Mathhammer and you.

[Slug]

I'm interested in a few things here. Firstly, do you use mathhammer, and if so, how much and for what purpose? as well as gauging if people would like to learn more about how to both do simple and more complex probability, and how to use and apply probability to a game.

If people are interested I will happily write up a small passage on probability (basic and binomial if your interested), but I won't bother if no will read it (simplifying binomial is a bit of an effort, though I'm happy to do it).

I personally use it allot when list building, both to work out how useful certain weapons are as well as what sort of impact a unit will have on other units in assault and shooting. It can give a good idea of the damage output of a unit as well as what sort of punishment it can take. Also, basic probability can be used on the fly in a game to work out whether a certain shot or charge is going to be worth it.

[Lore Weaver]

I love math-hammer. I've looked at one math-hammer problem and haven't started working it out yet.

Necron Overlord (BS4) shooting a Tachyon Arrow at a Vehicle with the assistance of a single re-roll from a Chronometron Cryptek.

Solve for
P(Wrecked/Destroyed AV 14)
P(Wrecked/Destroyed AV 13)
P(Wrecked/Destroyed AV 12)
P(Wrecked/Destroyed AV 11)
P(Wrecked/Destroyed AV 10)
P(Wrecked/Destroyed AV 10 open-topped)

[Slug]

88% chance of hitting, you then have to do multiple different solutions as you can use the reroll at different points. hence, if the reroll was used to achieve the 88% you have about 20% chance of destroying the target after hitting (as in hitting is not included in that). However, if the reroll is not used then you have the ability to reroll either the pen roll or the damage chart roll. having the ability to reroll, or otherwise add an extra step adds time, as for one problem multiple solutions have to be worked out.

[Wildeybeast]

I don't use it as I like themed army lists and prefer palyign for fun, but I would like to know more about it as I know people who use it and never really got it.

[DarkLink]

I'd say I'd read it, but I already know all about binomial theory and basic statistics. I do see so many people misunderstanding it that it would be nice to have a good explanation out there, though.

[Necron2.0]

I don't use it because I have degrees in mathematics and engineering.

[lobster-overlord]

"Math is hard!" -- Barbie

I agree

[BuFFo]

I care less about the cold, emotionless side of winning through statistics, and more about the warm, fun of making friends and making sure my opponent has a good time.

And if my opponent is all about mathhammer, he isn't having fun anyway because he always gets surprised when rolls don't go his way, or even come out average. When 4 out of his 5 termies roll a 1 and die, the drop look on his face means I need to make the game extra warm and inviting for him.

It's like caring for a toddler.

[Necron2.0]

I care less about the cold, emotionless side of winning through statistics, and more about the warm, fun of making friends and making sure my opponent has a good time.

The two aren't mutually exclusive, necessarily. In my case, creating a competitive list is all about not boring my opponent. Right now, I'm in the middle of crunching the numbers for the entire Necron codex. There's so much variability, I don't want to waste both time and money putting together a fluffy army my friends will mud-stomp in two turns. I already went that route with Dark Eldar in some ways. While a full-on blood bath is fun occasionally, for the emotionally stable gamer it gets old pretty quick.

[BuFFo]

The two aren't mutually exclusive, necessarily. In my case, creating a competitive list is all about not boring my opponent. Right now, I'm in the middle of crunching the numbers for the entire Necron codex. There's so much variability, I don't want to waste both time and money putting together a fluffy army my friends will mud-stomp in two turns. I already went that route with Dark Eldar in some ways. While a full-on blood bath is fun occasionally, for the emotionally stable gamer it gets old pretty quick.



I don't disagree, but your opinion doesn't change my life experiences over many years.

The kind of player that gets mad, frustrated, dejected and pissed is "nearly" always the player who banks on "trying to win" and using "math hammer".

When I play against people who play casually, when they lose models, hey don't really care, but math hammer fanatics throw fits or get visably sad when the odds of the dice don't go as they expected.

Casual player loses 4 terminators, bleh, it happens, now they sleep with the Emperor.

