Is it time to go into the fallout shelter?

[Necron2.0]

I got a little freaked out over the weekend, because while surfing I ran across an article that said the Yellowstone Caldera had risen 10 feet and scientists were concerned an eruption was imminent. I didn’t initially see they meant it had risen 10 feet since 1966, and their concerns were prior to further research.

Yellowstone is something I like to keep track of, because when it erupts … basically the world ends. It will for me and mine, at least. It’ll be TPK for everyone west of the Rocky Mountains, and probably for everyone west of the Appalachians. As one scientist put it, “If you live in the US and enjoy breathing, the day Yellowstone erupts is going to be a bad day for you.” Of course, every group of peoples who rely on US grain to survive will be dead in short order. And the subsequent ice age won’t be much fun for those left around either.

The last time something like Yellowstone erupted, supposedly the world wide human population dropped from several million to less than 2000 mating pairs. That eruption was supposedly three-fourths the size what they’re expecting Yellowstone to do, and supposedly we’re overdue. Now, I’ve heard a number of folks tell me not to worry because we’re far more advanced than those humans were 70,000 years ago. My answer to them has been, “Can you make fire? Can you locate drinkable water in the wilds? Can you hunt? Can you fish? Can you grow crops? Can you preserve food? Can you make your own clothes? Sure, the last super volcano eruption was in the stone age, but guess what – 24 hours after Yellowstone blows, WE will be in the stone age.”

[DarkLink]

Can you make fire? Can you locate drinkable water in the wilds? Can you hunt? Can you fish? Can you preserve food? Can you make your own clothes?

I can :D

[eldargal]

Attended a seminar at Oxford about supervolcanos a few years ago by some vulcanologist who works at Yellowstone. I can only remember the gist of it:

Yellowstone is not overdue, with only three supereruptions with two intervals it is impossible to say when, or indeed if, it will erupt on such a spectacular scale again.

He spent about ten minutes grumbling that there was no such thing as 'overdue' with volcanos, and about television documentary sensationalism.

[Denzark]

Clearly Necron's problem was trying to read while surfing...

[Emerald Rose Widow]

My answer to them has been, “Can you make fire? Can you locate drinkable water in the wilds? Can you hunt? Can you fish? Can you grow crops? Can you preserve food? Can you make your own clothes? Sure, the last super volcano eruption was in the stone age, but guess what – 24 hours after Yellowstone blows, WE will be in the stone age.”



I can do all of those things, doing it from scratch aint fun, but it can be done. Gotta love my camping experiennce when i was young, and im talking real camping not just going to some camping site, hehe.

[Col.Gravis]

I can :D


I can do all of those things, doing it from scratch aint fun, but it can be done. Gotta love my camping experiennce when i was young, and im talking real camping not just going to some camping site, hehe.

With respect, there are plenty of people who can do those things, but it's one thing to be doing them for a week or two camping, then returning to normality, quite another to be reduced to living that way for years exposed to the elements. Nobody can say with any degree of certainty that they'd even manage in that situation, though granted you might better then some.

That said, its not something to be worried about really, because its not something we can do anything about, nor predict accurately in anyway shape or form, it could happen tomorrow, but it might not happen for 10,000 years yet.

[Drew da Destroya]

I'm not going to have to make fire or food. I plan on immediately strapping on mismatched sports equipment, grabbing my movie replica battleaxe, and joining up with the first warlord I come across. At that point, my needs will be met by looting, pillaging, and conquering. At some point I'll probably die in glorious battle over the last container of Pringles in warehouse somewhere, but it'll be a glorious two weeks.

[Necron2.0]

Yellowstone is not overdue, with only three supereruptions with two intervals it is impossible to say when, or indeed if, it will erupt on such a spectacular scale again.

Ask three experts their opinion on something, chances are you'll get more than three answers. "Scientists" routinely make sweeping generalizations based on scant data, sometimes with as few as one data point. Archeology is particularly guilty of this. Be that as it may, the truth is the "experts" do not know what's going on with Yellowstone. Right now the only thing they have are opinions. All they know is the confirmed cycle of major eruptions is between 600,000 to 800,000 years. The last eruption was 640,000 years ago. Since then, the volcano has had 80 other less dramatic events ... less dramatic than total apocalypse, that is. In 2010 scientists recorded unprecedented seismic activity in the caldera. Based on the established cycle they're guessing that this is nothing to worry about, but that's the point - they do not know. As such, the pronouncements of the skeptics strike me very much like the priests of old standing on Vesuvius shouting to the people "The gods love Pompeii!" Of course, the doomsayers haven't proven themselves Delphian Oracles either. Both are equally inaccurate.

