more like they were latching on to other people's rumors, and Ghost as done ALOT to discredit him self on alot of occuations. Ghost's recent spat isn't the 1st time something like this happened.

It's my honest opinion that the rumour community needs to be alot more weary of what rumours they are choosing to follow. I've been seeing people give Ghost21's and TheDarkGeneral's rumours allot more credit they they accully deserve ATM.

=/

Of course forming a angry internet mob shouldn't be the response, but IMHO that doesn't usely happen.

[GrenAcid]

Sup, I know it might be wrong topic but I didnt want to make new one for that.

Under todays Goatboy article about rumours on 40K, one dude wrote that GW is forbiden from anouncing relase cuz New line cinema deal on hobbit, whadaya think about this?

I simply dont belive someone is so stupid to sign contract limiting 40k when deal is hobbit minis.

[lattd]

Not stupid, the LOTR boom was massive so a small cut in rumours, which also means GW cant be moaned at when the rumours are wrong if there are no rumours in the first place. Plus if no one knows whats GW are producing next they may be tempted to start a new army rather than wait for their one to be updated.