Mathhammer player loses 4 terminators, holy cow that is impossible! blah blah blah, and the b!tching doesn't stop, like, ever. I still hear about someone losing a land raider to an ork rocket years after it happened. get over it, seriously.

let me put it this way, if I had to choose between someone drinking a coke and smoking weed before we play a game and someone holding a calculator and 5 different math charts for various game occurrences, I'll choose the pot head every time.

[CrimsonTurkey]

I spend lots of time mathhammering in my head. This doesn't mean I'm not having fun and it sure as hell doesn't mean that I'm not playing a theme list. I also don't let myself get sad when I don't get what the mathhammer says I should. It's an average which means that it's a fairly good guideline to go by when calculating risk/reward which is really what any strategy game is all about.

[warpcrafter]

My dice fail me so often that I do not care what math-hammer says. I have gone through six sets of dice and I consistently roll only one hit out of three or four attacks for each powerklaw-armed nob in my Ork army, and one or two hits for a dozen dark lances in my Dark Eldar army. It's just my fate, so I concentrate on playing for fun.

[Rapture]

Mathhammer player loses 4 terminators, holy cow that is impossible! blah blah blah, and the b!tching doesn't stop, like, ever.


If that play was a true "mathhammer player" then he would know that losing four terminators is far from statistically impossible.

[CrimsonTurkey]

My dice fail me so often that I do not care what math-hammer says. I have gone through six sets of dice and I consistently roll only one hit out of three or four attacks for each powerklaw-armed nob in my Ork army, and one or two hits for a dozen dark lances in my Dark Eldar army. It's just my fate, so I concentrate on playing for fun.

How big are your dice? Yes, it does matter.

[BuFFo]

If that play was a true "mathhammer player" then he would know that losing four terminators is far from statistically impossible.

Hyperbole. Fun for the whole family.

[eldargal]

Mathammer is a useful tool and nothing more. I use it to figure out what the odds of doing certain things with certain units but I don't base armies around it or get cranky when a unit doesn't perform the way Mathammer says it should.

[Necron2.0]

Statistics in general are fine, but should never replace common sense, and can never replace superior tactics and maneuver. Or, as a former boss once put it, "If statistics worked like they are used, then you should be able to put your head in the freezer, your feet in the oven, and be perfectly comfortable."

[Slug]

I'll post this up late tomorrow, just to make a few quick points and replies though. Firstly Buffo, I'm no tournament player, mostly because I can't paint fast enough to ever finish an army/ lack of time/ being in AUS. So, I agree, people who sit down and work out every move by working out the chances of certain things happening are missing some of the fun of the game. I'm just to sort of person who goes, despite the fact that each squad of guard are only likely to kill about one marine a turn, I'm fairly sure a good assault will take care of anything, or RUN AWAY:eek:.

However for others, it is a useful tool for tournament play as it allows you to gauge the effectiveness of certain units against other units, allowing you to prioritize your shooting and assaults based off of averages and hence know what units are best suited to certain tasks. However it also requires the application of thought to your game, it's just another tool to allow you to work out your tactics better, not tell you what to do, positioning and such are still key.

I will address three main points. How to do probability, both very basic things as well as a few tips to working through tougher problems like Lore Weaver's, trees are your friends ;). Secondly, I will demonstrate how binomial graphs present a better picture of how likely different results are as compared to the single number that basic probability gives though I wont teach it unless people really want to know (the maths is much more complex then the basic stuff which is very simple and only requires a calculator and knowing where your buttons are). Lastly, I will talk about how to apply what I have shown in this, I won't give tactical advice about anything, just how to make use of the extra knowledge you gain from knowing a few probabilities. A dip into statistics may or may not make its way in, I will admit I have done no stat courses so I'm bit hesitant to say anything on that topic,though if I do, it will be after some (much) research, don't worry though, I do know what I'm talking about when it comes to the probability.

[Uncle Nutsy]

mathhammer.

blah.