For myself, I'm not packing up and moving to Australia, but it is something I intend to remain informed about, just in case the skeptics have an "oh crap" moment.

[DarkLink]

With earthquakes and volcanoes, there really isn't an accurate way of measuring when the next one will occur until it starts to go. But you can predict the probability of something happening to a certain degree of accuracy, and so you end up with probabilities of exceedance. In the USA, most buildings are designed to withstand an earthquake that has a 2% chance of occurring in any given 50 year period, for example.

So, talk of being "overdue" isn't just something one scientist says and another disagrees with. It's simply not how probability works. Scientists don't seriously talk about earthquakes being overdue, I know for a fact, and volcanoes are pretty similar to earthquakes in enough ways that I am confidant when I say that they aren't discussed in that way either.

It isn't so much an inaccurate statement as a nonsensical one. It's like showing up to a soccer game and asking how many touchdowns the teams have made. It just doesn't make sense to people who actually know what they're talking about.


Attended a seminar at Oxford about supervolcanos a few years ago by some vulcanologist who works at Yellowstone. I can only remember the gist of it:

Yellowstone is not overdue, with only three supereruptions with two intervals it is impossible to say when, or indeed if, it will erupt on such a spectacular scale again.

He spent about ten minutes grumbling that there was no such thing as 'overdue' with volcanos, and about television documentary sensationalism.

Exactly. Earthquake and volcano data is based primarily on past eruptions. For a given area of earth, an engineer could calculate the probability that an earthquake of a particular magnitude could occur. From what I understand of geology, it's reasonably similar with volcanoes, if not precisely the same.

With so little data about yellowstone eruptions, there's not really an accurate way of measuring that with any confidence. And since probability doesn't work on a schedule...


With respect, there are plenty of people who can do those things, but it's one thing to be doing them for a week or two camping, then returning to normality, quite another to be reduced to living that way for years exposed to the elements.

Camping is for wusses. If you can't carry it on your back, don't take it:p.

Anyways, food and non-contaminated water is the only real short term problem. Food availability depends heavily on where you live, and keep in mind that if the volcano kills off 90% of humans it will probably kill off a similar amount of the deer, plants, and other sources of food.

Water is also dependent on where you are, but unless you live in arid areas it's fairly common, and easy to treat. But again, if all the rivers are clogged with soot or something, then filtering water gets pretty tough.

[Necron2.0]

So, talk of being "overdue" isn't just something one scientist says and another disagrees with. It's simply not how probability works. Scientists don't seriously talk about earthquakes being overdue ....


Um, I must disagree. Scientists routinely talk about events being overdue, particularly seismic events. Recently Bradford Hager of MIT stated California is overdue for a major earthquake (see>>here<< (http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/3q-haiti-earthquakes.html)). When something is known to be cyclic (such as seismic events) or if the causes of an event can be observed (such as seismic events) or where the processes can be mathematically modelled ( such as ... well, you get the picture), scientists routinely assess probabilities of an event occurring (such as the 2% chance of an eruption over 50 years you mentioned). Based on the data, the actual chance of Yellowstone erupting anytime soon appears somewhat low (after all 640,000 years is the low end of the scale - I'm not going to work out the normal distribution but it appears we're at least one sigma out from the median), but that doesn't mean it definitively won't happen. Like I said, I'm not packing up the kids, but I do want to be informed.

[DarkLink]

The 'overdue' thing is something for sensationalism and newscasters. Some scientists might make use of it, but it really, really isn't correct. Or, really, not precisely incorrect so much as it is irrelevant.


If you pick up a dice and roll it, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling a '1'. It doesn't matter if you just rolled a 1 previously, or if you rolled a 6, or if you rolled 10 1's in a row, or a thousand 1's in a row. The probability of rolling a 1 is still 1/6.

So saying you're 'overdue' to roll a 1 after not doing so for a while is a casual but nonsensical phrase. Statistically, it has no meaning. You are no more likely to roll a 1 after not rolling a 1 than if you did roll a 1.


Basically, saying we're 'overdue' only means that yellowstone hasn't blown up in a while. Beyond that, it has no meaning. It doesn't mean it is more likely to explode, it doesn't mean we need to start worrying or panicking. That's why the phrase isn't particularly important.