I'm glad to see some people get use out of it, but personally I'd rather do the mathhammering in my head, while also thinking what tactics I'm going to use. I can calculate the combat effectiveness faster than most people can do it using a calculator. Simply because I broke it down to it's essence, which is 'how much of a chance do I have to kill my target?'

I got a Str5 weapon with an AP of 5 for example. I look at what i'm going to shoot at... say it's a tank. Am I facing the rear armor or front? the rear? well, I have a decent chance of glancing it, but i'd rather use my bigger guns for that.

What's my next target? that toughness 7 thing over there? hmm, same chance as that tank. screw it, what's the next target?

those ten T4 guys there with an armor save of 5? and there's about ten of em there? yeah i think I can take down about half of em from one salvo. let er rip! but first, i'll use this nice Str7 blast first, to wittle em down.

But in all fairness, I like to let the dice do the talking...

"I'll choose the pot head every time." ooh! ooh! let's have a game after I finish this joint. :)

[warpcrafter]

How big are your dice? Yes, it does matter.

What does the size of the dice have to do with it?

[eldargal]

I've been told the size and quality of the dice can affect their balance and thus the outcome of the roll. For small dice the engineering as to be of higher quality to get the balance right and often it isn;t so bigger dice =more even distribution of results. I've no idea how accurate it is, but I do make sure ot buy quality dice.

[Wolfshade]

Yes, smaller dice means that any imperfections in them are in effect magnified. So smaller dice need a higher qualtiy of production. I'm not sure how much of a difference this would really bring.

In terms of using Mathammer, I suppose I do do quick calculations in my head like do I shoot then assault a target or do I just assault as I would like to remain engaged during my opponets turn.

[CrimsonTurkey]

Yeah, those small GW dice roll 20% 1s. Yup, your six sided die has a one in five chance of turning up "1."

[Necron2.0]

I bought some casino dice for rolling morale, drift offset, and the to-hit and wounds for my ICs. Casino dice are (by law) required to be as close to a 1/6 chance per facing as is humanly possible. I roll normal GW dice for my bulk troops. The volume of dice I'm rolling in those cases means that (theoretically) the inherent imperfections will balance themselves out.

[Uncle Nutsy]

Yes, smaller dice means that any imperfections in them are in effect magnified. So smaller dice need a higher qualtiy of production. I'm not sure how much of a difference this would really bring.

heh. I remember having a set of small dice from GW. They all ended up on the highway after awhile. ;)

[doom-kitten]

I don't disagree, but your opinion doesn't change my life experiences over many years.

The kind of player that gets mad, frustrated, dejected and pissed is "nearly" always the player who banks on "trying to win" and using "math hammer".

When I play against people who play casually, when they lose models, hey don't really care, but math hammer fanatics throw fits or get visably sad when the odds of the dice don't go as they expected.

Casual player loses 4 terminators, bleh, it happens, now they sleep with the Emperor.

Mathhammer player loses 4 terminators, holy cow that is impossible! blah blah blah, and the b!tching doesn't stop, like, ever. I still hear about someone losing a land raider to an ork rocket years after it happened. get over it, seriously.

let me put it this way, if I had to choose between someone drinking a coke and smoking weed before we play a game and someone holding a calculator and 5 different math charts for various game occurrences, I'll choose the pot head every time.

Pretty much spells it out, eh. Never understood mathhammer or really cared to know, few times someone I've played has used it, it well never works and they get frustrated and blame design flaws in their dice, sometimes they blame my dice too. Math may be fun for some people but game wise I prefer keeping it to army list creation keeps things simple and causes less headaches and stress but meh whatever floats your boat.

[Bean]

Pretty much spells it out, eh. Never understood mathhammer or really cared to know, few times someone I've played has used it, it well never works and they get frustrated and blame design flaws in their dice, sometimes they blame my dice too. Math may be fun for some people but game wise I prefer keeping it to army list creation keeps things simple and causes less headaches and stress but meh whatever floats your boat.

I think most people use math for list building more than during actual play, which makes sense, since most people aren't good enough at the math to do it in their heads at the table.